基于ODD框架的农户有限理性决策模型的构建及模拟——以陕西省米脂县马蹄洼村为例

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英文篇名：THE CONSTRUCTURE AND SIMULATION OF THE BOUNDED RATIONILTY OF THE FARMER HOUSEHOLD'S DECISION MAKING BASED ON THE ODD STRUCTURE——A CASE STUDY OF MATIWA VILLAGE OF MIZHI COUNTY OF SHAANXI PROVNICE 作者：毛南赵 ; 梁小英 ; 段宁 ; 商舒涵 英文作者：Maonan Zhao;Liang Xiaoying;Duan Ning;Shang Shuhan;College of Urban and Environmental Science,Northwest University;Key Laboratory of Surface System and Environmental Carrying Capacity of Shaanxi Province; 关键词：ODD框架 ; 有限理性 ; 农户行为 ; HBRDM模型 ; Netlogo 英文关键词：ODD structure;;the bounded rationality;;land use decision-making of farmer household;;HBRDM model;;Netlogo 中文刊名：ZGNZ 英文刊名：Chinese Journal of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning 机构：西北大学城市与环境学院;陕西省地表系统与环境承载力重点实验室; 出版日期：2018-05-25 出版单位：中国农业资源与区划 年：2018 期：v.39;No.245 基金：国家自然科学基金项目“生态脆弱区土地利用功能变化及农户响应研究——以陕西省米脂县为例”(41671086);国家自然科学基金项目“生态脆弱区土地集约利用模拟研究——以陕西省米脂县为例”(41271103) 语种：中文; 页：ZGNZ201805022 页数：9 CN：05 ISSN：11-3513/S 分类号：169-176+223

摘要

目前,基于行为理论探讨宏观土地利用格局变化的微观主体行为变化机理研究已成为国内外学者关注的焦点之一。[目的]为了揭示生态脆弱区土地利用格局变化的微观驱动机制,且为了增强与相似研究的可比性,构建微观主体有限理性决策模型,提高对现实主体行为的解释力。[方法]文章遵循ODD框架,综合考虑能力和资源指数及农户间相互作用等多种因素对农户行为的影响,基于BDI行为理论构建HBRDM农户有限理性决策模型,结合Netlogo模拟平台对农户土地利用决策行为进行模拟。[结论](1)HBRDM模型可有效地表征研究区农户有限理性土地利用行为决策;(2)"刚性"的模拟规则和种植的随机性是造成模拟失误的主要原因;(3)基于ODD框架构建的HBRDM模型,有利于不同研究的对比,方便学者的阅读和理解,同时易于看清文章的逻辑和框架。最后指出该研究在市场和政策影响、社会规范和合作组织等方面的不足,并进一步指出今后的研究方向。
        At present,the researches on the micro driving mechanism of the macro land use change have been the focus. In order to reveal the actual farmer households' land use decision-making,compare the different similar researches,further reveal their bounded rationality between the micro and macro mechanism of farmers' behavior of land use change,this paper constructed the Household Bounded Rationality Decision-making Model( HBRDM)after considering the Capability and Resource index and the interaction among the different farmer households based on the ODD model structure. The land use behavior of farmer households was simulated based on the Netlogo platform. The results showed that:( 1) The land use decision-making of the farmer households was effectively simulated by HBRDM model;( 2) The main reasons of the simulation error were the rigid rule for the cropland conversion and the randomness for planting;( 3) The ODD structure had great contribution for the comparison of the different researches,the reading and understanding of the papers. Finally,it pointed out the trend and the fault of HBRDM model.

引文

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