基于CBDI的农户耕地撂荒行为模型构建及模拟研究——以陕西省米脂县冯阳坬村为例
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摘要
目前,建立于复杂性科学基础上的多智能体模型(MAS)已成为模拟研究土地利用变化的重要方法。论文在MAS理论之上,构建一个基于Category-Belief-Desire-Intention(CBDI)决策结构的MAS模型,结合Net Logo软件平台,模拟分析农户Agent土地利用行为,并将结果与Belief-Desire-Intention(BDI)模型进行比较。论文以陕西省米脂县冯阳坬村为例进行研究,分析结果表明:1)通过对基于CBDI的MAS模型验证(模型精度为87.19%),相比于传统的BDI决策模型精度有所提高;2)Net Logo平台能够展示农户决策的过程,直观地显示MAS模型的模拟结果;3)不同类型农户耕地撂荒的主要原因有所不同,该村种植户撂荒的主要因素为地理环境认知的差异和其他类农户的影响。有待进一步解决的问题:1)不同类Agent相互影响及其量化;2)高精度基础数据的获取和梯田DEM的引入。
Recently, Multi-agent system(MAS), based on the theory of the complexity science,is one of the important methods in the study of LUCC. In this paper, a Category-Belief-DesireIntention(CBDI) decision-making model based on MAS was constructed. The paper takes the Fengyanggua Village in Mizhi County, Shaanxi Province as an example. The land abandonment behaviors of farmer households were simulated and analyzed based on the Net Logo platform. The Belief- Desire- Intention(BDI) model was also applied. The results of CBDI model and BDI model are compared. Several conclusions were drawn: 1) Compared to the BDI model, the CBDI model(simulation accuracy is 87.19%) improves the accuracy of simulation. 2) The decision making process of farmer households can be shown on Net Logo platform, and the simulation results can give an explicit spatial result. 3) Though the reasons of farmers' abandoning the land are different, the main reasons are the differences of geographical cognitive and the effects of other farmer households. In the future, some issues should be resolved: 1) the interaction among different kinds of farmer households should be focused and quantified; 2) highly accurate data resources are needed in order to improve the model precision, such as the terrace DEM.
Recently, Multi-agent system(MAS), based on the theory of the complexity science,is one of the important methods in the study of LUCC. In this paper, a Category-Belief-DesireIntention(CBDI) decision-making model based on MAS was constructed. The paper takes the Fengyanggua Village in Mizhi County, Shaanxi Province as an example. The land abandonment behaviors of farmer households were simulated and analyzed based on the Net Logo platform. The Belief- Desire- Intention(BDI) model was also applied. The results of CBDI model and BDI model are compared. Several conclusions were drawn: 1) Compared to the BDI model, the CBDI model(simulation accuracy is 87.19%) improves the accuracy of simulation. 2) The decision making process of farmer households can be shown on Net Logo platform, and the simulation results can give an explicit spatial result. 3) Though the reasons of farmers' abandoning the land are different, the main reasons are the differences of geographical cognitive and the effects of other farmer households. In the future, some issues should be resolved: 1) the interaction among different kinds of farmer households should be focused and quantified; 2) highly accurate data resources are needed in order to improve the model precision, such as the terrace DEM.
引文
[1]黄河清,潘理虎,王强,等.基于农户行为的土地利用人工社会模型的构造与应用[J].自然资源学报,2010,25(3):353-367.[HUANG H Q,PAN L H,WANG Q,et al.An artificial society model of land use change in terms of households behaviors:Model development and application.Journal of Natural Resources,2010,25(3):353-367.]
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[6]赵连武,谢永生,王继军,等.陕西省米脂县耕地动态变化与粮食安全研究[J].水土保持通报,2008,29(4):143-148.[ZHAO L W,XIE Y S,WANG J J,et al.Cultivated land dynamic change and grain security in Mizhi County of Shaanxi Province.Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation,2008,29(4):143-148.]
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[8]田光进,邬建国.基于智能体模型的土地利用动态模拟研究进展[J].生态学报,2008,28(9):4451-4459.[TIAN G J,WU J G.Simulating land use change with agent-based models:Progress and prospects.Acta Ecologica Sinica,2008,28(9):4451-4459.]
[9]余强毅,吴文斌,唐华俊,等.复杂系统理论与Agent模型在土地变化科学中的研究进展[J].地理学报,2001,66(11):1518-1530.[YU Q Y,WU W B,TANG H J,et al.Complex system theory and agent-based modeling:Progresses in land change science.Acta Geographica Sinica,2001,66(11):1518-1530.]
[10]陈海,杨维鸽,梁小英,等.基于Multi-Agent System的多尺度土地利用变化模型的构建与模拟[J].地理研究,2010,29(8):1519-1527.[CHEN H,YANG W G,LIANG X Y,et al.Multi-scale modeling of land use based on the MAS from field to village:A case study for Mengcha Village of Mizhi County of Shaanxi Province.Geographical Research,2010,29(8):1519-1527.]
[11]陈海,郗静,梁小英,等.农户土地利用行为对退耕还林政策的响应模拟[J].地理科学进展,2013,32(8):1246-1256.[CHEN H,XI J,LIANG X Y,et al.Simulation of the changes of farmer households’land-use behaviors in response to China’s Grain to Green policy.Progress in Geography,2013,32(8):1246-1256.]
[12]BERT F E,PODESTáG P,ROVERE S L,et al.An agent based model to simulate structural and land use changes in agricultural systems of the argentine pampas[J].Ecological Modelling,2011,222(19):3486-3499.
[13]LIGTENBERG A,BREGT A K,LAMMEREN R V.Multi-actor-based land use modelling:Spatial planning using agents[J].Landscape and Urban Planning,2001,56(1/2):21-33.
[14]季民河,MONTICINO M,ACEVED M.基于多代理模型的城市土地利用博弈模拟[J].地理研究,2009,28(1):85-96.[JI M H,MONTICINO M,ACEVED M.Multi-agent based modeling of land-use decision making process in a democratic setting.Geographical Research,2009,28(1):85-96.]
[15]NORLING E J.Modelling Human Behaviour with BDI Agents[D].Melbourne:University of Melbourne,2009.
[16]BERGER T.Agent-based spatial models applied to agriculture:A simulation tool for technology diffusion,resource use changes and policy analysis[J].Agricultural Economics,2001,25(2/3):245-260.
[17]陈海,王涛,梁小英,等.基于MAS的农户土地利用模型构建与模拟——以陕西省米脂县孟岔村为例[J].地理学报,2009,64(12):1448-1456.[CHEN H,WANG T,LIANG X Y,et al.Simulation and application of household’s LUCC based on a multi-agent system:A case study for Mengcha Village of Mizhi County of Shaanxi Province.Acta Geographica Sinica,2009,64(12):1448-1456.]
[18]康小强,石纯一.基于BDI的多Agent交互[J].计算机学报,1990,22(11):1166-1171.[TANG X Q,SHI C Y.Multiagent interaction based on BDI.Chinese Journal of Computers,1990,22(11):1166-1171.]
[19]BALKE T,GILBERT N.How do agents make decisions?A survey[J].Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation,2014,17(4):1-43.
[20]WILENSKY U.Net Logo[EB/OL].http://ccl.northwestern.edu/netlogo/.Center for Connected Learning and ComputerBased Modeling,Northwestern University,Evanston,IL,1999.
[21]马巧云,陈学广.一种基于BDI的理性决策模型[J].平顶山学院学报,2005,20(2):26-30.[MA Q Y,CHEN X G.A rational decision-making model based on BDI.Journal of Pingdingshan University,2005,20(2):26-30.
[22]BOCKSTAEL N E.Modeling economics and ecology:The importance of a spatial perspective[J].American Journal of Agricultural Economics,1996,78:1168-1180.
[23]EVANS T P,KELLEY H.Multi-scale analysis of a household level agent-based model of landcover change[J].Journal of Environmental Management,2004,72(1/2):57-72.
[24]WOOLDRIDGE M,JENNINGS N R.Intelligent agents theory and practice[J].The Knowledge Engineering Review,1995,10(2):115-152.
[25]冯鹏飞,王涛,刘佺,等.居住位置和地块位置相邻关系对农户土地利用决策的影响[J].安徽农业科学,2013,41(32):12735-12737.[FENG P F,WANG T,LIU Q,et al.Influence of neighborhood of buildings and parcels to farmer’s decision-making.Journal of Anhui Agricultural Science,2013,41(32):12735-12737.]
[2]李秀彬.土地利用变化的解释[J].地理科学进展,2002,21(3):195-203.[LI X B.Explanation of land use changes.Progress in Geography,2002,21(3):195-203.]
[3]邵晓梅,刘庆,张衍毓.土地集约利用的研究进展及展望[J].地理科学进展,2006,25(2):85-94.[SHAO X M,LIU Q,ZHANG Y Y.Advances and expectations of intensive land use researches.Progress in Geography,2006,25(2):85-94.]
[4]陈瑜琦,李秀彬.1980年以来中国耕地利用集约度的结构特征[J].地理学报,2009,64(4):469-478.[CHEN Y Q,LI X B.Structural change of agricultural land use intensity and its regional disparity in China.Acta Geographica Sinica,2009,64(4):469-478.]
[5]朱会义,李秀彬,辛良杰.现阶段我国耕地利用集约度变化及其政策启示[J].自然资源学报,2007,22(6):907-915.[ZHU H Y,LI X B,XIN L J.Intensity change in cultivated land use in China and its policy implications.Journal of Natural Resources,2007,22(6):907-915.]
[6]赵连武,谢永生,王继军,等.陕西省米脂县耕地动态变化与粮食安全研究[J].水土保持通报,2008,29(4):143-148.[ZHAO L W,XIE Y S,WANG J J,et al.Cultivated land dynamic change and grain security in Mizhi County of Shaanxi Province.Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation,2008,29(4):143-148.]
[7]张斌,徐邓耀,翟有龙,等.耕地抛荒的定量化评价方法[J].贵州农业科学,2003,31(5):43-45.[ZHANG B,XU D Y,ZHAI Y L,et al.The evaluation indexes and its applications of disused arable lands.Guizhou Agricultural Sciences,2003,31(5):43-45.]
[8]田光进,邬建国.基于智能体模型的土地利用动态模拟研究进展[J].生态学报,2008,28(9):4451-4459.[TIAN G J,WU J G.Simulating land use change with agent-based models:Progress and prospects.Acta Ecologica Sinica,2008,28(9):4451-4459.]
[9]余强毅,吴文斌,唐华俊,等.复杂系统理论与Agent模型在土地变化科学中的研究进展[J].地理学报,2001,66(11):1518-1530.[YU Q Y,WU W B,TANG H J,et al.Complex system theory and agent-based modeling:Progresses in land change science.Acta Geographica Sinica,2001,66(11):1518-1530.]
[10]陈海,杨维鸽,梁小英,等.基于Multi-Agent System的多尺度土地利用变化模型的构建与模拟[J].地理研究,2010,29(8):1519-1527.[CHEN H,YANG W G,LIANG X Y,et al.Multi-scale modeling of land use based on the MAS from field to village:A case study for Mengcha Village of Mizhi County of Shaanxi Province.Geographical Research,2010,29(8):1519-1527.]
[11]陈海,郗静,梁小英,等.农户土地利用行为对退耕还林政策的响应模拟[J].地理科学进展,2013,32(8):1246-1256.[CHEN H,XI J,LIANG X Y,et al.Simulation of the changes of farmer households’land-use behaviors in response to China’s Grain to Green policy.Progress in Geography,2013,32(8):1246-1256.]
[12]BERT F E,PODESTáG P,ROVERE S L,et al.An agent based model to simulate structural and land use changes in agricultural systems of the argentine pampas[J].Ecological Modelling,2011,222(19):3486-3499.
[13]LIGTENBERG A,BREGT A K,LAMMEREN R V.Multi-actor-based land use modelling:Spatial planning using agents[J].Landscape and Urban Planning,2001,56(1/2):21-33.
[14]季民河,MONTICINO M,ACEVED M.基于多代理模型的城市土地利用博弈模拟[J].地理研究,2009,28(1):85-96.[JI M H,MONTICINO M,ACEVED M.Multi-agent based modeling of land-use decision making process in a democratic setting.Geographical Research,2009,28(1):85-96.]
[15]NORLING E J.Modelling Human Behaviour with BDI Agents[D].Melbourne:University of Melbourne,2009.
[16]BERGER T.Agent-based spatial models applied to agriculture:A simulation tool for technology diffusion,resource use changes and policy analysis[J].Agricultural Economics,2001,25(2/3):245-260.
[17]陈海,王涛,梁小英,等.基于MAS的农户土地利用模型构建与模拟——以陕西省米脂县孟岔村为例[J].地理学报,2009,64(12):1448-1456.[CHEN H,WANG T,LIANG X Y,et al.Simulation and application of household’s LUCC based on a multi-agent system:A case study for Mengcha Village of Mizhi County of Shaanxi Province.Acta Geographica Sinica,2009,64(12):1448-1456.]
[18]康小强,石纯一.基于BDI的多Agent交互[J].计算机学报,1990,22(11):1166-1171.[TANG X Q,SHI C Y.Multiagent interaction based on BDI.Chinese Journal of Computers,1990,22(11):1166-1171.]
[19]BALKE T,GILBERT N.How do agents make decisions?A survey[J].Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation,2014,17(4):1-43.
[20]WILENSKY U.Net Logo[EB/OL].http://ccl.northwestern.edu/netlogo/.Center for Connected Learning and ComputerBased Modeling,Northwestern University,Evanston,IL,1999.
[21]马巧云,陈学广.一种基于BDI的理性决策模型[J].平顶山学院学报,2005,20(2):26-30.[MA Q Y,CHEN X G.A rational decision-making model based on BDI.Journal of Pingdingshan University,2005,20(2):26-30.
[22]BOCKSTAEL N E.Modeling economics and ecology:The importance of a spatial perspective[J].American Journal of Agricultural Economics,1996,78:1168-1180.
[23]EVANS T P,KELLEY H.Multi-scale analysis of a household level agent-based model of landcover change[J].Journal of Environmental Management,2004,72(1/2):57-72.
[24]WOOLDRIDGE M,JENNINGS N R.Intelligent agents theory and practice[J].The Knowledge Engineering Review,1995,10(2):115-152.
[25]冯鹏飞,王涛,刘佺,等.居住位置和地块位置相邻关系对农户土地利用决策的影响[J].安徽农业科学,2013,41(32):12735-12737.[FENG P F,WANG T,LIU Q,et al.Influence of neighborhood of buildings and parcels to farmer’s decision-making.Journal of Anhui Agricultural Science,2013,41(32):12735-12737.]
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