基于模糊事故树的施工现场地下管线泄漏风险分析
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摘要
针对施工引起的城市地下管线泄漏风险事故频发这一现实问题,考虑施工过程所具有的复杂性和不确定性,提出基于模糊事故树的施工现场地下管线泄漏风险分析方法。对近年城市地下管线泄漏事故资料原因进行统计,根据管线破坏的4种不同情形,从"人-机-料-法-环"着手对"施工现场地下管线泄漏风险事故"进行原因分析并建立事故树。在此基础上结合工程实例引入模糊理论进行定量分析,根据最小割集和结构重要度排序找出该项目引发地下管线泄漏风险事故的主要原因,通过计算顶事件和中间事件发生概率,判断该项目地下管线泄漏风险处于中等风险范围,并提出相应的对策。结果表明,基于模糊事故树的施工现场地下管线泄漏风险分析方法是可行的。
In view of the highly frequent accidents of urban underground pipeline leakage due to the complexity and uncertainty in the construction process,a risk analysis of the underground pipeline leakage in engineering construction is proposed based on fuzzy fault tree in this paper. In doing so,four different ways of pipeline damage is classified through the statistical analysis of the likely causes of such leakage accidents in recent years at first. Then the cause analysis of the top event‘underground pipeline leakage accident in construction'is carried out based on the‘human-machine-material-method-environment'system,as the fault tree is established. Furthermore,the fuzzy method is introduced to conduct the quantitative analysis by taking ‘Line 4 of Changsha Subway'as an application case. The minimal cut sets and the coefficients for the structure importance intend to show the principal causes leading to the pipeline leakage,particularly,during the period of construction,when such accidents take placemore often due to ‘the shortage of dynamic information feedback of regular deformation inspection of the pipelines and the surrounding soil '. ‘The ineffective inspection and supervision on the site',‘failure to establish an emergency rescue mechanism'in addition to ‘the lack of efficient protection of the pipelines,such as the soil reinforcement or isolation etc. 'should be responsible for such events. The calculation and the evaluation results of the leakage accidents indicate that the risk situation faced by the underground pipeline leakage of the said construction project can be attributed to the medium level,which is in accord with the actual situation of the project. To answer to the need for improvement, the following corresponding countermeasures have been proposed based on the above analysis. The results show that the fuzzy fault tree method turns to be suitable and applicable to the purpose. And,the study can help to lay a scientific basis for the safety management of such construction companies and enterprises in safety protection of urban underground pipeline systems.
In view of the highly frequent accidents of urban underground pipeline leakage due to the complexity and uncertainty in the construction process,a risk analysis of the underground pipeline leakage in engineering construction is proposed based on fuzzy fault tree in this paper. In doing so,four different ways of pipeline damage is classified through the statistical analysis of the likely causes of such leakage accidents in recent years at first. Then the cause analysis of the top event‘underground pipeline leakage accident in construction'is carried out based on the‘human-machine-material-method-environment'system,as the fault tree is established. Furthermore,the fuzzy method is introduced to conduct the quantitative analysis by taking ‘Line 4 of Changsha Subway'as an application case. The minimal cut sets and the coefficients for the structure importance intend to show the principal causes leading to the pipeline leakage,particularly,during the period of construction,when such accidents take placemore often due to ‘the shortage of dynamic information feedback of regular deformation inspection of the pipelines and the surrounding soil '. ‘The ineffective inspection and supervision on the site',‘failure to establish an emergency rescue mechanism'in addition to ‘the lack of efficient protection of the pipelines,such as the soil reinforcement or isolation etc. 'should be responsible for such events. The calculation and the evaluation results of the leakage accidents indicate that the risk situation faced by the underground pipeline leakage of the said construction project can be attributed to the medium level,which is in accord with the actual situation of the project. To answer to the need for improvement, the following corresponding countermeasures have been proposed based on the above analysis. The results show that the fuzzy fault tree method turns to be suitable and applicable to the purpose. And,the study can help to lay a scientific basis for the safety management of such construction companies and enterprises in safety protection of urban underground pipeline systems.
引文
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[9]LI Shuqin(李树琴).Study on safety risk management of underground pipeline deformation induced by the tunneling(隧道施工诱发临近管线变形安全风险研究)[D].Wuhan:Huazhong University of Science and Technology,2013.
[10]LIU Kehui(刘克会),JIANG Yifang(江贻芳),DENG Nan(邓楠),et al.Analysis on main risk factors of urban underground pipelines[J].Geotechnical Investigation&Surveying(工程勘察),2013(9):51-55.
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[13]KOMAL.Fuzzy fault tree analysis for patient safety risk modeling in healthcare under uncertainty[J].Applied Soft Computing,2015,37:942-961.
[14]CHARETTE R N.Software engineering risk analysis and management[M].New York:Mc Graw-Hill Book Company,1989.
[15]Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration.Pipeline incidents and mileage reports[EB/OL].[2013-03-02].http://primis.phmsa.dot.gov/comm/reports/safety/PSI.html?nocache=8699.
[16]DI Yan(狄彦),SHUAI Jian(帅健),WANG Xiaolin(王晓霖),et al.Study on methods for classifying oil&gas pipeline incidents[J].China Safety Science Journal(中国安全科学学报),2013,23(7):109-115.
[17]RUAN Zhuang(阮庄).The causes&countermeasures of damage of underground pipeline in municipal engineering construction[J].Municipal Engineering Technology(市政技术),2005,23(4):233-234.
[18]JIANG Ling(姜玲),WANG Zhongwei(汪中卫),WANG Xudong(王旭东).Analysis to the influence of parallel trench construction of adjacent buried pipelines[J].Chinese Journal of Underground Space and Engineering(地下空间与工程学报),2010,6(3):588-594.
[19]WANG Shuguang(王曙光).Treatment record of deep foundation support accidents(深基坑支护事故处理经验录)[M].Beijing:China Machine Press,2005.
[20]REN Qiang(任强).Study on risk evaluation and control technology of shielding construction of Beijing underground(北京地铁盾构施工风险评价与控制技术研究)[D].Beijing:China University of Geosciences,2010.
[21]MOU Shanjun(牟善军),ZHANG Shucai(张树才),WANGYanping(王延平)et al.Reflection on pipe explosion accidents occurring recently[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology(中国安全生产科学技术),2014,10(S):69-72.
[22]WU Tiankui(吴天魁),WANG Bo(王波),ZHAO Yini(赵旖旎),et al.Renovated fault analysis method for ammonia leakage based on the fault tree analysis[J].Journal of Safety and Environment(安全与环境学报),2014,14(4):15-20.
[23]YANG Taihua(杨太华),ZHENG Qinghua(郑庆华).Project safety risk analysis based on fault tree method[J].Journal of Systems&Management(系统管理学报),2009,18(5):511-515.
[2]GAO Yan(高岩).Safety factors analysis of urban underground space construction(城市地下空间工程施工安全影响因素分析)[D].Changchun:Jilin Jianzhu University,2014.
[3]SILER-EVANS K,HANSON A,SUNDAY C,et al.Analysis of pipeline accidents in the United States from 1968 to 2009[J].International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection,2014,7(4):257-269.
[4]GUO Hui(国辉).Statistics and analysis for accidents from natural gas pipelines in cities in China[J].Safety Health&Environment(安全、健康和环境),2008,8(4):6-8.
[5]RAMIREZ-CAMACHO J G,CARBONE F,PASTOR E,et al.Assessing the consequences of pipeline accidents to support land-used planning[J].Safety Science,2017,97:34-42.
[6]LI Xinggao(李兴高),WANG Ting(王霆).Study on safety control technologies of pipeline leakage induced accidents during metro construction[J].China Safety Science Journal(中国安全科学学报),2010,20(5):125-130.
[7]CHENG C Y,DASARI G R,CHOW Y K,et al.Finite element analysis of tunnel-soil-pile interaction using displacement controlled model[J].Tunneling and Underground Space Technology,2007,22(4):45-66.
[8]WU Xianguo(吴贤国),ZENG Tiemei(曾铁梅),ZHANG Limao(张立茂),et al.Research on safety management of adjacent underground pipelines in metro construction[J].Journal of Railway Engineering Society(铁道工程学报),2013(9):127-132.
[9]LI Shuqin(李树琴).Study on safety risk management of underground pipeline deformation induced by the tunneling(隧道施工诱发临近管线变形安全风险研究)[D].Wuhan:Huazhong University of Science and Technology,2013.
[10]LIU Kehui(刘克会),JIANG Yifang(江贻芳),DENG Nan(邓楠),et al.Analysis on main risk factors of urban underground pipelines[J].Geotechnical Investigation&Surveying(工程勘察),2013(9):51-55.
[11]LEE W S,GROSH D L,TILLMAN F A,et al.Fault tree analysis,methods,and applications:a review[J].IEEE Transactions on Reliability,1985,34(3):194-203.
[12]SURESH P V,BABAR A K,RAJ V V.Uncertainty in fault tree analysis:a fuzzy approach[J].Fuzzy Sets and Systems,1996,83(2):135-141.
[13]KOMAL.Fuzzy fault tree analysis for patient safety risk modeling in healthcare under uncertainty[J].Applied Soft Computing,2015,37:942-961.
[14]CHARETTE R N.Software engineering risk analysis and management[M].New York:Mc Graw-Hill Book Company,1989.
[15]Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration.Pipeline incidents and mileage reports[EB/OL].[2013-03-02].http://primis.phmsa.dot.gov/comm/reports/safety/PSI.html?nocache=8699.
[16]DI Yan(狄彦),SHUAI Jian(帅健),WANG Xiaolin(王晓霖),et al.Study on methods for classifying oil&gas pipeline incidents[J].China Safety Science Journal(中国安全科学学报),2013,23(7):109-115.
[17]RUAN Zhuang(阮庄).The causes&countermeasures of damage of underground pipeline in municipal engineering construction[J].Municipal Engineering Technology(市政技术),2005,23(4):233-234.
[18]JIANG Ling(姜玲),WANG Zhongwei(汪中卫),WANG Xudong(王旭东).Analysis to the influence of parallel trench construction of adjacent buried pipelines[J].Chinese Journal of Underground Space and Engineering(地下空间与工程学报),2010,6(3):588-594.
[19]WANG Shuguang(王曙光).Treatment record of deep foundation support accidents(深基坑支护事故处理经验录)[M].Beijing:China Machine Press,2005.
[20]REN Qiang(任强).Study on risk evaluation and control technology of shielding construction of Beijing underground(北京地铁盾构施工风险评价与控制技术研究)[D].Beijing:China University of Geosciences,2010.
[21]MOU Shanjun(牟善军),ZHANG Shucai(张树才),WANGYanping(王延平)et al.Reflection on pipe explosion accidents occurring recently[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology(中国安全生产科学技术),2014,10(S):69-72.
[22]WU Tiankui(吴天魁),WANG Bo(王波),ZHAO Yini(赵旖旎),et al.Renovated fault analysis method for ammonia leakage based on the fault tree analysis[J].Journal of Safety and Environment(安全与环境学报),2014,14(4):15-20.
[23]YANG Taihua(杨太华),ZHENG Qinghua(郑庆华).Project safety risk analysis based on fault tree method[J].Journal of Systems&Management(系统管理学报),2009,18(5):511-515.