大连新建地铁对公交出行选择的影响
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摘要
为了分析城市新建地铁项目对居民公共交通出行的影响,改善公交服务水平,提高公共交通的分担率,针对大连市新建地铁线路展开研究。以大连市地铁1号线沿线站点作为研究区域,采用SP(Stated Preference)调查方法,收集了300名地铁沿线居民对常规公交以及新建地铁两种出行方式的选择数据。通过建立二项Logit模型,分析出行成本、换乘时间等选择方案特性变量,出行特性变量以及出行者特性变量对于居民出行方式选择行为的影响,并计算弹性值及模型精度。结果表明,通过调整出行成本及换乘时间可有效提高地铁分担率。由此提出相关政策建议:对于出行成本,可从出行者年龄及出行次数两方面制定不同的优惠政策;对于换乘时间,可从提高可达性、完善购票系统以及调整发班频率三方面进行改善。
In order to analyze the impact of new built subway on residents′ travel mode choice behaviorfor public transport, improve the level of service, increase the split rate of public transport, the new builtsubway in Dalian was studied. Stations along the new built Dalian subway were taken as the study area,data of choice results between bus and subway made by 300 residents who lived alongside the subwayline was collected through SP(Stated Preference) Survey. To analyze the influence of the alternative char-acteristic variables such as travel cost and transfer time, as well as the influence of travel and travelercharacteristic variables on travel mode choice behavior, a Binary Logit model was conducted. Mean-while, the elasticity and the precision of the BL Model were analyzed. The result indicates that the sharerate of subway can be effectively improved by adjusting the travel cost and the transfer time. Related pol-icy suggestions are proposed: for travel cost, preferential policies can be made from two aspects whichare ages and travelers′ travel frequencies; for transfer time, it can be improved through increasing acces-sibility, improving ticket service and adjusting subway frequency.
In order to analyze the impact of new built subway on residents′ travel mode choice behaviorfor public transport, improve the level of service, increase the split rate of public transport, the new builtsubway in Dalian was studied. Stations along the new built Dalian subway were taken as the study area,data of choice results between bus and subway made by 300 residents who lived alongside the subwayline was collected through SP(Stated Preference) Survey. To analyze the influence of the alternative char-acteristic variables such as travel cost and transfer time, as well as the influence of travel and travelercharacteristic variables on travel mode choice behavior, a Binary Logit model was conducted. Mean-while, the elasticity and the precision of the BL Model were analyzed. The result indicates that the sharerate of subway can be effectively improved by adjusting the travel cost and the transfer time. Related pol-icy suggestions are proposed: for travel cost, preferential policies can be made from two aspects whichare ages and travelers′ travel frequencies; for transfer time, it can be improved through increasing acces-sibility, improving ticket service and adjusting subway frequency.
引文
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[3]BAE C H C,JUN M J,PARK H.The Impact of Seoul′s Subway Line 5 on Residential Property Values[J].Transport Policy,2003,10(2):85-94.
[4]MEJIA-DORANTES L,PáEZ A,VASSALLO J M.Analysis of House Prices to Assess Economic Impacts of New Public Transport Infrastructure:Madrid Metro Line 12[J].Transportation Research Record:Journal of the Transportation Research Board,2011,2245(2245):131-139.
[5]LI S.Influence of a New Subway Line′s Opening on Passenger Flow Characteristics of an Urban Rail Transit Network[C]//15th COTA International Conference of Transportation Professionals.Beijing:Chinese Overseas Transportation Association,2015:1756-1769.
[6]汪波,黄建玲,白云云.城市轨道交通网络新线开通客流预测与评估[C]//第十届中国智能交通年会优秀论文集.北京:中国智能交通协会,2015:108-120.
[7]刘剑锋,陈必壮,马小毅,等.城市轨道交通网络化客流特征及成长规律——基于京沪穗深城市轨道交通网络客流数据分析[J].城市交通,2013,11(6):6-17.
[8]赵路敏,王奕,杜世敏.新线开通对线网客流特征的影响[J].都市快轨交通,2011,24(2):46-49.
[9]GAVANAS N,POLITIS I,DOVAS K,et al.Is a New Metro Line a Mean for Sustainable Mobility among Commuters?The Case of Thessaloniki City[J].International Journal for Traffic and Transport Engineering,2012,2(2):98-102.
[10]程坤.新建轨道交通项目对周边居民出行方式的影响分析[D].广州:华南理工大学,2011.
[11]刘明然.城市轨道交通新线开通对居民出行方式选择的影响研究[D].北京:北京交通大学,2015.
[12]关宏志.非集计模型:交通行为分析的工具[M].北京:人民交通出版社,2004.
[13]TRAIN K E.Discrete Choice:Methods with Simulation[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2003.
[14]BEN-AKIVA M E,LERMAN S R.Discrete Choice Analysis:Theory and Application to Travel Demand[M].Cambridge:MIT Press,1985.
[15]KADANEJ B.Structural Analysis of Discrete Data with Econometric Applications[M].Cambridge:MIT Press,1984.
[16]HENSHER D A,JOHNSON L W.Applied Discrete Choice Modelling[J].General Information,1981,6(6):774.
[17]WU N,ZHAO S.Impact of Transportation Convenience,Housing Affordability,Location,and Schooling in Residence Choice Decisions[J].Journal of Urban Planning&Development,2014,141(4):05014028.