湖南省非一致性极端高温频率特征分析
|
摘要
受气候变化和人类活动等因素影响,水文气象时间序列失去了一致性。以湖南省89个气象站点1960～2013年逐日气温资料为基础,选取年平均日最高温度(AMMT)和超过95th分位值的平均日最高温度(POT),研究非一致性条件下湖南省极端高温指数的频率特征。结果表明:湖南省89个站点中有59个站点(66. 3%)的AMMT序列和23个站点(25. 8%)的POT序列呈现显著的非一致性。利用线性矩法和Cramer-von Mises(CM)检验等方法,发现广义正态分布(GNO)函数能较好地拟合研究区极端高温指数序列。通过还原途径修正非一致性序列,并对修正前、后不同重现期水平下的极端高温指数的估算值进行对比,发现气候变化条件下AMMT序列在湘北、湘中和湘东南地区呈现强度增强和重现期缩短的趋势,而POT序列仅在湘北和湘东南地区呈现出相似的频率特征变化。
The time series of hydrometeorology has lost its consistency,because of the influences of climate change and human activities. Based on the daily temperature data during the period of 1960-2013 in 89 meteorological stations over Hunan Province,the annual mean maximum temperature( AMMT) and peak over threshold( POT) are selected to detect the inconsistent characteristics of the extreme high temperature indices.The results showed that there were significant inconsistencies in the AMMT series of 59 sites( 66. 3%) and the POT series of 23 sites( 25. 8%) out of 89 stations. The parameters of five extreme distributions GLO,GEV,GPA,GNO and PE3 are estimated by using the L-moments method. From the results of Cramer-von Mises( CM) test,we found that the GNO distribution function can better fit the series of extreme high temperature indices in Hunan Province. The non-stationary series is modified by the reduction pathway. Based on the GNO model,we calculated the estimated return levels for both the modified and non-modified extreme series at different return periods and assessed the changes of the extreme series at three different return periods. Under the conditions of climate change,the AMMT series showed an enhanced trend of intensity and a shortened trend of the return period in north Hunan,central Hunan and southeast Hunan. However,the POT series showed similar frequency characteristics variation only in northern Hunan and southeastern Hunan.
The time series of hydrometeorology has lost its consistency,because of the influences of climate change and human activities. Based on the daily temperature data during the period of 1960-2013 in 89 meteorological stations over Hunan Province,the annual mean maximum temperature( AMMT) and peak over threshold( POT) are selected to detect the inconsistent characteristics of the extreme high temperature indices.The results showed that there were significant inconsistencies in the AMMT series of 59 sites( 66. 3%) and the POT series of 23 sites( 25. 8%) out of 89 stations. The parameters of five extreme distributions GLO,GEV,GPA,GNO and PE3 are estimated by using the L-moments method. From the results of Cramer-von Mises( CM) test,we found that the GNO distribution function can better fit the series of extreme high temperature indices in Hunan Province. The non-stationary series is modified by the reduction pathway. Based on the GNO model,we calculated the estimated return levels for both the modified and non-modified extreme series at different return periods and assessed the changes of the extreme series at three different return periods. Under the conditions of climate change,the AMMT series showed an enhanced trend of intensity and a shortened trend of the return period in north Hunan,central Hunan and southeast Hunan. However,the POT series showed similar frequency characteristics variation only in northern Hunan and southeastern Hunan.
引文
[1]沈永平,王国亚. IPCC第一工作组第五次评估报告对全球气候变化认知的最新科学要点[J].冰川冻土,2013,35(5):1068-1076.SHEN Y P,WANG G Y. Key findings and assessment results of IPCC WGI Fifth Assessment Report[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2013,35(5):1068-1076.
[2] LESK C,ROWHANI P,RAMANKUTTY N. Influence of extreme weather disasters on global crop production[J]. Nature,2016,529,84-87.
[3] DAWADI S,AHMAD S. Changing climatic conditions in the Colorado River Basin:Implications for water resources management[J]. Journal of Hydrology,2012,430-431(8):127-141.
[4] ANDERSON G B,BELL M L. Heat waves in the United States:mortality risk during heat waves and effect modification by heat wave characteristics in 43 U. S. Communities[J]. Environmental Health Perspectives,2011,119(2):210-218.
[5]朱歆炜,叶成志,彭晶晶,等.湖南省55 a极端气温事件变化特征[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2016,10(2):82-88.ZHU X W,YE C Z,PENG J J,et al. Characteristics analysis on extreme temperature in Hunan Province in recent 55 years[J]. Desert and Oasis Meteorology,2016,10(2):82-88.
[6]廖玉芳,彭嘉栋,郭庆.湖南气候对全球气候变化的响应[J].大气科学学报,2014,37(1):75-81.LIAO Y F,PENG JIA D,GUO Q. Response of hunan climate to global climate change[J]. Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences,2014,37(1):75-81.
[7]张曦,黎鑫.湖南省夏季高温热浪时空分布特征及其成因[J].气候与环境研究,2017,22(6):747-756.ZHANG X,LI X. Spatial-temporal characteristics and causes of summer heat waves in Hunan Province[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research,2017,22(6):747-756.
[8] FISHER R A,TIPPETT L H C. Limiting forms of the frequency distribution of the largest or smallest member of a sample[J].Mathematical Proceedings of the Cambridge Philosophical Society,1928,24(2):180-190.
[9]江远安,尹宜舟,陈鹏翔,等. 1961~2014年新疆降水极值概率特征及拟合不确定性分析[J].气候变化研究进展,2017,13(1):52-60.JIANG Y A,YIN Y Z,CHEN P X,et all. Study on probabilistic characteristic and uncertainty in fitting of precipitation extremes over Xinjiang during 1961-2014[J]. Advances in Climate Change Research,2017,13(1):52-60.
[10]张素凡,王龙,余航,等.云南省日极端降水概率特征及时空变化研究[J].灌溉排水学报,2017,36(5):11-16.ZHANG S F,WANG L,YU H,et all. Statistical analysis and spatio-temporal variation of extreme rainfalls in Yunnan Province[J]. Journal of Irrigation and Drainage,2017,36(5):11-16.
[11]王月华,李占玲,赵韦.黑河流域非一致性极端高温频率特征分析[J].地理研究,2017,36(4):755-764.WANG Y H,LI Z L,ZHAO W. Non-stationary frequency analysis of extreme high temperature in the Heihe River Basin[J].Geographical Research,2017,36(4):755-764.
[12]梁忠民,胡义明,王军.非一致性水文频率分析的研究进展[J].水科学进展,2011,22(6):864-871.LIANG Z M,HU Y M,WANG J. Advances in hydrological frequency analysis of non-stationary time series[J]. Advances in Water Science,2011,22(6):864-871.
[13] WI S,KIM T W,STEINSCHNEIDER S,et al. Non-stationary frequency analysis of extreme precipitation in South Korea using peaks-over-threshold and annual maxima[J]. Stochastic Environmental Research&Risk Assessment,2016,30(2):583-606.
[14]顾西辉,张强.考虑水文趋势影响的珠江流域非一致性洪水风险分析[J].地理研究,2014,33(9):1680-1693.GU X H,ZHANG Q. Non-stationary flood risk analysis in Pearl River Basin,considering the impact of hydrological trends[J].Geographical Research,2014,33(9):1680-1693.
[15]冯平,黄凯.水文序列非一致性对其参数估计不确定性影响研究[J].水利学报,2015,46(10):1145-1154.FENG P,HUANG K. A study about the impacts of non-stationary characteristic on the uncertainties of parameters estimation in hydrological series[J]. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2015,46(10):1145-1154.
[16]张剑明,章新平,黎祖贤,等.近36年湖南省干湿的空间分布特征及变化趋势[J].热带气象学报,2010,26(2):235-241.ZHANG J M,ZHANG X P,LI Z X,et al. The spatial distribution of drought and flood in Hunan Province in the past 36 years[J]. Journal of Tropical Meteorology,2010,26(2):235-241.
[17]周园园,师长兴,范小黎,等.国内水文序列变异点分析方法及在各流域应用研究进展[J].地理科学进展,2011,30(11):1361-1369.ZHOU Y Y,SHI C X,FAN X L,et al. Advances in the research methods of abrupt changes of hydrologic sequences and their applications in drainage basins in China[J]. Progress in Geography,2011,30(11):1361-1369.
[18] PETTITT A N. A non-parametric approach to the change-point problem[J]. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society,1979,28(2):126-135.
[19]何睿,庞博,张兰影.基于水文变异诊断系统的黑河流域上中游径流序列变异[J].生态学杂志,2015,34(7):1937-1942.HE R,PANG B,ZHANG L Y. Hydrological alteration diagnosis of runoff series in the upper and middle reaches of Heihe River Basin[J]. Journal of Ecology,2015,34(7):1937-1942.
[20] ZHANG L L,ZHAN J L,ZONG X X,et al. Temporal variations of reference evapotranspiration in Heihe River basin of China[J]. Hydrology Research,2013,44(5):904-916.
[21] HOSKING J R M,WALLIS J R. Regional frequency analysis[M]. Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1997.
[22] HOSKING J R M. L-Moments:analysis and estimation of distributions using linear combinations of order statistics[J]. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society,1990,52(1):105-124.
[23] YIN Y,CHEN H,XU C Y,et al. Spatio-temporal characteristics of the extreme precipitation by L-moment-based index-flood method in the Yangtze River Delta region,China[J]. Theoretical&Applied Climatology,2016,124(3-4):1005-1022.
[24]张剑明,黄晴.近46 a来湖南省气温变化的若干特点[J].干旱气象,2012,30(3):387-392.ZHANG J M,HUANG Q. Climate features of annual temperature in Hunan Province in recent 46 years[J]. Arid Meteorology,2012,30(3):387-392.
[25]罗伯良,李易芝.湖南高温日时空分布特征及高温日数气候预测[J].气象科技,2015,43(6):1110-111.LUO B L,LI Y Z. Temporal and spatial distribution of hot days in Hunan and their climatic prediction[J]. Meteorological Science and Technology,2015,43(6):1110-1115.
[26]符静. 2001~2013年洞庭湖流域植被覆盖度时空变化特征研究[D].湖南师范大学,2015,33-44.FU J. Spatial and temporal variations of vegetation coverage in the Dongting Lake Basin over the last 13 years(2001-2013)[D]. Hunan Normal University,2015,33-44.
[27]史江峰,李玲玲,韩志勇,等.湖南道吾山树轮记录的1815~2013年6~9月平均温度及其与PDO和ENSO的联系[J].第四纪研究,2015,35(5):1155-1164.SHI J F,LI L L,HAN Z Y,et al. Tree-ring width based JuneSeptember temperature reconstruction and its teleconnection with PDO and ENSO in mount Daowu,Hunan Province[J].Quaternary Sciences,2015,35(5):1155-1164.
[28] LUO M,LAU N C. Heat waves in southern China:Synoptic behavior,long-term change and urbanization effects[J]. Journal of Climate,2016,30(2):703-720.
[2] LESK C,ROWHANI P,RAMANKUTTY N. Influence of extreme weather disasters on global crop production[J]. Nature,2016,529,84-87.
[3] DAWADI S,AHMAD S. Changing climatic conditions in the Colorado River Basin:Implications for water resources management[J]. Journal of Hydrology,2012,430-431(8):127-141.
[4] ANDERSON G B,BELL M L. Heat waves in the United States:mortality risk during heat waves and effect modification by heat wave characteristics in 43 U. S. Communities[J]. Environmental Health Perspectives,2011,119(2):210-218.
[5]朱歆炜,叶成志,彭晶晶,等.湖南省55 a极端气温事件变化特征[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2016,10(2):82-88.ZHU X W,YE C Z,PENG J J,et al. Characteristics analysis on extreme temperature in Hunan Province in recent 55 years[J]. Desert and Oasis Meteorology,2016,10(2):82-88.
[6]廖玉芳,彭嘉栋,郭庆.湖南气候对全球气候变化的响应[J].大气科学学报,2014,37(1):75-81.LIAO Y F,PENG JIA D,GUO Q. Response of hunan climate to global climate change[J]. Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences,2014,37(1):75-81.
[7]张曦,黎鑫.湖南省夏季高温热浪时空分布特征及其成因[J].气候与环境研究,2017,22(6):747-756.ZHANG X,LI X. Spatial-temporal characteristics and causes of summer heat waves in Hunan Province[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research,2017,22(6):747-756.
[8] FISHER R A,TIPPETT L H C. Limiting forms of the frequency distribution of the largest or smallest member of a sample[J].Mathematical Proceedings of the Cambridge Philosophical Society,1928,24(2):180-190.
[9]江远安,尹宜舟,陈鹏翔,等. 1961~2014年新疆降水极值概率特征及拟合不确定性分析[J].气候变化研究进展,2017,13(1):52-60.JIANG Y A,YIN Y Z,CHEN P X,et all. Study on probabilistic characteristic and uncertainty in fitting of precipitation extremes over Xinjiang during 1961-2014[J]. Advances in Climate Change Research,2017,13(1):52-60.
[10]张素凡,王龙,余航,等.云南省日极端降水概率特征及时空变化研究[J].灌溉排水学报,2017,36(5):11-16.ZHANG S F,WANG L,YU H,et all. Statistical analysis and spatio-temporal variation of extreme rainfalls in Yunnan Province[J]. Journal of Irrigation and Drainage,2017,36(5):11-16.
[11]王月华,李占玲,赵韦.黑河流域非一致性极端高温频率特征分析[J].地理研究,2017,36(4):755-764.WANG Y H,LI Z L,ZHAO W. Non-stationary frequency analysis of extreme high temperature in the Heihe River Basin[J].Geographical Research,2017,36(4):755-764.
[12]梁忠民,胡义明,王军.非一致性水文频率分析的研究进展[J].水科学进展,2011,22(6):864-871.LIANG Z M,HU Y M,WANG J. Advances in hydrological frequency analysis of non-stationary time series[J]. Advances in Water Science,2011,22(6):864-871.
[13] WI S,KIM T W,STEINSCHNEIDER S,et al. Non-stationary frequency analysis of extreme precipitation in South Korea using peaks-over-threshold and annual maxima[J]. Stochastic Environmental Research&Risk Assessment,2016,30(2):583-606.
[14]顾西辉,张强.考虑水文趋势影响的珠江流域非一致性洪水风险分析[J].地理研究,2014,33(9):1680-1693.GU X H,ZHANG Q. Non-stationary flood risk analysis in Pearl River Basin,considering the impact of hydrological trends[J].Geographical Research,2014,33(9):1680-1693.
[15]冯平,黄凯.水文序列非一致性对其参数估计不确定性影响研究[J].水利学报,2015,46(10):1145-1154.FENG P,HUANG K. A study about the impacts of non-stationary characteristic on the uncertainties of parameters estimation in hydrological series[J]. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2015,46(10):1145-1154.
[16]张剑明,章新平,黎祖贤,等.近36年湖南省干湿的空间分布特征及变化趋势[J].热带气象学报,2010,26(2):235-241.ZHANG J M,ZHANG X P,LI Z X,et al. The spatial distribution of drought and flood in Hunan Province in the past 36 years[J]. Journal of Tropical Meteorology,2010,26(2):235-241.
[17]周园园,师长兴,范小黎,等.国内水文序列变异点分析方法及在各流域应用研究进展[J].地理科学进展,2011,30(11):1361-1369.ZHOU Y Y,SHI C X,FAN X L,et al. Advances in the research methods of abrupt changes of hydrologic sequences and their applications in drainage basins in China[J]. Progress in Geography,2011,30(11):1361-1369.
[18] PETTITT A N. A non-parametric approach to the change-point problem[J]. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society,1979,28(2):126-135.
[19]何睿,庞博,张兰影.基于水文变异诊断系统的黑河流域上中游径流序列变异[J].生态学杂志,2015,34(7):1937-1942.HE R,PANG B,ZHANG L Y. Hydrological alteration diagnosis of runoff series in the upper and middle reaches of Heihe River Basin[J]. Journal of Ecology,2015,34(7):1937-1942.
[20] ZHANG L L,ZHAN J L,ZONG X X,et al. Temporal variations of reference evapotranspiration in Heihe River basin of China[J]. Hydrology Research,2013,44(5):904-916.
[21] HOSKING J R M,WALLIS J R. Regional frequency analysis[M]. Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1997.
[22] HOSKING J R M. L-Moments:analysis and estimation of distributions using linear combinations of order statistics[J]. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society,1990,52(1):105-124.
[23] YIN Y,CHEN H,XU C Y,et al. Spatio-temporal characteristics of the extreme precipitation by L-moment-based index-flood method in the Yangtze River Delta region,China[J]. Theoretical&Applied Climatology,2016,124(3-4):1005-1022.
[24]张剑明,黄晴.近46 a来湖南省气温变化的若干特点[J].干旱气象,2012,30(3):387-392.ZHANG J M,HUANG Q. Climate features of annual temperature in Hunan Province in recent 46 years[J]. Arid Meteorology,2012,30(3):387-392.
[25]罗伯良,李易芝.湖南高温日时空分布特征及高温日数气候预测[J].气象科技,2015,43(6):1110-111.LUO B L,LI Y Z. Temporal and spatial distribution of hot days in Hunan and their climatic prediction[J]. Meteorological Science and Technology,2015,43(6):1110-1115.
[26]符静. 2001~2013年洞庭湖流域植被覆盖度时空变化特征研究[D].湖南师范大学,2015,33-44.FU J. Spatial and temporal variations of vegetation coverage in the Dongting Lake Basin over the last 13 years(2001-2013)[D]. Hunan Normal University,2015,33-44.
[27]史江峰,李玲玲,韩志勇,等.湖南道吾山树轮记录的1815~2013年6~9月平均温度及其与PDO和ENSO的联系[J].第四纪研究,2015,35(5):1155-1164.SHI J F,LI L L,HAN Z Y,et al. Tree-ring width based JuneSeptember temperature reconstruction and its teleconnection with PDO and ENSO in mount Daowu,Hunan Province[J].Quaternary Sciences,2015,35(5):1155-1164.
[28] LUO M,LAU N C. Heat waves in southern China:Synoptic behavior,long-term change and urbanization effects[J]. Journal of Climate,2016,30(2):703-720.
© 2004-2018 中国地质图书馆版权所有 京ICP备05064691号 京公网安备11010802017129号 地址：北京市海淀区学院路29号 邮编：100083 电话：办公室：(+86 10)66554848；文献借阅、咨询服务、科技查新：66554700 |