降雨重现期及其用于滑坡概率分析的探讨
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摘要
极端气候条件往往会诱发各种地质灾害,而降雨型滑坡的发生则与极值降雨关系密切。为了有效预防和控制汛期滑坡灾害的发生,定量评估滑坡灾害造成的人员与经济风险,讨论了汛期极值降雨条件下滑坡概率的分析方法。利用Gumbel极值分布理论,以三峡库区巴东县1990～2006年日降雨量为基础资料,采用统计分析方法,求取研究区在汛期(6月中旬至9月)最大一次连续降雨量、多日累积最大降雨量的极值及其分布曲线;在此基础上,以研究区一个滑坡实例为对象,综合采用渗流模拟、稳定性分析和基于蒙特卡罗的滑坡概率分析方法,讨论了降雨极值及其重现期成果分别在降雨新生型滑坡和降雨复活型滑坡概率分析中的应用思路与方法。结果表明,随着重现期的增加,一次降雨过程的降雨量也增加;随着降雨日数的增加,具有不同重现期降雨事件的累积降雨量均会增加,且重现期越长,累积降雨量值会越大;降雨极值曲线分别应用于降雨新生型和降雨复活型滑坡概率分析的思路是可行并有效的。
The occurrences of landslides usually have a good relationship with rainfall,especially with extreme rainfall events.Based on the theory of Gumbel Extreme Distribution,rainfall precipitation of Badong county in the Three Gorges Reservoir from 1990 to 2006 was statistically analyzed in the paper.Some special extreme values and distribution curves for rainfalls in flood seasons were obtained,including the maximum accumulative daily rainfall,the greatest accumulation rainfall.It is concluded that: with the increase of return period,the accumulation rainfall of one rainfall course can increase;with the increase of rainy days,the accumulation rainfall of one rainfall event with different return period can increase.And longer the return period is,greater the rainfall can be.Based on the above conclusions,the results are respectively used to re-active and newly active landslides trigged by rainfall.The method of probability of the landslide is further discussed in this paper.
The occurrences of landslides usually have a good relationship with rainfall,especially with extreme rainfall events.Based on the theory of Gumbel Extreme Distribution,rainfall precipitation of Badong county in the Three Gorges Reservoir from 1990 to 2006 was statistically analyzed in the paper.Some special extreme values and distribution curves for rainfalls in flood seasons were obtained,including the maximum accumulative daily rainfall,the greatest accumulation rainfall.It is concluded that: with the increase of return period,the accumulation rainfall of one rainfall course can increase;with the increase of rainy days,the accumulation rainfall of one rainfall event with different return period can increase.And longer the return period is,greater the rainfall can be.Based on the above conclusions,the results are respectively used to re-active and newly active landslides trigged by rainfall.The method of probability of the landslide is further discussed in this paper.
引文
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[2]王海军,张峻,王宏记,等.长江三峡地区宜昌,巴东短历时极值降水特征分析[J].暴雨灾害,2010,29(1):38～43.Wang Haijun,Zhang Jun,Wang Hongji,et al.The characteristicsof short-duration precipitation extremes of Badong and Yichang sta-tions in the Yangtze Three Gorges area.Torrential Rain and Disas-ters,2010,29(1):38～43.
[3]陈干琴.山东省点暴雨极值地域分布及影响因素分析[J].中国水利,2009,23:57～59.Chen Ganqin.Geographical distribution of rainstorm extremevalues in Shandong province and its impact factor.China WaterResources,2009,23:57～59.
[4]Sheng Yue.the gumbel logistic model for representing amultivariate storm event[J].Advances in Water Resources,2001,24:179～185.
[5]张志才,陈喜,王文,等.贵州降雨变化趋势与极值特征分析[J].地球与环境,2007,35(4):351～356.Zhang Zhicai,Chen Xi,Wang Wen,et al.Analysis of rainfalltrend and extreme events in GuiZhou.Earth and Environment,2007,35(4):351～356.
[6]Begueria S,Vicente-Serrano S M.Mapping the hazard of extremerainfall by peaks over threshold extreme value analysis and spatialregression Techniques[J].Journal of Applied Meteorology andClimatology,2006,45,108～124.
[7]肖莞生,陈子燊.广东沿海降水长期变化特征与极值分析[J].热带地理,2010,30(2):135～140.Xiao Guansheng,Chen Zishen.Analysis of the characteristics andextreme value of rainfall in three coastal cities of Guangdong prov-ince.Tropical Geography,2010,30(2):135～140.
[8]谢守益,张年学,许兵.长江三峡库区典型滑坡降雨诱发的概率分析[J].工程地质学报,1995,3(2):60～69.Xie Shouyi,Zhang Nianxue,Xu Bing.Probability analysis of pre-cipitation-induced slide of typical landslide in Three Gorges area ofthe Yangtze river.Journal of Engineering Geology,1995,3(2):60～69.
[9]Floris M,Bozzano F.Evaluation of landslide reactivation:A modi-fied rainfall threshold model based on historical records of rainfalland landslides[J].Geomorphology,2008,94,Issues 1-2:40～57.
[10]Deb S K,EI-Dadi A I.Susceptibility assessment of shallow land-slides on Oahu,Hawaii,under extreme-rainfall events[J].Geo-morphology,2009,108:219～233.
[11]Liu Defu,Xie Botao,Pang Liang,et al.Extreme value predici-tion fo typhoon hazards-models and applications[J].Periodicalof Ocean University of China,2009,39(5):1105～1114.
[12]张卫东,李茂林,张秀梅,等.极值理论在地震危险性分析中的应用与研究[J].东北地震研究,2005,21(1):24～30.Zhang Weidong,Li Maolin,Zhang Xiumei,et al.Applicationand study on the extreme value theory in seimic risk analysis.Seismological Research of Northeast China,2005,21(1):24～30.
[13]金光炎.广义极值分布及其在水文中的应用[J].水文,1998,2:9～15.Jin Guangyan.General extreme value distribution and its applica-tion to hydrology.Hydrology,1998,2:9～15.
[14]李锋,刘澄.基于极值理论的金融风险研究[J].商业研究,2010,5:115～118.Li Feng,Liu Cheng.Study on financial risk based on EVT.Com-mercial Research,2010,5:115～118.
[15]屠其璞.气象应用概率统计学[M].北京:气象出版社,1984.Tu Qipu.Meteorology application and probability statistics.Bei-jing:China Meteorological Press,1984.
[16]长江水利委员会综合勘测局.长江三峡水利枢纽库区巴东县迁建城镇新址地质论证报告[R].1995.Comprehensive Investigation Bureau of Changjiang WaterResources Commission.Report of Geology Argumentation for NewBadong Town Relocation in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area.1995.