全国性银行与区域银行盈利趋势及其影响因素比较研究——基于2006-2016年数据
|
摘要
本文结合银行实际经营经验,定性分析了17家全国性银行和88家区域银行2006-2016年的经营指标的变化,并采用固定效应模型,分别使用传统最小二乘和系统广义矩的方法,对两类商业银行的资产盈利能力和资本盈利能力进行全面计量对比分析。定性分析表明,资产结构、成本管理和风险控制等内部经营因素与行业竞争和外部环境一起共同影响银行的盈利能力;计量研究发现,资产负债配置能力、管理能力和风控能力等内部因素,市场集中度和行业发展等行业因素,以及货币政策和宏观经济等外部因素对商业银行的盈利能力产生了显著影响。本文提出,提升风险管理能力和精细化管理水平,优化资产负债配置,并注重当地行业竞争和重视监管政策是商业银行提升盈利能力的主要战略方向。
Based on the bank operating practices,this paper qualitatively analyzes the business indices of 17 national banks and 88 regional banks from 2006 to 2016. A fixed effect model is established,classical least squares method and the generalized method of moments are applied for the quantitative comparative analysis on the capital profitability and asset profitability of the two types of banks. The qualitative analysis indicates that bank profitability is affected by peer competitions,external environment,and internal operating factors,such as asset composition,cost and risk management. In addition,the quantitative analysis shows the profitability of the commercial banks is obviously influenced by inner factors including the ability of asset liability collocation,management,risk control,and the industry factors such as the level of market concentration and field development,as well as the outer factors like monetary policies and macroeconomic impact. In the end,this research proposes that the strategic key to raise commercial banks' profitability is to develop the risk control ability,improve management skill,optimize asset liability allocation,concentrate on market competition and regulate bank's operation.
Based on the bank operating practices,this paper qualitatively analyzes the business indices of 17 national banks and 88 regional banks from 2006 to 2016. A fixed effect model is established,classical least squares method and the generalized method of moments are applied for the quantitative comparative analysis on the capital profitability and asset profitability of the two types of banks. The qualitative analysis indicates that bank profitability is affected by peer competitions,external environment,and internal operating factors,such as asset composition,cost and risk management. In addition,the quantitative analysis shows the profitability of the commercial banks is obviously influenced by inner factors including the ability of asset liability collocation,management,risk control,and the industry factors such as the level of market concentration and field development,as well as the outer factors like monetary policies and macroeconomic impact. In the end,this research proposes that the strategic key to raise commercial banks' profitability is to develop the risk control ability,improve management skill,optimize asset liability allocation,concentrate on market competition and regulate bank's operation.
引文
[1]倪美蓉.上市商业银行盈利能力影响因素的研究---基于面板数据模型的实证检验[J].时代金融,2011,(26):28-30
[2]李菁楠,任森春.利率市场化背景下存贷利差对商业银行盈利能力影响的实证分析---以上市银行为例[J].长春理工大学学报(社会科学版),2014,(7):90-93
[3]赫国胜,王宏.中央银行利率调整对商业银行盈利能力影响的实证分析[J].经济与管理研究,2012,(4):85-89
[4]岳宁,陈立新.收入结构对我国商业银行盈利能力的影响[J].财经问题研究,2014,(5):33-37
[5]赵旭,蒋振声,周军民.中国银行业市场结构与绩效实证研究[J].金融研究,2001,(3):59-67
[6]Rinkevicˇiūte·V.,Martinkute·-kauliene·R.Impact of Market Concentration on the Profitability of Lithuanian Banking Sector[J].Business Theory&Practice,2014,15(3):254-260
[7]黄隽,张春林.什么决定了中国商业银行的高盈利[J].经济理论与经济管理,2012,32(6):5-14
[8]Ghazali M.The Bank-Specific and Macroeconomic Determinants of Islamic Bank Profitability:Some International Evidence[J].University of Malaya,2008
[9]Molyneux P.,Thornton J.Determinants of European Bank Profitability:A Note[J].Journal of Banking&Finance,2004,16(6):1173-1178
[10]Robert S.,Clair T.Banking Financial Performance and Resilience in Singapore[R].MAS Staff Paper,2004
[11]Vejzagic M.,Zarafat H.An Analysis of Macroeconomic Determinants of Commercial Banks Profitability in Malaysia for the Period1995-2011[J].Social Science Electronic Publishing,2013,4(1):41-57
[12]Athanasoglou P.P.,Delis M.D.,Staikouras C.Determinants of Bank Profitability in the South Eastern European Region[R].Bank of Greece Working Papers,2006
[13]Pasiouras F.,Kosmidou K.Factors Influencing the Profitability of Domestic and Foreign Commercial Banks in the European Union[J].Research in International Business&Finance,2007,21(2):222-237
[14]Athanasoglou P.P.,Brissimis S.N.,Delis M.D.Bank-specific,Industry-specific and Macroeconomic Determinants of Bank Profitability[J].Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions&Money,2008,18(2):121-136
[15]Anbar A.,Alper D.Bank Specific and Macroeconomic Determinants of Commercial Bank Profitability:Empirical Evidence from Turkey[J].Business&Economics Research Journal,2011,2(2):139-152
[16]Saona P.Intra-and Extra-Bank Determinants of Latin American Banks’Profitability[J].International Review of Economics&Finance,2016,45(5):197-214
[17]陆岷峰,汪祖刚.中国商业银行盈利能力持续性研究[J].经济与管理评论,2015,(3):100-111
[18]张健华,王鹏.银行效率及其影响因素研究[J].金融研究,2011,(5):13-28
[19]李安娜.中国商业银行盈利能力影响因素的实证分析---基于中国上市商业银行的面板数据的研究[J].经济研究导刊,2013,(20):184-185
[20]朱宏泉,张凌雪,汪娜.国内商业银行绩效的外部影响因素分析[J].管理评论,2014,26(10):3-12
[21]陈一洪.中国城市商业银行盈利能力影响因素分析[J].统计与信息论坛,2017,(3):121-126
[22]陆静,阿拉腾苏道,尹宇明.中国商业银行盈利能力的影响因素---基于1997-2010年数据的实证分析[J].金融论坛,2013,(1):3-14
[23]尚妍,段忠辉,李斌,等.多元化经营对商业银行绩效影响的实证研究---基于国内商业银行与国外商业银行对比的视角[J].管理评论,2016,28(5):3-12
[24]Staikouras C.K.The Determinants of European Bank Profitability[J].International Journal of Economics&Business Research,2004,3(6):57-68
[25]Mckeown R.Where Are the Economies of Scale in Canadian Banking?[R].Queen’s Economics Department Working Papers,2017
[26]Bhavani G.,Mehta A.What Determines Banks’Profitability?Evidence from Emerging Markets---The Case of the UAE.Banking Sector[J].Social Science Electronic Publishing,2017,6(1):77-88
[27]Trujillo P.A.What Determines the Profitability of Banks?Evidence from Spain[J].Accounting&Finance,2014,53(2):561-586
[28]Arellano M.,Bond S.Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data:Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations[J].Review of Economic Studies,1991,58(2):277-297
[29]Roodman D.M.How to Do xtabond2:An Introduction to“Difference”and“System”GMM in Stata[J].The Stata Journal,2009,9(1):86-136
(1)系统广义矩在差分广义矩的基础上利用了水平方程的信息,一般比差分广义矩更为有效,但如果面板数据中个体的数量过少,那么Hansen统计量会非常不显著,常常等于1,这是因为个体数量越少,卡方分布显著的门槛越高,会让Hansen检验的效果变弱,因此个体数量较少的模型不适合使用GMM方法进行估计。
[2]李菁楠,任森春.利率市场化背景下存贷利差对商业银行盈利能力影响的实证分析---以上市银行为例[J].长春理工大学学报(社会科学版),2014,(7):90-93
[3]赫国胜,王宏.中央银行利率调整对商业银行盈利能力影响的实证分析[J].经济与管理研究,2012,(4):85-89
[4]岳宁,陈立新.收入结构对我国商业银行盈利能力的影响[J].财经问题研究,2014,(5):33-37
[5]赵旭,蒋振声,周军民.中国银行业市场结构与绩效实证研究[J].金融研究,2001,(3):59-67
[6]Rinkevicˇiūte·V.,Martinkute·-kauliene·R.Impact of Market Concentration on the Profitability of Lithuanian Banking Sector[J].Business Theory&Practice,2014,15(3):254-260
[7]黄隽,张春林.什么决定了中国商业银行的高盈利[J].经济理论与经济管理,2012,32(6):5-14
[8]Ghazali M.The Bank-Specific and Macroeconomic Determinants of Islamic Bank Profitability:Some International Evidence[J].University of Malaya,2008
[9]Molyneux P.,Thornton J.Determinants of European Bank Profitability:A Note[J].Journal of Banking&Finance,2004,16(6):1173-1178
[10]Robert S.,Clair T.Banking Financial Performance and Resilience in Singapore[R].MAS Staff Paper,2004
[11]Vejzagic M.,Zarafat H.An Analysis of Macroeconomic Determinants of Commercial Banks Profitability in Malaysia for the Period1995-2011[J].Social Science Electronic Publishing,2013,4(1):41-57
[12]Athanasoglou P.P.,Delis M.D.,Staikouras C.Determinants of Bank Profitability in the South Eastern European Region[R].Bank of Greece Working Papers,2006
[13]Pasiouras F.,Kosmidou K.Factors Influencing the Profitability of Domestic and Foreign Commercial Banks in the European Union[J].Research in International Business&Finance,2007,21(2):222-237
[14]Athanasoglou P.P.,Brissimis S.N.,Delis M.D.Bank-specific,Industry-specific and Macroeconomic Determinants of Bank Profitability[J].Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions&Money,2008,18(2):121-136
[15]Anbar A.,Alper D.Bank Specific and Macroeconomic Determinants of Commercial Bank Profitability:Empirical Evidence from Turkey[J].Business&Economics Research Journal,2011,2(2):139-152
[16]Saona P.Intra-and Extra-Bank Determinants of Latin American Banks’Profitability[J].International Review of Economics&Finance,2016,45(5):197-214
[17]陆岷峰,汪祖刚.中国商业银行盈利能力持续性研究[J].经济与管理评论,2015,(3):100-111
[18]张健华,王鹏.银行效率及其影响因素研究[J].金融研究,2011,(5):13-28
[19]李安娜.中国商业银行盈利能力影响因素的实证分析---基于中国上市商业银行的面板数据的研究[J].经济研究导刊,2013,(20):184-185
[20]朱宏泉,张凌雪,汪娜.国内商业银行绩效的外部影响因素分析[J].管理评论,2014,26(10):3-12
[21]陈一洪.中国城市商业银行盈利能力影响因素分析[J].统计与信息论坛,2017,(3):121-126
[22]陆静,阿拉腾苏道,尹宇明.中国商业银行盈利能力的影响因素---基于1997-2010年数据的实证分析[J].金融论坛,2013,(1):3-14
[23]尚妍,段忠辉,李斌,等.多元化经营对商业银行绩效影响的实证研究---基于国内商业银行与国外商业银行对比的视角[J].管理评论,2016,28(5):3-12
[24]Staikouras C.K.The Determinants of European Bank Profitability[J].International Journal of Economics&Business Research,2004,3(6):57-68
[25]Mckeown R.Where Are the Economies of Scale in Canadian Banking?[R].Queen’s Economics Department Working Papers,2017
[26]Bhavani G.,Mehta A.What Determines Banks’Profitability?Evidence from Emerging Markets---The Case of the UAE.Banking Sector[J].Social Science Electronic Publishing,2017,6(1):77-88
[27]Trujillo P.A.What Determines the Profitability of Banks?Evidence from Spain[J].Accounting&Finance,2014,53(2):561-586
[28]Arellano M.,Bond S.Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data:Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations[J].Review of Economic Studies,1991,58(2):277-297
[29]Roodman D.M.How to Do xtabond2:An Introduction to“Difference”and“System”GMM in Stata[J].The Stata Journal,2009,9(1):86-136
(1)系统广义矩在差分广义矩的基础上利用了水平方程的信息,一般比差分广义矩更为有效,但如果面板数据中个体的数量过少,那么Hansen统计量会非常不显著,常常等于1,这是因为个体数量越少,卡方分布显著的门槛越高,会让Hansen检验的效果变弱,因此个体数量较少的模型不适合使用GMM方法进行估计。
© 2004-2018 中国地质图书馆版权所有 京ICP备05064691号 京公网安备11010802017129号 地址：北京市海淀区学院路29号 邮编：100083 电话：办公室：(+86 10)66554848；文献借阅、咨询服务、科技查新：66554700 |