中国农村儿童早期发展:政府投资的效益—成本分析
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摘要
儿童早期发展(Early Childhood Development, ECD)项目主要目标之一是为儿童接受小学和更高的教育做学前准备。众所周知,ECD项目大部分收益体现在参与项目儿童会有更高的入学率、更少辍学并获得更好的学业表现。然而,中低收入国家往往不了解ECD项目的投资价值,因此,政府迫切需要有相关数据,以便为实施推广ECD项目提供政策决策的参考。本研究利用政府发布的公开数据和相关研究数据,采用世界银行研发的ECD效益成本测算工具,测算了中国政府在农村地区开展ECD项目的效益-成本比。结果表明,在中国农村地区,政府投资ECD项目的回报率非常高,其效益—成本比为4.2-9.3,如果换算为投资回报率的话,大致为7-15%。与政府投资的其它项目相比,这一回报率较高,也与世界上其它国家实施的ECD项目的投资回报率大致相同。因此,从效益-成本角度考虑,中国政府应该大力开展ECD项目,尤其侧重提高农村地区人力资本质量,为中国未来社会经济可持续发展提供良好的人力资本储备。
One of the primary goals of Early Childhood Development(ECD) initiatives is to prepare children for their eventual participation in elementary school and beyond. It is well known that a large share of ECD's benefits is realized through higher enrollment, less dropout and higher performance. Governments in low and middle-income countries, however, often do not know the value of such investments and are seeking knowledge of the returns to state-supported ECD programs. This paper uses a World Bank-produced ECD calculator to estimate the economic benefits of early child development(ECD) programs in China. According to our findings, which utilize high quality data that are shown in the paper supported by academic research or government source of information, the returns to investment in economic terms are high. We find that the benefit-cost ratio is from 4.2 to 8.4. Such returns are shown to be higher than many other government-supported initiatives and are equally as high as those found in many other countries.
One of the primary goals of Early Childhood Development(ECD) initiatives is to prepare children for their eventual participation in elementary school and beyond. It is well known that a large share of ECD's benefits is realized through higher enrollment, less dropout and higher performance. Governments in low and middle-income countries, however, often do not know the value of such investments and are seeking knowledge of the returns to state-supported ECD programs. This paper uses a World Bank-produced ECD calculator to estimate the economic benefits of early child development(ECD) programs in China. According to our findings, which utilize high quality data that are shown in the paper supported by academic research or government source of information, the returns to investment in economic terms are high. We find that the benefit-cost ratio is from 4.2 to 8.4. Such returns are shown to be higher than many other government-supported initiatives and are equally as high as those found in many other countries.
引文
国家统计局,2017.2016年《中国儿童发展纲要(2011-2020年)》统计监测报告.取自http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/zxfb/201710/t20171026_1546618.html.
国家外汇管理局,2018.各种货币对美元折算率表(2018年12月28日).取自http://www.safe.gov.cn/safe/2018/1228/11069.html.
国务院,2013.关于印发2013年贫困地区儿童营养改善项目方案的通知.取自http://www.nhfpc.gov.cn/fys/s3585/201311/25bcc2db06774177bd30e0bcc516c67e.shtml.
国务院,2018.卫生健康委关于印发母婴安全行动计划(2018-2020年)和健康儿童行动计划(2018-2020年)的通知.取自http://www.gov.cn/gongbao/content/2018/content_5327474.htm.
江帆.(2014).儿童早期发展-新时期儿童保健工作的挑战.中国儿童保健杂志,22(3),228-230.
教育部,2006.中华人民共和国义务教育法.取自http://www.moe.gov.cn/s78/A02/zfs__left/s5911/moe_619/201001/t20100129_15687.html.
林莞娟,王辉,周晓露.(2014).教育的自选择与比较优势研究:基于中国的实证分析.经济科学,(01),75-89.
罗仁福,梁夏,刘承芳,张林秀,岳爱.(2016).陕南农村地区 6～ 12 月龄婴儿贫血的风险因素分析.中国当代儿科杂志,18(8),736-741.
全国人民代表大会.(1995).中华人民共和国劳动法.取自http://www.npc.gov.cn/wxzl/gongbao/2000-12/05/content_5004622.htm.
Aboud,F.E.,& Yousafzai,A.K.(2015).Global health and development in early childhood.Annual Review of Psychology,66,433-457.
Atmore,E.,van Niekerk,L.J.,& Ashley-Cooper,M.(2012).Challenges Facing the Early Childhood Development Sector in South Africa.South African Journal of Childhood Education,2(1),120-139.
Black,M.M.,& Surkan,P.J.(2015).Child development and maternal wellbeing:Family perspectives for low-income and middle-income countries.The Lancet Global Health,3(8),e426-e427.
Burger,K.(2010).How does early childhood care and education affect cognitive development?An international review of the effects of early interventions for children from different social backgrounds.Early Childhood Research Quarterly,25(2),140-165.
Chang,F.,Min,W.,Shi,Y.,Kenny,K.,& Loyalka,P.(2016).Educational expectations and dropout behavior among junior high students in rural China.China & World Economy,24(3),67-85.
Chen,X.,Liu,C.,Zhang,L.,Shi,Y.,& Rozelle,S.(2010).Does taking one step back get you two steps forward?Grade retention and school performance in poor areas in rural China.International Journal of Educational Development,30(6),544-559.
Cunha,F.,Heckman,J.J.,Lochner,L.,& Masterov,D.V.(2006).Interpreting the evidence on life cycle skill formation.Handbook of the Economics of Education,1,697-812.
Currie,J.(2001).Early childhood education programs.Journal of Economic Perspectives,15(2),213-238.
De Brauw,A.,& Rozelle,S.(2008).Reconciling the returns to education in off‐farm wage employment in rural China.Review of Development Economics,12(1),57-71.
Garcia,M.H.,Pence,A.,& Evans,J.(Eds.).(2008).Africa’s Future,Africa’s Challenge:Early Childhood Care and Development in Sub-Saharan Africa.Washington DC:The World Bank.
Gertler,P.,Heckman,J.,Pinto,R.,Zanolini,A.,Vermeersch,C.,Walker,S.,& Grantham-McGregor,S.(2014).Labor market returns to an early childhood stimulation intervention in Jamaica.Science,344(6187),998-1001.
Heckman,J.J.(2013).Giving Kids a Fair Chance.London:MIT Press.
Heckman,J.J.(2018,November).An effective Strategy for Reducing Inequality and Promoting Social Mobility by Creating Skills.Parenting the Future:International Conference on Early Childhood Development in Rural China,Xi’an China.
He,X.,Chang,F.,Wang,H.,Dill,S.,Rozelle,S.,& Loyalka,P.(2018).IQ,Grit,and Academix Achievement:Evidence from Rural China.Working paper,Rural Education Action Program,Stanford University.
Jin,X.,Sun,Y.,Jiang,F.,Ma,J.,Morgan,C.,& Shen,X.(2007).“Care for Development” intervention in rural China:A prospective follow-up study.Journal of Developmental & Behavioral Pediatrics,28(3),213-218.
Luo,R.,Jia,F.,Yue,A.,Zhang,L.,Lyu,Q.,Shi,Y.,& Rozelle,S.(2017).Passive parenting and its association with early child development.Early Child Development and Care,1-15.
Luo,R.,Shi,Y.,Zhou,H.,Yue,A.,Zhang,L.,Sylvia,S.,& Rozelle,S.(2015).Micronutrient deficiencies and developmental delays among infants:Evidence from a cross-sectional survey in rural China.BMJ Open,5(10),e008400.
Luo,R.,Yue,A.,Emmers,D.,Warrinnier,N.,Rozelle,S.,& Sylvia,S.(2019).Using Community Health Workers to Deliver an Integrated Parenting Program in Rural China:A Cluster-randomized Controlled Trial.Working paper,Rural Education Action Program,Stanford University.
Martorell,Reynaldo.(1997).“Undernutrition during pregnancy and early childhood:Consequences for Cognitive and behavioral development.” In:Mary E.Young Editor (Ed.),Early child development:investing in our children’s future.Amsterdam and New York:Elsevier Science BV.
National Research Council.(2000).Early Childhood Intervention:Views From the Field:Report of A Workshop.Washington DC:National Academies Press.
Naudeau,S.,Martinez,S.,Premand,P.,& Filmer,D.(2011).Chapter 1:Cognitive development among young children in low-income countries.In Editor (Eds.),No Small Matter:The Impact of Poverty,Shocks,and Human Capital Investments in Early Childhood Development (pp.9-50).Washington DC:The World Bank.
Schady,N.,Behrman,J.,Araujo,M.C.,Azuero,R.,Bernal,R.,Bravo,D.,& Vakis,R.(2015).Wealth Gradients in Early Childhood Cognitive Development in Five Latin American Countries.Journal of Human Resources,50(2),446-463.
Sylvia,S.,Warrinnier,N.,Luo,R.,Yue,A.,Attanasio,O.,Medina,A.,& Rozelle,S.(2018).From Quantity to Quality:Delivering a Home-based Parenting Intervention through China’s Family Planning Cadres.Working paper,Rural Education Action Program,Stanford University.
Van der Gaag,J.,& Tan,J.P.(1998).The Benefits of Early Child Development Programs:An Economic Analysis.Washington DC:The World Bank.
Wang,L.,Liang,W.,Yu,C.,Li,M.,Zhang,S.,Sun,Y.,& Luo,R.(2018).Are Infant/Toddler Developmental Delays a Problem across Rural China.Working paper,Rural Education Action Program,Stanford University.
Wang,L.,Qian,Y.,Warrinnier,N.,Song C.,Sylvia,S.,& Rozelle,S.(2019).Medium-term Effects of a Home-Based Parenting Intervention:A Follow-Up of a Cluster Randomized Controlled Trial in Rural China.Working paper,Rural Education Action Program,Stanford University.
Wang,L.,Sun,Y.,Liu,B.,Zheng,L.,Li,M.,Bai,Y.,& Rozelle,S.(2018).Is Infant/Toddler Anemia a Problem across Rural China?A Mixed-Methods Analysis.International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health,15(9),1825.
Wei,Q.W.,Zhang,J.X.,Scherpbier,R.W.,Zhao,C.X.,Luo,S.S.,Wang,X.L.,& Guo,S.F.(2015).High prevalence of developmental delay among children under three years of age in poverty-stricken areas of China.Public Health,129(12),1610-1617.
Wu,J.(2013,December).The Financial and Economic Assessment of China's High Speed Rail Investments:A Preliminary Analysis.In International Transport Forum Discussion Papers (No.2013/28).OECD Publishing.
Wu,J.and Wang,D.(2010).The research on the operational model and project evaluation of the high speed railway network.Working paper.
Yang,Y.,Wang,H.,Zhang,L.,Sylvia,S.,Luo,R.,Shi,Y.,& Rozelle,S.(2015).The Han-Minority Achievement Gap,Language,and Returns to Schools in Rural China.Economic Development and Cultural Change,63(2),319-359.
Yi,H.,Li,G.,Li,L.,Loyalka,P.,Zhang,L.,Xu,J.,& Chu,J.(2018).Assessing the Quality of Upper-Secondary Vocational Education and Training:Evidence from China.Comparative Education Review,62(2),199-230.
Yue,A.,Marsh,L.,Zhou,H.,Medina,A.,Luo,R.,Shi,Y.,& Rozelle,S.(2016).Nutritional deficiencies,the absence of information and caregiver shortcomings:A qualitative analysis of infant feeding practices in rural China.PloS One,11(4),e0153385.
Yue,A.,Shi,Y.,Luo,R.,Chen,J.,Garth,J.,Zhang,J.,& Rozelle,S.(2017).China’s invisible crisis:Cognitive delays among rural toddlers and the absence of modern parenting.The China Journal,78(1),50-80.
Yue,A.,Tang,B.,Shi,Y.,Tang,J.,Shang,G.,Medina,A.,& Rozelle,S.(2018).Rural education across China’s 40 years of reform:Past successes and future challenges.China Agricultural Economic Review,10(1),93-118.
Zhang,J.,Zhao,Y.,Park,A.,& Song,X.(2005).Economic returns to schooling in urban China,1988 to 2001.Journal of Comparative Economics,33(4),730-752.
Zhang,S.,Dang,R.,Yang,N.,Bai,Y.,Wang,L.,Abbey,C.,& Rozelle,S.(2018).Effect of Caregiver’s Mental Health on Early Childhood Development across Different Rural Communities in China.International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health,15(11),2341.
Zhao,Q.,Wang,X.,& Rozelle ,S.(2018).Better Cognition,Better School Performance?Evidence from Primary Schools in China.Working paper,Rural Education Action Program,Stanford University.
国家外汇管理局,2018.各种货币对美元折算率表(2018年12月28日).取自http://www.safe.gov.cn/safe/2018/1228/11069.html.
国务院,2013.关于印发2013年贫困地区儿童营养改善项目方案的通知.取自http://www.nhfpc.gov.cn/fys/s3585/201311/25bcc2db06774177bd30e0bcc516c67e.shtml.
国务院,2018.卫生健康委关于印发母婴安全行动计划(2018-2020年)和健康儿童行动计划(2018-2020年)的通知.取自http://www.gov.cn/gongbao/content/2018/content_5327474.htm.
江帆.(2014).儿童早期发展-新时期儿童保健工作的挑战.中国儿童保健杂志,22(3),228-230.
教育部,2006.中华人民共和国义务教育法.取自http://www.moe.gov.cn/s78/A02/zfs__left/s5911/moe_619/201001/t20100129_15687.html.
林莞娟,王辉,周晓露.(2014).教育的自选择与比较优势研究:基于中国的实证分析.经济科学,(01),75-89.
罗仁福,梁夏,刘承芳,张林秀,岳爱.(2016).陕南农村地区 6～ 12 月龄婴儿贫血的风险因素分析.中国当代儿科杂志,18(8),736-741.
全国人民代表大会.(1995).中华人民共和国劳动法.取自http://www.npc.gov.cn/wxzl/gongbao/2000-12/05/content_5004622.htm.
Aboud,F.E.,& Yousafzai,A.K.(2015).Global health and development in early childhood.Annual Review of Psychology,66,433-457.
Atmore,E.,van Niekerk,L.J.,& Ashley-Cooper,M.(2012).Challenges Facing the Early Childhood Development Sector in South Africa.South African Journal of Childhood Education,2(1),120-139.
Black,M.M.,& Surkan,P.J.(2015).Child development and maternal wellbeing:Family perspectives for low-income and middle-income countries.The Lancet Global Health,3(8),e426-e427.
Burger,K.(2010).How does early childhood care and education affect cognitive development?An international review of the effects of early interventions for children from different social backgrounds.Early Childhood Research Quarterly,25(2),140-165.
Chang,F.,Min,W.,Shi,Y.,Kenny,K.,& Loyalka,P.(2016).Educational expectations and dropout behavior among junior high students in rural China.China & World Economy,24(3),67-85.
Chen,X.,Liu,C.,Zhang,L.,Shi,Y.,& Rozelle,S.(2010).Does taking one step back get you two steps forward?Grade retention and school performance in poor areas in rural China.International Journal of Educational Development,30(6),544-559.
Cunha,F.,Heckman,J.J.,Lochner,L.,& Masterov,D.V.(2006).Interpreting the evidence on life cycle skill formation.Handbook of the Economics of Education,1,697-812.
Currie,J.(2001).Early childhood education programs.Journal of Economic Perspectives,15(2),213-238.
De Brauw,A.,& Rozelle,S.(2008).Reconciling the returns to education in off‐farm wage employment in rural China.Review of Development Economics,12(1),57-71.
Garcia,M.H.,Pence,A.,& Evans,J.(Eds.).(2008).Africa’s Future,Africa’s Challenge:Early Childhood Care and Development in Sub-Saharan Africa.Washington DC:The World Bank.
Gertler,P.,Heckman,J.,Pinto,R.,Zanolini,A.,Vermeersch,C.,Walker,S.,& Grantham-McGregor,S.(2014).Labor market returns to an early childhood stimulation intervention in Jamaica.Science,344(6187),998-1001.
Heckman,J.J.(2013).Giving Kids a Fair Chance.London:MIT Press.
Heckman,J.J.(2018,November).An effective Strategy for Reducing Inequality and Promoting Social Mobility by Creating Skills.Parenting the Future:International Conference on Early Childhood Development in Rural China,Xi’an China.
He,X.,Chang,F.,Wang,H.,Dill,S.,Rozelle,S.,& Loyalka,P.(2018).IQ,Grit,and Academix Achievement:Evidence from Rural China.Working paper,Rural Education Action Program,Stanford University.
Jin,X.,Sun,Y.,Jiang,F.,Ma,J.,Morgan,C.,& Shen,X.(2007).“Care for Development” intervention in rural China:A prospective follow-up study.Journal of Developmental & Behavioral Pediatrics,28(3),213-218.
Luo,R.,Jia,F.,Yue,A.,Zhang,L.,Lyu,Q.,Shi,Y.,& Rozelle,S.(2017).Passive parenting and its association with early child development.Early Child Development and Care,1-15.
Luo,R.,Shi,Y.,Zhou,H.,Yue,A.,Zhang,L.,Sylvia,S.,& Rozelle,S.(2015).Micronutrient deficiencies and developmental delays among infants:Evidence from a cross-sectional survey in rural China.BMJ Open,5(10),e008400.
Luo,R.,Yue,A.,Emmers,D.,Warrinnier,N.,Rozelle,S.,& Sylvia,S.(2019).Using Community Health Workers to Deliver an Integrated Parenting Program in Rural China:A Cluster-randomized Controlled Trial.Working paper,Rural Education Action Program,Stanford University.
Martorell,Reynaldo.(1997).“Undernutrition during pregnancy and early childhood:Consequences for Cognitive and behavioral development.” In:Mary E.Young Editor (Ed.),Early child development:investing in our children’s future.Amsterdam and New York:Elsevier Science BV.
National Research Council.(2000).Early Childhood Intervention:Views From the Field:Report of A Workshop.Washington DC:National Academies Press.
Naudeau,S.,Martinez,S.,Premand,P.,& Filmer,D.(2011).Chapter 1:Cognitive development among young children in low-income countries.In Editor (Eds.),No Small Matter:The Impact of Poverty,Shocks,and Human Capital Investments in Early Childhood Development (pp.9-50).Washington DC:The World Bank.
Schady,N.,Behrman,J.,Araujo,M.C.,Azuero,R.,Bernal,R.,Bravo,D.,& Vakis,R.(2015).Wealth Gradients in Early Childhood Cognitive Development in Five Latin American Countries.Journal of Human Resources,50(2),446-463.
Sylvia,S.,Warrinnier,N.,Luo,R.,Yue,A.,Attanasio,O.,Medina,A.,& Rozelle,S.(2018).From Quantity to Quality:Delivering a Home-based Parenting Intervention through China’s Family Planning Cadres.Working paper,Rural Education Action Program,Stanford University.
Van der Gaag,J.,& Tan,J.P.(1998).The Benefits of Early Child Development Programs:An Economic Analysis.Washington DC:The World Bank.
Wang,L.,Liang,W.,Yu,C.,Li,M.,Zhang,S.,Sun,Y.,& Luo,R.(2018).Are Infant/Toddler Developmental Delays a Problem across Rural China.Working paper,Rural Education Action Program,Stanford University.
Wang,L.,Qian,Y.,Warrinnier,N.,Song C.,Sylvia,S.,& Rozelle,S.(2019).Medium-term Effects of a Home-Based Parenting Intervention:A Follow-Up of a Cluster Randomized Controlled Trial in Rural China.Working paper,Rural Education Action Program,Stanford University.
Wang,L.,Sun,Y.,Liu,B.,Zheng,L.,Li,M.,Bai,Y.,& Rozelle,S.(2018).Is Infant/Toddler Anemia a Problem across Rural China?A Mixed-Methods Analysis.International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health,15(9),1825.
Wei,Q.W.,Zhang,J.X.,Scherpbier,R.W.,Zhao,C.X.,Luo,S.S.,Wang,X.L.,& Guo,S.F.(2015).High prevalence of developmental delay among children under three years of age in poverty-stricken areas of China.Public Health,129(12),1610-1617.
Wu,J.(2013,December).The Financial and Economic Assessment of China's High Speed Rail Investments:A Preliminary Analysis.In International Transport Forum Discussion Papers (No.2013/28).OECD Publishing.
Wu,J.and Wang,D.(2010).The research on the operational model and project evaluation of the high speed railway network.Working paper.
Yang,Y.,Wang,H.,Zhang,L.,Sylvia,S.,Luo,R.,Shi,Y.,& Rozelle,S.(2015).The Han-Minority Achievement Gap,Language,and Returns to Schools in Rural China.Economic Development and Cultural Change,63(2),319-359.
Yi,H.,Li,G.,Li,L.,Loyalka,P.,Zhang,L.,Xu,J.,& Chu,J.(2018).Assessing the Quality of Upper-Secondary Vocational Education and Training:Evidence from China.Comparative Education Review,62(2),199-230.
Yue,A.,Marsh,L.,Zhou,H.,Medina,A.,Luo,R.,Shi,Y.,& Rozelle,S.(2016).Nutritional deficiencies,the absence of information and caregiver shortcomings:A qualitative analysis of infant feeding practices in rural China.PloS One,11(4),e0153385.
Yue,A.,Shi,Y.,Luo,R.,Chen,J.,Garth,J.,Zhang,J.,& Rozelle,S.(2017).China’s invisible crisis:Cognitive delays among rural toddlers and the absence of modern parenting.The China Journal,78(1),50-80.
Yue,A.,Tang,B.,Shi,Y.,Tang,J.,Shang,G.,Medina,A.,& Rozelle,S.(2018).Rural education across China’s 40 years of reform:Past successes and future challenges.China Agricultural Economic Review,10(1),93-118.
Zhang,J.,Zhao,Y.,Park,A.,& Song,X.(2005).Economic returns to schooling in urban China,1988 to 2001.Journal of Comparative Economics,33(4),730-752.
Zhang,S.,Dang,R.,Yang,N.,Bai,Y.,Wang,L.,Abbey,C.,& Rozelle,S.(2018).Effect of Caregiver’s Mental Health on Early Childhood Development across Different Rural Communities in China.International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health,15(11),2341.
Zhao,Q.,Wang,X.,& Rozelle ,S.(2018).Better Cognition,Better School Performance?Evidence from Primary Schools in China.Working paper,Rural Education Action Program,Stanford University.
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