基于SOLANUM模型的甘肃中东部马铃薯潜在产量研究
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摘要
为探究马铃薯专用生长模拟模型SOLANUM对甘肃省中东部马铃薯产量预测的适用性,并分析该地区主要气候因子对马铃薯产能差的影响。本试验以3个马铃薯基因型为参试材料,利用SOLANUM模型计算并校准甘肃省天水市和定西市马铃薯模型参数,并对SOLANUM模型进行统计学的模型评价。结果表明,SOLANUM模型在甘肃省适用性评价中,产量和冠层覆盖度模拟结果相对均方根误差(RRMSE)均在16%～76.2%之间,模型效应系数(EF)在0.068～0.805之间。相关性分析表明,产能差变化与太阳辐射变化相关系数为0.8,与年降雨量变化相关系数为0.71;潜在产量与年降雨量相关系数为0.92,与太阳辐射相关系数为0.78;实际产量与年降雨量相关系数为0.89,与太阳辐射相关系数为0.68。综上,SOLANUM模型对甘肃省中东部地区马铃薯潜在产量和冠层覆盖度模拟具有适用性,但还需对马铃薯生长发育和生育期长短的估算进行深入研究,从而提高模型模拟精度和适用性。为缩小产能差,甘肃省应选择晚熟抗旱马铃薯品种种植。本研究结果为补充SOLANUM模型模拟精度和提高甘肃省马铃薯潜在产量提供了决策依据。
The aim of this study was to explore the applicability of the potato-specific growth simulation model SOLANUM to the prediction of potato potential yield in central and eastern Gansu province and analyze the effect of main climatic factors on potato yield gap in the region. Three potato genotypes were employed to calculate and calibrate the model parameters of potato varieties in Tianshui and Dingxi city of Gansu province by using SOLANUM model,and evaluate the SOLANUM model statistically. The results showed that the root-mean-square error( RRMSE) of both yield and canopy coverage simulation results in the suitability evaluation of the SOLANUM model in Gansu province was ranged from 16%to 76.2%,and the model Forecasting Efficiency( EF) was between 0.068 and 0.805. The correlation analysis showed that the correlation coefficient between productivity difference change and solar radiation change is 0. 8,and the correlation coefficient between productivity difference change and annual rainfall change is 0. 71. The correlation coefficient between potential yield and annual rainfall was 0.92,and that between potential yield and annual rainfall was0.78. The correlation coefficient between actual yield and annual rainfall was 0.89,and that between actual yield and annual rainfall was 0.68. In summary,the SOLANUM model has applicability to the simulation of potato potential yield and canopy cover in the central and eastern regions of Gansu province,however,it is necessary to conduct an in-depth study on the estimation of potato growth and growth period,so as to improve the accuracy and applicability of the model simulation. It was suggested that late-maturing varieties should be cultivated in Gansu province to reduce the yield gap.The results provid decision-making basis for supplementing the simulation accuracy of SOLANUM model and increasing the potential yield of potato in Gansu province.
The aim of this study was to explore the applicability of the potato-specific growth simulation model SOLANUM to the prediction of potato potential yield in central and eastern Gansu province and analyze the effect of main climatic factors on potato yield gap in the region. Three potato genotypes were employed to calculate and calibrate the model parameters of potato varieties in Tianshui and Dingxi city of Gansu province by using SOLANUM model,and evaluate the SOLANUM model statistically. The results showed that the root-mean-square error( RRMSE) of both yield and canopy coverage simulation results in the suitability evaluation of the SOLANUM model in Gansu province was ranged from 16%to 76.2%,and the model Forecasting Efficiency( EF) was between 0.068 and 0.805. The correlation analysis showed that the correlation coefficient between productivity difference change and solar radiation change is 0. 8,and the correlation coefficient between productivity difference change and annual rainfall change is 0. 71. The correlation coefficient between potential yield and annual rainfall was 0.92,and that between potential yield and annual rainfall was0.78. The correlation coefficient between actual yield and annual rainfall was 0.89,and that between actual yield and annual rainfall was 0.68. In summary,the SOLANUM model has applicability to the simulation of potato potential yield and canopy cover in the central and eastern regions of Gansu province,however,it is necessary to conduct an in-depth study on the estimation of potato growth and growth period,so as to improve the accuracy and applicability of the model simulation. It was suggested that late-maturing varieties should be cultivated in Gansu province to reduce the yield gap.The results provid decision-making basis for supplementing the simulation accuracy of SOLANUM model and increasing the potential yield of potato in Gansu province.
引文
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[2]于洪剑,白爱枝,杨晓炜,李瑞云.马铃薯干燥方法的研究进展[J].核农学报,2017,31(4):743-748
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[14]杨晓光,刘志娟.作物产量差研究进展[J].中国农业科学,2014,47(14):2731-2741
[15] Condori B,Hijmans R J,Quiroz R,Ledent J F. Quantifying the expression of potato genetic diversity in the high Andes through growth analysis and modeling[J]. Field Crops Research,2010,119(1):135-144
[16] Keating B A,Carberry P S,Hammer G L,Probert M E,Robertson M J,Holzworth D,Huth NⅠ,Hargreaves J N G,Meinke H,Hochman Z,Mc Lean G,Verburg K,Snow V,Dimes J P,Silburn M,Wang E. An overview of APSIM,a model designed for farming systems simulation[J]. European Journal of Agronomy,2003,18(3):267-288
[17]李亚杰,石强,何建强,张俊莲,白江平,王蒂.马铃薯生长模型研究进展及其应用[J].干旱地区农业研究,2014,32(2):126-136
[18] Quiroz R,Loayza H,Barreda C,Gavilán C,Posadas A,Ramírez D A. Linking process-based potato models with light reflectance data:Does model complexity enhance yield prediction accuracy?[J].European Journal of Agronomy,2017,82:104-112
[19]王颖,梁淑敏,潘哲超,李燕山,谢开云,Roberto Quiroz,隋启君.基于Solanum模型的云贵高原大春马铃薯潜在产量研究[J].中国农业资源与区划,2017,38(11):31-39
[20]王晓斌,王瀚,胡开明,李亚杰,秦天元,曾文婕,李鑫,张楷露,张俊莲,白江平.基于层次分析法和GGE双标图对引进马铃薯种质资源的综合评价[J].植物遗传资源学报,2017,18(6):1067-1078
[21]文新亚,陈阜.基于DSSAT模型模拟气候变化对不同品种冬小麦产量潜力的影响[J].农业工程学报,2011,27(S2):74-79
[22]张耀耀,刘建刚,谷中颖,陈阜,褚庆全.气候变化对沧州地区冬小麦产量潜力的影响[J].中国农业大学学报,2014,19(4):31-37
[23] Angulo C, Becker M, Wassmann R. Yield gap analysis and assessment of climate-induced yield trends of irrigated rice in selected provinces of the Philippines[J]. Journal of Agriculture and Rural Development in the Tropics and Subtropics,2012,113(1):61-68
[24] Chu T W,Shirmohammadi A. Evaluation of the SWAT model’s hydrology component in the piedmont physiographic region of Maryland[J]. Transactions of the ASAE,2004,47(4):1057-1073
[25] Vazquezamabile G G, Engel B A. Use of SWAT to compute groundwater table depth and streamflow in the Muscatatuck River watershed[J]. Transactions of the Asae American Society of Agricultural Engineers,2005,48(3):991-1003
[26] Singh J, Knapp HⅤ, Arnold J G, Demissie M. Hydrologic modeling of the Iroquois River watershed using HSPF and SWAT[J]. Jawra Journal of the American Water Resources Association,2010,41(2):343-360
[27] Moriasi D N,Arnold J G,Liew M WⅤ,Bingner R L,Harmel R D, Veith T L. Model evaluation guidelines for systematic quantification of accuracy in watershed simulations[J]. Transactions of the Asabe,2007,50(3):885-900
[28] Nash J E,Sutcliffe J V. River flow forecasting through conceptual models partⅠ:A discussion of principles[J]. Journal of Hydrology,1970,10(3):282-290
[29] Liu H L,Yang J Y,Drury C F,Reynolds W D,Tan C S,Bai Y L.Using the DSSAT-CERES-Maize model to simulate crop yield and nitrogen cycling in fields under long-term continuous maize production[J]. Nutrient Cycling in Agroecosystems,2011,89(3):313-328
[30] Condori B,Hijmans R J,Ledent J F,Quiroz R. Managing potato biodiversity to cope with frost risk in the high Andes:A modeling perspective[J]. PLoS One,2014,9(1):e81510
[31] Moriondo M,Bindi M,Sinclair T. Analysis of Solanaceae species harvest-organ growth by linear increase in harvest index and harvestorgan growth rate[J]. Journal of the American Society for Horticultural Science American Society for Horticultural Science,2005,130(6):799-805
[32] Tourneux C,Devaux A,Camacho M,Mamani P,Ledent J F. Effect of water shortage on six potato genotypes in the highlands of Bolivia(Ⅱ):Water relations,physiological parameters[J]. Agronomie,2003,23(2):181-190
[33] Ng N,Loomis R S. Simulation of growth and yield of the potato Crop[J]. Potato Research,1984,27(3):305-306
[34] Van Diepen C A,Wolf J,Van Keulen H,Rappoldt C. WOFOST:a simulation model of crop production[J]. Soil Use&Management,1989,5(1):16-24
[2]于洪剑,白爱枝,杨晓炜,李瑞云.马铃薯干燥方法的研究进展[J].核农学报,2017,31(4):743-748
[3] Haverkort A J,Verhagen A. Climate change and its repercussions for the potato supply chain[J]. Potato Research,2008,51(3/4):223-237
[4] Boote K J,Kropff M J,Bindraban P S. Physiology and modelling of traits in crop plants:Implications for genetic improvements[J].Agricultural Systems,2001,70(2):395-420
[5] Hammer G L,Vanderlip R L. Genotype-by-environment interaction in grain sorghum I. effects of temperature on radiation use efficiency[J]. Crop Science,1989,29(2):370-376
[6] Mikhaila S,Pierre M,Peterd J. Quantifying effects of simple wheat traits on yield in water-limited environments using a modelling approach[J]. Agricultural&Forest Meteorology,2009,149(6):1095-1104
[7] Hijmans R J. The effect of climate change on global potato production[J]. American Journal of Potato Research,2003,80(4):271-279
[8] Kooman P L,Haverkort A J. Modelling development and growth of the potato crop influenced by temperature and daylength:LINTULPOTATO[M]//Haverkort A J,Mackerron D K L. Potato Ecology&Modelling of Crops Under Conditions Limiting Growth. Dordrecht:Springer,1995:41-59
[9] Fleisher D H,Condori B,Quiroz R,Alva A,Asseng S,Barreda C,Bindi M,Boote K J,Ferrise R,Franke A C,Govindakrishnan P M,Harahagazwe D,Hoogenboom G,Naresh Kumar S,Merante P,Nendel C,Olesen J E,Parker P S,Raes D,Raymundo R,Ruane A C,Stockle C,SupitⅠ,Vanuytrecht E,Wolf J,Woli P. A potato model intercomparison across varying climates and productivity levels[J]. Global Change Biology,2017,23(3):1258-1281
[10] White J W, Hoogenboom G, Kimball B A, Wall G W.Methodologies for simulating impacts of climate change on crop production[J]. Field Crops Research,2011,124(3):357-368
[11] Evans L T. Crop Evolution,Adaptation and Yield[D]. New York:Cambridge University Press,1996:23-31
[12] Evans L T, Fischer R A. Yield potential:Its definition,measurement,and significance[J]. Crop Science,1999,39(6):1544-1551
[13] Licker R,Johnston M,Foley J A,Barford C,Kucharik C J,Monfreda C,Ramankutty N. Mind the gap:How do climate and agricultural management explain the‘yield gap’of croplands around the world?[J]. Global Ecology&Biogeography,2010,19(6):769-782
[14]杨晓光,刘志娟.作物产量差研究进展[J].中国农业科学,2014,47(14):2731-2741
[15] Condori B,Hijmans R J,Quiroz R,Ledent J F. Quantifying the expression of potato genetic diversity in the high Andes through growth analysis and modeling[J]. Field Crops Research,2010,119(1):135-144
[16] Keating B A,Carberry P S,Hammer G L,Probert M E,Robertson M J,Holzworth D,Huth NⅠ,Hargreaves J N G,Meinke H,Hochman Z,Mc Lean G,Verburg K,Snow V,Dimes J P,Silburn M,Wang E. An overview of APSIM,a model designed for farming systems simulation[J]. European Journal of Agronomy,2003,18(3):267-288
[17]李亚杰,石强,何建强,张俊莲,白江平,王蒂.马铃薯生长模型研究进展及其应用[J].干旱地区农业研究,2014,32(2):126-136
[18] Quiroz R,Loayza H,Barreda C,Gavilán C,Posadas A,Ramírez D A. Linking process-based potato models with light reflectance data:Does model complexity enhance yield prediction accuracy?[J].European Journal of Agronomy,2017,82:104-112
[19]王颖,梁淑敏,潘哲超,李燕山,谢开云,Roberto Quiroz,隋启君.基于Solanum模型的云贵高原大春马铃薯潜在产量研究[J].中国农业资源与区划,2017,38(11):31-39
[20]王晓斌,王瀚,胡开明,李亚杰,秦天元,曾文婕,李鑫,张楷露,张俊莲,白江平.基于层次分析法和GGE双标图对引进马铃薯种质资源的综合评价[J].植物遗传资源学报,2017,18(6):1067-1078
[21]文新亚,陈阜.基于DSSAT模型模拟气候变化对不同品种冬小麦产量潜力的影响[J].农业工程学报,2011,27(S2):74-79
[22]张耀耀,刘建刚,谷中颖,陈阜,褚庆全.气候变化对沧州地区冬小麦产量潜力的影响[J].中国农业大学学报,2014,19(4):31-37
[23] Angulo C, Becker M, Wassmann R. Yield gap analysis and assessment of climate-induced yield trends of irrigated rice in selected provinces of the Philippines[J]. Journal of Agriculture and Rural Development in the Tropics and Subtropics,2012,113(1):61-68
[24] Chu T W,Shirmohammadi A. Evaluation of the SWAT model’s hydrology component in the piedmont physiographic region of Maryland[J]. Transactions of the ASAE,2004,47(4):1057-1073
[25] Vazquezamabile G G, Engel B A. Use of SWAT to compute groundwater table depth and streamflow in the Muscatatuck River watershed[J]. Transactions of the Asae American Society of Agricultural Engineers,2005,48(3):991-1003
[26] Singh J, Knapp HⅤ, Arnold J G, Demissie M. Hydrologic modeling of the Iroquois River watershed using HSPF and SWAT[J]. Jawra Journal of the American Water Resources Association,2010,41(2):343-360
[27] Moriasi D N,Arnold J G,Liew M WⅤ,Bingner R L,Harmel R D, Veith T L. Model evaluation guidelines for systematic quantification of accuracy in watershed simulations[J]. Transactions of the Asabe,2007,50(3):885-900
[28] Nash J E,Sutcliffe J V. River flow forecasting through conceptual models partⅠ:A discussion of principles[J]. Journal of Hydrology,1970,10(3):282-290
[29] Liu H L,Yang J Y,Drury C F,Reynolds W D,Tan C S,Bai Y L.Using the DSSAT-CERES-Maize model to simulate crop yield and nitrogen cycling in fields under long-term continuous maize production[J]. Nutrient Cycling in Agroecosystems,2011,89(3):313-328
[30] Condori B,Hijmans R J,Ledent J F,Quiroz R. Managing potato biodiversity to cope with frost risk in the high Andes:A modeling perspective[J]. PLoS One,2014,9(1):e81510
[31] Moriondo M,Bindi M,Sinclair T. Analysis of Solanaceae species harvest-organ growth by linear increase in harvest index and harvestorgan growth rate[J]. Journal of the American Society for Horticultural Science American Society for Horticultural Science,2005,130(6):799-805
[32] Tourneux C,Devaux A,Camacho M,Mamani P,Ledent J F. Effect of water shortage on six potato genotypes in the highlands of Bolivia(Ⅱ):Water relations,physiological parameters[J]. Agronomie,2003,23(2):181-190
[33] Ng N,Loomis R S. Simulation of growth and yield of the potato Crop[J]. Potato Research,1984,27(3):305-306
[34] Van Diepen C A,Wolf J,Van Keulen H,Rappoldt C. WOFOST:a simulation model of crop production[J]. Soil Use&Management,1989,5(1):16-24