深圳市2001～2015年甲状腺癌发病现状和趋势分析
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摘要
[目的]探讨2001～2015年深圳居民甲状腺癌的流行现状和发病趋势。[方法]根据深圳市肿瘤登记处收集的2001～2015年户籍居民甲状腺癌发病数据和相应年份的人口资料,计算甲状腺癌发病粗率,以及标准化人口年龄调整发病率(中国人口标化率和世界人口标化率),利用Joinpoint软件进行趋势分析。[结果] 2001～2015年深圳市肿瘤登记处共登记甲状腺癌4309例,粗发病率12.91/10万,中标率为9.50/10万,世标率为10.76/10万,0～74岁累积率为1.02%,35～64岁截缩率为22.93/10万。从性别分布来看,女性发病率明显高于男性,男女发病比为1∶3.03。从时间趋势上看,甲状腺癌发病率呈上升趋势,世标率从2001年的3.55/10万上升至2015年的17.97/10万,APC为11.33%(P<0.01),除65岁以上年龄组外,其余各组均呈现上升趋势。甲状腺癌患者平均发病年龄(41.3±12.0)岁,发病年龄中位数为40.0岁,发病年龄高峰为50～54岁年龄组。[结论]深圳市甲状腺癌近年来呈快速上升趋势,政府部门需制定针对性政策措施,遏制甲状腺癌的过快增长。
[Purpose] To analyze the incidence and epidemiologic trends of thyroid cancer in Shenzhen during 2001 to 2015. [Methods] The thyroid cancer data were collected from Shenzhen Cancer Registry. The crude incidence rate,age-standardized incidence rate by Chinese standard population(ASR China) and age-standardized incidence rate by world standard population(ASR world) of thyroid cancer were calculated. The annual percentage change(APC) of the incidence was analyzed by Joinpoint regression. [Results] There were 4039 new cases of thyroid cancer registered by Shenzhen Cancer Registry from 2001 to 2015. The crude incidence rate was 12.91/10~5,with ASR China of 9.50/10~5 and ASR world of 10.76/10~5. The cumulative incidence rate(0 ～74 years) was1.02%,and the truncated incidence rate(35 ～64 years) was 22.93/10~5. The incidence for females was significantly higher than that for males,with a sex ratio of 1 ∶3.03. During 2001 to 2015,the ASR world of thyroid cancer was increased from 3.55/10~5 to 17.97/10~5(APC=11.33%,P<0.01). The age specific incidence increased in all age groups except the people over the age of 65. The mean age of onset of thyroid cancer was(41.3±12.0) years,with median age of 40.0,and the peak age of onset was 50～54 years. [Conclusion] There is an increasing trend of thyroid cancer in Shenzhen from 2010 to 2015.
[Purpose] To analyze the incidence and epidemiologic trends of thyroid cancer in Shenzhen during 2001 to 2015. [Methods] The thyroid cancer data were collected from Shenzhen Cancer Registry. The crude incidence rate,age-standardized incidence rate by Chinese standard population(ASR China) and age-standardized incidence rate by world standard population(ASR world) of thyroid cancer were calculated. The annual percentage change(APC) of the incidence was analyzed by Joinpoint regression. [Results] There were 4039 new cases of thyroid cancer registered by Shenzhen Cancer Registry from 2001 to 2015. The crude incidence rate was 12.91/10~5,with ASR China of 9.50/10~5 and ASR world of 10.76/10~5. The cumulative incidence rate(0 ～74 years) was1.02%,and the truncated incidence rate(35 ～64 years) was 22.93/10~5. The incidence for females was significantly higher than that for males,with a sex ratio of 1 ∶3.03. During 2001 to 2015,the ASR world of thyroid cancer was increased from 3.55/10~5 to 17.97/10~5(APC=11.33%,P<0.01). The age specific incidence increased in all age groups except the people over the age of 65. The mean age of onset of thyroid cancer was(41.3±12.0) years,with median age of 40.0,and the peak age of onset was 50～54 years. [Conclusion] There is an increasing trend of thyroid cancer in Shenzhen from 2010 to 2015.
引文
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[14]Mu HJ,Li YX,Zhang R,et al.Trend of incidence and mortality of thyroid cancer in five cities in Liaoning province,2000~2011[J].China Cancer,2015,24(11):889-895.[穆慧娟,礼彦侠,张蕊,等.辽宁省五市2000~2011年甲状腺癌发病、死亡现状及流行趋势分析[J].中国肿瘤,2015,24(11):889-895.]
[15]Yang L,Wang N.Study progress on epidemiology of thyroid cancer[J].Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine,2014,48(8):744-748.[杨雷,王宁.甲状腺癌流行病学研究进展[J].中华预防医学杂志,2014,48(8):744-748.]
[16]Ahn HS,Kim HJ,Welch HG.Korea’s thyroid-cancer“epidemic”-screening and overdiagnosis[J].N Engl JMed,2014,371(19):1765-1767.
[17]Vaccarella S,Franceschi S,Bray F,et al.Worldwide thyroid-cancer epidemic?The increasing impact of overdiagnosis[J].N Engl J Med,2016,375(7):614-617.
[18]Yi KH,Kim SY,Kim DH,et al.The Korean guideline for thyroid cancer screening[J].J Korean Med Assoc,2015,58(4):302-312.
[2]Chen WQ,Sun KX,Zheng RS,et al.Report of cancer incidence and mortality in different areas of China,2014[J].China Cancer,2018,27(1):1-14.[陈万青,孙可欣,郑荣寿,等.2014年中国分地区恶性肿瘤发病和死亡分析[J].中国肿瘤,2018,27(1):1-14.]
[3]Shenzhen Statistics Bureau,NBS Survey Office in Shenzhen.Shenzhen statistical yearbook 2016[M].Beijing:China Statistics Press,2016.[深圳市统计局,国家统计局深圳调查队.2016深圳统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2016.]
[4]Wang QS,Chen WQ,Zheng RS,et al.Joinpoint linear regression analysis of cancer age-specific incidence rate and its significance for cancer control[J].China cancer,2013,22(3):180-185.[王庆生,陈万青,郑荣寿,等.癌症年龄别发病率的Joinpoint线性回归分析及其在癌症防控中的意义[J].中国肿瘤,2013,22(3):180-185.]
[5]Kim HJ,Fay MP,Feuer EJ,et al.Permutation tests for joinpoint regression with applications to cancer rates[J].Stat Med,2000,19(3):335-351.
[6]National Cancer Center.Guideline for Chinese cancer registration(2016)[M].Beijing:People’s Medical Publishing House,2016.1-482.[国家癌症中心.中国肿瘤登记工作指导手册(2016)[M].北京:人民卫生出版社,2016.1-482.]
[7]Bao PP,Gong YM,Peng P,et al.Analysis of cancer incidence and mortality in Shanghai,2014[J].China Oncology,2018,28(3):161-176.[鲍萍萍,龚杨明,彭鹏,等.2014年上海市恶性肿瘤发病和死亡特征分析[J].中国癌症杂志,2018,28(3):161-176.]
[8]Zheng WL,Zhang S,Shen CF,et al.Epidemiological characteristics and long-term trends of thyroid cancer in Tianjin[J].China Cancer,2018,27(9):670-674.[郑文龙,张爽,沈成凤.天津市2010~2014年甲状腺癌流行特征及长期发病和死亡趋势分析[J].中国肿瘤,2018,27(9):670-674]
[9]Liang ZH,Cen HS,Wei KR.Thyroid cancer incidence from 1970 to 2012 in Zhongshan city,Guangdong province[J].China Cancer,2016,25(10):752-757.[梁智恒,岑慧珊,魏矿荣.广东省中山市1970~2012年甲状腺癌发病概况[J].中国肿瘤,2016,25(10):752-757.]
[10]Liang D,Li DJ,Shi J.Epidemic trends of thyroid cancer in Hebei province,2010~2013[J].China Cancer,2016,25(12):973-978.[梁迪,李道娟,师金.河北省2010~2013年甲状腺癌流行现状[J].中国肿瘤,2016,25(12):973-978.]
[11]Dong F,Zhang B,Shan GL.Distribution and risk factors of thyroid cancer in China[J].China Oncology,2016,26(1):47-52.[董芬,张彪,单广良.中国甲状腺癌的流行现状和影响因素[J].中国癌症杂志,2016,26(1):47-52.]
[12]Luo YQ,Xu J,He S,et al.Urinary iodine levels and its influencing factors among residents over age of 15 years in Shenzhen city[J].Journal of Hygiene Research,2014,43(6):895-899.[罗艺淇,徐健,何山,等.深圳市15岁以上居民尿碘水平及其影响因素分析[J].卫生研究,2014,43(6):895-899.]
[13]Chen WQ,Zheng RS,Wang N,et al.Comparing Study of Cancer incidence between east and middle-west region in China[J].China Cancer,2013,22(3):161-167.[陈万青,郑荣寿,王宁,等.中国东部与中西部地区恶性肿瘤发病率的比较研究[J].中国肿瘤,2013,22(3):161-167.]
[14]Mu HJ,Li YX,Zhang R,et al.Trend of incidence and mortality of thyroid cancer in five cities in Liaoning province,2000~2011[J].China Cancer,2015,24(11):889-895.[穆慧娟,礼彦侠,张蕊,等.辽宁省五市2000~2011年甲状腺癌发病、死亡现状及流行趋势分析[J].中国肿瘤,2015,24(11):889-895.]
[15]Yang L,Wang N.Study progress on epidemiology of thyroid cancer[J].Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine,2014,48(8):744-748.[杨雷,王宁.甲状腺癌流行病学研究进展[J].中华预防医学杂志,2014,48(8):744-748.]
[16]Ahn HS,Kim HJ,Welch HG.Korea’s thyroid-cancer“epidemic”-screening and overdiagnosis[J].N Engl JMed,2014,371(19):1765-1767.
[17]Vaccarella S,Franceschi S,Bray F,et al.Worldwide thyroid-cancer epidemic?The increasing impact of overdiagnosis[J].N Engl J Med,2016,375(7):614-617.
[18]Yi KH,Kim SY,Kim DH,et al.The Korean guideline for thyroid cancer screening[J].J Korean Med Assoc,2015,58(4):302-312.