鄱阳湖星子站水位变异诊断研究
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摘要
为分析鄱阳湖水位的变异情况,通过综合变异诊断系统对星子站年均水位和逐月平均水位进行变异诊断,设定α=0.05的显著性水平,采用了滑动T检验法、克拉默法、山本法、佩蒂特法等多种经典变异诊断方法对水位序列进行了检验,并将各种检验结果互相比较印证,以避免错误结论。结果表明,检验出的水位序列变异年份集中在1999～2004年,其中2003年的变异最为显著。年均水位的均值减小幅度为1.12m。研究结果可为鄱阳湖流域水文情势分析和水资源利用规划提供指导。
In order to find out the change point of water level in Poyang Lake, the annual mean water level and monthly mean water level of Xingzi station were diagnosed by comprehensive mutation diagnosis system. Sliding T test, Yamamoto method, Pettitt method and other seven kinds of classical diagnostic methods were applied to water level sequence, and a variety of test results confirmed each other to avoid the wrong conclusion. The results show that the change-points of the tested water level were concentrated in 1999-2004, among which the most significant change-point was in 2003. The annual average water level was decreased by 1.12 m. The results can provide guidance for the analysis of hydrological situation and water resources utilization in Poyang Lake basin.
In order to find out the change point of water level in Poyang Lake, the annual mean water level and monthly mean water level of Xingzi station were diagnosed by comprehensive mutation diagnosis system. Sliding T test, Yamamoto method, Pettitt method and other seven kinds of classical diagnostic methods were applied to water level sequence, and a variety of test results confirmed each other to avoid the wrong conclusion. The results show that the change-points of the tested water level were concentrated in 1999-2004, among which the most significant change-point was in 2003. The annual average water level was decreased by 1.12 m. The results can provide guidance for the analysis of hydrological situation and water resources utilization in Poyang Lake basin.
引文
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[10]黄强,孔波,樊晶晶.水文要素变异综合诊断[J].人民黄河,2016,38(10):18-23.(HUANG Qiang, KONG Bo, FAN Jingjing.Hydrological elements comprehensive detecting variation[J]. Yel-low River, 2016,38(10):18-23.(in Chinese))
[11]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社,2007.(WEI Fengying. Modern Climate Statistic Diagnosis andPrediction Technology[M]. Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2007.(in Chinese))
[12]成静清.非一致性年径流序列频率分析计算[D].西北农林科技大学, 2010.(CHEN Jingqing. Hydrologic Frequency Analysis forInconsistent Annual Runoff Series[D]. Northwest A&F University,2010.(in Chinese))
[13]于延胜,陈兴伟. R/S和Mann-Kendall法综合分析水文时间序列未来的趋势特征[J].水资源与水工程学报, 2008,19(3):41-44.(YU Yansheng, CHEN Xingwei. Analysis of future trend charac-teristics of hydro logical time series based on R/S and Mann-Kendall methods[J]. Journal of Water Resources&Water Engi-neering, 2008,19(3):41-44.(in Chinese))
[14]陈广才,朱勇.水文序列时间变异综合诊断方法研究———以潮白河流域为例[A].第二届全国水问题研究学术研讨会[C]. 2009.(CHEN Guangcai, ZHU Yong. Study on synthetic diagnosis ofhydrological sequence time variability-a case on Chaobai Riverbasin[A]. National Water Research Symposium 2009[C].(in Chi-nese))
[15]邹静.长江干流径流变异特性研究[J].水资源研究, 2014,3(3):208-215.(ZOU Jing. The variation of runoff in the Yangtze Riv-er[J]. Journal of Water Resources Research, 2014,3(3):208-215.(in Chinese))
[16]张贤芳,舒强,李偲.叶尔羌河近48年来径流演变规律研究[J].干旱区资源与环境, 2012,26(1):93-97.(ZHANG Xianfang, SHUQiang, LI Cai. Rules of runoff variation of Yarkand River in re-cent 48 years[J]. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environ-ment, 2012,26(1):93-97.(in Chinese))
[17]谢平,陈广才,雷红富.基于Hurst系数的水文变异分析方法[J].应用基础与工程科学学报, 2009,17(1):32-39.(XIE Ping, CHENGuangcai, LEI Hongfu. Hydrological alteration analysis methodbased on hurst coefficient[J]. Journal of Basic Science and Engi-neering, 2009,17(1):32-39.(in Chinese))
[18] Yang Y H, Fei T. Abrupt change of runoff and its major drivingfactors in Haihe River catchment, China.[J]. Journal of Hydrolo-gy, 2009,374(3–4):373-383.
[2]邓育仁,高荣松,丁晶.随机水文学(三)[J].四川水力发电, 1986,(1):85-92.(DENG Yuren, GAO Rongsong, DING Jing. StochasticHydrology(3rd)[J]. Sichuan Water Power, 1986,(1):85-92.(in Chi-nese))
[3]王文圣,金菊良,丁晶.随机水文学[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2016.(WANG Wensheng, JIN Juliang, DING Jing, StochasticHydrology[M]. Beijing:China WaterPower Press, 2016.(in Chi-nese))
[4]王孝礼,夏军.水文时序趋势与变异点的R/S分析法[J].武汉大学学报(工学版), 2002,35(2):10-12.(WANG Xaoli, XIA Jun. R/Sanalysis method of trend and aberrance point on hydrological timeseries[J]. Journal of Wuhan University(Engineering), 2002,35(2):10-12.(in Chinese))
[5]陈广才,谢平.基于启发式分割算法的水文变异分析研究[J].中山大学学报(自然科学版), 2008,47(5):122-125.(CHEN Guangcai,XIE Ping. Change point analysis of hydrology time series based onheuristic segmentation method[J]. Journal of Sun Yat-sen Universi-ty(Nature Science), 2008,47(5):122-125.(in Chinese))
[6]谢平,陈广才,雷红富,等.水文变异诊断系统[J].水力发电学报,2010,29(1):85-91.(XIE Ping, CHEN Guangcai, LEI Hongfu, etal. Hydrological alteration diagnosis system[J]. Journal of Hydro-electric Engeering, 2010,29(1):85-91.(in Chinese))
[7]刘剑宇,张强,顾西辉.水文变异条件下鄱阳湖流域的生态流量[J].生态学报, 2015,35(16):5477-5485.(LIU Jianyu, ZHANG Qiang,GU Xihui. Evaluation of ecological flow with considerations of hy-drological alterations in the Poyang Lake basin[J]. Acta EcologicalSinca, 2015,35(16):5477-5485.(in Chinese))
[8]肖丽英,周翔,彭勇文.鄱阳湖流域径流序列多种变异检测方法的比较[J].南昌工程学院学报, 2016 35(6):85-89.(XIAO Liying,ZHOU Xiang, PENG Yongwen. Comparative analysis of change-point detection of runoff series with different methods in PoyangLake watershed[J]. Journal of Nangchang Institute of Technology,2016,35(6):85-89.(in Chinese))
[9]刘恋,曾繁翔,付志强,等.鄱阳湖星子站水位62年变化规律分析[J].人民长江, 2016,(3):30-32.(LIU Lian, ZENG Fanxiang, FUZhiqiang, et al. Analysis on water lever change at Xingzi hydro-logical station of Poyang Lake for 62 years[J]. Yangtzi River,2016,(3):30-32.(in Chinese))
[10]黄强,孔波,樊晶晶.水文要素变异综合诊断[J].人民黄河,2016,38(10):18-23.(HUANG Qiang, KONG Bo, FAN Jingjing.Hydrological elements comprehensive detecting variation[J]. Yel-low River, 2016,38(10):18-23.(in Chinese))
[11]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社,2007.(WEI Fengying. Modern Climate Statistic Diagnosis andPrediction Technology[M]. Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2007.(in Chinese))
[12]成静清.非一致性年径流序列频率分析计算[D].西北农林科技大学, 2010.(CHEN Jingqing. Hydrologic Frequency Analysis forInconsistent Annual Runoff Series[D]. Northwest A&F University,2010.(in Chinese))
[13]于延胜,陈兴伟. R/S和Mann-Kendall法综合分析水文时间序列未来的趋势特征[J].水资源与水工程学报, 2008,19(3):41-44.(YU Yansheng, CHEN Xingwei. Analysis of future trend charac-teristics of hydro logical time series based on R/S and Mann-Kendall methods[J]. Journal of Water Resources&Water Engi-neering, 2008,19(3):41-44.(in Chinese))
[14]陈广才,朱勇.水文序列时间变异综合诊断方法研究———以潮白河流域为例[A].第二届全国水问题研究学术研讨会[C]. 2009.(CHEN Guangcai, ZHU Yong. Study on synthetic diagnosis ofhydrological sequence time variability-a case on Chaobai Riverbasin[A]. National Water Research Symposium 2009[C].(in Chi-nese))
[15]邹静.长江干流径流变异特性研究[J].水资源研究, 2014,3(3):208-215.(ZOU Jing. The variation of runoff in the Yangtze Riv-er[J]. Journal of Water Resources Research, 2014,3(3):208-215.(in Chinese))
[16]张贤芳,舒强,李偲.叶尔羌河近48年来径流演变规律研究[J].干旱区资源与环境, 2012,26(1):93-97.(ZHANG Xianfang, SHUQiang, LI Cai. Rules of runoff variation of Yarkand River in re-cent 48 years[J]. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environ-ment, 2012,26(1):93-97.(in Chinese))
[17]谢平,陈广才,雷红富.基于Hurst系数的水文变异分析方法[J].应用基础与工程科学学报, 2009,17(1):32-39.(XIE Ping, CHENGuangcai, LEI Hongfu. Hydrological alteration analysis methodbased on hurst coefficient[J]. Journal of Basic Science and Engi-neering, 2009,17(1):32-39.(in Chinese))
[18] Yang Y H, Fei T. Abrupt change of runoff and its major drivingfactors in Haihe River catchment, China.[J]. Journal of Hydrolo-gy, 2009,374(3–4):373-383.
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