组合赋权法-木桶综合指数法在长江生态航道评价中的应用
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摘要
基于生态航道评价理论框架,利用乘法合成原理及博弈论思想将层次分析法(主观赋权法)和熵值法(客观赋权法)计算所得权重进行最优组合,兼顾了决策者的主观价值和数据蕴含的客观性,采用基于木桶理论的综合指数法对评分结果进行非线性分等定级,对长江中游荆江河段生态航道健康状况进行评价.这种评价方法结果表明2016年荆江一期航道整治工程实施后航道健康水平为良好向优的态势,相较施工前和施工期的中等状态,河流各功能状况有所提升,敏感性分析显示权重上下浮动20%航道健康状况基本不变,说明评价稳定可靠,航道整治工程有助于生态航道建设.
Based on the theoretical framework of ecological waterway assessment,the weightcalculation results of the analytic hierarchy process method(a subjective weightingmethod)and the entropy method(an objectiveweighting method)were combinedoptimally,resorting to the multiplicative synthesis principle and the game theory.Thesubjective value of the decision maker and the objectivity of the data were both takeninto account in this combination weighting method.Taking the Jingjiang waterway inthe middle reach of the Yangtze River as a case,the comprehensive index evaluationmethod based on cask short board theory was used to grade score results non-linearlyand to access ecological health condition of the river reach.The results showed that thehealth status of Jingjiang waterway in 2016 after the first-stage waterway regulationproject exceeded good level and approached excellent level.Comparing the fair statebefore and during the waterway regulation project,various functions of the river reachhave been improved.The sensitivity analysis indicated that the health conditions ofwaterway were not sensitive to 20% fluctuation of the weights,suggesting that theevaluation results in the Jingjiang reach is stable and reliable,and the waterwayregulation project is helpful to the construction of ecological waterway.
Based on the theoretical framework of ecological waterway assessment,the weightcalculation results of the analytic hierarchy process method(a subjective weightingmethod)and the entropy method(an objectiveweighting method)were combinedoptimally,resorting to the multiplicative synthesis principle and the game theory.Thesubjective value of the decision maker and the objectivity of the data were both takeninto account in this combination weighting method.Taking the Jingjiang waterway inthe middle reach of the Yangtze River as a case,the comprehensive index evaluationmethod based on cask short board theory was used to grade score results non-linearlyand to access ecological health condition of the river reach.The results showed that thehealth status of Jingjiang waterway in 2016 after the first-stage waterway regulationproject exceeded good level and approached excellent level.Comparing the fair statebefore and during the waterway regulation project,various functions of the river reachhave been improved.The sensitivity analysis indicated that the health conditions ofwaterway were not sensitive to 20% fluctuation of the weights,suggesting that theevaluation results in the Jingjiang reach is stable and reliable,and the waterwayregulation project is helpful to the construction of ecological waterway.
引文
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[9]袁秀丽,任财.一种基于Delphi方法的辐射源威胁等级判断算法[J].信息化研究,2015,(6):21-23Yuan Xiuli,Ren Cai.A threat level evaluation method based on Delphi[J].Informatization Research,2015,(6):21-23
[10]戴俊骋,周尚意,赵宝华,等.关联矩阵法与城市宜居指标的结构关系度量:以中国老年人宜居城市评价指标体系为例[J].地域研究与开发,2011,30(5):60-65Dai Juncheng,Zhou Shangyi,Zhao Baohua,et al.Evaluation of livable cities based on relational matrix analysis:a case study of evaluating livable cities for aged people in China[J].Areal Research and Development,2011,30(5):60-65
[11]姜君.基于熵权与变异系数组合赋权法的模糊综合评价模型[D].北京:首都师范大学,2011Jiang Jun.Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model based on entropy weight and variation coefficient combined weighting method[D].Beijing:Capital Normal University,2011
[12]舒持恺,杨侃,王启明,等.河流健康评价中赋权方法的研究[J].水电能源科学,2017,(2):61-65Shu Chikai,Yang Kan,Wang Qiming,et al.Study on weighting method in river health evaluation[J].Water Resources and Power,2017,(2):61-65
[13]朱国宇,熊伟.模糊评价法与综合指数法在生态影响后评价中的应用比较研究[J].东北农业大学学报,2011,42(2):54-59Zhu Guoyu,Xiong Wei.Comparison research on application of the fussy assessment method'sand comprehensive index method's in the post ecology assessment[J].Journal of Northeast Agricultural University,2011,42(2):54-59
[14]尹继娟,梁秀娟,肖长来,等.基于灰色聚类的物元可拓法在地下水水质评价中的应用:以洮南市为例[J].节水灌溉,2012,(6):52-55Yin Jijuan,Liang Xiujuan,Xiao Changlai,et al.Application of matter-element extension method based on grey clustering theory in the groundwater quality evaluation[J].Water Saving Irrigation,2012,(6):52-55
[15]倪晋仁,刘元元.河流健康诊断与生态修复[J].中国水利,2006,(13):4-10Ni Jinren,Liu Yuanyuan.River health diagnosis and ecological rehabilitation[J].China Water Resources,2006,(13):4-10
[16]Zhao Yanwei,Yang Zhifeng.Integrative fuzzy hierarchical model for river health assessment:a case study of Yong River in Ningbo City,China[J].Communications in Nonlinear Science&Numerical Simulation,2009,14(4):1729-1736
[17]高晓薇,刘元元,戴纪翠,等.深圳河健康状况诊断及分析[J].北京大学学报(自然科学版),2010,46(4):636-642Gao Xiaowei,Liu Yuanyuan,Dai Jicui,et al.Assessment and analysis of Shenzhen River health[J].Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis,2010,46(4):636-642
[18]杨丽萍.河流健康评价关键指标的确定与验证[D].昆明:云南大学,2012Yang Liping.Determination and confirmation of key index on river health evaluation[D].Kunming:Yunnan University,2012
[19]冯彦,何大明,杨丽萍.河流健康评价的主评指标筛选[J].地理研究,2012,31(3):389-398Feng Yan,He Daming,Yang Liping.Selection of major evaluation indicators on river health evaluation[J].Geographical Research,2012,31(3):389-398
[20]Process A H.The analytic hierarchy process[M].Encyclopedia of Biostatistics.John Wiley&Sons,Ltd.,New York,1980:19-28
[21]朱建军.层次分析法的若干问题研究及应用[D].沈阳:东北大学,2005Zhu Jianjun.Research on some problems of the analytic hierarchy process and its application[D].Shenyang:Northeastern University,2005
[22]Saaty T.Decision making:the analytic hierarchy process[M].The Analytic Hierarchy Process in Natural Resource and Environmental Decision Making.Springer Netherlands,Berlin,2001:15-35
[23]赵焕臣.层次分析法:一种简易的新决策方法[M].北京:科学出版社,1986Zhao Huanchen.Analytic hierarchy process:a simple and new method of decision making[M].Beijing:Science Press,1986
[24]Olson D L.Decision aids for selection problems[J].Journal of the Operational Research Society,1997,48(5):541-542
[25]镇常青.多目标决策中的权重调查确定方法[J].系统工程理论与实践,1987,7(2):16-24Zhen Changqing.Investigation and determination method of weights in multiple objective decision making[J].System Engineering Theory and Practice,1987,7(2):16-24
[26]李俊玲.河流健康评价指标体系及权重模型研究[D].南京:河海大学,2008Li Junling.Research on index system and weight model of river health assessment[D].Nanjing:Hohai University,2008
[27]Nurmi F H.Group decision making and consensus under fuzzy preferences and fuzzy majority[J].Fuzzy Sets&Systems,1992,49(1):21-31
[28]侯定丕.博弈论导论[M].合肥:中国科学技术大学出版社,2004Hou Dingpi.Introduction to game theory[M].Hefei:Press of University of Science and Technology of China,2004
[29]李自明.基于多层次灰色聚类模型的河流健康综合评价研究[D].重庆:重庆交通大学,2015Li Ziming.The application of multi-level gray clustering model on the comprehensive evaluation of river health[D].Chongqing:Chongqing Jiaotong University,2015
[30]Ju Jiandong,Wei Shangjin.Endowment versus finance:a wooden barrel theory of international trade[J].Social Science Electronic Publishing,2005,123(5):1-29
[31]Chaharbaghi K,Lynch R.Sustainable competitive advantage:towards a dynamic resource-based strategy[J].Management Decision,1999,37(1):45-50
[32]臧成丽.基于木桶原理的综合评价方法研究及应用[D].成都:成都理工大学,2012Zang Chengli.Comprehensive evaluation method based on the barrel theory research and application[D].Chengdu:Chengdu University of Technology,2012
[33]周毅,张竞,周宁,等.融入木桶原理的综合评估[J].计算机工程,2006,32(17):197-199Zhou Yi,Zhang Jing,Zhou Ning,et al.Synthetic assessment with cask theory[J].Computer Engineering,2006,32(17):197-199
[34]Li Tianhong,Ding Yao,Xia Wei.An integrated method for waterway health assessment:a case in the Jingjiang reach of the Yangtze River,China[J].Physical Geography,2017:1-17
[35]黄成涛,白明,李彪,等.荆江河段高滩守护工程护底排边缘冲刷试验研究[J].水运工程,2014,(12):151-155Huang Chengtao,Bai Ming,Li Biao,et al.Experimental study on scouring at edge of bed protection mattress of high-beach protection engineering in Jingjiang reach[J].Port and Waterway Engineering,2014,(12):151-155
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