实物期权理论在农业生产经营决策中的应用——对农户种植蔬菜弃收现象诠释
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摘要
近年来,蔬菜价格波动加剧,引发社会关注。价格过低可能导致出现蔬菜弃收现象,这不仅是菜农的损失,更是资源的浪费。本文分析了农产品生产者在农业生产经营过程中不同阶段的投入决策行为,构建其保留价格的决定模型,并利用理论分析结果对产地弃收现象进行经济学解释。结论表明:物流运输成本高和不耐储存的特征限制了蔬菜供给在时空上的分散配置,使蔬菜生产波动大部分传导为供给波动,进而引发供需失衡和价格波动。与此同时,物流运输成本、储藏成本和收割环节成本又推高了农户的预期保留价格。当市场价格(或预期市场价格)低于农户的保留价格(或预期保留价格)时,农户就会选择弃收。因此,应从物流成本、机械化收割蔬菜、降低储藏成本方面减少蔬菜弃收现象。
In recent years, vegetable price volatility has intensified, affecting the "three rural".Too low prices may lead to the abandonment of vegetable plots, which is not only the loss of vegetable farmers, but also the waste of resources. This paper analyzes the investment decision-making behavior of agricultural producers, constructs a decision model for its reserve price, and uses the theoretical analysis results to explain the economics of the abandonment of production. The conclusions show that the characteristics of high logistics transportation cost and storage stability limit the decentralized allocation of vegetable supply in time and space, so that the fluctuation of production production is mostly transmitted as supply fluctuation, which leads to imbalance between supply and demand and price fluctuation. Logistics transportation costs, storage costs and harvesting costs have pushed up the expected reserve prices of farmers. When the market price is lower than the farmer's reserve price, the farmer will have a discard. Therefore, the phenomenon of farmer abandonment should be reduced in terms of logistics costs, mechanized harvesting of vegetables, and reduction of storage costs.
In recent years, vegetable price volatility has intensified, affecting the "three rural".Too low prices may lead to the abandonment of vegetable plots, which is not only the loss of vegetable farmers, but also the waste of resources. This paper analyzes the investment decision-making behavior of agricultural producers, constructs a decision model for its reserve price, and uses the theoretical analysis results to explain the economics of the abandonment of production. The conclusions show that the characteristics of high logistics transportation cost and storage stability limit the decentralized allocation of vegetable supply in time and space, so that the fluctuation of production production is mostly transmitted as supply fluctuation, which leads to imbalance between supply and demand and price fluctuation. Logistics transportation costs, storage costs and harvesting costs have pushed up the expected reserve prices of farmers. When the market price is lower than the farmer's reserve price, the farmer will have a discard. Therefore, the phenomenon of farmer abandonment should be reduced in terms of logistics costs, mechanized harvesting of vegetables, and reduction of storage costs.
引文
[1]冯邦彦、徐枫.实物期权理论及其应用评介[J].经济学动态,2003(10).
[2]宋长鸣、徐娟、李剑.蔬菜价格波动特征与货币供应量的动态影响--基于变参数模型的分析[J].华中农业大学学报(社会科学版),2014(6).
[3]纪龙、李崇光、章胜勇.中国蔬菜生产的空间分布及其对价格波动的影响[J].经济地理,2016(1).
[4]罗超平、牛可、但斌.蔬菜价格波动的农村与城镇居民福利效应--基于省际面板数据模型[J].农村经济,2017(4).
[5]陶建平.我国蔬菜产业发展及价格低迷背后的成因探究[N].中华合作时报,2018.
[6]朱晓婷、张绍文.基于实物期权的林业投资项目价值评价模型研究[J].北京林业大学学报(社会科学版),2018(3).
[7]窦晓博、邵娜.近年中国蔬菜种植成本收益分析[J].农业展望,2018(3).
(1)保留价格是指农业生产者愿意交易的最低价格,即恰好能够弥补交易行为发生成本的蔬菜现时交易价格。
(2)期望保留价格是恰好能够弥补从决策时间点至未来交易完成期间发生成本的未来交易价格。
[2]宋长鸣、徐娟、李剑.蔬菜价格波动特征与货币供应量的动态影响--基于变参数模型的分析[J].华中农业大学学报(社会科学版),2014(6).
[3]纪龙、李崇光、章胜勇.中国蔬菜生产的空间分布及其对价格波动的影响[J].经济地理,2016(1).
[4]罗超平、牛可、但斌.蔬菜价格波动的农村与城镇居民福利效应--基于省际面板数据模型[J].农村经济,2017(4).
[5]陶建平.我国蔬菜产业发展及价格低迷背后的成因探究[N].中华合作时报,2018.
[6]朱晓婷、张绍文.基于实物期权的林业投资项目价值评价模型研究[J].北京林业大学学报(社会科学版),2018(3).
[7]窦晓博、邵娜.近年中国蔬菜种植成本收益分析[J].农业展望,2018(3).
(1)保留价格是指农业生产者愿意交易的最低价格,即恰好能够弥补交易行为发生成本的蔬菜现时交易价格。
(2)期望保留价格是恰好能够弥补从决策时间点至未来交易完成期间发生成本的未来交易价格。