基于区间灰关联的玉米不同生长阶段气象因素对产量影响的量化分析
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摘要
为探究气象因素对河南省玉米不同生长阶段的影响,采用灰色关联分析模型对河南省气象因素与玉米气象产量的相关性进行分析。以河南省郑州市为代表,将玉米生长划分为5个生长阶段,选取郑州市2007—2016年的气象数据及玉米产量数据,采用HP滤波法求得玉米的气象产量,采用不同灰色关联分析模型求得玉米气象产量与各生长阶段气象因素的关联度,发现区间灰数绝对关联模型的排序结果更加符合实际,进而采用该模型分析各气象因素对玉米不同生长阶段影响程度的大小。结果表明,日最高气温(0.642 3)、日平均气温(0.618 5)在玉米乳熟—成熟阶段对气象产量影响较大;平均相对湿度在玉米出苗—拔节(0.604 1)、拔节—抽雄(0.593 2)阶段对气象产量影响较大,日照时数在玉米出苗—拔节(0. 579 6)及乳熟—成熟(0. 589 2)阶段对气象产量产生较大影响,日最低气温在玉米播种—出苗(0. 606 4)阶段对气象产量影响最大,平均风速在玉米乳熟—成熟(0. 579 6)阶段对气象产量影响最大。
In order to explore the influence of meteorological factors during different growth periods of maize in Henan province,the grey incidence analysis model was used to analyze the incidence between meteorological factors and meteorological yields in Henan province. Taking Zhengzhou city,Henan province as the representative,the maize growth was divided into five growth periods,and the meteorological data and production data of Zhengzhou city from 2007 to 2016 were selected. The HP filter method was used to obtain the meteorological yield of maize. The incidence degree between meteorological yield of maize and meteorological factors during various growth periods was obtained by using different grey incidence analysis models. It was found that the ranking results of the absolute incidence model of interval grey number were more realistic. Furthermore,the model was used to analyze the influence degree of various meteorological factors during different growth periods of maize. The results showed that the daily maximum temperature( 0. 642 3) and the daily mean temperature( 0. 618 5) has a great influence on the meteorological yield during the period of milky maturity to maturity. The average relative humidity has a great influence on the meteorological yield during the period of emergence to jointing( 0. 604 1) and jointing to heading( 0. 593 2). The sunshine hours has a great influence on the meteorological yield during the period of emergence to jointing( 0. 579 6) and milky maturity to maturity( 0. 589 2). The daily minimum temperature has a great influence on the meteorological yield during the period of sowing to emergence( 0. 606 4). The average wind speed has a great influence on the meteorological yield during the period of milky maturity to maturity( 0. 579 6).
In order to explore the influence of meteorological factors during different growth periods of maize in Henan province,the grey incidence analysis model was used to analyze the incidence between meteorological factors and meteorological yields in Henan province. Taking Zhengzhou city,Henan province as the representative,the maize growth was divided into five growth periods,and the meteorological data and production data of Zhengzhou city from 2007 to 2016 were selected. The HP filter method was used to obtain the meteorological yield of maize. The incidence degree between meteorological yield of maize and meteorological factors during various growth periods was obtained by using different grey incidence analysis models. It was found that the ranking results of the absolute incidence model of interval grey number were more realistic. Furthermore,the model was used to analyze the influence degree of various meteorological factors during different growth periods of maize. The results showed that the daily maximum temperature( 0. 642 3) and the daily mean temperature( 0. 618 5) has a great influence on the meteorological yield during the period of milky maturity to maturity. The average relative humidity has a great influence on the meteorological yield during the period of emergence to jointing( 0. 604 1) and jointing to heading( 0. 593 2). The sunshine hours has a great influence on the meteorological yield during the period of emergence to jointing( 0. 579 6) and milky maturity to maturity( 0. 589 2). The daily minimum temperature has a great influence on the meteorological yield during the period of sowing to emergence( 0. 606 4). The average wind speed has a great influence on the meteorological yield during the period of milky maturity to maturity( 0. 579 6).
引文
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[10]王玉宝,柴成亮,张鹏,等.气候变化条件下旱作玉米用水效率与单产变化趋势分析[J].农业机械学报,2018,49(8):210-218.
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[12]陈上,窦子荷,蒋腾聪,等.基于聚类法筛选历史相似气象数据的玉米产量DSSAT-CERES-Maize预测[J].农业工程学报,2017,33(19):147-155.
[13]徐玉秀,蒋姗姗,周福然,等. 1981—2010年锦州地区玉米生育期气象因子变化及其与气象产量的关系[J].气象与环境学报,2017,33(5):82-90.
[14]李树岩,余卫东.基于气候适宜度的河南省夏玉米产量预报研究[J].河南农业大学学报,2015,49(1):27-34.
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[16]徐泽水.不确定多属性决策方法及应用[M].北京:清华大学出版社. 2004.
[17] ZHANG X,JIN F,LIU P. A grey relational projection method for multi-attribute decision making based on intuitionistic trapezoidal fuzzy number[J]. Applied Mathematical Modelling,2013,37(5):3467-3477.
[18]魏勇,高彦琴,曾柯方.邓氏关联度的局限与关联公理的演变[J].应用泛函分析学报,2015,17(4):391-399.
[19]刘思峰,等.灰色系统理论及其应用[M]. 8版.北京:科学出版社,2017:55-63.
[20]刘卫锋.广义区间灰数关联度模型[J].郑州大学学报(理学版),2013,45(2):41-44.
[21]薛昌颖,马志红,胡程达.近40a黄淮海地区夏玉米生长季干旱时空特征分析[J].自然灾害学报,2016,25(2):1-14.
[22]国家气象情报信息中心.中国气象科学数据共享服务网. http://cdc. cm. gov. cn/. 2014.
[23]河南省统计局:河南省统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2008—2017.
[24]房世波.分离趋势产量和气候产量的方法探讨[J].自然灾害学报,2011,20(6):13-18.
[25]庄富娟.浅析气象因子对玉米生长发育的影响[J].种子科技,2018,36(8):17.
[26]李言照,刘光亮,张海燕.光温因子与玉米产量的关系[J].西北农业学报,2001,10(2):67-70.
[27]刘文海,赵彦平,王慧.浅析温度对玉米生长发育及产量的影响[J].农业科技通讯,2015(10):56-60.
[28]苏玉杰,周景春,张存岭,等.濉溪县夏玉米生产与气象因子关系分析[J].玉米科学,2007,15(S1):165-168.
[29]吕永祥.濮阳县天气气候条件对夏玉米产量的影响[J].河南气象,1998(4):33.
[30]崔力,王春玲,李改琴,等.濮阳市夏玉米产量与气象因子的关系分析[J].中国农学通报,2010,26(16):341-344.
[31]恵贤,郭忠富,海小东,等.玉米高产栽培新技术[M].北京:中国农业科学技术出版社,2015.
[2]郝振华,张翠英,杨旭,等.鲁西南2010年夏玉米农业气象条件分析[J].陕西农业科学,2011,57(6):90-92.
[3]王二虎,孙欣.开封市夏玉米产量与气象因素的灰色关联度分析[J].陕西农业科学,2012,58(6):37-40.
[4]卞仁江,孙秀邦,杨向梅,等.气候条件对奈曼玉米产量的影响[J].安徽农业科学,2012,40(27):13291-13293.
[5]韩毅强,高亚梅,郑殿峰,等.利用播期研究气候条件对黑龙江春玉米产量性状的影响[J].干旱地区农业研究,2016,34(3):132-138.
[6]明博,朱金城,陶洪斌,等.黑龙港流域玉米不同生育阶段气象因子对产量性状的影响[J].作物学报,2013,39(5):919-927.
[7]董朋飞,张绍芬,刘天学,等.玉米灌浆期间气冠温差与产量的关系[J].河南农业大学学报,2007,41(5):487-491.
[8]贾建英,郭建平,彭妮.气候变化对东北地区玉米产量的影响[J].安徽农业科学,2010,38(32):18309-18311.
[9]钱锦霞,郭建平.东北地区春玉米生长发育和产量对温度变化的响应[J].作物学报,2013.34(3):312-316.
[10]王玉宝,柴成亮,张鹏,等.气候变化条件下旱作玉米用水效率与单产变化趋势分析[J].农业机械学报,2018,49(8):210-218.
[11]熊淑萍,卢中民,吴克远,等.河南省小麦和玉米产量及其有关气候因子分析[J].河南农业大学学报,2014,48(2):123-129.
[12]陈上,窦子荷,蒋腾聪,等.基于聚类法筛选历史相似气象数据的玉米产量DSSAT-CERES-Maize预测[J].农业工程学报,2017,33(19):147-155.
[13]徐玉秀,蒋姗姗,周福然,等. 1981—2010年锦州地区玉米生育期气象因子变化及其与气象产量的关系[J].气象与环境学报,2017,33(5):82-90.
[14]李树岩,余卫东.基于气候适宜度的河南省夏玉米产量预报研究[J].河南农业大学学报,2015,49(1):27-34.
[15]刘思峰,党耀国,方志耕,等.灰色系统理论及其应用[M]. 5版.北京:科学出版社,2010.
[16]徐泽水.不确定多属性决策方法及应用[M].北京:清华大学出版社. 2004.
[17] ZHANG X,JIN F,LIU P. A grey relational projection method for multi-attribute decision making based on intuitionistic trapezoidal fuzzy number[J]. Applied Mathematical Modelling,2013,37(5):3467-3477.
[18]魏勇,高彦琴,曾柯方.邓氏关联度的局限与关联公理的演变[J].应用泛函分析学报,2015,17(4):391-399.
[19]刘思峰,等.灰色系统理论及其应用[M]. 8版.北京:科学出版社,2017:55-63.
[20]刘卫锋.广义区间灰数关联度模型[J].郑州大学学报(理学版),2013,45(2):41-44.
[21]薛昌颖,马志红,胡程达.近40a黄淮海地区夏玉米生长季干旱时空特征分析[J].自然灾害学报,2016,25(2):1-14.
[22]国家气象情报信息中心.中国气象科学数据共享服务网. http://cdc. cm. gov. cn/. 2014.
[23]河南省统计局:河南省统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2008—2017.
[24]房世波.分离趋势产量和气候产量的方法探讨[J].自然灾害学报,2011,20(6):13-18.
[25]庄富娟.浅析气象因子对玉米生长发育的影响[J].种子科技,2018,36(8):17.
[26]李言照,刘光亮,张海燕.光温因子与玉米产量的关系[J].西北农业学报,2001,10(2):67-70.
[27]刘文海,赵彦平,王慧.浅析温度对玉米生长发育及产量的影响[J].农业科技通讯,2015(10):56-60.
[28]苏玉杰,周景春,张存岭,等.濉溪县夏玉米生产与气象因子关系分析[J].玉米科学,2007,15(S1):165-168.
[29]吕永祥.濮阳县天气气候条件对夏玉米产量的影响[J].河南气象,1998(4):33.
[30]崔力,王春玲,李改琴,等.濮阳市夏玉米产量与气象因子的关系分析[J].中国农学通报,2010,26(16):341-344.
[31]恵贤,郭忠富,海小东,等.玉米高产栽培新技术[M].北京:中国农业科学技术出版社,2015.