一种改进的电压暂降概率评估方法
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摘要
针对电压暂降随机预估中传统蒙特卡洛法认为线路长度是影响线路故障率唯一影响因素的缺陷,提出了一种改进的电压暂降概率评估方法.构建了包含线路自身属性及多种客观因素的线路故障概率评估体系;并结合该评估体系,建立了完善的短路故障模型,在PSCAD/EMTDC搭建IEEE-30节点系统仿真模型,运用随机数发生模块和Multiple Run组件对故障信息进行抽样和传送,通过仿真计算得到敏感负荷接入点的电压暂降特征量和评估指标的概率分布.仿真结果表明,改进的蒙特卡洛法相比于蒙特卡洛法在电压暂降概率评估中更接近电网的真实状况,验证了该方法的有效性.
Aimed at the shortage of the traditional Monte Carlo method for stochastic assessment of voltage sags, where the length of transmission line is taken as the unique influencing factor on line failure rate, an improved method for assessment of voltage sag probability is proposed. A probability assessment system of line fault is established, in which the attribute of the line proper and variety of objective factors are included and with the aid of it, a perfect short-circuit fault model is established. The IEEE-30 nodal system simulation model is then established on PSCAD/EMTDC, the random number generation module and Multiple Run component are used to sample and transmit the fault information, and the probability distribution of voltage sag characteristic variable and assessment index of the sensitive load access point are obtained by means of simulative evaluation. The simulation result shows that compared to original Monte Carlo, the improved method for assessment of voltage sag probability will be closer to real condition of grid system and the effectiveness of this method will be verified.
Aimed at the shortage of the traditional Monte Carlo method for stochastic assessment of voltage sags, where the length of transmission line is taken as the unique influencing factor on line failure rate, an improved method for assessment of voltage sag probability is proposed. A probability assessment system of line fault is established, in which the attribute of the line proper and variety of objective factors are included and with the aid of it, a perfect short-circuit fault model is established. The IEEE-30 nodal system simulation model is then established on PSCAD/EMTDC, the random number generation module and Multiple Run component are used to sample and transmit the fault information, and the probability distribution of voltage sag characteristic variable and assessment index of the sensitive load access point are obtained by means of simulative evaluation. The simulation result shows that compared to original Monte Carlo, the improved method for assessment of voltage sag probability will be closer to real condition of grid system and the effectiveness of this method will be verified.
引文
[1] GB/T 30137—2013.电能质量:电压暂降与短时中断 [S].北京:中国标准出版社,2013.
[2] 肖遥,李澍森.供电系统的电压下凹 [J].电网技术,2001(1):73-77.
[3] LIM Y S,STRBAC G.Analytical approach to probabilistic prediction of voltage sags on transmission networks [J].Transmission and Distribution,2002,149(1):7-14.
[4] MOSCHAKIS M N,HATZIARGYRIOU N D.Analytical calculation and stochastic assessment of voltage sags [J].IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery,2006,21(3):1727-1734.
[5] 李妍,余欣梅,熊信艮,等.电力系统电压暂降分析计算方法综述 [J].电网技术,2004(14):74-78.
[6] 黎锁平.运用蒙特卡罗方法求解随机性问题 [J].甘肃工业大学学报,2001,27(2):95-97.
[7] 郝晓弘,张思齐,陈伟,等.基于MCMC法进行电压跌落随机预估方法的研究 [J].电力系统保护与控制,2013,41(9):94-99.
[8] 夏成军,王强,邹正华,等.电压骤降概率评估的建模与仿真 [J].电力系统及其自动化学报,2010,22(1):86-90.
[9] 殷超,谢慧.电力系统输电线路故障概率模型分析 [J].电子测试,2013(18):41-42.
[10] 李军,李继光,姚建刚,等.属性识别和G1-熵权法在电能质量评价中的应用 [J].电网技术,2009(14):56-61.
[11] 沈阳武,彭晓涛,施通勤,等.基于最优组合权重的电能质量灰色综合评价方法 [J].电力系统自动化,2012,36(10):67-73.
[12] 郭亚军.综合评价理论、方法及应用 [M].北京:科学出版社,2007:130-137.
[13] MARTINEZ J A,MARTIN-ARNEDO J.Voltage sag stochastic prediction using an electromagnetic transients program [J].IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery,2004,19(4):1975-1982.
[14] BOLLEN M H J,SABIN D D,THALLAM R S.Voltage-sag indices recent developments in IEEE PI564 task force [C]//Quality and Security of Electric Power Delivery Systems.Montreal,Canada:[s.n.],2003:34-41.
[15] 陶顺.现代电力系统电能质量评估体系的研究 [D].北京:华北电力大学,2008.
[2] 肖遥,李澍森.供电系统的电压下凹 [J].电网技术,2001(1):73-77.
[3] LIM Y S,STRBAC G.Analytical approach to probabilistic prediction of voltage sags on transmission networks [J].Transmission and Distribution,2002,149(1):7-14.
[4] MOSCHAKIS M N,HATZIARGYRIOU N D.Analytical calculation and stochastic assessment of voltage sags [J].IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery,2006,21(3):1727-1734.
[5] 李妍,余欣梅,熊信艮,等.电力系统电压暂降分析计算方法综述 [J].电网技术,2004(14):74-78.
[6] 黎锁平.运用蒙特卡罗方法求解随机性问题 [J].甘肃工业大学学报,2001,27(2):95-97.
[7] 郝晓弘,张思齐,陈伟,等.基于MCMC法进行电压跌落随机预估方法的研究 [J].电力系统保护与控制,2013,41(9):94-99.
[8] 夏成军,王强,邹正华,等.电压骤降概率评估的建模与仿真 [J].电力系统及其自动化学报,2010,22(1):86-90.
[9] 殷超,谢慧.电力系统输电线路故障概率模型分析 [J].电子测试,2013(18):41-42.
[10] 李军,李继光,姚建刚,等.属性识别和G1-熵权法在电能质量评价中的应用 [J].电网技术,2009(14):56-61.
[11] 沈阳武,彭晓涛,施通勤,等.基于最优组合权重的电能质量灰色综合评价方法 [J].电力系统自动化,2012,36(10):67-73.
[12] 郭亚军.综合评价理论、方法及应用 [M].北京:科学出版社,2007:130-137.
[13] MARTINEZ J A,MARTIN-ARNEDO J.Voltage sag stochastic prediction using an electromagnetic transients program [J].IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery,2004,19(4):1975-1982.
[14] BOLLEN M H J,SABIN D D,THALLAM R S.Voltage-sag indices recent developments in IEEE PI564 task force [C]//Quality and Security of Electric Power Delivery Systems.Montreal,Canada:[s.n.],2003:34-41.
[15] 陶顺.现代电力系统电能质量评估体系的研究 [D].北京:华北电力大学,2008.