基于双重差分模型的高速铁路对中国三大城市群经济发展的比较研究
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摘要
文章以中国三大城市群——长三角城市群、京津冀城市群和珠三角城市群为例,运用2007～2016年地级市及以上数据,基于双重差分模型比较研究高速铁路的建成通车对人均GDP和城乡居民收入差距的影响差异。研究结果表明:高铁的建成通车显著地提高了长三角城市群、京津冀城市群、珠三角城市群的人均GDP增长率;同时显著缩小了珠三角城市群、长三角城市群、京津冀城市群的城乡居民收入差距;长三角城市群和珠三角城市群的社会零售消费能力较强,对人均GDP的增长有明显拉动作用;增加财政支出,社会零售消费和地区劳动力人口均能显著缩小三个城市群的城乡居民收入差距。
Taking the three major city clusters of China including Changjiang River Delta, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and the Zhujiang River Delta as examples, this article makes a comparative study on the impact of high-speed railway completion on two aspects including per capita GDP and income gap between urban and rural residents. It is based on urban data from 2007 to 2016 and using DID model to study. The results show that the operation of high-speed railway has significantly increased the growth of per capita GDP in the Changjiang River Delta, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and the Zhujiang River Delta. At the same time, the opening of high-speed railway has significantly narrowed income gap between urban and rural residents in the Zhujiang River Delta, Changjiang River Delta and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei. The fiscal expenditure of Changjiang River Delta has a significant impact on per capita GDP. Increasing fiscal expenditure, social retail consumption and regional labor force will significantly narrow the urban-rural income gap of the three urban agglomerations.
Taking the three major city clusters of China including Changjiang River Delta, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and the Zhujiang River Delta as examples, this article makes a comparative study on the impact of high-speed railway completion on two aspects including per capita GDP and income gap between urban and rural residents. It is based on urban data from 2007 to 2016 and using DID model to study. The results show that the operation of high-speed railway has significantly increased the growth of per capita GDP in the Changjiang River Delta, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and the Zhujiang River Delta. At the same time, the opening of high-speed railway has significantly narrowed income gap between urban and rural residents in the Zhujiang River Delta, Changjiang River Delta and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei. The fiscal expenditure of Changjiang River Delta has a significant impact on per capita GDP. Increasing fiscal expenditure, social retail consumption and regional labor force will significantly narrow the urban-rural income gap of the three urban agglomerations.
引文
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[11]凯恩斯.就业利息和货币通论[M].北京:商务印书馆,1999.
[2]蒋海兵,徐建刚,祁毅.京沪高铁对区域中心城市陆路可达性影响[J].地理学报,2010,65(10):1287-1298.
[3]Tsamboulas D,Lioukas S,Dionelis C.Evaluating Alternative Scenarios for High-Speed Rail Investment in Greece[J].Transportation,1992,19(3):245-265.
[4]Sato Y.Shinkansen:From Bullet Train to Symbol of Modern Japan(review)[J].East Asian Science Technology&Society An International Journal,2008,2(2):139-141.
[5]丁冬梅.高速铁路对沿线区域经济发展的影响研究[D].北京交通大学,2012.
[6]殷平.高速铁路与区域旅游新格局构建--以郑西高铁为例[J].旅游学刊,2012,27(12):47-53.
[7]薛锋,余潇.基于熵权-灰色理论的高速铁路产业链关联分析--以四川省为例[J].综合运输,2018,40(08):1-6.
[8]Ashish Verma,H.S.Sudhira,Sujaya Rathi,et al.Sustainable urbanization using high speed rail(HSR)in Karnataka,India[J].Research in Transportation Economics,2013,38(1):67-77.
[9]董艳梅,朱英明.高铁建设能否重塑中国的经济空间布局--基于就业、工资和经济增长的区域异质性视角[J].中国工业经济,2016(10):92-108.
[10]陈丰龙,徐康宁,王美昌.高铁发展与城乡居民收入差距:来自中国城市的证据[J].经济评论,2018(02):59-73.
[11]凯恩斯.就业利息和货币通论[M].北京:商务印书馆,1999.