广东省工业废水排放量与经济影响因素的协整分析
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摘要
广东省工业化、城市化进程的持续推进,导致工业废水排放量逐年增加。为量化工业废水排放量与经济影响因素之间的关系,运用协整检验、格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应函数、方差分解等协整理论方法探讨广东省工业GDP比重、霍夫曼系数、工业劳动者比重对工业废水排放量的长期影响规律。结果表明:除霍夫曼系数外,其余2个变量与工业废水排放量均存在同向变动关系,霍夫曼系数、工业劳动者比重在前期对工业废水排放量影响较大,而后期主要是工业GDP比重。
With the rapid industrialization and urbanization in Guangdong province, industrial wastewater discharge increases year by year. To quantify the relationship between industrial wastewater discharge and economic factors, this paper used cointegration test,Granger causality test, impulse response function and variance decomposition to analyze the long-term impact of industrial GDP proportion, Hoffman coefficientand industrial worker proportion on industrial wastewater discharge. The results showed that, except for Hoffman coefficient, the other two variables had positive correlation with industrial wastewater discharge. At the early stage, the influence of Hoffman coefficient and industrial worker proportion on industrial wastewater discharge were greater than that of industrial GDP proportion, but the latter would mainly influence that during later period.
With the rapid industrialization and urbanization in Guangdong province, industrial wastewater discharge increases year by year. To quantify the relationship between industrial wastewater discharge and economic factors, this paper used cointegration test,Granger causality test, impulse response function and variance decomposition to analyze the long-term impact of industrial GDP proportion, Hoffman coefficientand industrial worker proportion on industrial wastewater discharge. The results showed that, except for Hoffman coefficient, the other two variables had positive correlation with industrial wastewater discharge. At the early stage, the influence of Hoffman coefficient and industrial worker proportion on industrial wastewater discharge were greater than that of industrial GDP proportion, but the latter would mainly influence that during later period.
引文
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[3]朱建华,逯元堂.基于协整分析的中国“十二五”水污染防治投资预测[C]//2011中国环境科学学会学术年会论文集(第一卷),2011.
[4]戴红军,孙涛,白林,等.环境污染对区域经济发展的影响研究——基于协整分析和岭回归分析[J].华东经济管理,2015(1):62-67.
[5]张菲,赵凯.我国环境污染与经济增长关系的协整检验[J].沈阳农业大学学报(社会科学版),2010,12(6):669-672.
[6]王锋.南流江流域水污染排放特征分析——基于KEC与Lorenz曲线[J].人民珠江,2018,39(7):33-36,50.
[7]吴振信,万埠磊.基于环境库兹涅茨曲线的北京市碳排放与经济增长相关性研究[J].经济研究导刊,2012(14):61-64.
[8]张玉媚.广东省工业化进程中经济增长与环境变化之间关系的实证研究[D].广州:暨南大学,2006.
[9]衡昌.广东省经济增长与环境污染的实证研究[D].广州:华南农业大学,2010.
[10]卢洪友,张靖妤.基于EKC理论的经济增长与环境质量协整关系分析——以广东省为例[J].宏观质量研究,2015,3(2):121-128.
[11]李佐军.对工业化的重新认识及其现实意义[J].当代经济科学,2004,26(3):1-5.
[12]易丹辉.数据分析与Eviews应用[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2002.