2000-2015年青海省植被覆盖的时空变化特征
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摘要
【目的】以像元为基本单元,研究青海省归一化植被指数(NDVI)的时空变化特征,以揭示NDVI对气候变化的响应规律,分析青海省未来植被变化趋势,为青海省生态建设提供参考。【方法】以青海省2000-2015年的MODIS13Q1/NDVI为数据源,将反映趋势变化的Theil-Sen Median方法与检验趋势显著性的Mann-Kendall方法结合使用,研究青海省NDVI的变化趋势,并采用Hurst指数方法判断变化趋势的可持续性。【结果】1)青海省NDVI的空间分布整体呈从西北向东南逐渐增加的趋势。2)16年间NDVI整体呈增长趋势,增速为每10年1.5%,旱地及草原与稀树灌木草原增速最快,分别为每10年2.7%和2.3%。3)16年间青海省植被覆盖改善区域(60.51%)明显大于退化区域(17.87%),其中植被覆盖明显改善区占全省面积的21.26%,轻微改善占39.25%,轻微退化占15.75%,严重退化占2.12%,基本不变的占21.62%。4)青海省植被覆盖未来改善的区域占整个区域面积的62.23%,其中持续性改善占38.01%,由退化转为改善的占24.22%;植被未来有退化趋势的区域占18.30%,其中持续性退化占7.74%,由改善变为退化趋势的占10.56%;稳定不变的区域为8.43%;植被未来变化趋势不确定区域占11.04%。【结论】青海省植被覆盖变化受气候和人类活动的共同影响,大部分地区植被未来呈改善趋势。
【Objective】This paper studied the spatial variation characteristics of NDVI in Qinghai base on pixel unit,analyzed the response of vegetation NDVI to climate change and predicted the future trend of vegetation change to provide reference for ecological construction in Qinghai.【Method】MODIS13Q1/NDVI data of Qinghai from 2000 to 2015 were used to analyze NDVI trends through the Theil-Sen Median trend analysis with the Mann-Kendall test,and the Hurst index was used to evaluate the sustainability of NDVI trend.【Result】1)The vegetation NDVI in Qinghai increased from northwest to southeast.2)NDVI showed an overall increasing trend in recent 16 years,with a growth rate of 1.5%/10 a.Dryland/grassland and savannah grassland experienced the highest growth rates of 2.7%/10 aand 2.3%/10 a.3)In the 16 years,the improvement area of vegetation cover in Qinghai was significantly larger than the degraded area(17.87%).Vegetation coverage area with significant improvement was 21.26%,that with slight improvement was 39.25%,that with slightly degradation was 15.75%,that with severe degradation was 2.12%,and that remained unchanged was 21.62%.4)In the future,the vegetation covered area in Qinghai accounted for 62.23% of the total area,of which 38.01% was continuously improved area and 24.22% was improved from degradation to improvement.The area with degradation trend was 18.30%,of which 7.74%was persistent degradation and 10.56% was from improvement to degradation.The stable area was 8.43%and the uncertain area was 11.04%.【Conclusion】The NDVI in Qinghai was affected by both climate and human activities,and most areas showed improving trend.
【Objective】This paper studied the spatial variation characteristics of NDVI in Qinghai base on pixel unit,analyzed the response of vegetation NDVI to climate change and predicted the future trend of vegetation change to provide reference for ecological construction in Qinghai.【Method】MODIS13Q1/NDVI data of Qinghai from 2000 to 2015 were used to analyze NDVI trends through the Theil-Sen Median trend analysis with the Mann-Kendall test,and the Hurst index was used to evaluate the sustainability of NDVI trend.【Result】1)The vegetation NDVI in Qinghai increased from northwest to southeast.2)NDVI showed an overall increasing trend in recent 16 years,with a growth rate of 1.5%/10 a.Dryland/grassland and savannah grassland experienced the highest growth rates of 2.7%/10 aand 2.3%/10 a.3)In the 16 years,the improvement area of vegetation cover in Qinghai was significantly larger than the degraded area(17.87%).Vegetation coverage area with significant improvement was 21.26%,that with slight improvement was 39.25%,that with slightly degradation was 15.75%,that with severe degradation was 2.12%,and that remained unchanged was 21.62%.4)In the future,the vegetation covered area in Qinghai accounted for 62.23% of the total area,of which 38.01% was continuously improved area and 24.22% was improved from degradation to improvement.The area with degradation trend was 18.30%,of which 7.74%was persistent degradation and 10.56% was from improvement to degradation.The stable area was 8.43%and the uncertain area was 11.04%.【Conclusion】The NDVI in Qinghai was affected by both climate and human activities,and most areas showed improving trend.
引文
[1]马明国,董立新,王雪梅.过去21a中国西北植被覆盖动态监测与模拟[J].冰川冻土,2003,25(2):232-236.Ma M G,Dong L X,Wang X M.Study on the dynamically monitoring and simulating the vegetation cover in northwest China in the past 21years[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2003,25(2):232-236.
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[5]王兮之,陆龙,梁钊雄.青海湟水流域植被覆盖度时空变化分析[J].水土保持研究,2010,17(6):172-176.Wang X Z,Lu L,Liang Z X.Analysis on temporal-spatial change of vegetation coverage in Huangshui watershed[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2010,17(6):172-176.
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[7]丁明军,张镱锂,刘林山,等.1982-2009年青藏高原草地覆盖度时空变化特征[J].自然资源学报,2010,25(12):2114-2122.Ding M J,Zhang Y L,Liu L S,et al.Temporal and spatial distribution of grassland coverage change in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau from 1982to 2009[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2010,25(12):2114-2122.
[8]刘栎杉,延军平,李双双.2000-2009年青海省植被覆盖时空变化特征[J].水土保持通报,2014,34(1):263-267.Liu L S,Yan J P,Li S S.Spatial-temporal characteristics of vegetation restoration in Qinghai province from 2000to 2009[J].Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation,2014,34(1):263-267.
[9]王莉雯,卫亚星,牛铮.基于遥感的青海省植被覆盖时空变化定量分析[J].环境科学,2008,29(6):1754-1760.Wang L W,Wei Y X,Niu Z.Analysis of vegetation spatial and temporal variations in Qinghai province based on remote sensing[J].Environmental Science,2008,29(6):1754-1760.
[10]周清波,刘佳,王利民,等.EOS-MODIS卫星数据的农业应用现状及前景分析[J].农业图书情报学刊,2005,17(2):202-205.Zhou Q B,Liu J,Wang L M,et al.Current situation and prospect analysis of the application of EOS-MODIS satellite data in agriculture[J].Journal of Library and Information Sciences in Agriculture,2005,17(2):202-205.
[11]刘玲玲,刘良云,胡勇.基于AVHRR和MODIS数据的全球植被物候比较分析[J].遥感技术与应用,2012,27(5):754-762.Liu L L,Liu L Y,Hu Y.Comparative analysis of global vegetation phenology based on AVHRR and MODIS[J].Remote Sensing Technology and Application,2012,27(5):754-762.
[12]徐根生,何应法,付炜,等.基于MOD13Q1的永州近15年植被变化研究[J].甘肃农业科技,2015(3):27-29.Xu G S,He Y F,Fu W,et al.Study on the vegetation change of Yongzhou in resent 15years based on MOD13Q1[J].Gansu Agricultural Science and Technology,2015(3):27-29.
[13]崔晓临,赵娟,白红英,等.基于MODIS NDVI的陕西省植被覆盖变化分析[J].西北农林科技大学学报(自然科学版),2013,41(5):87-93.Cui X L,Zhao J,Bai H Y,et al.Analysis of vegetation coverage change in Shaanxi province based on MODIS NDVI[J].Journal of Northwest A&F University(Natural Science Edition),2013,41(5):87-93.
[14]何磊,王超,别强,等.利用MOD13Q1产品监测肯尼亚2001-2010年荒漠化动[J].中国沙漠,2013,33(1):46-52.He L,Wang C,Bie Q,et al.Minitoring of desertification dynamic in Kenya during 2001-2010using MOD13Q1date[J].Journal of Desert Research,2013,33(1):46-52.
[15]张忠孝.青海地理[M].西宁:青海人民出版社,2009.Zhang Z X.Geography of Qinghai[M].Xining:Qinghai People’s Publishing House,2009.
[16]杨少文,董斌,盛书薇,等.升金湖湿地保护区植被覆盖变化及其主要驱动因子分析[J].西北农林科技大学学报(自然科学版),2016,44(8):177-184.Yang S W,Dong B,Sheng S W,et al.Change in vegetation coverage and the main driving factors in Shengjin Lake wetland reserve[J].Journal of Northwest A&F University(Natural Science Edition),2016,44(8):177-184.
[17]刘艳,李杨,崔彩霞,等.MODIS MOD13Q1数据在北疆荒漠化监测中的应用评价[J].草业学报,2010,19(3):14-21.Liu Y,Li Y,Cui C X,et al.Evaluation of MODIS MOD13Q1data in desertification in the north area of Xinjiang[J].Acta Prataculturae Sinica,2010,19(3):14-21.
[18]Fensholt R,Langanke T,Rasmussen K,et al.Greenness in semiarid areas across the globe 1981-2007:an Earth Observing Satellite based analysis of trends and drivers[J].Remote Sensing of Environment,2012,121(2):144-158.
[19]蔡博峰,于嵘.基于遥感的植被长时序趋势特征研究进展及评价[J].遥感学报,2009,13(6):1170-1186.Cai B F,Yu R.Advance and evaluation in the long time series vegetation trends research based on remote sensing[J].Journal of Remote Sensing,2009,13(6):1170-1186.
[20]Pranab K S.Estimates of the regression coefficient based on kendall’s tau[J].Journal of the American Statistical Association,1968,63(324):1379-1389.
[21]邵霜霜,师庆东.基于FVC的新疆植被覆盖度时空变化[J].林业科学,2015,51(10):35-42.Shao S S,Shi Q D.Spatial and temporal change of vegetation cover in Xinjiang based on FVC[J].Scientia Silvae Sinicae,2015,51(10):35-42.
[22]江田汉,邓莲堂.Hurst指数估计中存在的若干问题:以在气候变化研究中的应用为例[J].地理科学,2004,24(2):177-182.Jiang T H,Deng L T.Some problems in estimating a Hurst exponent:a case study of applicatings to climatic change[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2004,24(2):177-182.
[23]叶子君,欧阳宸曦,冯子悦,等.基于Hurst模型的庐山自然保护区植被覆盖优势及其可持续性分析[J].环境与可持续发展,2015,40(1):168-172.Ye Z J,Ouyang C X,Feng Z Y,et al.Analysis of the dominance and sustainability of vegetation cover in Lushan Nature Reserve[J].Environment and Sustainable Development,2015,40(1):168-172.
[24]Cao R,Jiang W,Yuan L,et al.Inter-annual variations in vegetation and their response to climatic factors in the upper catchments of the Yellow River from 2000to 2010[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences,2014,24(6):963-979.
[25]袁丽华,蒋卫国,申文明,等.2000-2010年黄河流域植被覆盖的时空变化[J].生态学报,2013,33(24):7798-7806.Yuan L H,Jiang W G,Shen W M,et al.The spatio-temporal variations of vegetation cover in the Yellow River Basin from2000to 2010[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2013,33(24):7798-7806.
[26]黄麟,邵全琴,刘纪远.近30年来青海省三江源区草地的土壤侵蚀时空分析[J].地球信息科学学报,2011,13(1):12-21.Huang L,Shao Q Q,Liu J Y.Spatial-temporal analysis of soil erosion in grassland over the past three decades in Sanjiangyuan region,Qinghai province,China[J].Journal of Geo-Information Science,2011,13(1):12-21.
[2]赵健赟,彭军还.基于MODIS NDVI的青海高原植被覆盖时空变化特征分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2016,30(4):67-73.Zhao J Y,Peng J H.Spatiotemporal variation of the vegetation coverage in Qinghai Plateau based on MODIS NDVI data[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2016,30(4):67-73.
[3]安佑志,刘朝顺,施润和,等.基于MODIS时序数据的长江三角洲地区植被覆盖时空变化分析[J].生态环境学报,2012,21(12):1923-1927.An Y Z,Liu C S,Shi R H,et al.Spatio-temporal analysis of the vegetation changes based on MODIS time-series data in the Yangtze River Delta region[J].Ecology and Environmental Sciences,2012,21(12):1923-1927.
[4]龚斌,甘小莉,刘伟玲,等.基于EOF分析的三江源区植被覆盖变化时空分布特征[J].地学前缘,2013,20(3):234-239.Gong B,Gan X L,Liu W L,et al.The vegetation distribution characteristics in the Three-River Headwaters Region in China based on EOF analysis[J].Earth Science Frontiers,2013,20(3):234-239.
[5]王兮之,陆龙,梁钊雄.青海湟水流域植被覆盖度时空变化分析[J].水土保持研究,2010,17(6):172-176.Wang X Z,Lu L,Liang Z X.Analysis on temporal-spatial change of vegetation coverage in Huangshui watershed[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2010,17(6):172-176.
[6]邵全琴,樊江文,刘纪远,等.三江源生态保护和建设一期工程生态成效评估[J].地理学报,2016,71(1):3-20.Shao Q Q,Fan J W,Liu J Y,et al.Assessment on the effects of the first-stage ecological conservation and restoration project in Sanjiangyuan region[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2016,71(1):3-20.
[7]丁明军,张镱锂,刘林山,等.1982-2009年青藏高原草地覆盖度时空变化特征[J].自然资源学报,2010,25(12):2114-2122.Ding M J,Zhang Y L,Liu L S,et al.Temporal and spatial distribution of grassland coverage change in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau from 1982to 2009[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2010,25(12):2114-2122.
[8]刘栎杉,延军平,李双双.2000-2009年青海省植被覆盖时空变化特征[J].水土保持通报,2014,34(1):263-267.Liu L S,Yan J P,Li S S.Spatial-temporal characteristics of vegetation restoration in Qinghai province from 2000to 2009[J].Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation,2014,34(1):263-267.
[9]王莉雯,卫亚星,牛铮.基于遥感的青海省植被覆盖时空变化定量分析[J].环境科学,2008,29(6):1754-1760.Wang L W,Wei Y X,Niu Z.Analysis of vegetation spatial and temporal variations in Qinghai province based on remote sensing[J].Environmental Science,2008,29(6):1754-1760.
[10]周清波,刘佳,王利民,等.EOS-MODIS卫星数据的农业应用现状及前景分析[J].农业图书情报学刊,2005,17(2):202-205.Zhou Q B,Liu J,Wang L M,et al.Current situation and prospect analysis of the application of EOS-MODIS satellite data in agriculture[J].Journal of Library and Information Sciences in Agriculture,2005,17(2):202-205.
[11]刘玲玲,刘良云,胡勇.基于AVHRR和MODIS数据的全球植被物候比较分析[J].遥感技术与应用,2012,27(5):754-762.Liu L L,Liu L Y,Hu Y.Comparative analysis of global vegetation phenology based on AVHRR and MODIS[J].Remote Sensing Technology and Application,2012,27(5):754-762.
[12]徐根生,何应法,付炜,等.基于MOD13Q1的永州近15年植被变化研究[J].甘肃农业科技,2015(3):27-29.Xu G S,He Y F,Fu W,et al.Study on the vegetation change of Yongzhou in resent 15years based on MOD13Q1[J].Gansu Agricultural Science and Technology,2015(3):27-29.
[13]崔晓临,赵娟,白红英,等.基于MODIS NDVI的陕西省植被覆盖变化分析[J].西北农林科技大学学报(自然科学版),2013,41(5):87-93.Cui X L,Zhao J,Bai H Y,et al.Analysis of vegetation coverage change in Shaanxi province based on MODIS NDVI[J].Journal of Northwest A&F University(Natural Science Edition),2013,41(5):87-93.
[14]何磊,王超,别强,等.利用MOD13Q1产品监测肯尼亚2001-2010年荒漠化动[J].中国沙漠,2013,33(1):46-52.He L,Wang C,Bie Q,et al.Minitoring of desertification dynamic in Kenya during 2001-2010using MOD13Q1date[J].Journal of Desert Research,2013,33(1):46-52.
[15]张忠孝.青海地理[M].西宁:青海人民出版社,2009.Zhang Z X.Geography of Qinghai[M].Xining:Qinghai People’s Publishing House,2009.
[16]杨少文,董斌,盛书薇,等.升金湖湿地保护区植被覆盖变化及其主要驱动因子分析[J].西北农林科技大学学报(自然科学版),2016,44(8):177-184.Yang S W,Dong B,Sheng S W,et al.Change in vegetation coverage and the main driving factors in Shengjin Lake wetland reserve[J].Journal of Northwest A&F University(Natural Science Edition),2016,44(8):177-184.
[17]刘艳,李杨,崔彩霞,等.MODIS MOD13Q1数据在北疆荒漠化监测中的应用评价[J].草业学报,2010,19(3):14-21.Liu Y,Li Y,Cui C X,et al.Evaluation of MODIS MOD13Q1data in desertification in the north area of Xinjiang[J].Acta Prataculturae Sinica,2010,19(3):14-21.
[18]Fensholt R,Langanke T,Rasmussen K,et al.Greenness in semiarid areas across the globe 1981-2007:an Earth Observing Satellite based analysis of trends and drivers[J].Remote Sensing of Environment,2012,121(2):144-158.
[19]蔡博峰,于嵘.基于遥感的植被长时序趋势特征研究进展及评价[J].遥感学报,2009,13(6):1170-1186.Cai B F,Yu R.Advance and evaluation in the long time series vegetation trends research based on remote sensing[J].Journal of Remote Sensing,2009,13(6):1170-1186.
[20]Pranab K S.Estimates of the regression coefficient based on kendall’s tau[J].Journal of the American Statistical Association,1968,63(324):1379-1389.
[21]邵霜霜,师庆东.基于FVC的新疆植被覆盖度时空变化[J].林业科学,2015,51(10):35-42.Shao S S,Shi Q D.Spatial and temporal change of vegetation cover in Xinjiang based on FVC[J].Scientia Silvae Sinicae,2015,51(10):35-42.
[22]江田汉,邓莲堂.Hurst指数估计中存在的若干问题:以在气候变化研究中的应用为例[J].地理科学,2004,24(2):177-182.Jiang T H,Deng L T.Some problems in estimating a Hurst exponent:a case study of applicatings to climatic change[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2004,24(2):177-182.
[23]叶子君,欧阳宸曦,冯子悦,等.基于Hurst模型的庐山自然保护区植被覆盖优势及其可持续性分析[J].环境与可持续发展,2015,40(1):168-172.Ye Z J,Ouyang C X,Feng Z Y,et al.Analysis of the dominance and sustainability of vegetation cover in Lushan Nature Reserve[J].Environment and Sustainable Development,2015,40(1):168-172.
[24]Cao R,Jiang W,Yuan L,et al.Inter-annual variations in vegetation and their response to climatic factors in the upper catchments of the Yellow River from 2000to 2010[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences,2014,24(6):963-979.
[25]袁丽华,蒋卫国,申文明,等.2000-2010年黄河流域植被覆盖的时空变化[J].生态学报,2013,33(24):7798-7806.Yuan L H,Jiang W G,Shen W M,et al.The spatio-temporal variations of vegetation cover in the Yellow River Basin from2000to 2010[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2013,33(24):7798-7806.
[26]黄麟,邵全琴,刘纪远.近30年来青海省三江源区草地的土壤侵蚀时空分析[J].地球信息科学学报,2011,13(1):12-21.Huang L,Shao Q Q,Liu J Y.Spatial-temporal analysis of soil erosion in grassland over the past three decades in Sanjiangyuan region,Qinghai province,China[J].Journal of Geo-Information Science,2011,13(1):12-21.