强震后既有建筑火灾危险性的模糊数学评估模型研究

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英文篇名：A Fire Risk Assessment Model Based on Fuzzy Mathematics for the Existing Buildings after Strong Earthquakes 作者：胡淑荣 英文作者：HU Shurong;State Academy of Forestry Administration; 关键词：模糊数学 ; 强震后既有建筑 ; 火灾 ; 危险性评估 ; 模型 英文关键词：fuzzy mathematics;;existing buildings after strong earthquake;;fire;;risk assessment;;model 中文刊名：ZBDZ 英文刊名：China Earthquake Engineering Journal 机构：国家林业局管理干部学院; 出版日期：2019-02-15 出版单位：地震工程学报 年：2019 期：v.41 基金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(61673138) 语种：中文; 页：ZBDZ201901028 页数：7 CN：01 ISSN：62-1208/P 分类号：207-213

摘要

在强烈地震发生后,会引发建筑火灾等次生灾害,涉及因素较多,传统火灾危险性数学模型忽略了强震后既有建筑发生火灾时不同因素的随机性与模糊性特性,难于建立健全的评估数学模型,导致评估精度低。为解决该问题,通过分析强震后既有建筑火灾影响,用因素模糊数学方法建立强震后既有建筑火灾危险性评估数学模型及评估体系。具体方法是对评估指标体系中各层因素针对上层因素影响进行评分,建立判断矩阵,获取权重。确定隶属度矩阵,获取强震后既有建筑火灾危险性评估的因素集与评语集,构造单因素评判,给评估集中的因素赋予权重,进行一级模糊评估。把一级评估结果当成二级评估的单因素评估,通过模糊数学理论完成对强震后既有建筑火灾危险性的评估,得到综合评估结果。实验结果表明,采用所提模型进行危险性评估,得到结果符合实际情况,与其他模型相比,所提模型评估精度高。
        Strong earthquakes may result in secondary disasters, such as building fires, which involve several factors. The traditional mathematical models that are used for assessing the fire risk ignore the randomness and fuzziness of different factors observed in the existing buildings after the occurrence of strong earthquakes, leading to low evaluation accuracy. To solve this problem, a mathematical model was established using a fuzzy mathematics method for assessing the fire risk in existing buildings after the occurrence of strong earthquakes. Further, the factors influencing the occurrence of fire in existing buildings after a strong earthquake were analyzed, and a fire risk assessment system was established for the existing buildings after a strong earthquake. The factors belonging to each layer in the evaluation index system were graded according to their influence on the factors of upper layer. The judgment matrix was further established, and the weight was obtained. The factor and comment sets required for assessing the fire risk in the existing buildings after the occurrence of strong earthquakes were obtained by determining the membership matrix. Single factor evaluation was further performed to realize first-grade fuzzy evaluation. The first-grade evaluation result was considered to be the single factor for performing second-grade evaluation. The fire risk assessment of the buildings after the occurrence of strong earthquakes was completed using the fuzzy mathematical analysis. The experimental results denoted that the proposed model is more suitable for real-life situations and more accurate when compared to other models.

引文

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