国际外部需求、关税传导与消费品价格
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摘要
本文基于关税传导研究框架,研究了国际市场需求变化对中国国内消费市场的影响。通过匹配商品进口关税、国内消费价格及海关贸易数据,度量了国内不同消费市场的国际外部需求,刻画出中国2000-2010年126个地级市70种消费商品的关税传导路径。研究结果表明:在国际外部需求越高的地区,企业通过出口规避进口竞争的意愿越强,国内市场最终价格受关税影响越小,关税传导机制发挥越弱;此外,非参数估计结果显示国际外部需求上升带来的这种阻碍作用存在显著的边际递增效应。
This paper studies for the first time the impact that international market demand exerts on the domestic consumer market based on a research framework using the tariff pass-through.By matching import tariffs, domestic consumer prices and customs trade data, the external demand for the different domestic consumer markets is calculated, and the tariff pass-through mechanism that accurately covers 70 varieties of consumer goods in 126 Chinese prefectural-level cities between 2000 and 2010 is described.The results show that the suppliers of the domestic markets with a high external demand tend to have a greater impetus when exporting to avoid the competition caused by the tariff reduction, resulting in the final price of the commodity being less impacted and indicating that the tariff pass-through mechanism is weakened by external demand.The non-parametric estimate indicates that the lower the tariff, the greater the impediment will be.The paper fills in the existing gap in studies on the impact of external demand on the market from the perspective of retail prices by linking international and domestic consumer markets.
This paper studies for the first time the impact that international market demand exerts on the domestic consumer market based on a research framework using the tariff pass-through.By matching import tariffs, domestic consumer prices and customs trade data, the external demand for the different domestic consumer markets is calculated, and the tariff pass-through mechanism that accurately covers 70 varieties of consumer goods in 126 Chinese prefectural-level cities between 2000 and 2010 is described.The results show that the suppliers of the domestic markets with a high external demand tend to have a greater impetus when exporting to avoid the competition caused by the tariff reduction, resulting in the final price of the commodity being less impacted and indicating that the tariff pass-through mechanism is weakened by external demand.The non-parametric estimate indicates that the lower the tariff, the greater the impediment will be.The paper fills in the existing gap in studies on the impact of external demand on the market from the perspective of retail prices by linking international and domestic consumer markets.
引文
戴觅、茅锐(2015):《外需冲击、企业出口与内销:金融危机时期的经验证据》,《世界经济》第1期。
樊纲、王小鲁、马光荣(2011):《中国市场化进程对经济增长的贡献》,《经济研究》第9期。
韩立岩、杜春越(2012):《收入差距、借贷水平与居民消费的地区及城乡差异》,《经济研究》增1期。
黄娅娜、宗庆庆(2014):《中国城镇居民的消费习惯形成效应》,《经济研究》增1期。
简泽、张涛、伏玉林(2014):《进口自由化、竞争与本土企业的全要素生产率——基于中国加入WTO的一个自然实验》,《经济研究》第8期。
刘晓光、张勋、方文全(2015):《基础设施的城乡收入分配效应:基于劳动力转移的视角》,《世界经济》第3期。
罗知、郭熙保(2010):《进口商品价格波动对城镇居民消费支出的影响》,《经济研究》第12期。
毛其淋、盛斌(2014):《贸易自由化与中国制造业企业出口行为:“入世”是否促进了出口参与?》,《经济学(季刊)》第2期。
孙浦阳、张靖佳、姜小雨(2017):《电子商务、搜寻成本与消费价格变化》,《经济研究》第7期。
王孝松、谢申祥(2012):《国际农产品价格如何影响了中国农产品价格?》,《经济研究》第3期。
肖德、杨弘、唐威(2013):《贸易自由化对中国地区经济发展差异影响的理论分析与实证检验》,《管理世界》第5期。
叶德珠、连玉君、黄有光、李东辉(2012):《消费文化、认知偏差与消费行为偏差》,《经济研究》第2期。
余淼杰、李乐融(2016):《贸易自由化与进口中间品质量升级——来自中国海关产品层面的证据》,《经济学(季刊)》第3期。
余华义、黄燕芬(2015):《货币政策效果区域异质性、房价溢出效应与房价对通胀的跨区影响》,《金融研究》第2期。
张光南、洪国志、陈广汉(2013):《基础设施、空间溢出与制造业成本效应》,《经济学(季刊)》第1期。
张龑、孙浦阳(2017):《需求网络结构、销售策略与出口波动:来自中国企业的证据》,《世界经济》第3期。
周茂、陆毅、符大海(2016):《贸易自由化与中国产业升级:事实与机制》,《世界经济》第10期。
Ahn,J.B.and McQuoid,A.F.“Capacity Constrained Exporters:Identifying Increasing Marginal Cost.” Economic Inquiry,2017,55(3),pp.1175-1191.
Almunia,M.;Lopez-Rodriguez,D.;Antras,P.and Morales,E.“Venting Out:Exports during a Domestic Slump.” NBER Working Papers,No.25372,2018.
Amiti,M.;Itskhoki,O.and Konings,J.“Importers,Exporters,and Exchange Rate Disconnect.” The American Economic Review,2014,104(7),pp.1942-1978.
Atkin,D.and Donaldson,D.“Who’s Getting Globalized?The Size and Implications of Intra-National Trade Costs.” NBER Working Papers,No.21439,2015.
Bas,M.and Strauss-Kahn,V.“Input-Trade Liberalization,Export Prices and Quality Upgrading.” Journal of International Economics,2015,95(2),pp.250-262.
Bazzi,S.and Blattman,C.“Economic Shocks and Conflict:Evidence from Commodity Prices.” American Economic Journal:Macroeconomics,2014,6(4),pp.1-38.
Belke,A.;Oeking,A.and Setzer,R.“Domestic Demand,Capacity Constraints and Exporting Dynamics:Empirical Evidence for Vulnerable Euro Area Countries.” Economic Modelling,2015,48,pp.315-325.
Berman,N.;Berthou,A.and Héricourt,J.“Export Dynamics and Sales at Home.” Journal of International Economics,2015,96(2),pp.298-310.
Berman,N.and Couttenier,M.“External Shocks,Internal Shots:The Geography of Civil Conflicts.” Review of Economics and Statistics,2015,97(4),pp.758-776.
Berner,E.;Birg,L.and Boddin,D.“Retailers and Consumers:The Pass-Through of Import Price Changes.” The World Economy,2017,40(7),pp.1314-1344.
Blum,B.S.;Claro,S.and Horstmann,I.J.“Occasional and Perennial Exporters.” Journal of International Economics,2013,90(1),pp.65-74.
Brandt,L.and Morrow,P.M.“Tariffs and the Organization of Trade in China.” Journal of International Economics,2017,104,pp.85-103.
Cavallo,A.“Are Online and Offline Prices Similar?Evidence from Multi-Channel Retailers.” The American Economic Review,2017(1),pp.283-303.
Chaney,T.“Distorted Gravity:The Intensive and Extensive Margins of International Trade.” The American Economic Review,2008,98(4),pp.1707-1721.
Chaney,T.“Liquidity Constrained Exporters.” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,2016,72,pp.141-154.
Crucini,M.;C.Telmer and Zachariadis,M.“Price Dispersion:The Role of Distance,Borders and Location.” Society for Economic Dynamics,meeting papers 767,2005.
Eaton,J.;Kortum,S.and Kramarz,F.“An Anatomy of International Trade:Evidence from French Firms.” Econometrica,2011,79(5),pp.1453-1498.
Edmond,C.;Midrigan,V.and Xu,D.Y.“Competition,Markups,and the Gains from International Trade.” The American Economic Review,2015,105(10),pp.3183-3221.
Eppinger,P.S.;Meythaler,N.;Sindlinger,M.M.and Smolka,M.“The Great Trade Collapse and the Spanish Export Miracle:Firm-Level Evidence from the Crisis.” The World Economy,2018,41(2),pp.457-493.
Esteves,P.S.and Rua,A.“Is There a Role for Domestic Demand Pressure on Export Performance?”Empirical Economics,2015,49(4),pp.1173-1189.
Feenstra,R.C.and Weinstein,D.E.“Globalization,Markups,and US Welfare.” Journal of Political Economy,2017,125(4),pp.1040-1074.
Galle,S.;Rodríguez-Clare,A.and Yi,M.“Slicing the Pie:Quantifying the Aggregate and Distributional Effects of Trade.” NBER Working Papers,No.23737,2017.
Han,J.;Liu,R.;Marchand,B.U.and Zhang,J.“Market Structure,Imperfect Tariff Pass-Through,and Household Welfare in Urban China.” Journal of International Economics,2016,100,pp.220-232.
Kohn,D.;Leibovici,F.and Szkup,M.“Financial Frictions and New Exporter Dynamics.” International Economic Review,2016,57(2),pp.453-486.
Ludema,R.D.and Yu,Z.“Tariff Pass-Through,Firm Heterogeneity and Product Quality.” Journal of International Economics,2016,103,pp.234-249.
Marchand,B.U.“Tariff Pass-Through and the Distributional Effects of Trade Liberalization.” Journal of Development Economics,2012,99(2),pp.265-281.
Mayer,T.;Melitz,M.and Ottaviano,G.I.“Market Size,Competition,and the Product Mix of Exporters.” The American Economic Review,2014,104(2),pp.495-536.
Melitz.M.J.“The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity.” Econometrica,2003,71(6),pp.1695-1725.
Melitz.M.J.and Ottaviano,G.I.P.“Market Size,Trade,and Productivity.” The Review of Economic Studies,2008,75(1),pp.295-316.
Mggioni,D.;Turco,A.L.and Gallegati,M.“Does Product Complexity Matter for Firms’ Output Volatility.”Journal of Development Economics,2016,121,pp.94-109.
Mudenda,D.“Tariffs and Intranational Retail Price Dispersion:Evidence from Zambia.” Economic Society of South Africa Biennial Conference Working Paper,2015.
Nicita,A.“The Price Effect of Tariff Liberalization:Measuring the Impact on Household Welfare.” Journal of Development Economics,2009,89(1),pp.19-27.
Pierce,J.R.and Schott,p.K.“A Concordance between Ten-Digit U.S.Harmonized System Codes and SIC/NAICS Product Classes and Industries.” Journal of Economic and Social Measurement,2012,37(1-2),pp.61-96.
Rauch,J.E.“Networks Versus Markets in International Trade.” Journal of International Economics,1999,48(1),pp.7-35.
Rho,Y.W.and Rodrigue,J.“Firm-Level Investment and Export Dynamics.” International Economic Review,2016,57(1),pp.271-304.
Soderbery,A.“Market Size,Structure,and Access:Trade with Capacity Constraints.” European Economic Review,2014,70,pp.276-298.
Vannoorenberghe,G.“Firm Volatility and Exports.” Journal of International Economics,2012,86(1),pp.57-67.
Wagner,R.and Zahler,A.“New Exports from Emerging Markets:Do Followers Benefit from Pioneers .”Journal of Development Economics,2015,114,pp.203-223.
Yakovlev,E.and Zhuravskaya,E.“The Unequal Enforcement of Liberalization:Evidence from Russia’s Reform of Business Regulation.” Journal of the European Economic Association,2013,11(4),pp.808-838.
(1)数据来源于:http://tariffdata.wto.org/ReportersAndProducts.aspx。
(2)为简化模型,本文参照Soderbery(2014)的做法,省略了企业下标。
(3)参照经典关税传导的文献设定,国内消费市场零售价格由国内和进口商品价格共同决定,并且与Nicita(2009)的模型保持一致,进口关税只影响进口商品价格。原因是关税传导机制解释的是进口关税下降如何引发国内市场竞争,从而导致国内消费市场价格下降,因此国内生产的产品定价不受关税影响。在Nicita(2009)的研究中,国内生产产品定价更准确的定义是国内生产者定价。本文的本国商品同样指国内生产者定价,其定价不受本国关税影响,但因为本国商品和进口商品共同决定国内消费市场价格,进口商品价格与进口关税有关,所以国内消费市场定价与关税下降引起的市场竞争有关,这也是关税传导理论的核心。在本文中,为保持模型前后变量的一致性,我们称国内生产者销售的商品为本国商品。
(4)类似研究方法在国际贸易冲击文献中也得到广泛应用(Bazzi和Blattman,2014)。
(5)为核对数据真实性,我们将世界贸易数据库中的中国进口数据与微观企业中国海关数据进行比对,发现两者相差不大,说明数据比较可靠。
(6)HS编码自1988年颁布实施以来,分别在1996、2002、2007以及2012年进行了4次修订。
(7)数据均来自《中国区域经济统计年鉴》和《中国统计年鉴》。
(8)首先,计算工业企业数据库中企业层面的TFP;其次,为保证价格数据库中商品名称与企业数据库中的行业代码匹配一致,我们将企业数据库中的行业代码统一转换为2002年国民经济4分位行业代码,并通过行业加总的方式得到不同地区不同行业的TFP;最后,在价格库中70种消费品与25个国民经济4分位行业代码对应的基础上,得到地区-商品维度的TFP,并进一步与样本数据进行匹配回归。
樊纲、王小鲁、马光荣(2011):《中国市场化进程对经济增长的贡献》,《经济研究》第9期。
韩立岩、杜春越(2012):《收入差距、借贷水平与居民消费的地区及城乡差异》,《经济研究》增1期。
黄娅娜、宗庆庆(2014):《中国城镇居民的消费习惯形成效应》,《经济研究》增1期。
简泽、张涛、伏玉林(2014):《进口自由化、竞争与本土企业的全要素生产率——基于中国加入WTO的一个自然实验》,《经济研究》第8期。
刘晓光、张勋、方文全(2015):《基础设施的城乡收入分配效应:基于劳动力转移的视角》,《世界经济》第3期。
罗知、郭熙保(2010):《进口商品价格波动对城镇居民消费支出的影响》,《经济研究》第12期。
毛其淋、盛斌(2014):《贸易自由化与中国制造业企业出口行为:“入世”是否促进了出口参与?》,《经济学(季刊)》第2期。
孙浦阳、张靖佳、姜小雨(2017):《电子商务、搜寻成本与消费价格变化》,《经济研究》第7期。
王孝松、谢申祥(2012):《国际农产品价格如何影响了中国农产品价格?》,《经济研究》第3期。
肖德、杨弘、唐威(2013):《贸易自由化对中国地区经济发展差异影响的理论分析与实证检验》,《管理世界》第5期。
叶德珠、连玉君、黄有光、李东辉(2012):《消费文化、认知偏差与消费行为偏差》,《经济研究》第2期。
余淼杰、李乐融(2016):《贸易自由化与进口中间品质量升级——来自中国海关产品层面的证据》,《经济学(季刊)》第3期。
余华义、黄燕芬(2015):《货币政策效果区域异质性、房价溢出效应与房价对通胀的跨区影响》,《金融研究》第2期。
张光南、洪国志、陈广汉(2013):《基础设施、空间溢出与制造业成本效应》,《经济学(季刊)》第1期。
张龑、孙浦阳(2017):《需求网络结构、销售策略与出口波动:来自中国企业的证据》,《世界经济》第3期。
周茂、陆毅、符大海(2016):《贸易自由化与中国产业升级:事实与机制》,《世界经济》第10期。
Ahn,J.B.and McQuoid,A.F.“Capacity Constrained Exporters:Identifying Increasing Marginal Cost.” Economic Inquiry,2017,55(3),pp.1175-1191.
Almunia,M.;Lopez-Rodriguez,D.;Antras,P.and Morales,E.“Venting Out:Exports during a Domestic Slump.” NBER Working Papers,No.25372,2018.
Amiti,M.;Itskhoki,O.and Konings,J.“Importers,Exporters,and Exchange Rate Disconnect.” The American Economic Review,2014,104(7),pp.1942-1978.
Atkin,D.and Donaldson,D.“Who’s Getting Globalized?The Size and Implications of Intra-National Trade Costs.” NBER Working Papers,No.21439,2015.
Bas,M.and Strauss-Kahn,V.“Input-Trade Liberalization,Export Prices and Quality Upgrading.” Journal of International Economics,2015,95(2),pp.250-262.
Bazzi,S.and Blattman,C.“Economic Shocks and Conflict:Evidence from Commodity Prices.” American Economic Journal:Macroeconomics,2014,6(4),pp.1-38.
Belke,A.;Oeking,A.and Setzer,R.“Domestic Demand,Capacity Constraints and Exporting Dynamics:Empirical Evidence for Vulnerable Euro Area Countries.” Economic Modelling,2015,48,pp.315-325.
Berman,N.;Berthou,A.and Héricourt,J.“Export Dynamics and Sales at Home.” Journal of International Economics,2015,96(2),pp.298-310.
Berman,N.and Couttenier,M.“External Shocks,Internal Shots:The Geography of Civil Conflicts.” Review of Economics and Statistics,2015,97(4),pp.758-776.
Berner,E.;Birg,L.and Boddin,D.“Retailers and Consumers:The Pass-Through of Import Price Changes.” The World Economy,2017,40(7),pp.1314-1344.
Blum,B.S.;Claro,S.and Horstmann,I.J.“Occasional and Perennial Exporters.” Journal of International Economics,2013,90(1),pp.65-74.
Brandt,L.and Morrow,P.M.“Tariffs and the Organization of Trade in China.” Journal of International Economics,2017,104,pp.85-103.
Cavallo,A.“Are Online and Offline Prices Similar?Evidence from Multi-Channel Retailers.” The American Economic Review,2017(1),pp.283-303.
Chaney,T.“Distorted Gravity:The Intensive and Extensive Margins of International Trade.” The American Economic Review,2008,98(4),pp.1707-1721.
Chaney,T.“Liquidity Constrained Exporters.” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,2016,72,pp.141-154.
Crucini,M.;C.Telmer and Zachariadis,M.“Price Dispersion:The Role of Distance,Borders and Location.” Society for Economic Dynamics,meeting papers 767,2005.
Eaton,J.;Kortum,S.and Kramarz,F.“An Anatomy of International Trade:Evidence from French Firms.” Econometrica,2011,79(5),pp.1453-1498.
Edmond,C.;Midrigan,V.and Xu,D.Y.“Competition,Markups,and the Gains from International Trade.” The American Economic Review,2015,105(10),pp.3183-3221.
Eppinger,P.S.;Meythaler,N.;Sindlinger,M.M.and Smolka,M.“The Great Trade Collapse and the Spanish Export Miracle:Firm-Level Evidence from the Crisis.” The World Economy,2018,41(2),pp.457-493.
Esteves,P.S.and Rua,A.“Is There a Role for Domestic Demand Pressure on Export Performance?”Empirical Economics,2015,49(4),pp.1173-1189.
Feenstra,R.C.and Weinstein,D.E.“Globalization,Markups,and US Welfare.” Journal of Political Economy,2017,125(4),pp.1040-1074.
Galle,S.;Rodríguez-Clare,A.and Yi,M.“Slicing the Pie:Quantifying the Aggregate and Distributional Effects of Trade.” NBER Working Papers,No.23737,2017.
Han,J.;Liu,R.;Marchand,B.U.and Zhang,J.“Market Structure,Imperfect Tariff Pass-Through,and Household Welfare in Urban China.” Journal of International Economics,2016,100,pp.220-232.
Kohn,D.;Leibovici,F.and Szkup,M.“Financial Frictions and New Exporter Dynamics.” International Economic Review,2016,57(2),pp.453-486.
Ludema,R.D.and Yu,Z.“Tariff Pass-Through,Firm Heterogeneity and Product Quality.” Journal of International Economics,2016,103,pp.234-249.
Marchand,B.U.“Tariff Pass-Through and the Distributional Effects of Trade Liberalization.” Journal of Development Economics,2012,99(2),pp.265-281.
Mayer,T.;Melitz,M.and Ottaviano,G.I.“Market Size,Competition,and the Product Mix of Exporters.” The American Economic Review,2014,104(2),pp.495-536.
Melitz.M.J.“The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity.” Econometrica,2003,71(6),pp.1695-1725.
Melitz.M.J.and Ottaviano,G.I.P.“Market Size,Trade,and Productivity.” The Review of Economic Studies,2008,75(1),pp.295-316.
Mggioni,D.;Turco,A.L.and Gallegati,M.“Does Product Complexity Matter for Firms’ Output Volatility.”Journal of Development Economics,2016,121,pp.94-109.
Mudenda,D.“Tariffs and Intranational Retail Price Dispersion:Evidence from Zambia.” Economic Society of South Africa Biennial Conference Working Paper,2015.
Nicita,A.“The Price Effect of Tariff Liberalization:Measuring the Impact on Household Welfare.” Journal of Development Economics,2009,89(1),pp.19-27.
Pierce,J.R.and Schott,p.K.“A Concordance between Ten-Digit U.S.Harmonized System Codes and SIC/NAICS Product Classes and Industries.” Journal of Economic and Social Measurement,2012,37(1-2),pp.61-96.
Rauch,J.E.“Networks Versus Markets in International Trade.” Journal of International Economics,1999,48(1),pp.7-35.
Rho,Y.W.and Rodrigue,J.“Firm-Level Investment and Export Dynamics.” International Economic Review,2016,57(1),pp.271-304.
Soderbery,A.“Market Size,Structure,and Access:Trade with Capacity Constraints.” European Economic Review,2014,70,pp.276-298.
Vannoorenberghe,G.“Firm Volatility and Exports.” Journal of International Economics,2012,86(1),pp.57-67.
Wagner,R.and Zahler,A.“New Exports from Emerging Markets:Do Followers Benefit from Pioneers .”Journal of Development Economics,2015,114,pp.203-223.
Yakovlev,E.and Zhuravskaya,E.“The Unequal Enforcement of Liberalization:Evidence from Russia’s Reform of Business Regulation.” Journal of the European Economic Association,2013,11(4),pp.808-838.
(1)数据来源于:http://tariffdata.wto.org/ReportersAndProducts.aspx。
(2)为简化模型,本文参照Soderbery(2014)的做法,省略了企业下标。
(3)参照经典关税传导的文献设定,国内消费市场零售价格由国内和进口商品价格共同决定,并且与Nicita(2009)的模型保持一致,进口关税只影响进口商品价格。原因是关税传导机制解释的是进口关税下降如何引发国内市场竞争,从而导致国内消费市场价格下降,因此国内生产的产品定价不受关税影响。在Nicita(2009)的研究中,国内生产产品定价更准确的定义是国内生产者定价。本文的本国商品同样指国内生产者定价,其定价不受本国关税影响,但因为本国商品和进口商品共同决定国内消费市场价格,进口商品价格与进口关税有关,所以国内消费市场定价与关税下降引起的市场竞争有关,这也是关税传导理论的核心。在本文中,为保持模型前后变量的一致性,我们称国内生产者销售的商品为本国商品。
(4)类似研究方法在国际贸易冲击文献中也得到广泛应用(Bazzi和Blattman,2014)。
(5)为核对数据真实性,我们将世界贸易数据库中的中国进口数据与微观企业中国海关数据进行比对,发现两者相差不大,说明数据比较可靠。
(6)HS编码自1988年颁布实施以来,分别在1996、2002、2007以及2012年进行了4次修订。
(7)数据均来自《中国区域经济统计年鉴》和《中国统计年鉴》。
(8)首先,计算工业企业数据库中企业层面的TFP;其次,为保证价格数据库中商品名称与企业数据库中的行业代码匹配一致,我们将企业数据库中的行业代码统一转换为2002年国民经济4分位行业代码,并通过行业加总的方式得到不同地区不同行业的TFP;最后,在价格库中70种消费品与25个国民经济4分位行业代码对应的基础上,得到地区-商品维度的TFP,并进一步与样本数据进行匹配回归。