西北太平洋热带气旋路径异常偏折的分类特征
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摘要
基于中国台风网CMA-STI热带气旋(TC)最佳路径资料,对1949—2016年西北太平洋TC路径发生异常偏折的地理位置进行K-means聚类分析,并将其分为五个区域。对各区TC路径异常偏折的频数、方向变化、周期及时间变率等特征进行分析。结果表明:(1)不同分区TC异常偏折高频月份不同,纬度较高区域主要发生在夏季,纬度较低区域则主要发生在秋季。(2)异常右折TC在发生偏折前移向主要为西北向,偏折后为北向;异常左折TC偏折前主要为北向,偏折后主要转为西北向。(3)西北太平洋TC异常偏折总频数存在准2～4年、准3～6年的年际变化周期,其长期变化趋势表现为20世纪80年代中期之前呈增加趋势,其后呈减少趋势,低纬区域年变化与之最为相似,中高纬区域变化趋势不明显。(4)将研究区域按5°×5°进一步栅格化统计TC异常偏折频数的时间变率,发现其地理分布表现为中国沿海为正、台湾岛以东海域为负的变化特征。其中沿海的增加趋势主要由异常右折增加引起,台湾岛以东洋面的减弱趋势主要由异常左折的减少引起。(5)异常右折TC强度增强的高频中心主要位于菲律宾半岛以东洋面,次中心位于中国南海中部,而强度减弱位于台湾岛西南区域;异常左折TC强度增强的高频中心位于南海中部,强度减弱中心位于我国东南沿海。
Based on the best track data of tropical cyclones(TCs) over the period 1949-2016 available from Shanghai Typhoon Institute, China Meteorological Administration. K-means cluster method is applied to classify unusual turning locations of TCs in western North Pacific into five regions. Then, a statistical analysis is performed to study occurrence、directional change、period and temporal variability of unusual turning TCs in different regions. Results show that:(1) Differences manifest in different regions for the occurrences of unusual turning TCs, while mainly occur in warmer summertime around higher latitude area,and mainly occur in autumn around the lower latitude area.(2) Analyses of their directions reveal that TC moving directions are mainly northwestward before the turning time, while tend to northward direction after the turning time for the unusual right-turning TCs. Motions occur mainly in the northward direction before the left-turning time, while they tend to northwestward direction after left-turning.(3) There are obvious periods of 2～4 years、3～6 years for the unusual turning TCs, variability shows that they are ascended before Mid-1980 s, while declined after that time. And the annual variation in the lower latitude region is more similar to the total, but there are no obvious features existing in the higher latitude.(4) The temporal variability of unusual turning occurrence frequencies within 5 ° × 5 ° grids represents positive tendency around Chinese Mainland coastal area, the negative tendency in the east of Taiwan Island. It is found that the increase of unusual right-turning TCs mainly contribute to the coastal area with increasing tendency,while unusual left-turning TCs mainly contribute to the decreasing tendency in the east of Taiwan Island.(5)During unusual right-turning period, there are two high-frequent centers, where the intensity of TCs are strengthened, one is in waters near Philippines, and the other is in the central part of South China Sea,respectively. While the high-frequent center of the weakened TCs is in the southwestern area of Taiwan Island. For the unusual left-turning TCs, the strengthened highest-frequent center of TCs is located in the central part of South China Sea, and the weakened center is located in the southeastern coast of China.
Based on the best track data of tropical cyclones(TCs) over the period 1949-2016 available from Shanghai Typhoon Institute, China Meteorological Administration. K-means cluster method is applied to classify unusual turning locations of TCs in western North Pacific into five regions. Then, a statistical analysis is performed to study occurrence、directional change、period and temporal variability of unusual turning TCs in different regions. Results show that:(1) Differences manifest in different regions for the occurrences of unusual turning TCs, while mainly occur in warmer summertime around higher latitude area,and mainly occur in autumn around the lower latitude area.(2) Analyses of their directions reveal that TC moving directions are mainly northwestward before the turning time, while tend to northward direction after the turning time for the unusual right-turning TCs. Motions occur mainly in the northward direction before the left-turning time, while they tend to northwestward direction after left-turning.(3) There are obvious periods of 2～4 years、3～6 years for the unusual turning TCs, variability shows that they are ascended before Mid-1980 s, while declined after that time. And the annual variation in the lower latitude region is more similar to the total, but there are no obvious features existing in the higher latitude.(4) The temporal variability of unusual turning occurrence frequencies within 5 ° × 5 ° grids represents positive tendency around Chinese Mainland coastal area, the negative tendency in the east of Taiwan Island. It is found that the increase of unusual right-turning TCs mainly contribute to the coastal area with increasing tendency,while unusual left-turning TCs mainly contribute to the decreasing tendency in the east of Taiwan Island.(5)During unusual right-turning period, there are two high-frequent centers, where the intensity of TCs are strengthened, one is in waters near Philippines, and the other is in the central part of South China Sea,respectively. While the high-frequent center of the weakened TCs is in the southwestern area of Taiwan Island. For the unusual left-turning TCs, the strengthened highest-frequent center of TCs is located in the central part of South China Sea, and the weakened center is located in the southeastern coast of China.
引文
[1]吴影,陈佩燕,雷小途.登陆热带气旋路径和强度预报的效益评估初步研究[J].热带气象学报,2017,33(5):675-682.
[2]许映龙,张玲.我国台风预报业务的现状及思考[J].气象, 2010, 36(7):43-49.
[3]中国科学院. TC突变现象机理及预报技术研究[M].北京:高等教育出版社, 2014.
[4] CHAN J C L, GRAY W M, KIDDER S Q. Forecasting tropical cyclone turning motion from surrounding wind and temperature fields[J].Mon Wea Rev, 1980, 108(6):778-792.
[5]麻素红,吴俞,瞿安祥,等. T213与T639模式热带气旋预报误差对比[J].应用气象学报, 2012, 23(2):167-173.
[6]徐祥德,解以扬,李培彦.阻塞结构对近海台风异常路径影响的数值试验[J].应用气象学报,1994, 5(1):104-108.
[7]魏娜,李英,胡姝. 1949—2008年热带气旋在中国大陆活动的统计特征及环流背景[J].热带气象学报, 2013, 29(1):17-27.
[8] WANG K, CHEN H, WANG J M. The impacts of interaction of a typhoon with the midlatitude trough on its track after the recurvature[J].J Trop Meteor, 2017, 23(2):202-209.
[9] Brand S. Interaction of binary tropical cyclones of the Western North Pacific Ocean[J]. J Appl Meteor, 1970, 9(3):433-441.
[10] CARR L E, ELSBERRY R L. Monsoonal interactions leading to sudden tropical cyclone track changes[J]. Mon Wea Rev, 1995, 123(2):265-289.
[11]高珊,何小宁,凌士兵. 0407号台风“蒲公英”路径突然北折的原因分析[J].应用海洋学报, 2005, 24(4):448-454.
[12] WEI N, LI Y, ZHANG D L, et al. A statistical analysis of the relationship between Upper-Tropospheric Cold Low and tropical cyclone track and intensity change over the Western North Pacific[J]. Mon Wea Rev, 2015, 144:160129100643007.
[13]白莉娜,马雷鸣,曾智华,等.热带气旋“南川”在2010年三个热带气旋异常路径中作用的数值模拟研究[J].热带气象学报, 2013, 29(3):421-431.
[14] BENDER M A, TULEYA R E, KURIHARA Y A. Numerical study of the effect of island terrain on tropical cyclones[J]. Mon Wea Rev,1987, 115(1):130.
[15]刘爱鸣,林毅,吴幸毓.台湾岛及邻近区域热带气旋异常路径特征分析[J].气象, 2010, 36(9):29-35.
[16]夏丽花,苏志重,刘爱鸣,等.台湾地形对1011号台风“凡亚比”影响的数值试验[J].暴雨灾害, 2014, 33(2):149-155.
[17]陈联寿,丁一汇.西北太平洋台风概论[M].北京:科学出版社, 1979.
[18]徐祥德,陈联寿,亢迪,等. TCM-90现场科学试验目标台风‘Flo’‘陀螺’偶极子型、“通风流”物理图像及其动力结构[M]//85-906-07课题组.台风科学、业务试验和天气动力学B论的研究(第二分册).北京:气象出版社,1996:227-281.
[19]张胜军,陈联寿,徐祥德. Helen台风(9505)异常路径的诊断分析与数值模拟[J].大气科学, 2005, 29(6):937-946.
[20] WU L,NI Z,DUAN J,et al. Sudden tropical cyclone track changes over Western North Pacific:A composite study[J]. Mon Wea Rev,2013,141:2 597-2 610.
[21]戴高菊.南海台风北折路径的初步研究[D].北京:中国气象科学研究院, 2013.
[22]戴高菊,李英.西北太平洋TC运动及其突变的若干统计特征[J].热带气象学报, 2014, 30(1):23-33.
[23] WU L, ZONG H, LIANG J. Observational analysis of sudden tropical cyclone track changes in the vicinity of the East China Sea[J]. J Atmos Sci, 2011, 68(12):3 012-3 031.
[24]周宜卿.西北太平洋热带气旋移动方向变化异常的统计及环流特征[D].南京信息工程大学, 2015.
[25] ZHANG X R, LI Y, ZHANG D L, et al. A 65-yr climatology of unusual tracks of tropical cyclones in the vicinity of China's coastal waters during 1949-2013[J]. J Appl Meteor Climatology, 2018, 57(1):155-170.
[26]郑颖青,余锦华,吴启树,等. K-均值用于西北太平洋TC路径分类[J].热带气象学报,2013,29(4):607-615.
[27] YU J H, ZHENG Y Q, WU Q S, et al. K-means clustering for classification of the northwestern Pacific tropical cyclone tracks[J]. J Trop Meteorol, 2016, 22(2):127-135.
[28] CAMARGO S J, ROBERTSON A W, GAFFNEY S J, et al. Cluster analysis of typhoon tracks. Part1:General properties[J]. J Climate, 2007,20(14):3 635-3 653.
[29] NAKAMURA J, LALL U, KUSHNIR Y, et al. Classifying north Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks by mass moments[J]. J Climate, 2009, 22(4):5 481-5 494.
[30]黄嘉佑.气象统计分析与预报方法[M].北京气象出版社, 2004:29-30.
[31] ZHAO Y, XU X D, ZHAO T L, et al. Extreme precipitation events in East China and associated moisture transport pathways[J]. Science China:Earth Science, 2016, 59(9):1-19.
[32]赵阳,王宇虹,黄武斌,等.中国东部陆海表面温差对夏季水汽输送及降水空间分布的影响[J].热带气象学报,2017, 33(6):822-830.
[33]雷小途,陈联寿.西北太平洋热带气旋活动的纬度分布特征[J].应用气象学报, 2002, 13(2):218-227.
[34] YU Y B. A statistical analysis on intensity change of tropical cyclones over the Western North Pacific[J]. J Trop Meteor, 2007, 13(1):14-16.
[2]许映龙,张玲.我国台风预报业务的现状及思考[J].气象, 2010, 36(7):43-49.
[3]中国科学院. TC突变现象机理及预报技术研究[M].北京:高等教育出版社, 2014.
[4] CHAN J C L, GRAY W M, KIDDER S Q. Forecasting tropical cyclone turning motion from surrounding wind and temperature fields[J].Mon Wea Rev, 1980, 108(6):778-792.
[5]麻素红,吴俞,瞿安祥,等. T213与T639模式热带气旋预报误差对比[J].应用气象学报, 2012, 23(2):167-173.
[6]徐祥德,解以扬,李培彦.阻塞结构对近海台风异常路径影响的数值试验[J].应用气象学报,1994, 5(1):104-108.
[7]魏娜,李英,胡姝. 1949—2008年热带气旋在中国大陆活动的统计特征及环流背景[J].热带气象学报, 2013, 29(1):17-27.
[8] WANG K, CHEN H, WANG J M. The impacts of interaction of a typhoon with the midlatitude trough on its track after the recurvature[J].J Trop Meteor, 2017, 23(2):202-209.
[9] Brand S. Interaction of binary tropical cyclones of the Western North Pacific Ocean[J]. J Appl Meteor, 1970, 9(3):433-441.
[10] CARR L E, ELSBERRY R L. Monsoonal interactions leading to sudden tropical cyclone track changes[J]. Mon Wea Rev, 1995, 123(2):265-289.
[11]高珊,何小宁,凌士兵. 0407号台风“蒲公英”路径突然北折的原因分析[J].应用海洋学报, 2005, 24(4):448-454.
[12] WEI N, LI Y, ZHANG D L, et al. A statistical analysis of the relationship between Upper-Tropospheric Cold Low and tropical cyclone track and intensity change over the Western North Pacific[J]. Mon Wea Rev, 2015, 144:160129100643007.
[13]白莉娜,马雷鸣,曾智华,等.热带气旋“南川”在2010年三个热带气旋异常路径中作用的数值模拟研究[J].热带气象学报, 2013, 29(3):421-431.
[14] BENDER M A, TULEYA R E, KURIHARA Y A. Numerical study of the effect of island terrain on tropical cyclones[J]. Mon Wea Rev,1987, 115(1):130.
[15]刘爱鸣,林毅,吴幸毓.台湾岛及邻近区域热带气旋异常路径特征分析[J].气象, 2010, 36(9):29-35.
[16]夏丽花,苏志重,刘爱鸣,等.台湾地形对1011号台风“凡亚比”影响的数值试验[J].暴雨灾害, 2014, 33(2):149-155.
[17]陈联寿,丁一汇.西北太平洋台风概论[M].北京:科学出版社, 1979.
[18]徐祥德,陈联寿,亢迪,等. TCM-90现场科学试验目标台风‘Flo’‘陀螺’偶极子型、“通风流”物理图像及其动力结构[M]//85-906-07课题组.台风科学、业务试验和天气动力学B论的研究(第二分册).北京:气象出版社,1996:227-281.
[19]张胜军,陈联寿,徐祥德. Helen台风(9505)异常路径的诊断分析与数值模拟[J].大气科学, 2005, 29(6):937-946.
[20] WU L,NI Z,DUAN J,et al. Sudden tropical cyclone track changes over Western North Pacific:A composite study[J]. Mon Wea Rev,2013,141:2 597-2 610.
[21]戴高菊.南海台风北折路径的初步研究[D].北京:中国气象科学研究院, 2013.
[22]戴高菊,李英.西北太平洋TC运动及其突变的若干统计特征[J].热带气象学报, 2014, 30(1):23-33.
[23] WU L, ZONG H, LIANG J. Observational analysis of sudden tropical cyclone track changes in the vicinity of the East China Sea[J]. J Atmos Sci, 2011, 68(12):3 012-3 031.
[24]周宜卿.西北太平洋热带气旋移动方向变化异常的统计及环流特征[D].南京信息工程大学, 2015.
[25] ZHANG X R, LI Y, ZHANG D L, et al. A 65-yr climatology of unusual tracks of tropical cyclones in the vicinity of China's coastal waters during 1949-2013[J]. J Appl Meteor Climatology, 2018, 57(1):155-170.
[26]郑颖青,余锦华,吴启树,等. K-均值用于西北太平洋TC路径分类[J].热带气象学报,2013,29(4):607-615.
[27] YU J H, ZHENG Y Q, WU Q S, et al. K-means clustering for classification of the northwestern Pacific tropical cyclone tracks[J]. J Trop Meteorol, 2016, 22(2):127-135.
[28] CAMARGO S J, ROBERTSON A W, GAFFNEY S J, et al. Cluster analysis of typhoon tracks. Part1:General properties[J]. J Climate, 2007,20(14):3 635-3 653.
[29] NAKAMURA J, LALL U, KUSHNIR Y, et al. Classifying north Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks by mass moments[J]. J Climate, 2009, 22(4):5 481-5 494.
[30]黄嘉佑.气象统计分析与预报方法[M].北京气象出版社, 2004:29-30.
[31] ZHAO Y, XU X D, ZHAO T L, et al. Extreme precipitation events in East China and associated moisture transport pathways[J]. Science China:Earth Science, 2016, 59(9):1-19.
[32]赵阳,王宇虹,黄武斌,等.中国东部陆海表面温差对夏季水汽输送及降水空间分布的影响[J].热带气象学报,2017, 33(6):822-830.
[33]雷小途,陈联寿.西北太平洋热带气旋活动的纬度分布特征[J].应用气象学报, 2002, 13(2):218-227.
[34] YU Y B. A statistical analysis on intensity change of tropical cyclones over the Western North Pacific[J]. J Trop Meteor, 2007, 13(1):14-16.