适应性治理与气候变化:内蒙古草原案例分析与对策探讨
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摘要
适应性治理通过边学边做,针对各地方的社会经济条件、自然生态系统、地方知识文化等基本特征,基于一个动态、自下而上和自组织的过程不断测试和修正制度安排与知识体系,形成一个旨在解决实际问题的循环过程。通过内蒙古3个地区案例的对比分析研究,基于对其气候变化风险和社会脆弱性的评估,发现其在气候变化影响下形成的不同程度的社会脆弱性正是源于不同的草原利用机制和基于此的社会合作机制。正是因为3个案例地的牧民有着不同的社会资本和社会记忆,所以他们面对极端天气导致的自然灾害时,采取了不同的应对方式,有的牧户可以依赖于社会资本移动牲畜来渡过难关,有的牧户则可以在嘎查范围内重启社会记忆,通过合理安排草场利用和移动牲畜提高自身的抗灾能力,而有的牧户则只能通过买草料独立抗灾。这样不同的结果有力证明了适应性治理在提升这些地区气候变化应对能力方面的必要性和可行性。在地区层面引入适应性治理,可以满足各利益相关方的需求,有利于自然、社会及管理的多学科协同,与"未来地球计划"的协同设计、协同实施和协同推广理念不谋而合,是"未来地球"思想在气候变化适应研究中的实践。
Through the adaptive governance,by which institutional arrangements and ecological knowledge are tested and revised in a dynamic,bottom-up,ongoing,self-organized,learning by doing process,different systems including social-economic system,natural ecosystem and local knowledge and culture system should be considered into the process of decision-making.Comparing three cases in Inner Mongolia,this article evaluates their climate change risk and social vulnerability,and explores the reasons of different adaptation capacity to climate extreme events,and illustrates the possibility to apply adaptive governance to the endeavor of decreasing the local vulnerability.We found that different herders have different strategies for coping with natural disasters because they have different social capital and social memory.Some herders could move out their livestock from drought area by using their social capital;some herders could reorganize grassland use and livestock moving based on their social memory;but some herders could only buy more and more fodder and forage.This research showed that introducing adaptive governance at local level may meet the different requirements of different stakeholders to adapt climate change,promote disciplinary cooperation between natural,social and management sciences.Therefore,adaptive governance has the same view with"Future Earth"on the conceptions of"co-design,co-produce,co-deliver",which can be developed as practical experiment in local adaptation to climate change.
Through the adaptive governance,by which institutional arrangements and ecological knowledge are tested and revised in a dynamic,bottom-up,ongoing,self-organized,learning by doing process,different systems including social-economic system,natural ecosystem and local knowledge and culture system should be considered into the process of decision-making.Comparing three cases in Inner Mongolia,this article evaluates their climate change risk and social vulnerability,and explores the reasons of different adaptation capacity to climate extreme events,and illustrates the possibility to apply adaptive governance to the endeavor of decreasing the local vulnerability.We found that different herders have different strategies for coping with natural disasters because they have different social capital and social memory.Some herders could move out their livestock from drought area by using their social capital;some herders could reorganize grassland use and livestock moving based on their social memory;but some herders could only buy more and more fodder and forage.This research showed that introducing adaptive governance at local level may meet the different requirements of different stakeholders to adapt climate change,promote disciplinary cooperation between natural,social and management sciences.Therefore,adaptive governance has the same view with"Future Earth"on the conceptions of"co-design,co-produce,co-deliver",which can be developed as practical experiment in local adaptation to climate change.
引文
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[26]Tanner T,Lewis D,Wrathall D,et al.Livelihood resilience in the face of climate change[J].Nature Climate Change,2014,5(1):23-26
[27]IPCC.Climate change 2001:the scientific basis[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2001
[28]Adger.Social and ecological resilience:are they related?[J].Progress in Human Geography,2000,24(3):347-364
[29]Cutter S L.Vulnerability to environmental hazards[J].Progress in Human Geography,1996,20(4):529-539
[30]裴浩,Cannon A,Whitfield P,等.近40年内蒙古候平均气温变化趋势[J].应用气象学报,2009,20(4):443-450
[31]路云阁,李双成,蔡运龙.近40年气候变化及其空间分异的多尺度研究:以内蒙古自治区为例[J].地理科学,2004(4):432-438
[32]赵媛媛,何春阳,李骁兵,等.干旱化与土地利用变化对中国北方草地与农牧交错带耕地自然生产潜力的综合影响评价[J].自然资源学报,2009,24(1):123-135
[33]高涛,肖苏君,乌兰.近47年(1961-2007年)内蒙古地区降水和气温的时空变化特征[J].内蒙古气象,2009(1):3-7
[34]Füssel H,Klein R.Climate change vulnerability assessments:an evolution of conceptual thinking[J].Climatic Change,2006,75(3):301-329
[35]Adger W N.Social vulnerability to climate change and extremes in coastal Vietnam[J].World Development,1999,27(2):249-269
[36]Adger W N,Kelly P M.Social vulnerability to climate change and the architecture of entitlements[J].Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change,1999,4(3):253-266
[37]张倩.气候变化下牧民应对自然灾害的脆弱性:以内蒙古荒漠草原为例[J].社会学研究,2011(6):171-195
[38]杨廷瑞.“游牧论”文集[C].北京:社会科学文献出版社,2015
[2]IPCC.Climate change 2012:managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation(SREX)[R].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2012
[3]Engle N L,Lemos M C.Unpacking governance:building adaptive capacity to climate change of river basin in Brazil[J].Global Environmental Change,2010,20(1):4-13
[4]Roger A P,Sarewitz D.Populag society back into the climate debtion and environment[J].Bringinate,2005,26(3):255-268
[5]中华人民共和国国家发展和改革委员会.国家应对气候变化规划(2014-2020年)[R/OL].2014[2017-11-02].www.sdpc.gov.cn/gzdt
[6]中华人民共和国国家发展和改革委员会.国家适应气候变化战略[R/OL].2013[2017-11-02].www.gov.cn/gzdt/att/att/site1
[7]Hurlbert M,Gupta J.Adaptive governance,uncertainty,and risk:policy framing and responses to climate change,drought,and flood[J].Risk Analysis,2016,36(2):339-356
[8]Adger W N,Arnell N W,Tompkins E L.Successful adaptation to climate change across scales[J].Global Environmental Change,2005,15:77-86
[9]Wilbanks T J,Kates R W.Global change in local places:how scale matters[J].Climatic Change,1999,43:601-628
[10]艾丽坤,杨颖.可持续性科学中与利益相关者的协同[J].世界科技研究与发展,2015:37(4):468-471
[11]艾丽坤,王晓毅.全球变化研究中自然科学和社会科学协同方法的探讨[J].地球科学进展,2015,30(11):1278-1286.DOI:10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2015.11.1278
[12]French S A.What is social memory?[J].Southern Cultures,1995,2(1):9-18.DOI:https://doi.org/10.1353/scu.1995.0049
[13]Brooks N,Adger W N,Kelly M P.The determinants of vulnerability and adaptive capacity at the national level and the implications for adaptation[J].Global Environmental Change,2005,15:151-163
[14]Berkes F,Folke C.Linking social and ecological systems:management practices and social mechanisms for building resilience[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1998
[15]Folke C,Hahn T,Olsson P,et al.Adaptive governance of socialecological systems[J].Annual Review of Environment and Resources,2005,30:441-473
[16]Plummer R,Armitage D.A resilience-based framework for evaluating adaptive co-management:linking ecology,economics and society in a complex world[J].Ecological Economics,2007,61(1):62-74
[17]Huitema D,Mostert E,Egas W,et al.Adaptive water governance:assessing the institutional prescriptions of adaptive(co-)management from a governance perspective and defining a research agenda[J].Ecology and Society,2009,14(1):1698-1707
[18]Armitage D R,Berkes F,Doubleday N.Introduction:moving beyond co-management[C]//Armitage D R,Berkes F,Doubleday N C.Adaptive co-management:collaboration,learning,and multi-level governance.Vancouver,British Columbia,Canada:University of British Columbia Press,2007
[19]Brunner R D,Steelman T D,Coe-Juell L,et al.Adaptive governance:integrating science policy and decision making[M].New York:Columbia University Press,2006
[20]Ostrom E.Crossing the great divide:coproduction,synergy,and development[J].World Development,1996,24:1073-1087
[21]Munaretto S,Siciliano G,E.Turvani M.Integrating adaptive governance and participatory multicriteria methods:a framework for climate adaptation governance[J].Ecology and Society,2014,19(2):74
[22]Bronen R,Chapin III F.Adaptive governance and institutional strategies for climate-induced community relocations in Alaska[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2013,110(23):9320-9325
[23]Brunner R,Lynch A.Adaptive governance and climate change[M].Boston,Massachusetts,USA:American Meteorological Society,2010
[24]邓敏,王慧敏.气候变化下适应性治理的学习模式研究:以哈密地区水权转让为例[J].系统工程理论与实践,2014(1):215-222
[25]Vasseur L,Jones M.Adaptation and resilience in the face of climate change:protecting the conditions of emergence through good governance[R].Brief for GSDR,2015
[26]Tanner T,Lewis D,Wrathall D,et al.Livelihood resilience in the face of climate change[J].Nature Climate Change,2014,5(1):23-26
[27]IPCC.Climate change 2001:the scientific basis[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2001
[28]Adger.Social and ecological resilience:are they related?[J].Progress in Human Geography,2000,24(3):347-364
[29]Cutter S L.Vulnerability to environmental hazards[J].Progress in Human Geography,1996,20(4):529-539
[30]裴浩,Cannon A,Whitfield P,等.近40年内蒙古候平均气温变化趋势[J].应用气象学报,2009,20(4):443-450
[31]路云阁,李双成,蔡运龙.近40年气候变化及其空间分异的多尺度研究:以内蒙古自治区为例[J].地理科学,2004(4):432-438
[32]赵媛媛,何春阳,李骁兵,等.干旱化与土地利用变化对中国北方草地与农牧交错带耕地自然生产潜力的综合影响评价[J].自然资源学报,2009,24(1):123-135
[33]高涛,肖苏君,乌兰.近47年(1961-2007年)内蒙古地区降水和气温的时空变化特征[J].内蒙古气象,2009(1):3-7
[34]Füssel H,Klein R.Climate change vulnerability assessments:an evolution of conceptual thinking[J].Climatic Change,2006,75(3):301-329
[35]Adger W N.Social vulnerability to climate change and extremes in coastal Vietnam[J].World Development,1999,27(2):249-269
[36]Adger W N,Kelly P M.Social vulnerability to climate change and the architecture of entitlements[J].Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change,1999,4(3):253-266
[37]张倩.气候变化下牧民应对自然灾害的脆弱性:以内蒙古荒漠草原为例[J].社会学研究,2011(6):171-195
[38]杨廷瑞.“游牧论”文集[C].北京:社会科学文献出版社,2015