技术进步的方向与经济高质量发展——基于全要素生产率和产业结构升级的视角
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摘要
技术进步的方向是影响宏观经济增长和产业结构变迁的重要因素,但鲜有文献就其对经济高质量发展的影响进行探究。本文根据标准化供给面系统方法,估算出1990—2016年间中国28个省级行政区的技术进步方向指数,并运用这一指数进行了基于偏向性技术进步的量化分析。计量回归结果表明,排除相关控制变量影响,偏向资本的技术进步对经济增长率提升和全要素生产率的进步具有正向作用,并且有利于产业结构从传统部门向现代部门、从低生产率部门向高生产率部门的转移,因而能够在一定程度上促进经济高质量发展;另一方面,资本偏向型技术进步会导致不同产业部门之间投入产出效率差距加大,不利于各产业协调发展,并且会导致劳动报酬比重下降,因此需要审慎考虑其在未来经济发展中的作用。
The direction of technological progress is an important factor affecting macroeconomic growth and industrial structure change,but few study has been taken on the impact of biased technological progress on high-quality economic development.Based on the standardized supply side system method,this paper estimated the technology progress direction index of 28 provincial-level administrative regions in China from 1990 to 2016,and conducted a quantitative analysis based on biased technology progress with this index.The results of econometric regression show that,excluding the influence of relevant control variables,technological progress in favor of capital has a positive effect on the improvement of economic growth rate and total factor productivity,and is conducive to the upgrading of industrial structure,so it can promote high-quality economic development to a certain extent.On the other hand,capital-biased technological progress is not conducive to the rationalization of industrial structure and the coordinated development of various industries,and will lead to the decline in the proportion of labor remuneration,which requires careful consideration of its role in future economic development.
The direction of technological progress is an important factor affecting macroeconomic growth and industrial structure change,but few study has been taken on the impact of biased technological progress on high-quality economic development.Based on the standardized supply side system method,this paper estimated the technology progress direction index of 28 provincial-level administrative regions in China from 1990 to 2016,and conducted a quantitative analysis based on biased technology progress with this index.The results of econometric regression show that,excluding the influence of relevant control variables,technological progress in favor of capital has a positive effect on the improvement of economic growth rate and total factor productivity,and is conducive to the upgrading of industrial structure,so it can promote high-quality economic development to a certain extent.On the other hand,capital-biased technological progress is not conducive to the rationalization of industrial structure and the coordinated development of various industries,and will lead to the decline in the proportion of labor remuneration,which requires careful consideration of its role in future economic development.
引文
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[29]Solow,R.M.Technical change and the aggregate production function[J].The Review of Economics and Statistics,1957(3).
[2] Kaldor,N.The Theory of Capital[M].London:Palgrave Macmillan,1961.
[3] Hicks,J.The Theory of Wages[M].London:Macmillan,1963.
[4] Acemoglu,D.Directed technical change[J].Review of Economic Studies,2002(4).
[5] David,P.A.,T.Klundert.Biased efficiency growth and capital-labor substitution in the U.S.,1899—1960[J].American Economic Review,1965(3).
[6] Klump,R.,P.McAdam,A.William.Factor substitution and factor augmenting technical progress in the US:A normalized supply-side system approach[J].The Review of Economics and Statistics,2007(1).
[7] 戴天仕,徐现祥.中国的技术进步方向[J].世界经济,2010(11).
[8] 陈晓玲,连玉君.资本-劳动替代弹性与地区经济增长——德拉格兰德维尔假说的检验[J].经济学(季刊),2013(1).
[9] 姚毓春,袁礼,王林辉.中国工业部门要素收入分配格局——基于技术进步偏向性视角的分析[J].中国工业经济,2014(8).
[10]孔宪丽,米美玲,高铁梅.技术进步适宜性与创新驱动工业结构调整——基于技术进步偏向性视角的实证研究[J].中国工业经济,2015(11).
[11]董直庆,蔡啸,王林辉.技能溢价:基于技术进步方向的解释[J].中国社会科学,2014(10).
[12]王班班,齐绍洲.有偏技术进步、要素替代与中国工业能源强度[J].经济研究,2014(2).
[13]封永刚,蒋雨彤,彭珏.中国经济增长动力分解:有偏技术进步与要素投入增长[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2017(9).
[14]邓明.技术进步偏向与中国地区经济波动[J].经济科学,2015(1).
[15]陈乐一,宾莎莎,杨云.要素偏向型技术进步对我国经济波动的影响[J].社会科学研究,2017(3).
[16]孙学涛,王振华,张广胜.技术进步偏向对产业结构的影响及其溢出效应[J].山西财经大学学报,2017(11).
[17]Leon-Ledesma,M.,P.McAdam,A.William.Identifying the elasticity of substitution with biased techical change[J].American Economic Review,2010(4).
[18]单豪杰.中国资本存量K的再估算:1952—2006年[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2008(10).
[19]Barro,R.J.Economic growth in a cross section of countries[J].The Review of Economics and Statistics,1991(2).
[20]覃一冬.空间集聚与中国省际经济增长的实证分析:1991—2010年[J].金融研究,2013(8).
[21]严成樑,龚六堂.R&D规模、R&D结构与经济增长[J].南开经济研究,2013(2).
[22]Kumbhakar,S.C.,M.Denny,M.Fuss.Estimation and decomposition of productivity change when production is not efficient:A paneldata approach[J].Econometric Reviews,2000(4).
[23]Fuentes,H.J.,E.Grifell-Tatjé,S.Perelman.A parametric distance function approach for Malmquist productivity index estimation[J].Journal of Productivity Analysis,2001(2).
[24]孙早,许薛璐.前沿技术差距与科学研究的创新效应——基础研究与应用研究谁扮演了更重要的角色[J].中国工业经济,2017(3).
[25]Battese,G.E.,T.J.Coelli.A model for technical inefficiency effects in a stochastic frontier production function for panel data[J].Empirical economics,1995(2).
[26]徐敏,姜勇.中国产业结构升级能缩小城乡消费差距吗?[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2015(3).
[27]刘伟,张辉.中国经济增长中的产业结构变迁和技术进步[J].经济研究,2008(11).
[28]于斌斌.产业结构调整与生产率提升的经济增长效应——基于中国城市动态空间面板模型的分析[J].中国工业经济,2015(12).
[29]Solow,R.M.Technical change and the aggregate production function[J].The Review of Economics and Statistics,1957(3).