基于SEIR传染病模型的高碳产业低碳转型动力提升策略

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英文篇名：Promotion Strategy of High-Carbon Industry's Low-Carbon Transformation Power Based on SEIR Model 作者：杨双萍 ; 王玲玲 ; 张济建 英文作者：Yang Shuangping;Wang Lingling;Zhang Jijian;School of Finance and Economics,Jiangsu University; 关键词：SEIR模型 ; 低碳技术扩散 ; 基本再生数 ; 平衡状态 英文关键词：SEIR model;;low-carbon technology diffusion;;basic regeneration number;;equilibrium state 中文刊名：KJGL 英文刊名：Science and Technology Management Research 机构：江苏大学财经学院; 出版日期：2019-06-10 出版单位：科技管理研究 年：2019 期：v.39;No.429 基金：国家自然科学基金项目“‘技术-制度’双重解锁视角下高碳产业低碳转型动力机制及引导策略研究”(71673117);国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目“环保公正视角下区域环保投入机制及联动投入策略研究”(71503105);; 江苏大学科研项目“中国高碳产业低碳转型动力研究”(17C110) 语种：中文; 页：KJGL201911034 页数：8 CN：11 ISSN：44-1223/G3 分类号：268-275

摘要

针对高碳产业低碳转型动力提升策略问题,借用传染病模型的分析思路,构建高碳产业低碳技术扩散SEIR模型;在此基础上采用AnyLogic软件构建高碳产业低碳技术扩散的系统动力学模型并进行系统仿真。仿真结果显示,随着参数的变化,高碳产业低碳技术扩散的平衡点和活跃程度也会发生变化:当高碳产业低碳技术扩散基本再生数大于1时,一旦有新的低碳技术扩散源,低碳技术将在企业之间不断扩散,并最终进入某一个平衡状态;当基本再生数小于1时,无论刚开始有多少企业进行低碳技术传播,系统最终将进入无低碳技术扩散的平衡状态。
        In view of the problem of promotion strategy of high-carbon industry's low-carbon transformation power,this paper uses the epidemic model to analyze the high-carbon industry's low-carbon technology diffusion SEIR model.On this basis,the paper uses the software AnyLogic to construct the system dynamics model of high-carbon industry's low-carbon technology diffusion and carry on the system simulation.The simulation results show that,with the change of parameters,the diffusion equilibrium point and the active degree of high-carbon industry's low-carbon technology diffusion will also change:when the basic regeneration number of high-carbon industry's low-carbon technology diffusion is more than one,low carbon technology will continue to spread among enterprises once there is a new low carbon technology diffusion source and finally enter a certain equilibrium state;when the basic regeneration number is less than one,the system will eventually enter a state of equilibrium without the diffusion of low-carbon technologies no matter how many enterprises begin to spread low-carbon technologies.

引文

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