杠杆率的收入分配效应
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摘要
国际金融危机以来,杠杆率对一国经济金融稳定的重要性受到越来越多的重视,然而鲜有研究探讨杠杆率对收入分配等深层经济社会问题的影响;在收入分配差距日益扩大的当今社会,研究杠杆率对收入分配的影响具有重要的理论和现实意义。在理论机制分析的基础上,本文利用世界银行1981—2015年跨国面板数据以及中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)2012/2014年家户数据,就杠杆率对收入分配的影响进行实证分析。研究发现:杠杆率总体上加剧了收入不平等的程度;杠杆率显著提高了高收入群体的收入份额,同时降低了其他各收入水平群体的收入份额,是杠杆率提高收入不平等程度的直接影响机制;杠杆率还可能对收入分配产生极化效应,表现为同时增加了富裕阶层收入份额和减少了赤贫阶层人口比重,但对中产阶级群体收入产生了较大不利影响;微观机制分析表明,初始收入较高的家庭更容易获得信贷,并通过加杠杆进行金融投资或创业获取更高的收入增长,从而加剧了收入分配不平等程度。本文研究结论为全面认识杠杆率影响和深化收入分配改革提供了一个新视角,对于合理推动中国经济去杠杆具有一定的政策启示。
Since the global financial crisis, more and more attention has been paid to the importance of leverage ratio to the economic and financial stability of an economy. However, few studies have investigated the effect of leverage ratio on income distribution. Based on analysis of the theoretical mechanism, this paper makes an empirical analysis on the effect of leverage ratio on the income distribution, using a cross country panel data in1981—2015 from the World Bank and Chinese household panel data in 2012/2014 from CFPS. The main findings are three folds: First, the overall leverage ratio increases the degree of income inequality; Second, the leverage ratio significantly increases the high income groups' income share, while reducing all other income groups' income share, which is the mechanism how the leverage ratio increases the degree of income inequality; Third, the leverage ratio generates the polarization effect on the distribution of income, as it increases the income share of the wealthy group and reduces the proportion of poverty population, but have the most adverse impact on the income of the middle class. Besides, the paper also investigates the micro-mechanism of how leverage ratio impacts income distribution, and obtains some important findings. The paper provides a new perspective and more comprehensive understanding of leverage ratio and deepens the research on income distribution theory; the study also provides new empirical evidence for mechanism analysis of financial-economic cycle theory.
Since the global financial crisis, more and more attention has been paid to the importance of leverage ratio to the economic and financial stability of an economy. However, few studies have investigated the effect of leverage ratio on income distribution. Based on analysis of the theoretical mechanism, this paper makes an empirical analysis on the effect of leverage ratio on the income distribution, using a cross country panel data in1981—2015 from the World Bank and Chinese household panel data in 2012/2014 from CFPS. The main findings are three folds: First, the overall leverage ratio increases the degree of income inequality; Second, the leverage ratio significantly increases the high income groups' income share, while reducing all other income groups' income share, which is the mechanism how the leverage ratio increases the degree of income inequality; Third, the leverage ratio generates the polarization effect on the distribution of income, as it increases the income share of the wealthy group and reduces the proportion of poverty population, but have the most adverse impact on the income of the middle class. Besides, the paper also investigates the micro-mechanism of how leverage ratio impacts income distribution, and obtains some important findings. The paper provides a new perspective and more comprehensive understanding of leverage ratio and deepens the research on income distribution theory; the study also provides new empirical evidence for mechanism analysis of financial-economic cycle theory.
引文
[1]白重恩,钱震杰.国民收入的要素分配:统计数据背后的故事[J].经济研究,2009,(3):27-41.
[2]蔡萌,岳希明.从马克思到皮凯蒂:收入分配的跨世纪之辩[J].经济学动态,2016,(11):11-21.
[3]陈雨露,马勇,阮卓阳.金融周期和金融波动如何影响经济增长与金融稳定[J].金融研究,2016,(2):1-22.
[4]胡志军,刘宗明,龚志民.中国总体收入基尼系数的估计:1985-2008[J].经济学(季刊),2011,(3):1423-1436.
[5]贾珅,申广军.企业风险与劳动收入份额:来自中国工业部门的证据[J].经济研究,2016,(5):116-129.
[6]李实.中国个人收入分配研究回顾与展望[J].经济学,2003,(2):379-404.
[7]李实,赵人伟.中国居民收入分配再研究[J].经济研究,1999,(4):3-17.
[8]李扬,张晓晶,常欣.中国国家资产负债表[M].北京:中国社会科学出版社,2015.
[9]林岗.从马克思主义视角看收入分配的理论和现实[J].政治经济学评论,2015,(1):216-224.
[10]刘晓光,刘元春,王健.杠杆率、经济增长与衰退[J].中国社会科学,2018,(6):50-70.
[11]鲁晓东,连玉君.中国工业企业全要素生产率估计:1999-2007[J].经济学(季刊),2012,(2):541-558.
[12]马克思.资本论(1867)[M].北京:人民出版社,2004.
[13]马勇,陈雨露.金融杠杆、杠杆波动与经济增长[J].经济研究,2017,(6):31-45.
[14]申广军.“资本-技能互补”假说:理论、验证及其应用[J].经济学(季刊),2016,(3):1653-1682.
[15]万海远,李实.户籍歧视对城乡收入差距的影响[J].经济研究,2013,(9):43-55.
[16]王晓霞,白重恩.劳动收入份额格局及其影响因素研究进展[J].经济学动态,2014,(3):107-115.
[17]吴一平,芮萌.收入分配不平等对刑事犯罪的影响[J].经济学(季刊),2011,(1):296-315.
[18]姚耀军.金融发展、城市化与城乡收入差距---协整分析及其Granger因果检验[J].中国农村观察,2005,(2):2-8.
[19]叶志强,陈习定,张顺明.金融发展能减少城乡收入差距吗?---来自中国的证据[J].金融研究,2011,(2):42-56.
[20]张莉,李捷瑜,徐现祥.国际贸易、偏向型技术进步与要素收入分配[J].经济学(季刊),2012,(2):409-428.
[21]张晓晶,王宇.金融周期与创新宏观调控新维度[J].经济学动态,2016,(7):12-20.
[22]中国人民银行杠杆率研究课题组.中国经济杠杆率水平评估及潜在风险研究[J].金融监管研究,2014,(5):23-38.
[23]周广肃,樊纲,申广军.收入差距、社会资本与健康水平---基于中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)的实证分析[J].管理世界,2014,(7):12-21.
[24]Acemoglu,D.Labor-and Capital-Augmenting Technical Change[J].Journal of the European Economic Association,2003,1(1):1-37.
[25]Alesina,A.,and R.Perotti.Income Distribution,Political Instability,and Investment[J].European Economic Review,1996,40(6):1203-1228.
[26]Arellano,M.,and O.Bover.Another Look at the Instrumental Variable Estimation of Error-components Models[J].Journal of Econometrics,1995,68(1):29-51.
[27]Atolia,M.Trade Liberalization and Rising Wage Inequality in Latin America:Reconciliation with HOS Theory[J].Journal of International Economics,2007,71(2):467-494.
[28]Autor,D.,and D.Dorn.The Growth of Low-Skill Service Jobs and the Polarization of the US Labor Market[J].American Economic Review,2013,103(5):1553-1597.
[29]Barro,R.J.Inequality,Growth,and Investment[R].NBER Working Papers,1999.
[30]Berman,E.,J.Bound,and Z.Griliches.Changes in the Demand for Skilled Labor within U.S.Manufacturing:Evidence from the Annual Survey of Manufactures[R].NBER Working Papers,1993.
[31]Blundell,R.,and S.Bond.Initial Conditions and Moment Restrictions in Dynamic Panel Data Models[J].Journal of Econometrics,1998,(87):115-143.
[32]Borio,C.The Financial Cycle and Macroeconomics:What Have We Learnt[J].Journal of Banking and Finance,2014,(45):182-198.
[33]Card,D.,and J.E.Dinardo.Technology and U.S.Wage Inequality:A Brief Look[M].US:Springer,2003.
[34]Drehmann,M.,C.E.V.Borio,and K.Tsatsaronis.Characterising the Financial Cycle:Don’t Lose Sight of the Medium Term[R].BIS Working Papers,2012.
[35]Galor,O.,and,J.Zeira.Income Distribution and Macroeconomics[J].Review of Economic Studies,1993,60(1):35-52.
[36]Ge,S.,and D.T.Yang.Changes in China’s Wage Structure[J].Journal of the European Economic Association,2014,12(2):300-336.
[37]Giovannoni,O.G.,L.Lu,and D.L.Nguyen.What Do We Know About the Labor Share and the Profit Share?Part II:Empirical Studies[R].Economics Working Paper Archive,2014.
[38]Griliches,Z.Capital-Skill Complementarity[J].Review of Economics&Statistics,1969,51(4):465-468.
[39]Goos,M.,and A.Manning.Lousy and Lovely Jobs:The Rising Polarization of Work in Britain[J].The Review of Economics and Statistics,2007,89(1):118-133.
[40]Goos,M.,A.Manning,and A.Salomons.Explaining Job Polarization:Routine-Biased Technological Change and Offshoring[J].American Economic Review,2014,104(8):2509-2526.
[41]Harrison,A.E.Has Globalization Eroded Labor’s Share?Some Cross-Country Evidence[R].Mpra Paper,2005.
[42]Kaldor,N.Capital Accumulation and Economic Growth[A].Hague,D.C.The Theory of Capital[C].London:Palgrave Macmillan,1961.
[43]Karabarbounis,L.,and B.Neiman.The Global Decline of the Labor Share[R].NBER Working Papers,2014.
[44]Keller,W.,and H.Utar.International Trade and Job Polarization:Evidence at the Worker-level[R].CEPRDiscussion Paper,2016.
[45]Krusell,P.,L.E.Ohanian,and J.V.Ríos-Rull.Capital-skill Complementarity and Inequality:AMacroeconomic Analysis[J].Econometrica,2000,68(5):1029-1053.
[46]Kuznets,S.Economic Growth and Income Equality[J].American Economic Review,1955,45(1):1-28.
[47]Maddison,A.The World Economy:A Millennial Perspective[J].Foreign Affairs,2001,(17):69-78.
[48]Michaels,G.,A.Natraj,and J.Van Reenen.Has ICT Polarized Skill Demand?Evidence from Eleven Countries over Twenty-Five Years[J].The Review of Economics and Statistics,2014,96(1):60-77.
[49]Park,A.,and K.Sehrt.Tests of Financial Intermediation and Banking Reform in China[J].Journal of Comparative Economics,2001,29(4):608-644.
[50]Piketty T.Putting Distribution Back at the Center of Economics:Reflections on Capital in the Twenty-First Century[J].Journal of Economic Perspectives,2015a,29(1):67-88.
[51]Piketty T.About Capital in the Twenty-First Century[J].American Economic Review,2015b,105(5):48-53.
[52]Stockhammer,E.Why Have Wage Shares Fallen?An Analysis of the Determinants of Functional Income Distribution[M].Palgrave Macmillan UK,2013.
[53]World Inequality Lab.World Inequality Report[R].2018.
[54]Yang,D.T.Urban-Biased Policies and Rising Income Inequality in China[J].American Economic Review:Papers and Proceedings,1999,89(2):306-310.
(1)Thomas Piketty等人领衔的World Inequality Lab发布的《世界不平等报告2018》(World Inequality Report2018)指出,1980—2016年几乎全球所有国家的居民收入差距都在以不同的速度拉大。
(1)研究表明,经济周期的跨度一般是1—8年,而金融周期的跨度则可能达到16年,特别是随着金融自由化和全球化的发展,金融周期的长度平均达到20年(Drehmann et al.,2012;张晓晶和王宇,2016)。
(2)改革开放近40年来,随着中国居民收入水平的不断提高,收入分配格局却呈现不断恶化的趋势:基尼系数从改革之初的不足0.3,上升到2000年突破0.4的国际警戒线,再到2008年达到历史最高点0.491,居民收入差距呈现持续扩大的趋势。部分学者对中国收入不平等程度的估计结果还更高。例如,根据西南财经大学中国家庭金融调研中心统计报告,2010年中国家庭的基尼系数已经超过0.6,步入收入差距悬殊的国家行列。
(1)感谢审稿专家指出房地产增值的潜在影响,富人比穷人更容易获得信贷买房,从而在新一轮房地产升值中获得财富的升值,加剧财富和收入分配差距。房地产增值或者类房地产的资产增值对收入分配的影响,是现实中杠杆率影响收入分配的一个具体作用渠道,即图2里面的第3点,由于存在金融资源的有偏性,富人比穷人更容易获得信贷资源,更容易从资产增值中获益,从而拉大了财富及收入分配差距。
(2)此外,杠杆率的收入分配效应还可能是金融周期作用于经济周期的重要一环。陈雨露等(2016)研究发现,在金融高涨期,经济增长率较低,同时容易爆发金融危机,而在金融正常期,经济增长率更高,同时金融体系的稳定性也更强。如果本文研究假说成立,一种可能的解释就在于,杠杆率变动导致的收入分配恶化效应对经济增长和稳定产生了不利影响,因而在理论上就有可能找到调节金融经济周期的一个重要抓手。当然,这就是另一个话题了,需要专门研究和论证。
(1)详细分析说明可在《中国工业经济》网站(http://www.ciejournal.org)下载。
[2]蔡萌,岳希明.从马克思到皮凯蒂:收入分配的跨世纪之辩[J].经济学动态,2016,(11):11-21.
[3]陈雨露,马勇,阮卓阳.金融周期和金融波动如何影响经济增长与金融稳定[J].金融研究,2016,(2):1-22.
[4]胡志军,刘宗明,龚志民.中国总体收入基尼系数的估计:1985-2008[J].经济学(季刊),2011,(3):1423-1436.
[5]贾珅,申广军.企业风险与劳动收入份额:来自中国工业部门的证据[J].经济研究,2016,(5):116-129.
[6]李实.中国个人收入分配研究回顾与展望[J].经济学,2003,(2):379-404.
[7]李实,赵人伟.中国居民收入分配再研究[J].经济研究,1999,(4):3-17.
[8]李扬,张晓晶,常欣.中国国家资产负债表[M].北京:中国社会科学出版社,2015.
[9]林岗.从马克思主义视角看收入分配的理论和现实[J].政治经济学评论,2015,(1):216-224.
[10]刘晓光,刘元春,王健.杠杆率、经济增长与衰退[J].中国社会科学,2018,(6):50-70.
[11]鲁晓东,连玉君.中国工业企业全要素生产率估计:1999-2007[J].经济学(季刊),2012,(2):541-558.
[12]马克思.资本论(1867)[M].北京:人民出版社,2004.
[13]马勇,陈雨露.金融杠杆、杠杆波动与经济增长[J].经济研究,2017,(6):31-45.
[14]申广军.“资本-技能互补”假说:理论、验证及其应用[J].经济学(季刊),2016,(3):1653-1682.
[15]万海远,李实.户籍歧视对城乡收入差距的影响[J].经济研究,2013,(9):43-55.
[16]王晓霞,白重恩.劳动收入份额格局及其影响因素研究进展[J].经济学动态,2014,(3):107-115.
[17]吴一平,芮萌.收入分配不平等对刑事犯罪的影响[J].经济学(季刊),2011,(1):296-315.
[18]姚耀军.金融发展、城市化与城乡收入差距---协整分析及其Granger因果检验[J].中国农村观察,2005,(2):2-8.
[19]叶志强,陈习定,张顺明.金融发展能减少城乡收入差距吗?---来自中国的证据[J].金融研究,2011,(2):42-56.
[20]张莉,李捷瑜,徐现祥.国际贸易、偏向型技术进步与要素收入分配[J].经济学(季刊),2012,(2):409-428.
[21]张晓晶,王宇.金融周期与创新宏观调控新维度[J].经济学动态,2016,(7):12-20.
[22]中国人民银行杠杆率研究课题组.中国经济杠杆率水平评估及潜在风险研究[J].金融监管研究,2014,(5):23-38.
[23]周广肃,樊纲,申广军.收入差距、社会资本与健康水平---基于中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)的实证分析[J].管理世界,2014,(7):12-21.
[24]Acemoglu,D.Labor-and Capital-Augmenting Technical Change[J].Journal of the European Economic Association,2003,1(1):1-37.
[25]Alesina,A.,and R.Perotti.Income Distribution,Political Instability,and Investment[J].European Economic Review,1996,40(6):1203-1228.
[26]Arellano,M.,and O.Bover.Another Look at the Instrumental Variable Estimation of Error-components Models[J].Journal of Econometrics,1995,68(1):29-51.
[27]Atolia,M.Trade Liberalization and Rising Wage Inequality in Latin America:Reconciliation with HOS Theory[J].Journal of International Economics,2007,71(2):467-494.
[28]Autor,D.,and D.Dorn.The Growth of Low-Skill Service Jobs and the Polarization of the US Labor Market[J].American Economic Review,2013,103(5):1553-1597.
[29]Barro,R.J.Inequality,Growth,and Investment[R].NBER Working Papers,1999.
[30]Berman,E.,J.Bound,and Z.Griliches.Changes in the Demand for Skilled Labor within U.S.Manufacturing:Evidence from the Annual Survey of Manufactures[R].NBER Working Papers,1993.
[31]Blundell,R.,and S.Bond.Initial Conditions and Moment Restrictions in Dynamic Panel Data Models[J].Journal of Econometrics,1998,(87):115-143.
[32]Borio,C.The Financial Cycle and Macroeconomics:What Have We Learnt[J].Journal of Banking and Finance,2014,(45):182-198.
[33]Card,D.,and J.E.Dinardo.Technology and U.S.Wage Inequality:A Brief Look[M].US:Springer,2003.
[34]Drehmann,M.,C.E.V.Borio,and K.Tsatsaronis.Characterising the Financial Cycle:Don’t Lose Sight of the Medium Term[R].BIS Working Papers,2012.
[35]Galor,O.,and,J.Zeira.Income Distribution and Macroeconomics[J].Review of Economic Studies,1993,60(1):35-52.
[36]Ge,S.,and D.T.Yang.Changes in China’s Wage Structure[J].Journal of the European Economic Association,2014,12(2):300-336.
[37]Giovannoni,O.G.,L.Lu,and D.L.Nguyen.What Do We Know About the Labor Share and the Profit Share?Part II:Empirical Studies[R].Economics Working Paper Archive,2014.
[38]Griliches,Z.Capital-Skill Complementarity[J].Review of Economics&Statistics,1969,51(4):465-468.
[39]Goos,M.,and A.Manning.Lousy and Lovely Jobs:The Rising Polarization of Work in Britain[J].The Review of Economics and Statistics,2007,89(1):118-133.
[40]Goos,M.,A.Manning,and A.Salomons.Explaining Job Polarization:Routine-Biased Technological Change and Offshoring[J].American Economic Review,2014,104(8):2509-2526.
[41]Harrison,A.E.Has Globalization Eroded Labor’s Share?Some Cross-Country Evidence[R].Mpra Paper,2005.
[42]Kaldor,N.Capital Accumulation and Economic Growth[A].Hague,D.C.The Theory of Capital[C].London:Palgrave Macmillan,1961.
[43]Karabarbounis,L.,and B.Neiman.The Global Decline of the Labor Share[R].NBER Working Papers,2014.
[44]Keller,W.,and H.Utar.International Trade and Job Polarization:Evidence at the Worker-level[R].CEPRDiscussion Paper,2016.
[45]Krusell,P.,L.E.Ohanian,and J.V.Ríos-Rull.Capital-skill Complementarity and Inequality:AMacroeconomic Analysis[J].Econometrica,2000,68(5):1029-1053.
[46]Kuznets,S.Economic Growth and Income Equality[J].American Economic Review,1955,45(1):1-28.
[47]Maddison,A.The World Economy:A Millennial Perspective[J].Foreign Affairs,2001,(17):69-78.
[48]Michaels,G.,A.Natraj,and J.Van Reenen.Has ICT Polarized Skill Demand?Evidence from Eleven Countries over Twenty-Five Years[J].The Review of Economics and Statistics,2014,96(1):60-77.
[49]Park,A.,and K.Sehrt.Tests of Financial Intermediation and Banking Reform in China[J].Journal of Comparative Economics,2001,29(4):608-644.
[50]Piketty T.Putting Distribution Back at the Center of Economics:Reflections on Capital in the Twenty-First Century[J].Journal of Economic Perspectives,2015a,29(1):67-88.
[51]Piketty T.About Capital in the Twenty-First Century[J].American Economic Review,2015b,105(5):48-53.
[52]Stockhammer,E.Why Have Wage Shares Fallen?An Analysis of the Determinants of Functional Income Distribution[M].Palgrave Macmillan UK,2013.
[53]World Inequality Lab.World Inequality Report[R].2018.
[54]Yang,D.T.Urban-Biased Policies and Rising Income Inequality in China[J].American Economic Review:Papers and Proceedings,1999,89(2):306-310.
(1)Thomas Piketty等人领衔的World Inequality Lab发布的《世界不平等报告2018》(World Inequality Report2018)指出,1980—2016年几乎全球所有国家的居民收入差距都在以不同的速度拉大。
(1)研究表明,经济周期的跨度一般是1—8年,而金融周期的跨度则可能达到16年,特别是随着金融自由化和全球化的发展,金融周期的长度平均达到20年(Drehmann et al.,2012;张晓晶和王宇,2016)。
(2)改革开放近40年来,随着中国居民收入水平的不断提高,收入分配格局却呈现不断恶化的趋势:基尼系数从改革之初的不足0.3,上升到2000年突破0.4的国际警戒线,再到2008年达到历史最高点0.491,居民收入差距呈现持续扩大的趋势。部分学者对中国收入不平等程度的估计结果还更高。例如,根据西南财经大学中国家庭金融调研中心统计报告,2010年中国家庭的基尼系数已经超过0.6,步入收入差距悬殊的国家行列。
(1)感谢审稿专家指出房地产增值的潜在影响,富人比穷人更容易获得信贷买房,从而在新一轮房地产升值中获得财富的升值,加剧财富和收入分配差距。房地产增值或者类房地产的资产增值对收入分配的影响,是现实中杠杆率影响收入分配的一个具体作用渠道,即图2里面的第3点,由于存在金融资源的有偏性,富人比穷人更容易获得信贷资源,更容易从资产增值中获益,从而拉大了财富及收入分配差距。
(2)此外,杠杆率的收入分配效应还可能是金融周期作用于经济周期的重要一环。陈雨露等(2016)研究发现,在金融高涨期,经济增长率较低,同时容易爆发金融危机,而在金融正常期,经济增长率更高,同时金融体系的稳定性也更强。如果本文研究假说成立,一种可能的解释就在于,杠杆率变动导致的收入分配恶化效应对经济增长和稳定产生了不利影响,因而在理论上就有可能找到调节金融经济周期的一个重要抓手。当然,这就是另一个话题了,需要专门研究和论证。
(1)详细分析说明可在《中国工业经济》网站(http://www.ciejournal.org)下载。