导致2018年夏季东北亚极端高温的中高纬环流异常分析（英文）
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摘要
2018年东北亚经历了过去40年以来最热的夏季(7–8月),其夏季平均的地表气温异常(1.2°C)几乎达到该地区气温年际标准差的2倍。本文指出此次极端高温与东北亚上空深厚的位势高度正异常有关,在分析时段内(1979–2018年)其强度在2018年最强。回归分析结果表明,北欧和里海的高层环流异常都可以通过激发下游波列对东北亚上空的环流产生重要影响。特别的是,2018年夏季北欧和里海的位势高度均显著增强,且均遭遇了极端高温的侵袭,位势高度正异常和高温异常也在分析时段内达到最强,因而通过波列共同促成了东北亚极端的位势高度正异常和高温。本文研究结果说明,为全面了解东北亚地区的温度变率,对中高纬的两种遥相关型特别是其波源的理解至关重要,值得进一步研究。
This study investigated the contributions of mid–high-latitude circulation anomalies to the extremely hot summer(July and August; JA) of 2018 over Northeast Asia(NEA). The JA-mean surface air temperature in 2018 was 1.2°C higher than that of the 1979–2018 climatology, with the amplitude of such an anomaly almost doubling the interannual standard deviation, making 2018 the hottest year during the analysis period 1979–2018. The abnormal warming over NEA was caused by a local positive geopotential height anomaly reaching strongest intensity in JA 2018. Further investigation suggested that the upper-tropospheric circulation anomalies over northern Europe and the Caspian Sea were crucial to forming this NEA circulation anomaly through initiating downstream wave trains. Particularly, the geopotential heights over these two regions were concurrently at their highest in JA 2018, and therefore jointly contributed to the profound circulation anomaly over NEA and the hottest summer on record. Due to these two teleconnection patterns, the temperature anomalies in NEA are closely related to those in both northern Europe and the Caspian Sea, where the similarly extreme warming also happened in 2018.
This study investigated the contributions of mid–high-latitude circulation anomalies to the extremely hot summer(July and August; JA) of 2018 over Northeast Asia(NEA). The JA-mean surface air temperature in 2018 was 1.2°C higher than that of the 1979–2018 climatology, with the amplitude of such an anomaly almost doubling the interannual standard deviation, making 2018 the hottest year during the analysis period 1979–2018. The abnormal warming over NEA was caused by a local positive geopotential height anomaly reaching strongest intensity in JA 2018. Further investigation suggested that the upper-tropospheric circulation anomalies over northern Europe and the Caspian Sea were crucial to forming this NEA circulation anomaly through initiating downstream wave trains. Particularly, the geopotential heights over these two regions were concurrently at their highest in JA 2018, and therefore jointly contributed to the profound circulation anomaly over NEA and the hottest summer on record. Due to these two teleconnection patterns, the temperature anomalies in NEA are closely related to those in both northern Europe and the Caspian Sea, where the similarly extreme warming also happened in 2018.
引文
Chen,R.,and R.Lu.2015.“Comparisons of the Circulation Anomalies Associated with Extreme Heat in Different Regions of Eastern China.”Journal of Climate 28(14)5830-5844.doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00818.1.
Chen,W.,X.Hong,R.Lu,A.Jin,S.Jin,J.-C.Nam,J.-H.Shin,T.-Y.Goo,and B.-J.Kim.2016.“Variation in Summer Surface Air Temperature over Northeast Asia and Its Associated Circulation Anomalies.”Advances in Atmospheric Sciences33(1):1-9.doi:10.1007/s00376-015-5056-0.
Chen,W.,and R.Lu.2014a.“A Decadal Shift of Summer Surface Air Temperature over Northeast Asia around the Mid-1990s.”Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 31(4)735-742.doi:10.1007/s00376-013-3154-4.
Chen,W.,and R.Lu.2014b.“The Interannual Variation in Monthly Temperature over Northeast China during Summer.”Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 31(3)515-524.doi:10.1007/s00376-013-3102-3.
Choi,G.,D.Collins,G.Ren,B.Trewin,M.Baldi,Y.Fukuda M.Afzaal,et al.2009.“Changes in Means and Extreme Events of Temperature and Precipitation in the AsiaPacific Network Region,1955-2007.”International Journa of Climatology 29(13):1906-1925.doi:10.1002/joc.1979.
Cui,J.,J.Li,A.Z.Zhang,and Q.Yan.2007.“Advances in Studies of Summer Low Temperature in Northeast China.”Meteorological Monthly 33(4):3-9.in Chinese.
Ding,Q.,and B.Wang.2005.“Circumglobal Teleconnection in the Northern Hemisphere Summer.”Journal of Climate 18(17):3483-3505.doi:10.1175/JCLI3473.1.
Dong,B.,R.T.Sutton,W.Chen,X.Liu,R.Lu,and Y.Sun.2016“Abrupt Summer Warming and Changes in Temperature Extremes over Northeast Asia since the Mid-1990s:Drivers and Physical Processes.”Advances in Atmospheric Sciences33(9):1005-1023.doi:10.1007/s00376-016-5247-3.
Enomoto,T.,B.J.Hoskins,and Y.Matsuda.2003.“The Formation Mechanism of the Bonin High in August.”Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 129(587):157-178.doi:10.1256/gj.01.211.
Gao,Z.,-Z.-Z.Hu,B.Jha,S.Yang,J.Zhu,B.Shen,and R.Zhang2014.“Variability and Predictability of Northeast China Climate during 1948-2012.”Climate Dynamics 43(3-4)787-804.doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1944-0.
Gong,D.-Y.,Y.-Z.Pan,and J.-A.Wang.2004.“Changes in Extreme Daily Mean Temperatures in Summer in Eastern China during 1955-2000.”Theoretical and Applied Climatology 77(1-2):25-37.doi:10.1007/s00704-003-0019-2.
Gu,S.N.,and X.Q.Yang.2006.“Variability of the Northern Circumpolar Vortex and Its Association with Climate Anomaly in China.”Scientia Meteorologica Sinica 26(2)135-142.in Chinese.
Ham,Y.-G.,and H.-Y.Na.2017.“Marginal Sea Surface Temperature Variation as a Pre-Cursor of Heat Waves over the Korean Peninsula.”Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 53(4):445-455.doi:10.1007/s13143-017-0047-y.
Hong,X.,and R.Lu.2016.“The Meridional Displacement of the Summer Asian Jet,Silk Road Pattern,and Tropical SSTAnomalies.”Journal of Climate 29(10):3753-3766doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0541.1.
Hong,X.,R.Lu,and S.Li.2017.“Amplified Summer Warming in Europe-West Asia and Northeast Asia after the Mid-1990s.”Environmental Research Letters 12(9):094007doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa7909.
Imada,Y.,H.Shiogama,M.Watanabe,M.Mori,M.Ishii,and M.Kimoto.2014.“The Contribution of Anthropogenic Forcing to the Japanese Heat Waves of 2013.”Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 95(9):S52-S54.
Kalnay,E.,M.Kanamitsu,R.Kistler,W.Collins,D.Deaven L.Gandin,M.Iredell,et al.1996.“The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project.”Bulletin of the American Meteorologica Society 77(3):437-471.doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077<0437:TNYRP>2.0.CO;2.
Lee,W.-S.,and M.-I.Lee.2016.“Interannual Variability of Heat Waves in South Korea and Their Connection with Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation Patterns.”International Journal of Climatology 36(15):4815-4830doi:10.1002/joc.4671.
Li,J.,and C.Ruan.2018.“The North Atlantic-Eurasian Teleconnection in Summer and Its Effects on Eurasian Climates.”Environmental Research Letters 13(2):024007doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa9d33.
Lu,R.-Y.,and R.-D.Chen.2016.“A Review of Recent Studies on Extreme Heat in China.”Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 9(2):114-121.doi:10.1080/16742834.2016.1133071
Lu,R.-Y.,J.-H.Oh,and B.-J.Kim.2002.“A Teleconnection Pattern in Upper-Level Meridional Wind over the North African and Eurasian Continent in Summer.”Tellus 54(1)44-55.doi:10.1034/j.1600-0870.2002.00248.x.
Park,C.-K.,and S.D.Schubert.1997.“On the Nature of the1994 East Asian Summer Drought.”Journal of Climate 10(5):1056-1070.doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1997)010<1056OTNOTE>2.0.CO;2.
Sato,N.,and M.Takahashi.2006.“Dynamical Processes Related to the Appearance of Quasi-Stationary Waves on the Subtropical Jet in the Midsummer Northern Hemisphere.”Journal of Climate 19(8):1531-1544doi:10.1175/JCLI3697.1.
Sato,N.,and M.Takahashi.2007.“Dynamical Processes Related to the Appearance of the Okhotsk High during Early Midsummer.”Journal of Climate 20(19):4982-4994doi:10.1175/JCLI4285.1.
Schaefer,D.,and M.Domroes.2009.“Recent Climate Change in Japan-Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of Trends of Temperature.”Climate of the Past 5(1):13-19.doi:10.5194/cp-5-13-2009.
Takaya,K.,and H.Nakamura.2001.“A Formulation of APhase-Independent Wave-Activity Flux for Stationary and Migratory Quasigeostrophic Eddies on A Zonally Varying Basic Flow.”Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences58(6):608-627.doi:10.1175/1520-0469(2001)058<0608AFOAPI>2.0.CO;2.
Wei,K.,and W.Chen.2011.“An Abrupt Increase in the Summer High Temperature Extreme Days across China in the Mid-1990s.”Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 28(5)1023-1029.doi:10.1007/s00376-010-0080-6.
Yeh,S.-W.,Y.-J.Won,J.-S.Hong,K.-J.Lee,M.Kwon,K.-H.Seo and Y.-G.Ham.2018.“The Record-Breaking Heat Wave in2016 over South Korea and Its Physical Mechanism.”Monthly Weather Review 146(5):1463-1474.doi:10.1175/MWR-D-17-0205.1.
Zhu,C.,B.Wang,W.Qian,and B.Zhang.2012.“Recent Weakening of Northern East Asian Summer Monsoon A Possible Response to Global Warming.”Geophysica Research Letters 39:L09701.doi:10.1029/2012GL051155.
Zhuang,Y.,J.Zhang,Y.Wang,and L.Wu.2018.“Variability of Warm Season Surface Air Temperature over Northeastern China and Its Relationships with Sea Surface Temperature and Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation Pattern.”Climatic and Environmental Research 23(4):479-492.doi:10.3878/jissn.1006-9585.2018.17085.in Chinese.
Chen,W.,X.Hong,R.Lu,A.Jin,S.Jin,J.-C.Nam,J.-H.Shin,T.-Y.Goo,and B.-J.Kim.2016.“Variation in Summer Surface Air Temperature over Northeast Asia and Its Associated Circulation Anomalies.”Advances in Atmospheric Sciences33(1):1-9.doi:10.1007/s00376-015-5056-0.
Chen,W.,and R.Lu.2014a.“A Decadal Shift of Summer Surface Air Temperature over Northeast Asia around the Mid-1990s.”Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 31(4)735-742.doi:10.1007/s00376-013-3154-4.
Chen,W.,and R.Lu.2014b.“The Interannual Variation in Monthly Temperature over Northeast China during Summer.”Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 31(3)515-524.doi:10.1007/s00376-013-3102-3.
Choi,G.,D.Collins,G.Ren,B.Trewin,M.Baldi,Y.Fukuda M.Afzaal,et al.2009.“Changes in Means and Extreme Events of Temperature and Precipitation in the AsiaPacific Network Region,1955-2007.”International Journa of Climatology 29(13):1906-1925.doi:10.1002/joc.1979.
Cui,J.,J.Li,A.Z.Zhang,and Q.Yan.2007.“Advances in Studies of Summer Low Temperature in Northeast China.”Meteorological Monthly 33(4):3-9.in Chinese.
Ding,Q.,and B.Wang.2005.“Circumglobal Teleconnection in the Northern Hemisphere Summer.”Journal of Climate 18(17):3483-3505.doi:10.1175/JCLI3473.1.
Dong,B.,R.T.Sutton,W.Chen,X.Liu,R.Lu,and Y.Sun.2016“Abrupt Summer Warming and Changes in Temperature Extremes over Northeast Asia since the Mid-1990s:Drivers and Physical Processes.”Advances in Atmospheric Sciences33(9):1005-1023.doi:10.1007/s00376-016-5247-3.
Enomoto,T.,B.J.Hoskins,and Y.Matsuda.2003.“The Formation Mechanism of the Bonin High in August.”Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 129(587):157-178.doi:10.1256/gj.01.211.
Gao,Z.,-Z.-Z.Hu,B.Jha,S.Yang,J.Zhu,B.Shen,and R.Zhang2014.“Variability and Predictability of Northeast China Climate during 1948-2012.”Climate Dynamics 43(3-4)787-804.doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1944-0.
Gong,D.-Y.,Y.-Z.Pan,and J.-A.Wang.2004.“Changes in Extreme Daily Mean Temperatures in Summer in Eastern China during 1955-2000.”Theoretical and Applied Climatology 77(1-2):25-37.doi:10.1007/s00704-003-0019-2.
Gu,S.N.,and X.Q.Yang.2006.“Variability of the Northern Circumpolar Vortex and Its Association with Climate Anomaly in China.”Scientia Meteorologica Sinica 26(2)135-142.in Chinese.
Ham,Y.-G.,and H.-Y.Na.2017.“Marginal Sea Surface Temperature Variation as a Pre-Cursor of Heat Waves over the Korean Peninsula.”Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 53(4):445-455.doi:10.1007/s13143-017-0047-y.
Hong,X.,and R.Lu.2016.“The Meridional Displacement of the Summer Asian Jet,Silk Road Pattern,and Tropical SSTAnomalies.”Journal of Climate 29(10):3753-3766doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0541.1.
Hong,X.,R.Lu,and S.Li.2017.“Amplified Summer Warming in Europe-West Asia and Northeast Asia after the Mid-1990s.”Environmental Research Letters 12(9):094007doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa7909.
Imada,Y.,H.Shiogama,M.Watanabe,M.Mori,M.Ishii,and M.Kimoto.2014.“The Contribution of Anthropogenic Forcing to the Japanese Heat Waves of 2013.”Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 95(9):S52-S54.
Kalnay,E.,M.Kanamitsu,R.Kistler,W.Collins,D.Deaven L.Gandin,M.Iredell,et al.1996.“The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project.”Bulletin of the American Meteorologica Society 77(3):437-471.doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077<0437:TNYRP>2.0.CO;2.
Lee,W.-S.,and M.-I.Lee.2016.“Interannual Variability of Heat Waves in South Korea and Their Connection with Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation Patterns.”International Journal of Climatology 36(15):4815-4830doi:10.1002/joc.4671.
Li,J.,and C.Ruan.2018.“The North Atlantic-Eurasian Teleconnection in Summer and Its Effects on Eurasian Climates.”Environmental Research Letters 13(2):024007doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa9d33.
Lu,R.-Y.,and R.-D.Chen.2016.“A Review of Recent Studies on Extreme Heat in China.”Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 9(2):114-121.doi:10.1080/16742834.2016.1133071
Lu,R.-Y.,J.-H.Oh,and B.-J.Kim.2002.“A Teleconnection Pattern in Upper-Level Meridional Wind over the North African and Eurasian Continent in Summer.”Tellus 54(1)44-55.doi:10.1034/j.1600-0870.2002.00248.x.
Park,C.-K.,and S.D.Schubert.1997.“On the Nature of the1994 East Asian Summer Drought.”Journal of Climate 10(5):1056-1070.doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1997)010<1056OTNOTE>2.0.CO;2.
Sato,N.,and M.Takahashi.2006.“Dynamical Processes Related to the Appearance of Quasi-Stationary Waves on the Subtropical Jet in the Midsummer Northern Hemisphere.”Journal of Climate 19(8):1531-1544doi:10.1175/JCLI3697.1.
Sato,N.,and M.Takahashi.2007.“Dynamical Processes Related to the Appearance of the Okhotsk High during Early Midsummer.”Journal of Climate 20(19):4982-4994doi:10.1175/JCLI4285.1.
Schaefer,D.,and M.Domroes.2009.“Recent Climate Change in Japan-Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of Trends of Temperature.”Climate of the Past 5(1):13-19.doi:10.5194/cp-5-13-2009.
Takaya,K.,and H.Nakamura.2001.“A Formulation of APhase-Independent Wave-Activity Flux for Stationary and Migratory Quasigeostrophic Eddies on A Zonally Varying Basic Flow.”Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences58(6):608-627.doi:10.1175/1520-0469(2001)058<0608AFOAPI>2.0.CO;2.
Wei,K.,and W.Chen.2011.“An Abrupt Increase in the Summer High Temperature Extreme Days across China in the Mid-1990s.”Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 28(5)1023-1029.doi:10.1007/s00376-010-0080-6.
Yeh,S.-W.,Y.-J.Won,J.-S.Hong,K.-J.Lee,M.Kwon,K.-H.Seo and Y.-G.Ham.2018.“The Record-Breaking Heat Wave in2016 over South Korea and Its Physical Mechanism.”Monthly Weather Review 146(5):1463-1474.doi:10.1175/MWR-D-17-0205.1.
Zhu,C.,B.Wang,W.Qian,and B.Zhang.2012.“Recent Weakening of Northern East Asian Summer Monsoon A Possible Response to Global Warming.”Geophysica Research Letters 39:L09701.doi:10.1029/2012GL051155.
Zhuang,Y.,J.Zhang,Y.Wang,and L.Wu.2018.“Variability of Warm Season Surface Air Temperature over Northeastern China and Its Relationships with Sea Surface Temperature and Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation Pattern.”Climatic and Environmental Research 23(4):479-492.doi:10.3878/jissn.1006-9585.2018.17085.in Chinese.