中国中小尺度强对流天气气候学特征
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摘要
中小尺度强对流天气具有极强的破坏力,了解其气候学特征对于预测、预报和影响评价都具有实际意义。利用1961～2015年的2332个高密度逐月国家级气象站观测资料,分析了中国大陆3种常见中小尺度强对流天气(雷暴、闪电、冰雹)在年、季、月尺度上发生日数的时间变化规律和空间分布特征。结果表明:全国年平均雷暴、闪电和冰雹发生频率分别为39.23 d/a、20.56 d/a和1.07 d/a;雷暴和闪电主要发生在夏季3个月,雷暴日数7月最多,闪电日数8月最多;冰雹主要发生每年5～9月,6月发生频率最高;雷暴和闪电的高发区分布基本一致,主要集中在华南和西南,青藏高原也是雷暴的高发区域之一;冰雹的高发区主要集中在青藏高原、内蒙古高原东部以及中西部山地,而东南沿海地区发生频率则较低。进一步分析发现,我国雷暴和冰雹出现频率随海拔高度增加而明显增加,冰雹和海拔高度有更好的对应关系,二者增加速率分别为2.87 d/500 m和1.80 d/500 m,表明地势高度对这两种强对流天气形成和发展具有重要影响。
Meso-scale and micro-scale strong convective weather events usually contain a great destructive power.Understanding climatological characteristics of strong convective weather events is of great importance for forecast,prediction and impact assessment of convective weather. In this paper, a newly developed dataset of meso-scale and micro-scale strong convective weather events in China that includes observations at 2332 national weather stations for the period of 1961–2015 is used to reanalyze the climatological characteristics of strong convective weather events(thunderstorms, lightnings, hails) on annual, seasonal, and monthly scales in China. The results show that the occurrence frequencies of thunderstorm, lightning, and hail are 39.23 d/a, 20.56 d/a, and 1.07 d/a, respectively. Thunderstorms and lightnings mainly occur in the summer, while most of the thunderstorms occur in July and most of lightnings occur in August. Hails mainly occurr between May and September, and the highest frequency occurs in June. Areas with high frequency of thunderstorms are similar to those with high frequency of lightnings, which are mainly located in southern and southwestern China and the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. The occurrence frequency of hail is closely related to topography,and areas with high frequency of hail are mainly distributed in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, the eastern part of Inner Mongolia and the mountainous areas of central and western China, while the southeastern coastal areas have lower frequency than other areas. In addition, hail and thunderstorm increase significantly with elevation, especially hail, and the increase rates are 2.87 d/500 m and 1.80 d/500 m, respectively. It is found that elevation has important influences on the formation and development of these two types of strong convective weather.
Meso-scale and micro-scale strong convective weather events usually contain a great destructive power.Understanding climatological characteristics of strong convective weather events is of great importance for forecast,prediction and impact assessment of convective weather. In this paper, a newly developed dataset of meso-scale and micro-scale strong convective weather events in China that includes observations at 2332 national weather stations for the period of 1961–2015 is used to reanalyze the climatological characteristics of strong convective weather events(thunderstorms, lightnings, hails) on annual, seasonal, and monthly scales in China. The results show that the occurrence frequencies of thunderstorm, lightning, and hail are 39.23 d/a, 20.56 d/a, and 1.07 d/a, respectively. Thunderstorms and lightnings mainly occur in the summer, while most of the thunderstorms occur in July and most of lightnings occur in August. Hails mainly occurr between May and September, and the highest frequency occurs in June. Areas with high frequency of thunderstorms are similar to those with high frequency of lightnings, which are mainly located in southern and southwestern China and the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. The occurrence frequency of hail is closely related to topography,and areas with high frequency of hail are mainly distributed in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, the eastern part of Inner Mongolia and the mountainous areas of central and western China, while the southeastern coastal areas have lower frequency than other areas. In addition, hail and thunderstorm increase significantly with elevation, especially hail, and the increase rates are 2.87 d/500 m and 1.80 d/500 m, respectively. It is found that elevation has important influences on the formation and development of these two types of strong convective weather.
引文
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陈思宇,黄建平,付强,等.2012.气溶胶对我国中东部地区秋季降水的影响[J].热带气象学报,28(3):339-347.Chen Siyu,Huang Jianping,Fu Qiang,et al.2012.Effects of aerosols on autumn precipitation over mid-eastern China[J].Journal of Tropical Meteorology(in Chinese),28(3):339-347,doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-4965.2012.03.006.
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符琳,李维京,张培群,等.2011.近50年我国冰雹年代际变化及北方冰雹趋势的成因分析[J].气象,37(6):669-676.Fu Lin,Li Weijing,Zhang Peiqun,et al.2011.Inter-decadal change of hail events over China and causation analysis in northern China in recent 50 years[J].Meteorological Monthly(in Chinese),37(6):669-676,doi:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2011.6.003.
黄武斌,王研峰,黄玉霞,等.2016.1974~2013年甘肃省冰雹气候时空变化特征[J].气象与环境学报,32(1):103-107.Huang Wubin,Wang Yanfeng,Huang Yuxia,et al.2016.Spatial and temporal climatic characteristics of hail from 1974 to 2013 in Gansu Province[J].Journal of Meteorology and Environment(in Chinese),32(1):103-107,doi:10.11927/j.issn.1673-503X.2016.01.015.
李韬光,张红雨,柳琼,等.2015.1981~2013年山西地区冰雹气候特征分析[J].气象与环境学报,31(5):165-170.Li Taoguang,Zhang Hongyu,Liu Qiong,et al.2015.Climate characteristics of hail in Shanxi Province from 1981 to 2013[J].Journal of Meteorology and Environment(in Chinese),31(5):165-170.
李照荣,康凤琴,马胜萍.2005.西北地区雷暴气候特征分析[J].灾害学,20(2):83-88.Li Zhaorong,Kang Fengqin,Ma Shengping.2005.Analysis on climatic characteristics of thunderstorm in Northwest China[J].Journal of Catastrophology(in Chinese),20(2):83-88,doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2005.02.018.
郄秀书,刘冬霞,孙竹玲.2014.闪电气象学研究进展[J].气象学报,72(5):1054-1068.Qie Xiushu,Liu Dongxia,Sun Zhuling.2014.Recent advances in research of lightning meteorology[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica(in Chinese),72(5):1054-1068,doi:10.11676/qxxb2014.048.
秦丽,李耀东,高守亭.2006.北京地区雷暴大风的天气-气候学特征研究[J].气候与环境研究,11(6):754-762.Qin Li,Li Yaodong,Gao Shouting.2006.The synoptic and climatic characteristic studies of thunderstorm winds in Beijing[J].Climatic and Environmental Research(in Chinese),11(6):754-762,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2006.06.10.
任国玉,封国林,严中伟.2010.中国极端气候变化观测研究回顾与展望[J].气候与环境研究,15(4):337-353.Ren Guoyu,Feng Guolin,Yan Zhongwei.2010.Progresses in observation studies of climate extremes and changes in mainland China[J].Climatic and Environmental Research(in Chinese),15(4):337-353,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2010.04.01.
任国玉,任玉玉,战云健,等.2015.中国大陆降水时空变异规律--Ⅱ.现代变化趋势[J].水科学进展,26(4):451-465.Ren Guoyu,Ren Yuyu,Zhan Yunjian,et al.2015.Spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation variability over mainland China:II:Recent trends[J].Advances in Water Science(in Chinese),26(4):451-465,doi:10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2015.04.001.
任国玉,柳艳菊,孙秀宝,等.2016.中国大陆降水时空变异规律--Ⅲ.趋势变化原因[J].水科学进展,27(3):327-348.Ren Guoyu,Liu Yanju,Sun Xiubao,et al.2016.Spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation variability over mainland China:Ⅲ:Causes for recent trends[J].Advances in Water Science(in Chinese),27(3):327-348,doi:10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2016.03.001.
Sioutas M,Meaden T,Webb J D C.2009.Hail frequency,distribution and intensity in northern Greece[J].Atmospheric Research,93(1-3):526-533,doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2008.09.023.
孙继松,陶祖钰.2012.强对流天气分析与预报中的若干基本问题[J].气象,38(2):164-173.Sun Jisong,Tao Zuyu.2012.Some essential issues connected with severe convective weather analysis and forecast[J].Meteorological Monthly(in Chinese),38(2):164-173,doi:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2012.2.004.
徐桂玉,杨修群.2001.我国南方雷暴的气候特征研究[J].气象科学,21(3):299-307.Xu Guiyu,Yang Xiuqun.2001.Climatic features of thunderstorms in the South China[J].Scientia Meteorologica Sinica(in Chinese),21(3):299-307,doi:10.3969/j.issn.1009-0827.2001.03.006.
余蓉,张小玲,李国平,等.2012.1971~2000年我国东部地区雷暴、冰雹、雷暴大风发生频率的变化[J].气象,38(10):1207-1216.Yu Rong,Zhang Xiaoling,Li Guoping,et al.2012.Analysis of frequency variation of thunderstorm,hail,and gale wind in eastern China from 1971 to 2000[J].Meteorological Monthly(in Chinese),38(10):1207-1216,doi:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2012.10.006.
俞小鼎,周小刚,王秀明.2012.雷暴与强对流临近天气预报技术进展[J].气象学报,70(3):311-337.Yu Xiaoding,Zhou Xiaogang,Wang Xiuming.2012.The advances in the nowcasting techniques on thunderstorms and severe convection[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica(in Chinese),70(3):311-337,doi:10.11676/qxxb2012.030.
翟盘茂,王萃萃,李威.2007.极端降水事件变化的观测研究[J].气候变化研究进展,3(3):144-148.Zhai Panmao,Wang Cuicui,Li Wei.2007.Areview on study of change in precipitation extremes[J].Advances in Climate Change Research(in Chinese),3(3):144-148,doi:10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2007.03.004.
张芳华,高辉.2008.中国冰雹日数的时空分布特征[J].南京气象学院学报,31(5):687-693.Zhang Fanghua,Gao Hui.2008.Temproal and spatial features of hail days in China[J].Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology(in Chinese),31(5):687-693,doi:10.3969/j.issn.1674-7097.2008.05.011.
张敏锋,冯霞.1998.我国雷暴天气的气候特征[J].热带气象学报,14(2):156-162.Zhang Minfeng,Feng Xia.1998.A study on climatic features and anomalies of the thunderstorm in China[J].Journal of Tropical Meteorology(in Chinese),14(2):156-162.
Zhang Q H,Ni X,Zhang F Q.2017.Decreasing trend in severe weather occurrence over China during the past 50 years[J].Scientific Reports,7:42310,doi:10.1038/srep42310.
赵煜飞,余予.2015.中国地面强对流天气数据集[DB].国家气象信息中心,http://10.1.64.154/mdms/jsp_index.index?d=http://10.1.64.154/mdms/jsp_metadata.index?id=194[2016-11-02].Zhao Yufei,Yu Yu.2015.Chinese Strong Convective Weather Data Set(in Chinese)[DB].National Meteorological Information Center,http://10.1.64.154/mdms/jsp_index.index?d=http://10.1.64.154/mdms/jsp_metadata.index?id=194[2016-11-02].
陈思蓉,朱伟军,周兵.2009.中国雷暴气候分布特征及变化趋势[J].大气科学学报,32(5):703-710.Chen Sirong,Zhu Weijun,Zhou Bing.2009.Climate characteristic and variation tendency of thunderstorm in China[J].Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),32(5):703-710.
陈思宇,黄建平,付强,等.2012.气溶胶对我国中东部地区秋季降水的影响[J].热带气象学报,28(3):339-347.Chen Siyu,Huang Jianping,Fu Qiang,et al.2012.Effects of aerosols on autumn precipitation over mid-eastern China[J].Journal of Tropical Meteorology(in Chinese),28(3):339-347,doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-4965.2012.03.006.
Christian H J,Blakeslee R J,Boccippio D J,et al.2003.Global frequency and distribution of lightning as observed from space by the optical transient detector[J].J.Geophys.Res.,108(D1):4005,doi:10.1029/2002JD002347.
Dai A G.2001.Global precipitation and thunderstorm frequencies.Part II:Diurnal variations[J].J.Climate,14(6):1112-1128,doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<1112:GPATFP>2.0.CO;2.
符琳,李维京,张培群,等.2011.近50年我国冰雹年代际变化及北方冰雹趋势的成因分析[J].气象,37(6):669-676.Fu Lin,Li Weijing,Zhang Peiqun,et al.2011.Inter-decadal change of hail events over China and causation analysis in northern China in recent 50 years[J].Meteorological Monthly(in Chinese),37(6):669-676,doi:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2011.6.003.
黄武斌,王研峰,黄玉霞,等.2016.1974~2013年甘肃省冰雹气候时空变化特征[J].气象与环境学报,32(1):103-107.Huang Wubin,Wang Yanfeng,Huang Yuxia,et al.2016.Spatial and temporal climatic characteristics of hail from 1974 to 2013 in Gansu Province[J].Journal of Meteorology and Environment(in Chinese),32(1):103-107,doi:10.11927/j.issn.1673-503X.2016.01.015.
李韬光,张红雨,柳琼,等.2015.1981~2013年山西地区冰雹气候特征分析[J].气象与环境学报,31(5):165-170.Li Taoguang,Zhang Hongyu,Liu Qiong,et al.2015.Climate characteristics of hail in Shanxi Province from 1981 to 2013[J].Journal of Meteorology and Environment(in Chinese),31(5):165-170.
李照荣,康凤琴,马胜萍.2005.西北地区雷暴气候特征分析[J].灾害学,20(2):83-88.Li Zhaorong,Kang Fengqin,Ma Shengping.2005.Analysis on climatic characteristics of thunderstorm in Northwest China[J].Journal of Catastrophology(in Chinese),20(2):83-88,doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2005.02.018.
郄秀书,刘冬霞,孙竹玲.2014.闪电气象学研究进展[J].气象学报,72(5):1054-1068.Qie Xiushu,Liu Dongxia,Sun Zhuling.2014.Recent advances in research of lightning meteorology[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica(in Chinese),72(5):1054-1068,doi:10.11676/qxxb2014.048.
秦丽,李耀东,高守亭.2006.北京地区雷暴大风的天气-气候学特征研究[J].气候与环境研究,11(6):754-762.Qin Li,Li Yaodong,Gao Shouting.2006.The synoptic and climatic characteristic studies of thunderstorm winds in Beijing[J].Climatic and Environmental Research(in Chinese),11(6):754-762,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2006.06.10.
任国玉,封国林,严中伟.2010.中国极端气候变化观测研究回顾与展望[J].气候与环境研究,15(4):337-353.Ren Guoyu,Feng Guolin,Yan Zhongwei.2010.Progresses in observation studies of climate extremes and changes in mainland China[J].Climatic and Environmental Research(in Chinese),15(4):337-353,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2010.04.01.
任国玉,任玉玉,战云健,等.2015.中国大陆降水时空变异规律--Ⅱ.现代变化趋势[J].水科学进展,26(4):451-465.Ren Guoyu,Ren Yuyu,Zhan Yunjian,et al.2015.Spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation variability over mainland China:II:Recent trends[J].Advances in Water Science(in Chinese),26(4):451-465,doi:10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2015.04.001.
任国玉,柳艳菊,孙秀宝,等.2016.中国大陆降水时空变异规律--Ⅲ.趋势变化原因[J].水科学进展,27(3):327-348.Ren Guoyu,Liu Yanju,Sun Xiubao,et al.2016.Spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation variability over mainland China:Ⅲ:Causes for recent trends[J].Advances in Water Science(in Chinese),27(3):327-348,doi:10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2016.03.001.
Sioutas M,Meaden T,Webb J D C.2009.Hail frequency,distribution and intensity in northern Greece[J].Atmospheric Research,93(1-3):526-533,doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2008.09.023.
孙继松,陶祖钰.2012.强对流天气分析与预报中的若干基本问题[J].气象,38(2):164-173.Sun Jisong,Tao Zuyu.2012.Some essential issues connected with severe convective weather analysis and forecast[J].Meteorological Monthly(in Chinese),38(2):164-173,doi:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2012.2.004.
徐桂玉,杨修群.2001.我国南方雷暴的气候特征研究[J].气象科学,21(3):299-307.Xu Guiyu,Yang Xiuqun.2001.Climatic features of thunderstorms in the South China[J].Scientia Meteorologica Sinica(in Chinese),21(3):299-307,doi:10.3969/j.issn.1009-0827.2001.03.006.
余蓉,张小玲,李国平,等.2012.1971~2000年我国东部地区雷暴、冰雹、雷暴大风发生频率的变化[J].气象,38(10):1207-1216.Yu Rong,Zhang Xiaoling,Li Guoping,et al.2012.Analysis of frequency variation of thunderstorm,hail,and gale wind in eastern China from 1971 to 2000[J].Meteorological Monthly(in Chinese),38(10):1207-1216,doi:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2012.10.006.
俞小鼎,周小刚,王秀明.2012.雷暴与强对流临近天气预报技术进展[J].气象学报,70(3):311-337.Yu Xiaoding,Zhou Xiaogang,Wang Xiuming.2012.The advances in the nowcasting techniques on thunderstorms and severe convection[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica(in Chinese),70(3):311-337,doi:10.11676/qxxb2012.030.
翟盘茂,王萃萃,李威.2007.极端降水事件变化的观测研究[J].气候变化研究进展,3(3):144-148.Zhai Panmao,Wang Cuicui,Li Wei.2007.Areview on study of change in precipitation extremes[J].Advances in Climate Change Research(in Chinese),3(3):144-148,doi:10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2007.03.004.
张芳华,高辉.2008.中国冰雹日数的时空分布特征[J].南京气象学院学报,31(5):687-693.Zhang Fanghua,Gao Hui.2008.Temproal and spatial features of hail days in China[J].Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology(in Chinese),31(5):687-693,doi:10.3969/j.issn.1674-7097.2008.05.011.
张敏锋,冯霞.1998.我国雷暴天气的气候特征[J].热带气象学报,14(2):156-162.Zhang Minfeng,Feng Xia.1998.A study on climatic features and anomalies of the thunderstorm in China[J].Journal of Tropical Meteorology(in Chinese),14(2):156-162.
Zhang Q H,Ni X,Zhang F Q.2017.Decreasing trend in severe weather occurrence over China during the past 50 years[J].Scientific Reports,7:42310,doi:10.1038/srep42310.
赵煜飞,余予.2015.中国地面强对流天气数据集[DB].国家气象信息中心,http://10.1.64.154/mdms/jsp_index.index?d=http://10.1.64.154/mdms/jsp_metadata.index?id=194[2016-11-02].Zhao Yufei,Yu Yu.2015.Chinese Strong Convective Weather Data Set(in Chinese)[DB].National Meteorological Information Center,http://10.1.64.154/mdms/jsp_index.index?d=http://10.1.64.154/mdms/jsp_metadata.index?id=194[2016-11-02].