辽宁省陆海产业协调发展的驱动因素研究
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摘要
陆地与海洋协调发展是区域协调发展的重要内容。利用多元系统协调发展模型对辽宁省2006～2015年陆地产业和海洋产业的协调发展度进行测度,通过灰色关联模型定量分析陆地产业与海洋产业协调发展的驱动因素的结果表明:2006～2015年辽宁省陆海间产业协调度总体呈现波动下降趋势,协调度由0.997下降到0.970,陆海三次产业协调度大小排序为第三产业>第二产业>第一产业;陆海产业协调发展度由0.7869上升到0.9144,总体呈上升趋势,年均上升1.8%,且后期的陆海产业协调发展速度大于前期;影响陆海产业总体协调发展度的前三个产业是海洋渔业、海洋交通业和海洋化工业,关联度分别为0.7982、0.6667和0.5467,今后辽宁省应从稳定海洋渔业、优化或淘汰陆地落后第二产业,大力发展陆地金融业、服务业和旅游业等方面入手促进陆地与海洋产业协调发展。
The coordinated development of land and marine industries is an important part of regional coordinated development. The multi-system coordinated development model is used to measure the coordinated development of the land and marine industries in Liaoning Province from 2006 to 2015, and the grey correlation model is used to make a quantitative analysis of the driving factors of the coordinated development of land and marine industries.Result shows that from 2006 to 2015 the coordination between land and marine industries in Liaoning Province showed a trend of fluctuation and decline, the coordination degree decreased from 0.997 to 0.970, and the result of the ranking of coordination degree of land and marine industries was that the tertiary industry ranked first, the secondary industry and primary industry ranked second and third respectively; the coordinated development of land and marine industries increased from 0.7869 to 0.9144, the overall trend was on the rise, with an average annual increase of 1.8%, and the rising speed was higher in the late stage than in the early stage; the first three industries affecting the overall coordinated development of land and marine industries were marine fishery, marine transportation and marine chemical industry respectively, and the correlation was 0.7982, 0.6667 and 0.5467 respectively. It is proposed that Liaoning Province promote the coordinated development between land and marine industries by stabilizing marine fisheries, optimizing or eliminating the backward secondary industry on land and developing land finance, services and tourism vigorously.
The coordinated development of land and marine industries is an important part of regional coordinated development. The multi-system coordinated development model is used to measure the coordinated development of the land and marine industries in Liaoning Province from 2006 to 2015, and the grey correlation model is used to make a quantitative analysis of the driving factors of the coordinated development of land and marine industries.Result shows that from 2006 to 2015 the coordination between land and marine industries in Liaoning Province showed a trend of fluctuation and decline, the coordination degree decreased from 0.997 to 0.970, and the result of the ranking of coordination degree of land and marine industries was that the tertiary industry ranked first, the secondary industry and primary industry ranked second and third respectively; the coordinated development of land and marine industries increased from 0.7869 to 0.9144, the overall trend was on the rise, with an average annual increase of 1.8%, and the rising speed was higher in the late stage than in the early stage; the first three industries affecting the overall coordinated development of land and marine industries were marine fishery, marine transportation and marine chemical industry respectively, and the correlation was 0.7982, 0.6667 and 0.5467 respectively. It is proposed that Liaoning Province promote the coordinated development between land and marine industries by stabilizing marine fisheries, optimizing or eliminating the backward secondary industry on land and developing land finance, services and tourism vigorously.
引文
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[3]叶向东.海陆统筹发展战略研究[J].海洋开发与管理,2008,25(8):33-36.
[4]盖美,刘伟光,田成诗.中国沿海地区海陆产业系统时空耦合分析[J].资源科学,2013,35(5):966-976.
[5]苑清敏,申婷婷,秦聪聪.我国沿海省市海陆产业协同发展时空差异分析[J].经济实证,2015,26(4):150-153.
[6]秦伟山,杨浩东,李晶娜,等.环渤海海洋生态文明城市建设的评价体系与水平测度[J].科技导报,2016,34(21):333-339.
[7]董晓菲,韩增林,王荣成.东北地区沿海经济带与腹地海陆产业联动发展[J].经济地理,2009,29(1):31-35.
[8]隋鹏飞,任建兰.山东省海陆产业联动发展探讨[J].地域研究与开发,2015,34(3):23-26.
[9]常玉苗,成长春.江苏海陆产业关联效应及联动发展对策[J].地域研究与开发,2012,31(4):34-36.
[10]李健,滕欣.天津市海陆产业系统协同效应及发展趋势研究[J].科技进步与对策,2013,30(17):103-107.
[11]段志霞.蓝色经济区战略下青岛海陆产业联动发展研究[J].港口经济,2015,10(3):12-16.
[12]王莉莉,肖雯雯.基于投入产出模型的中国海洋产业关联及海陆产业联动发展分析[J].经济地理,2016,36(1):113-119.
[13]孙才志,高扬,韩建.基于能力结构关系模型的环渤海地区海陆一体化评价[J].地域研究与开发,2012,31(6):115-118.
[14]戴桂林,刘蕾.基于系统论的海陆产业联动机制探讨[J].海洋开发与管理,2007,(6):87-92.
[15] MAHADEV G.BHAT,RAMACHANDRA BHATTA.Considering aquacultural externality in coastal land allocation decisions in India[J].Enviro-nmental and Resource Economics,2004,29(1):1-20.
[16] FRANCISCO TAVEIRA PINTO. The practice of coastal zone management in Portugal[J]. Journal of Coastal Conservation,2004,10(1):147-157.
[17] NICOLE SCHAEFER,VITTORIO BARALE.Maritime spatial planning:opportunities&challenges in the framework of the EU integrated maritime policy[J].Journal of Coastal Conservation,2011,15(2):237-245.
[18]周成,冯学钢,唐睿.区域经济—生态环境—旅游产业耦合协调发展分析与预测[J].经济地理,2016,36(3):186-193.
[19]李林萍,郭欣,于江,等.SBS复合改性沥青存储稳定性与常规性能的灰色关联分析[J].科学技术与工程,2017,(35):318-324.
[20]刘爱芹.山东省能源消费与工业经济增长的灰色关联分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2008,18(3):103-107.