政府卫生支出对区域经济的空间溢出效应研究——基于山东省17市的空间面板模型
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摘要
文章基于空间统计学的研究视角,运用全域和局部空间Moran’s I指数散点图考察了山东省2006-2016年政府卫生支出与各地区GDP的空间相关性和空间集聚现象,并通过构建空间杜宾模型进一步分析了山东省政府卫生支出对经济增长的影响。结果显示:山东省政府卫生支出空间相关性出现先减弱后增强的现象,政府卫生支出与经济增长的空间分布表现出明显的非均质性;人均政府卫生支出对区域经济增长存在显著正向溢出效应,且直接效应与间接效应系数相近,政府医疗支出对经济增长表现出较强的空间溢出;就业率对经济增长表现出较强的影响效应,其每提高一个百分点,给本地区和其他地区分别带来232 821.7元和194 567.5元的经济收益,而万人床位数和万人医疗卫生人员因其配置严重不均衡导致对经济增长表现出负向影响。基于此,文章给出了相应建议。
From the perspective of spatial statistics,this paper investigates the spatial correlation and the spatial agglomeration between government health expenditure and regional GDP in Shandong province from 2006 to 2016 by applying Moran's I index scatter plot,and further analyzes the impact of government health expenditure on economic growth in Shandong province by constructing the Spatial Durbin Model. The results show that: The spatial correlation of government health expenditure in Shandong province weakens first and then increases,and the spatial distribution of government health expenditure and economic growth shows an obvious heterogeneity;Per capita government health expenditure on regional economic growth has a significant positive spillover effect. And the direct effect coefficient and the indirect effect coefficient are similar. Government health expenditure on economic growth shows a strong spatial spillover;Employment rate has a strong effect on economic growth. Every percentage point increase in employment rate brings economic benefits of 232,821.7 yuan and 194,567.5 yuan respectively to local and other regions,whereas the number of beds and medical and health personnel of ten thousand people have a negative impact on economic growth due to the serious imbalance in their allocation. Accordingly,the paper finally proposes the corresponding suggestions.
From the perspective of spatial statistics,this paper investigates the spatial correlation and the spatial agglomeration between government health expenditure and regional GDP in Shandong province from 2006 to 2016 by applying Moran's I index scatter plot,and further analyzes the impact of government health expenditure on economic growth in Shandong province by constructing the Spatial Durbin Model. The results show that: The spatial correlation of government health expenditure in Shandong province weakens first and then increases,and the spatial distribution of government health expenditure and economic growth shows an obvious heterogeneity;Per capita government health expenditure on regional economic growth has a significant positive spillover effect. And the direct effect coefficient and the indirect effect coefficient are similar. Government health expenditure on economic growth shows a strong spatial spillover;Employment rate has a strong effect on economic growth. Every percentage point increase in employment rate brings economic benefits of 232,821.7 yuan and 194,567.5 yuan respectively to local and other regions,whereas the number of beds and medical and health personnel of ten thousand people have a negative impact on economic growth due to the serious imbalance in their allocation. Accordingly,the paper finally proposes the corresponding suggestions.
引文
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[12]邓若冰,刘颜.工业集聚、空间溢出与区域经济增长——基于空间面板杜宾模型的研究[J].经济问题探索,2016(1):66-76.
[13]ANSELIN L,GALLO J L,JAYET H. The Econometrics of Panel Data[M]. Berlin:Springer,2008:625-660.
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[15]ATEMS B. The spatial Dynamics of Growth and Inequality:Evidence Using U. S. County-level Data[J]. Economics Letters,2013,118(1):19-22.
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[17]LESAGE J,PACE R K. Introduction to spatial Econometrics[M]. New York:CRC Press,2009:513-514.
[18]曹霞,张路蓬.金融支持对技术创新的直接影响及空间溢出效应——基于中国2003-2013年省际空间面板杜宾模型[J].管理评论,2017(7):36-45.
[2]PEREIRA A M,SAGALES O R. On the regional impact of public capital formation in spain[R]. Working papers,2003.
[3]李后建,何山.公共财政支出结构失衡对区域经济协调增长的影响研究[J].南京师大学报:社会科学版,2011(4):53-60.
[4]宋丽颖,张伟亮.财政支出对经济增长空间溢出效应研究[J].财政研究,2018(3):31-41.
[5]宋映铉,赵雪冉.地方公共财政支出空间溢出效应研究——以京津冀地区为例[J].财经视线,2017(5):160-162.
[6]潘文卿.中国的区域关联与经济增长的空间溢出效应[J].中国社会科学:英文版,2012(1):125-139.
[7]伍骏骞,阮建青,徐广彤.经济集聚、经济距离与农民增收:直接影响与空间溢出效应[J].经济学(季刊),2017(1):297-320.
[8]李俊.浅谈医疗卫生事业对经济发展的影响[J].社会视点,2012(7):164-165.
[9]郝宏杰.财政支出、空间溢出效应与服务业增长——基于中心城市数据的空间杜宾模型分析[J].上海财经大学学报,2017,19(4):79-92.
[10]MORAN P. A Test for Serial Correlation of Residuals[J].Biometrika,1950,37(1/2):178.
[11]张松林,张昆.全局空间自相关Moran指数和G系数对比研究[J].中山大学学报:自然科学版,2007,46(4):93-97.
[12]邓若冰,刘颜.工业集聚、空间溢出与区域经济增长——基于空间面板杜宾模型的研究[J].经济问题探索,2016(1):66-76.
[13]ANSELIN L,GALLO J L,JAYET H. The Econometrics of Panel Data[M]. Berlin:Springer,2008:625-660.
[14]万坤扬,陆文聪.中国技术创新区域变化及其成因分析——基于面板数据的空间计量经济学模型[J].科学学研究,2010(10):1582-1591.
[15]ATEMS B. The spatial Dynamics of Growth and Inequality:Evidence Using U. S. County-level Data[J]. Economics Letters,2013,118(1):19-22.
[16]ELHORST J P. Dynamic Spatial Panels:Models,Methods,and Inferences[J]. Journal of Geographical System,2012,14(1):5-28.
[17]LESAGE J,PACE R K. Introduction to spatial Econometrics[M]. New York:CRC Press,2009:513-514.
[18]曹霞,张路蓬.金融支持对技术创新的直接影响及空间溢出效应——基于中国2003-2013年省际空间面板杜宾模型[J].管理评论,2017(7):36-45.
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