公路交通能源环境效率与能源回弹效应——基于空间溢出效应的研究
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摘要
使用超效率DEA模型测算2002—2016年中国30个省市公路交通能源环境效率,构建空间杜宾模型与空间误差修正模型测算公路交通长期和短期能源回弹效应。研究表明,公路交通能源环境效率存在显著的区域和时间差异,以能源服务对能源环境效率的弹性作为能源回弹效应的度量指标,能源回弹效应值较低。长期内,客运交通与货运交通能源回弹效应分别为9.16%～10.14%与23.44～25.8%;短期内,客运交通能源回弹效应不显著,货运交通能源回弹效应为13.72%。能源环境效率提升所带来的能源节约并未被能源回弹效应大幅度折抵。以能源服务对燃料价格的弹性作为能源回弹效应的度量指标,客运交通与货运交通短期能源回弹效应分别为68.22%与71.68%。能源回弹效应的空间溢出效应作用显著:长期内,邻省燃料价格每下降1%,本省客运周转量增加0.4365%,货运周转量增加0.68%;短期内,邻省燃料价格每下降1%,本省客运周转量增加0.4119%,货运周转量增加0.6977%。
This paper uses the super-efficiency DEA model to calculate the energy and environmental efficiency of road transport in 30 provinces of China from 2002 to 2016.It constructs a spatial Durbin model and a spatial error correction model to calculate the long-term and short-term energy rebound effect of road transport respectively.The results show that:there are remarkable regional and temporal differences in energy and environmental efficiency of road transport.When the elasticity of energy services to energy and environmental efficiency is used as a measure of energy rebound effect,the value of energy rebound effect is low.In long term,the energy rebound effect of passenger transport and freight transport is 9.16%～10.14%and 23.44%～25.8%respectively,in short term that is not significant,while that of freight transport is 13.72%.The energy savings brought about by the improvement of energy and environmental efficiency have not been substantially offset.By taking the elasticity of energy services to fuel prices as a measure of energy rebound effect,the short-term energy rebound effects of passenger transport and freight transport are 68.22% and 71.68%.The spatial spillover effect of energy rebound effect noteworthy:in long term,the fuel price of neighbouring provinces decreases by 1%,passenger and freight turnover increases by 0.4365% and 0.68%;in short term,for every 1% drop in fuel prices in neighbouring provinces,passenger and freight turnover increased by 0.4119% and 0.6977% respectively.
This paper uses the super-efficiency DEA model to calculate the energy and environmental efficiency of road transport in 30 provinces of China from 2002 to 2016.It constructs a spatial Durbin model and a spatial error correction model to calculate the long-term and short-term energy rebound effect of road transport respectively.The results show that:there are remarkable regional and temporal differences in energy and environmental efficiency of road transport.When the elasticity of energy services to energy and environmental efficiency is used as a measure of energy rebound effect,the value of energy rebound effect is low.In long term,the energy rebound effect of passenger transport and freight transport is 9.16%～10.14%and 23.44%～25.8%respectively,in short term that is not significant,while that of freight transport is 13.72%.The energy savings brought about by the improvement of energy and environmental efficiency have not been substantially offset.By taking the elasticity of energy services to fuel prices as a measure of energy rebound effect,the short-term energy rebound effects of passenger transport and freight transport are 68.22% and 71.68%.The spatial spillover effect of energy rebound effect noteworthy:in long term,the fuel price of neighbouring provinces decreases by 1%,passenger and freight turnover increases by 0.4365% and 0.68%;in short term,for every 1% drop in fuel prices in neighbouring provinces,passenger and freight turnover increased by 0.4119% and 0.6977% respectively.
引文
[1]LIU Z,QIN C X,ZHANG Y J.The energy-environment efficiency of road and railway sector in China:evidence from the provincial level[J].Ecological Indicators,2016,69:559-570.
[2]ZHANG Y J,LIU Z,QIN C X,et al.The direct and indirect CO2rebound effect for private cars in China[J].Energy Policy,2017,100:149-161.
[3]WANG K,YU S W,ZHANG W.China's regional energy and environmental efficiency:a DEA window analysis based dynamic evaluation[J].Mathematical&Computer Modelling,2013,58(5-6):1117-1127.
[4]WANG H,ZHOU P,ZHOU D Q.An empirical study of direct rebound effect for passenger transport in urban China[J].Energy Economics,2012,34(2):452-460.
[5]BARKER T,DAGOUMA A,RUBIN J.The macroeconomic rebound effect and the world economy[J].Energy Efficiency,2009,2(4):411-427.
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[7]WU J,ZHU Q Y,CHU J F,et al.Measuring energy and environmental efficiency of transportation systems in China based on a parallel DEA approach[J].Transportation Research Part D:Transport and Environment,2016,48:460-472.
[8]SONG M,ZHENG W,WANG Z.Environmental efficiency and energy consumption of highway transportation systems in China[J].International Journal of Production Economics,2016,181:441-449.
[9]SONG M L,ZHANG G J,ZENG W X,et al.Railway transportation and environmental efficiency[J].Transportation Research Part D,2016,48:488-498.
[10]ZHANG N,CHOI Y.A note on the evolution of directional distance function and its development in energy and environmental studies 1997-2013[J].Renewable&Sustainable Energy Reviews,2014,33(2):50-59.
[11]LI H,SHI J F.Energy efficiency analysis on Chinese industrial sectors:an improved Super-SBM model with undesirable outputs[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2014,65(4):97-107.
[12]YANG L,OUYANG H,FANG K G,et al.Evaluation of regional environmental efficiencies in China based on super-efficiency-DEA[J].Ecological Indicators,2015,51:13-19.
[13]LIN B Q,LIU X.Electricity tariff reform and rebound effect of residential electricity consumption in China[J].Energy,2013,59:240-247.
[14]YU B Y,ZHANG J Y,FUJIWARA A.Rebound effects caused by the improvement of vehicle energy efficiency:an analysis based on a SP-off-RP survey[J].Transportation Research Part D,2013,24:62-68.
[15]WANG Z H,LU M L.An empirical study of direct rebound effect for road freight transport in China[J].Applied Energy,2014,133:274-281.
[16]STEREN A,RUBIN O D,ROSENZWEIG S.Assessing the rebound effect using a natural experiment setting:evidence from the private transportation sector in Israel[J].Energy Policy,2016,93:41-49.
[17]ZHANG Y J,PENG H R,LIU Z,et al.Direct energy rebound effect for road passenger transport in China:a dynamic panel quantile regression approach[J].Energy Policy,2015,87:303-313.
[18]STAPLETON L,SORRELL S,SCHWANEN T.Estimating direct rebound effects for personal automotive travel in Great Britain[J].Energy Economics,2016,54:313-325.
[19]CHAI J,YANG Y,WANG S Y,et al.Fuel efficiency and emission in China's road transport sector:induced effect and rebound effect[J].Technological Forecasting and Social Change,2016,112:188-197.
[20]MOSHIRI S,ALIYEV K.Rebound effect of efficiency improvement in passenger cars on gasoline consumption in Canada[J].Ecological Economics,2017,131:330-341.
[21]LLORCA M,JAMASB T.Energy efficiency and rebound effect in European road freight transport[J].Transportation Research Part A:Policy and Practice,2017,101:98-110.
[22]贾锐宁,徐海成.公路收费政策的大气污染防治效应---基于空间溢出视角下城市层面的证据[J].技术经济,2018,37(8):43-51.
[23]田建国,王玉海.财政分权、地方政府竞争和碳排放空间溢出效应分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2018,37(5):103-114.
[24]马剑锋,王慧敏,佟金萍.技术进步与效率追赶对农业用水效率的空间效应研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2018,28(7):36-45.
[25]ZHOU G H,CHUNG W,ZHANG X L.A study of carbon dioxide emissions performance of China's transport sector[J].Energy,2013,50:302-314.
[26]YANG S,HE L Y.Fuel demand,road transport pollution emissions and residents'health losses in the transitional China[J].Transportation Research Part D:Transport and Environment,2016,42:45-59.
[27]ZHANG S S,LIN B Q.Investigating the rebound effect in road transport system:empirical evidence from China[J].Energy Policy,2018,112:129-140.
(1)https://www.iea.org/statistics/co2emissions/。
(1)假设公路交通的能源消耗来源于10类汽车的燃油消耗,即LPV-D,MPV-G,SPV-G,MNPV-G,HDT-D,MDT-D,LDT-D,MNT-G,PB-D和Taxi-G。LPV为大型客车,MPV为中型客车,SPV为小型客车,MNPV为迷你乘用车,HDT为重型卡车,MDT为中型卡车,LDT为轻型卡车,MNT为迷你卡车,PB为公共巴士,D为柴油,G为汽油。
(2)各类汽车的年均行驶里程和燃油经济的技术系数见参考文献[26]的表2。
(1)http://www.evlook.com/zhengce/guonei/content-21197.html。
(2)http://www.npc.gov.cn/npc/xinwen/2013-10/22/content_1810645.htm。
[2]ZHANG Y J,LIU Z,QIN C X,et al.The direct and indirect CO2rebound effect for private cars in China[J].Energy Policy,2017,100:149-161.
[3]WANG K,YU S W,ZHANG W.China's regional energy and environmental efficiency:a DEA window analysis based dynamic evaluation[J].Mathematical&Computer Modelling,2013,58(5-6):1117-1127.
[4]WANG H,ZHOU P,ZHOU D Q.An empirical study of direct rebound effect for passenger transport in urban China[J].Energy Economics,2012,34(2):452-460.
[5]BARKER T,DAGOUMA A,RUBIN J.The macroeconomic rebound effect and the world economy[J].Energy Efficiency,2009,2(4):411-427.
[6]ZHANG J X,LIU Y M,CHANG Y,et al.Industrial ecoefficiency in China:aprovincial quantification using threestage data envelopment analysis[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2017,143(1):238-249.
[7]WU J,ZHU Q Y,CHU J F,et al.Measuring energy and environmental efficiency of transportation systems in China based on a parallel DEA approach[J].Transportation Research Part D:Transport and Environment,2016,48:460-472.
[8]SONG M,ZHENG W,WANG Z.Environmental efficiency and energy consumption of highway transportation systems in China[J].International Journal of Production Economics,2016,181:441-449.
[9]SONG M L,ZHANG G J,ZENG W X,et al.Railway transportation and environmental efficiency[J].Transportation Research Part D,2016,48:488-498.
[10]ZHANG N,CHOI Y.A note on the evolution of directional distance function and its development in energy and environmental studies 1997-2013[J].Renewable&Sustainable Energy Reviews,2014,33(2):50-59.
[11]LI H,SHI J F.Energy efficiency analysis on Chinese industrial sectors:an improved Super-SBM model with undesirable outputs[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2014,65(4):97-107.
[12]YANG L,OUYANG H,FANG K G,et al.Evaluation of regional environmental efficiencies in China based on super-efficiency-DEA[J].Ecological Indicators,2015,51:13-19.
[13]LIN B Q,LIU X.Electricity tariff reform and rebound effect of residential electricity consumption in China[J].Energy,2013,59:240-247.
[14]YU B Y,ZHANG J Y,FUJIWARA A.Rebound effects caused by the improvement of vehicle energy efficiency:an analysis based on a SP-off-RP survey[J].Transportation Research Part D,2013,24:62-68.
[15]WANG Z H,LU M L.An empirical study of direct rebound effect for road freight transport in China[J].Applied Energy,2014,133:274-281.
[16]STEREN A,RUBIN O D,ROSENZWEIG S.Assessing the rebound effect using a natural experiment setting:evidence from the private transportation sector in Israel[J].Energy Policy,2016,93:41-49.
[17]ZHANG Y J,PENG H R,LIU Z,et al.Direct energy rebound effect for road passenger transport in China:a dynamic panel quantile regression approach[J].Energy Policy,2015,87:303-313.
[18]STAPLETON L,SORRELL S,SCHWANEN T.Estimating direct rebound effects for personal automotive travel in Great Britain[J].Energy Economics,2016,54:313-325.
[19]CHAI J,YANG Y,WANG S Y,et al.Fuel efficiency and emission in China's road transport sector:induced effect and rebound effect[J].Technological Forecasting and Social Change,2016,112:188-197.
[20]MOSHIRI S,ALIYEV K.Rebound effect of efficiency improvement in passenger cars on gasoline consumption in Canada[J].Ecological Economics,2017,131:330-341.
[21]LLORCA M,JAMASB T.Energy efficiency and rebound effect in European road freight transport[J].Transportation Research Part A:Policy and Practice,2017,101:98-110.
[22]贾锐宁,徐海成.公路收费政策的大气污染防治效应---基于空间溢出视角下城市层面的证据[J].技术经济,2018,37(8):43-51.
[23]田建国,王玉海.财政分权、地方政府竞争和碳排放空间溢出效应分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2018,37(5):103-114.
[24]马剑锋,王慧敏,佟金萍.技术进步与效率追赶对农业用水效率的空间效应研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2018,28(7):36-45.
[25]ZHOU G H,CHUNG W,ZHANG X L.A study of carbon dioxide emissions performance of China's transport sector[J].Energy,2013,50:302-314.
[26]YANG S,HE L Y.Fuel demand,road transport pollution emissions and residents'health losses in the transitional China[J].Transportation Research Part D:Transport and Environment,2016,42:45-59.
[27]ZHANG S S,LIN B Q.Investigating the rebound effect in road transport system:empirical evidence from China[J].Energy Policy,2018,112:129-140.
(1)https://www.iea.org/statistics/co2emissions/。
(1)假设公路交通的能源消耗来源于10类汽车的燃油消耗,即LPV-D,MPV-G,SPV-G,MNPV-G,HDT-D,MDT-D,LDT-D,MNT-G,PB-D和Taxi-G。LPV为大型客车,MPV为中型客车,SPV为小型客车,MNPV为迷你乘用车,HDT为重型卡车,MDT为中型卡车,LDT为轻型卡车,MNT为迷你卡车,PB为公共巴士,D为柴油,G为汽油。
(2)各类汽车的年均行驶里程和燃油经济的技术系数见参考文献[26]的表2。
(1)http://www.evlook.com/zhengce/guonei/content-21197.html。
(2)http://www.npc.gov.cn/npc/xinwen/2013-10/22/content_1810645.htm。