结构突变与经济持续增长——基于157个国家的面板数据分析
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摘要
传统经济增长研究中并未明确定义经济持续增长,而是将其同经济增长速度直接关联。但跨国经验表明,发展中国家与发达国家的本质区别在于经济持续增长的时间长短,使经济体保持持续增长要比使经济体出现高速增长困难得多。基于已有的研究,本文从持续增长时间长度、通过结构突变的统计学方法与经济学意义检验重新界定经济的持续增长为经济持续增长区间,并进一步通过持续期分析探索了传统意义上影响经济增长的因素是否同样作用于经济的持续增长。通过对157个国家1950—2014年面板数据的实证研究,发现经济体的发展水平与经济增长区间的长短相关,发达国家经济持续增长的时间相对更长;而经济体无法持续增长的风险概率随着增长区间的延长呈现先上升后下降的整体趋势,拐点出现在27年左右;比起物质资本和劳动力因素,人力资本对经济能否持续增长的影响更为显著,且人力资本在区间中的变化值比其初始值对经济持续增长的影响更为重要;财政支出对经济持续增长表现出显著的影响,但应更加关注财政支出的结构与规模。
Traditional economic growth studies do not clearly define sustainable growth instead of directly relating to growth speed. However, from cross-country data, it could be found that the difference between the developed countries and developing countries was how long an economy's growth could be sustained. To make sustainable growth is much more difficult than pushing growth to a certain high speed. Based on the previous research, this paper redefines the sustainable growth as the duration of sustained growth spells, through statistical method of structural breaks and further economic criteria. Additionally, this paper applies the duration analysis to explore whether traditionally significant variables on growth still have the same effect on sustainable growth. Through the panel data empirical study of 157 countries from 1950 to 2014, the authors find that economic development related to the duration of economic growth spells as the developed countries tend to have longer spells. Comparing with the physical capital and labor, human capital's influence on sustainable growth is more significant, and the effect of its change during spells is more significant than its initial level's. The fiscal expenditure also presents significant influence on the sustainable growth. Attention should be paid to its structure and size simultaneously.
Traditional economic growth studies do not clearly define sustainable growth instead of directly relating to growth speed. However, from cross-country data, it could be found that the difference between the developed countries and developing countries was how long an economy's growth could be sustained. To make sustainable growth is much more difficult than pushing growth to a certain high speed. Based on the previous research, this paper redefines the sustainable growth as the duration of sustained growth spells, through statistical method of structural breaks and further economic criteria. Additionally, this paper applies the duration analysis to explore whether traditionally significant variables on growth still have the same effect on sustainable growth. Through the panel data empirical study of 157 countries from 1950 to 2014, the authors find that economic development related to the duration of economic growth spells as the developed countries tend to have longer spells. Comparing with the physical capital and labor, human capital's influence on sustainable growth is more significant, and the effect of its change during spells is more significant than its initial level's. The fiscal expenditure also presents significant influence on the sustainable growth. Attention should be paid to its structure and size simultaneously.
引文
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[18]Lundberg,M.and Squire,L.,2003,The Simultaneous Evolution of Growth and Inequality,Economic Journal,113(487),pp.326-344.doi:10.1111/1468-0297.00127.
[19]Mendoza,E.G.,Milesi-Ferretti,G.M.and Asea,P.,1997,On the Ineffectiveness of Tax Policy in Altering Longrun Growth:Harberger’s Superneutrality Conjecture,Journal of Public Economics,66(1),pp.99-126.doi:10.1016/S0047-2727(97)00011-X.
[20]Minoiu,C.and Reddy,S.G.,2010,Development Aid and Economic Growth:A Positive Long-run Relation,The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance,50(1),pp.27-39.doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2009.10.004.
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[23]Rodrik,D.,1999,Where Did all the Growth Go?External Shocks,Social Conflict,and Growth Collapses,Journal of Economic Growth,4(4),pp.385-412.doi:10.1007/BF00163345.
[24]Rostow,W.W.,1959,The Stages of Economic Growth,The Economic History Review,Blackwell Publishing Ltd,12(1),pp.1-16.doi:10.1111/j.1468-0289.1959.tb01829.x.
[25]Therneau,T.M.and Hamilton,S.A.,1997,rh DNase as an Example of Recurrent event Analysis,Statistics in Medicine,John Wiley&Sons,Ltd.,16(18),pp.2029-2047.doi:10.1002/(SICI)1097-0258(19970930)16:18<2029::AID-SIM637>3.0.CO;2-H.
[26]Wooldridge,J.M.,2010,Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data,MIT Press,doi:10.1515/humr.2003.021.
(1)因自变量不存在自反馈,所以在此不讨论区间结束值的影响。
[2]Antoshin,S.,Berg,A.and Souto,M.,2008,Testing for Structural Breaks in Small Samples,IMF Working Papers,pp.1-27.
[3]Bai,J.and Perron,P.,1998,Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes,Econometrica,66(1),pp.47-78.
[4]Bai,J.and Perron,P.,2003,Computation and Analysis of Multiple Structural Change Models,Journal of Applied Econometrics,18(1),pp.1-22.doi:10.1002/jae.659.
[5]Bai,J.and Perron,P.,2006,Multiple Structural Change Models:A Simulation Analysis,Econometric Theory and Practice:Frontiers of Analysis and Applied Research,Cambridge University Press Cambridge,pp.212-237.
[6]Barro,R.J.,1991,Economic Growth in A Cross Section of Countries,Quarterly Journal of Economics,Oxford University Press/USA,106(2),p.407.
[7]Ben-David,D.and Papell,D.H.,1998,Slowdowns and Meltdowns:Postwar Growth Evidence from 74 Countries,Review of Economics and Statistics,80(4),pp.561-571.
[8]Berg,A.,Ostry,J.D.and Zettelmeyer,J.,2012,What Makes Growth Sustained?Journal of Development Economics,98(2),pp.149-166.doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2011.08.002.
[9]Berg,A.G.and Ostry,J.D.,2017,Inequality and Unsustainable Growth:Two Sides of the Same Coin?,IMF Economic Review,65(4),pp.792-815.doi:10.1057/s41308-017-0030-8.
[10]Castelló,A.and Doménech,R.,2002,Human Capital Inequality and Economic Growth:Some New Evidence,The E-conomic Journal,Blackwell Publishers,112(478),pp.C187-C200.doi:10.1111/1468-0297.00024.
[11]Cleves,M.,2000,Analysis of Multiple Failure-time Data with Stata,Stata Technical Bulletin,Stata Corp LP,9(49).
[12]Easterly,W.et al.,1993,Good Policy or Good Luck?Journal of Monetary Economics,32(3),pp.459-483.doi:10.1016/0304-3932(93)90026-C.
[13]Felipe,J.,Abdon,A.and Kumar,U.,2012,Tracking the Middle-income Trap:What Is It,Who Is in It,and Why?Adb Economics Working Paper.
[14]Hausmann,R.,Pritchett,L.and Rodrik,D.,2005,Growth Accelerations,Journal of Economic Growth,10(4),pp.303-329.doi:10.1007/s10887-005-4712-0.
[15]Hausmann,R.,Rodríguez,F.and Wagner,R.,2006,Growth Collapses,136.Harvard University,John F.Kennedy School of Government.
[16]Jerzmanowski,M.,2006,Empirics of Hills,Plateaus,Mountains and Plains:A Markov-switching Approach to Growth,Journal of Development Economics,81(2),pp.357-385.doi:10.1016/j.jdeveco.2005.05.005.
[17]Jones,B.F.and Olken,B.A.,2008,The Anatomy of Start-Stop Growth,Review of Economics and Statistics,90(3),pp.582-587.doi:10.1162/rest.90.3.582.
[18]Lundberg,M.and Squire,L.,2003,The Simultaneous Evolution of Growth and Inequality,Economic Journal,113(487),pp.326-344.doi:10.1111/1468-0297.00127.
[19]Mendoza,E.G.,Milesi-Ferretti,G.M.and Asea,P.,1997,On the Ineffectiveness of Tax Policy in Altering Longrun Growth:Harberger’s Superneutrality Conjecture,Journal of Public Economics,66(1),pp.99-126.doi:10.1016/S0047-2727(97)00011-X.
[20]Minoiu,C.and Reddy,S.G.,2010,Development Aid and Economic Growth:A Positive Long-run Relation,The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance,50(1),pp.27-39.doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2009.10.004.
[21]Pattillo,C.A.,Gupta,S.and Carey,K.,2005,Sustaining Growth Accelerations and Pro-Poor Growth in Africa,05/195.International Monetary Fund.
[22]Pritchett,L.,2000,Understanding Patterns of Economic Growth:Searching for Hills among Plateaus,Mountains,and Plains,The World Bank Economic Review,14(2),pp.221-250.doi:10.1093/wber/14.2.221.
[23]Rodrik,D.,1999,Where Did all the Growth Go?External Shocks,Social Conflict,and Growth Collapses,Journal of Economic Growth,4(4),pp.385-412.doi:10.1007/BF00163345.
[24]Rostow,W.W.,1959,The Stages of Economic Growth,The Economic History Review,Blackwell Publishing Ltd,12(1),pp.1-16.doi:10.1111/j.1468-0289.1959.tb01829.x.
[25]Therneau,T.M.and Hamilton,S.A.,1997,rh DNase as an Example of Recurrent event Analysis,Statistics in Medicine,John Wiley&Sons,Ltd.,16(18),pp.2029-2047.doi:10.1002/(SICI)1097-0258(19970930)16:18<2029::AID-SIM637>3.0.CO;2-H.
[26]Wooldridge,J.M.,2010,Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data,MIT Press,doi:10.1515/humr.2003.021.
(1)因自变量不存在自反馈,所以在此不讨论区间结束值的影响。