陕北能源开发区产业转型升级特征及其经济效应
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摘要
以陕北能源开发区榆林市为研究区,采用1990—2015年的统计调查数据,综合集成产业结构超前系数、More值测定法、Lilien指数和Shift-Share模型,对榆林市产业转型发展态势、产业转型升级方向、速度及其经济效应进行测度分析。结果发现,1990年以来,榆林市产业结构演进呈现"双拐点"特征,产业结构演进与就业结构变化不协调;第一产业和第三产业发展普遍滞后,以能源重工业为主导的第二产业处于超前发展状态;产业结构转型升级速度较快;国家政策是榆林市产业结构演进的重要动力;产业内部增长效应对经济增长贡献突出,第二产业和第三产业结构变迁效应是未来榆林市经济增长的"结构红利"所在,产业转型升级和结构调整空间大。本研究可为促进能源开发区产业结构转型升级提供理论参考和决策支持。
Taking the Yulin city,an energy exploitation area of northern Shaanxi province as the sample area,and based on the relative statistical data from 1990 to 2015,this paper makes an intensive analysis on the change trend of the three industrial structures,the direction and speed of industrial structure transformation and upgrade as well as its economic effects by using the methods of lead coefficient of industrial structure,More value,Lilien index and Shiftshare analysis.The results show that:During the period from 1990 to 2015,the main features of industrial structure evolution exhibited "double inflection point",and the industrial structure was not coordinated with the employment structure.The primary and the tertiary industry were lagged behind,while the secondary industry achieved advanced development.Then a fast industrial structure transformation and upgrade were conducted,due to the effective policies of the national government.The contribution to economic effects was more from the internal growth than from the structure evolution.The secondary and tertiary industry structure effect would play an essential role in the future economic growth,leaving a huge room for the industrial structure transformation and upgrade hence for economic growth.Our research can provide a reference and recommendation for promoting the industrial structure transformation and upgrade in other energy exploitation area.
Taking the Yulin city,an energy exploitation area of northern Shaanxi province as the sample area,and based on the relative statistical data from 1990 to 2015,this paper makes an intensive analysis on the change trend of the three industrial structures,the direction and speed of industrial structure transformation and upgrade as well as its economic effects by using the methods of lead coefficient of industrial structure,More value,Lilien index and Shiftshare analysis.The results show that:During the period from 1990 to 2015,the main features of industrial structure evolution exhibited "double inflection point",and the industrial structure was not coordinated with the employment structure.The primary and the tertiary industry were lagged behind,while the secondary industry achieved advanced development.Then a fast industrial structure transformation and upgrade were conducted,due to the effective policies of the national government.The contribution to economic effects was more from the internal growth than from the structure evolution.The secondary and tertiary industry structure effect would play an essential role in the future economic growth,leaving a huge room for the industrial structure transformation and upgrade hence for economic growth.Our research can provide a reference and recommendation for promoting the industrial structure transformation and upgrade in other energy exploitation area.
引文
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[5]杨家伟,乔家君.河南省产业结构演进与机理探究[J].经济地理,2013,33(9):93-100.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-8462.2013.09.015YANG J W,QIAO J J.Evolutionary characteristics and mechanism of Henan's industrial structure[J].Economic Geography,2013,33(9):93-100.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-8462.2013.09.015
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[7]王业雯.产业结构、消费结构与经济增长--基于广东省的实证分析[J].经济问题探索,2016(7):22-27.WANG Y W.Industrial structure,consumption structure and economic growth:Based on the empirical analysis of Guangdong[J].Inquiry into Economic Issues,2016(7):22-27.
[8]焦新颖,喻忠磊,高啸峰,等.基于空间分异视角的大都市区产业结构演进--以北京为例[J].经济地理,2016,36(8):56-63.DOI:10.15957/j.cnki.jjdl.2016.08.008JIAO X Y,YU Z L,GAO X F,et al.The evolution of industrial structure in metropolitan area based on spatial differentiation perspective-A case of Beijing[J].Economic Geography,2016,36(8):56-63.DOI:10.15957/j.cnki.jjdl.2016.08.008
[9]陈强强,邴芳,窦学诚,等.甘肃省产业转型升级测度及其经济效应[J].干旱区地理,2016,39(6):1365-1372.DOI:10.13826/j.cnki.cn65-1103/x.2016.06.027CHEN Q Q,BING F,DOU X C,et al.Measurement and economic effects of industrial transformation and upgrading in Gansu province[J].Arid Land Geography,2016,39(6):1365-1372.DOI:10.13826/j.cnki.cn65-1103/x.2016.06.027
[10]杜建军,刘学华,张军伟.长三角城市群产业结构的时空演变研究[J].经济问题探索,2016(9):166-171.DU J J,LIU X H,ZHANG J W.Spatial and temporal evolution of industrial structure of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomerations[J].Inquiry into Economic Issues,2016(9):166-171.
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[15]薛晴.资源开发、民间金融与产业结构转型升级--基于西部新兴资源富集地区的研究[J].统计与信息论坛,2015,30(5):63-68.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1007-3116.2015.05.013XUE Q.Resource exploration,folk finance and the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure:Study on the resource rich regions of west China[J].Statistics&Information Forum,2015,30(5):63-68.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1007-3116.2015.05.013
[16]郭佳,扶涛,杨青.我国西部地区产业结构转型升级影响因素分析--以云南省为例[J].中国社会科学院研究生院学报,2015(2):57-61.GUO J,FU T,YANG Q.Influencing factors and countermeasures of industrial structure transformation and upgrading in ethnic minority regions of western China:Taking Yunnan province as an example[J].Journal of Graduate school of Chinese Academy of Social Science,2015(2):57-61.
[17]杨瑞兰,文琦,李霞.资源型地区产业结构演进特征及影响因素分析--以榆林市为例[J].宁夏大学学报:自然科学版,2017,38(1):118-124.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.0253-2328.2017.01.022YANG R L,WEN Q,LI X.Analysis on regional industrial structure evolution character and influence factor:A case study of Yulin city[J].Journal of Ningxia University:Natural Science Edition,2017,38(1):118-124.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.0253-2328.2017.01.022
[18]刘英基,杜传忠,刘忠京.走向新常态的新兴经济体产业转型升级路径分析[J].经济体制改革,2015(1):117-121.LIU Y J,DU C Z,LIU Z J.Analysis to the industries transformation and upgrading path of emerging economies toward"The New Normal"[J].Reform of Economic System,2015(1):117-121.
[19]郭巍,许伟.世界三大城市产业转型路径[J].中国经济报告,2016(12):97-100.GUO W,XU W.The industries transformation and upgrading path of the world's three largest cities[J].China Policy Review,2016(12):97-100.
[20]陈妍,梅林.东北地区资源型城市经济转型发展波动特征与影响因素--基于面板数据模型的分析[J].地理科学,2017,37(7):1080-1086.DOI:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.07.013CHEN Y,MEI L.Cyclical characteristics and influential factors of resource-based cities’economy in Northeast China:Based on panel data model[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2017,37(7):1080-1086.DOI:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.07.013
[21]姜玉砚,焦斌龙.资源型区域产业结构演进与经济增长和波动的关系研究--以山西省为例[J].城市发展研究,2014,21(2):1-4.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1006-3862.2014.02.020JIANG Y Y,JIAO B L.A study on the relationship between industrial structure evolution and economic growth and fluctuation of resource-based area:A case study of Shanxi province[J].Urban Development Studies,2014,21(2):1-4.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1006-3862.2014.02.020
[22]文琦,焦旭娇,李佳.能源富集区内部经济发展时空演进格局特征--以陕西省榆林市为例[J].资源科学,2014,36(7):1392-1401.WEN Q,JIAO X J,LI J.Internal temporal-spatial structure characteristics and regional economic development in a resource-rich area:A case study of the Yulin city in Shaanxi province[J].Resources Science,2014,36(7):1392-1401.
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