近几年我国霾污染实时季节预测概要
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摘要
近些年,中国东部经历了严重的霾污染,对人体健康、交通安全、生态系统以及社会经济有巨大的危害。在1周以内的霾污染预报之外,季节尺度的霾污染预测可以给减排治污措施的制定提供更长时间尺度的科学支撑。本文以年际增量为预测对象,选取前期外强迫因子为自变量,分别针对京津冀和长三角区域建立逐月的冬季霾日数季节尺度预测模型,并开展了实时的季节预测。总体来看,京津冀和长三角区域预测模型的性能大体处于相似的水平,均方根误差在2 d左右,对距平符号的捕捉率在80%以上,对霾日数变化的长期趋势具有很好的再现能力。在2016/2017年冬季京津冀霾日数实时预测中,模型预测的结果相对于常年值的定性结论全部准确,相对于前一年污染状况的结论大多数准确。在2017/2018年冬季长三角霾日数实时预测中,12月和1月的预测误差较小,2月的预测误差在2 d左右。
In recent years, severe haze pollution has been damaging human health, traffic security, the ecosystem and social economy in eastern China.In addition to the haze forecast within 1 week, seasonal haze prediction provides scientific support for longer periods to the decisions of emission reduction.In this study, taking the annual increment as the predictand,monthly prediction models were trained for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Yangtze Delta regions.The performances of the built models were similar,with 2 days of root-mean-square error and a>80% simulation rate of the anomalies' mathematical sign.In the real-time seasonal prediction for Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei haze days in the winter of 2016, the results with respect to the climate mean( the previous year) were completely( mostly) accurate.During the winter of 2017, the predicted biases for the December and January haze days in the Yangtze River Delta were very small,and the bias of February was nearly 2 days.
In recent years, severe haze pollution has been damaging human health, traffic security, the ecosystem and social economy in eastern China.In addition to the haze forecast within 1 week, seasonal haze prediction provides scientific support for longer periods to the decisions of emission reduction.In this study, taking the annual increment as the predictand,monthly prediction models were trained for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Yangtze Delta regions.The performances of the built models were similar,with 2 days of root-mean-square error and a>80% simulation rate of the anomalies' mathematical sign.In the real-time seasonal prediction for Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei haze days in the winter of 2016, the results with respect to the climate mean( the previous year) were completely( mostly) accurate.During the winter of 2017, the predicted biases for the December and January haze days in the Yangtze River Delta were very small,and the bias of February was nearly 2 days.
引文
包云轩,邵艺,李迅,2018.基于MODIS的北京地区一次霾过程的能见度反演[J].大气科学学报,41(5)710-719.Bao Y X,Shao Y,Li X,2018.Visibility inversion of a haze process in Beijing by remote sensing based on MODIS satellite observations[J].Trans Atmos Sci,41(5):710-719.(in Chinese).
Chen S F,Guo J P,Song L Y,et al.,2018.Inter-annual variation of the spring haze pollution over the North China Plain:roles of atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature[J].Int J Climatol.
Chiang A Y,2007.Generalized additive models:an introduction with R[J].Technometrics,49(3):360-361.
丁一汇,柳艳菊,2014.近50年我国雾和霾的长期变化特征及其与大气湿度的关系[J].中国科学:地球科学,44(1):37-48.Ding Y H,Liu Y J,2014.Analysis of long-term variations of fog and haze in China in recent 50 years and their relations with atmospheric humidity[J].Science China:Earth Sciences,44(1):37-48.(in Chinese).
Fan K,Wang H J,2009.A new approach to forecasting typhoon frequency over the western North Pacific[J].Wea Forecasting,24(4):974-986.
Fan K,Wang H J,2010.Seasonal prediction of summer temperature over Northeast China using a year-to-year incremental approach[J].J Meteor Res,24(3):269-275.
Fan K,Tian B Q,2013.Prediction of wintertime heavy snow activity in Northeast China[J].Chin Sci Bull,58(12):1420-1426.
范可,林美静,高煜中,2008.用年际增量方法预测华北汛期降水[J].中国科学D辑:地球科学,38(11):1452-1456.Fan K,Lin M J,Gao Y Z,2008.Prediction of precipitation in flood season in North China by interannual increment method[J].Science in China Series D:Earth Sciences,38(11):1452-1459.(in Chinese).
Fan K,Wang H J,Choi Y J,2008.A physically-based statistical forecast model for the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River Valley summer rainfall[J].Chin Sci Bull,53(4):602-609.
Gao H,Li X,2015.Influences of El Ni1o Southern Oscillation events on haze frequency in eastern China during boreal winters[J].Int J Climatol,35(9):2682-2688.
关月,何立富,2013.2013年1月大气环流和天气分析[J].气象,39(4):531-536.Guan Y,He L F,2013.Analysis of the January 2013 atmospheric circulation and weather[J].Metror Mon,39(4):531-536.(in Chinese).
韩霄,张美根,2014.2013年1月华北平原重霾成因模拟分析[J].气候与环境研究,19(2):127-139.Han X,Zhang M G,2013.Model analysis of haze formation over the North China Plain in January 2013[J].Climatic Environ Res,19(2):127-139.(in Chinese).
Huang Y Y,Wang H J,Fan K,2014.Improving the prediction of the summer Asian-Pacific oscillation using the interannual increment approach[J].JClimate,27(21):8126-8134.
靳军莉,颜鹏,马志强,等,2014.北京及周边地区2013年1-3月PM2.5变化特征[J].应用气象学报,25(6):690-700.Jin J L,Yan P,Ma Z Q,2014.Characteristics of PM2.5 in Beijing and surrouding areas from January to March in 2013[J].J Appl Meteor Sci,25(6):690-700.(in Chinese).
Kalnay E,Kanamitsu M,Kistler R,et al.,1996.The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project[J].Bull Amer Meteor Soc,77(3):437-471.
Li S L,Han Z,Chen H P,2017.A comparison of the effects of interannual Arctic sea ice loss and ENSO on winter haze days:observational analyses and AGCM simulations[J].J Meteorol Res,31(5):820-833.
Liu J,Curry J A,Wang H,et al.,2012.Impact of declining Arctic sea ice on winter snowfall[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,109(11):4074-4079.
Mo K C,2000.Relationships between low-frequency variability in the Southern Hemisphere and sea surface temperature anomalies[J].J Climate,13(20):3599-3610.
Rayner N A,2003.Global analyses of sea surface temperature,sea ice,and night Marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century[J].J Geophys Res,108(D14):4407.
Smith T M,Reynolds R W,Peterson T C,et al.,2008.Improvements to NOAA's historical merged land-ocean surface temperature analysis(1880-2006)[J].J Climate,21(10):2283-2296.
Tian B Q,Fan K,Yang H Q,2018.East Asian winter monsoon forecasting schemes based on the NCEP's climate forecast system[J].Clim Dyn,51(7/8):2793-2805.
van den Dool H,2003.Performance and analysis of the constructed analogue method applied to US soil moisture over 1981-2001[J].J Geophys Res,108(D16):8617.
王博妮,濮梅娟,苗茜,2016.江苏地区连续性雾霾天气的污染物浓度变化和特征分析[J].大气科学学报,39(2):243-252.Wang B N,Pu M J,Miao Q,2016.Analysis of the characteristics and variation of pollutant concentrations for a long-lasting fog and haze event in the Jiangsu area[J].Trans Atmos Sci,39(2):243-252.(in Chinese).
Wang H J,Zhou G Q,Yan Z,2000.An effective method for correcting the seasonal:interannual prediction of summer climate anomaly[J].Adv Atmos Sci,17(2):234-240.
王会军,孙建奇,郎咸梅,等,2008.几年来我国气候年际变异和短期气候预测研究的一些新成果[J].大气科学,32(4):806-814.Wang H J,Sun J Q,Lang X M,et al.,2008.Some new results in the research of the interannual climate variability and short-term climate prediction[J].Chin J Atmos Sci,32(4):806-814.(in Chinese).
王会军,范可,郎咸梅,等,2012.中国短期气候预测的新理论、新方法和新技术[M].北京:气象出版社:226.Wang H J,Fan K,Lang X M,2012.New theory,method and new technology for short-term climate prediction in China[M].Beijing:Meteorological Press:226.(in Chinese).
Wang H J,Chen H P,Liu J P,2015a.Arctic sea ice decline intensified haze pollution in eastern China[J].Atmos Oceanic Sci Lett,8(1):1-9.
Wang H J,Fan K,Sun J Q,et al.,2015b.A review of seasonal climate prediction research in China[J].Adv Atmos Sci,32(2):149-168.
王会军,尹志聪,孙建奇,等,2017a.关于2017年1-2月京津冀霾污染趋势预测展望[R]//中国科学院院士建议.北京:中国科学院学部工作局.Wang H J,Yin Z C,Sun J Q,et al.,2017a.Prospects for haze pollution trend prediction in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei from January to February2017[R]//Proposal by Academicians of the Chinese Academy of Sciences.Beijing:Bureau of the Academy of Sciences,Chinese Academy of Sciences.(in Chinese).
王会军等院士和专家,2017b.关于2017年冬季京津冀和长三角区域霾污染趋势的预测展望[R]//中国科学院院士建议.北京:中国科学院学部工作局.Wang H J and other academicians and experts,2017b.Forecast and prospect of haze pollution trend in Beijing,Tianjin,Hebei and Yangtze River Delta Region in Winter 2017[R]//Proposal by Academicians of the Chinese Academy of Sciences.Beijing:Bureau of the Academy of Sciences,Chinese Academy of Sciences.(in Chinese).
Xiao D,Li Y,Fan S J,et al.,2015.Plausible influence of Atlantic Ocean SST anomalies on winter haze in China[J].Theor Appl Climatol,122(1/2):249-257.
徐祥德,王寅钧,赵天良,等,2015.中国大地形东侧霾空间分布“避风港”效应及其“气候调节”影响下的年代际变异[J].科学通报,60(12):1132-1145.Xu X D,Wang Y J,Zhao T L,et al.,2015.“Harbor”effect of large topography on haze distribution in eastern China and its climate modulation on decadal variations in haze[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,60(12):1132-1145.(in Chinese).
尹志聪,袁东敏,丁德平,等,2014.香山红叶变色日气象统计预测方法研究[J].气象,40(2):229-233.Yin Z C,Yuan D M,Ding D P,et al.,2014.Statistical prediction based on meteorology of cotinus coggygria leaves discoloration-day in the fragrant hill[J].Meteor Mon,40(2):229-233.(in Chinese).
Yin Z C,Wang H J,2016a.The relationship between the subtropical western Pacific SST and haze over north-central north China Plain[J].Int J Climatol,36(10):3479-3491.
Yin Z C,Wang H J,2016b.Seasonal prediction of winter haze days in the north-central North China Plain[J].Atmos Chem Phys,16(23):14843-14852.
Yin Z C,Wang H J,2017.Statistical prediction of winter haze days in the north China Plain using the generalized additive model[J].J Appl Meteor Climatol,56(9):2411-2419.
Yin Z C,Wang H J,2018.The strengthening relationship between Eurasian snow cover and December haze days in central North China after the mid-1990s[J].Atmos Chem Phys,18(7):4753-4763.
Yin Z C,Wang H J,Chen H P,2017.Understanding severe winter haze events in the North China Plain in 2014:roles of climate anomalies[J].Atmos Chem Phys,17(3):1641-1651.
Yin Z C,Li Y Y,Wang H J,2019.Response of early winter haze days in the North China plain to autumn Beaufort sea ice[J].Atmos Chem Phys.doi:10.5194/acp-2018-783.
袁东敏,马小会,2017.2016年12月16-21日重度霾过程及大气环流异常[J].气候与环境研究,22(6):757-764.Yuan D M,Ma X H,2017.The severe haze process in 16-21 December 2016 and associated atmospheric circulation anomalies[J].Climatic Environ Res,22(6):757-764.(in Chinese).
张金良,高健,刘喆,等,2014.2013年灰霾事件及其对北京市医院成人门急诊量影响的描述性研究[J].环境与健康杂志,31(10):853-859.Zhang J L,Gao J,Liu J,2014.The descriptive study on the effect of haze episode on adult daily counts of outpatient and emergenc[J].Journal of Environment and Health,31(10):853-859.(in Chinese).
Zhang Q Q,Ma Q,Zhao B,et al.,2018.Winter haze over North China Plain from 2009 to 2016:influence of emission and meteorology[J].Environmental Pollution,242:1308-1318.
Zhang R H,Li Q,Zhang R N,2014.Meteorological conditions for the persistent severe fog and haze event over eastern China in January 2013[J].Sci China Earth Sci,57(1):26-35.
张小曳,孙俊英,王亚强,等,2013.中国雾霾成因及其治理的思考[J].科学通报,58(13):1178-1187.Zhang X Y,Sun J Y,Wang Y Q,et al.,2013.Consideration on the causes of fog and haze in China and its control[J].Chin Sci Bull,58(13):1178-1187.(in Chinese).
Zhao S,Li J P,Sun C,2016.Decadal variability in the occurrence of wintertime haze in central eastern China tied to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation[J].Sci Rep,6:27424.Zhao S Y,Zhang H,Xie B,2018.The effects of El Ni1o-Southern Oscillation on the winter haze pollution of China[J].Atmos Chem Phys,18(3):1863-1877.
郑龙飞,谢郁宁,刘强,等,2016.南京地区2013年12月重霾污染事件成因分析[J].大气科学学报,39(4):546-553.Zheng L F,Xie Y N,Liu Q,et al.,2016.Heavy haze events during December 2013 in Nanjing[J].Trans Atmos Sci,39(4):546-553.(in Chinese).
Zhou M Z,Wang H J,2014.Late winter sea ice in the Bering Sea:predictor for maize and rice production in Northeast China[J].J Appl Meteor Climatol,53(5):1183-1192.
Chen S F,Guo J P,Song L Y,et al.,2018.Inter-annual variation of the spring haze pollution over the North China Plain:roles of atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature[J].Int J Climatol.
Chiang A Y,2007.Generalized additive models:an introduction with R[J].Technometrics,49(3):360-361.
丁一汇,柳艳菊,2014.近50年我国雾和霾的长期变化特征及其与大气湿度的关系[J].中国科学:地球科学,44(1):37-48.Ding Y H,Liu Y J,2014.Analysis of long-term variations of fog and haze in China in recent 50 years and their relations with atmospheric humidity[J].Science China:Earth Sciences,44(1):37-48.(in Chinese).
Fan K,Wang H J,2009.A new approach to forecasting typhoon frequency over the western North Pacific[J].Wea Forecasting,24(4):974-986.
Fan K,Wang H J,2010.Seasonal prediction of summer temperature over Northeast China using a year-to-year incremental approach[J].J Meteor Res,24(3):269-275.
Fan K,Tian B Q,2013.Prediction of wintertime heavy snow activity in Northeast China[J].Chin Sci Bull,58(12):1420-1426.
范可,林美静,高煜中,2008.用年际增量方法预测华北汛期降水[J].中国科学D辑:地球科学,38(11):1452-1456.Fan K,Lin M J,Gao Y Z,2008.Prediction of precipitation in flood season in North China by interannual increment method[J].Science in China Series D:Earth Sciences,38(11):1452-1459.(in Chinese).
Fan K,Wang H J,Choi Y J,2008.A physically-based statistical forecast model for the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River Valley summer rainfall[J].Chin Sci Bull,53(4):602-609.
Gao H,Li X,2015.Influences of El Ni1o Southern Oscillation events on haze frequency in eastern China during boreal winters[J].Int J Climatol,35(9):2682-2688.
关月,何立富,2013.2013年1月大气环流和天气分析[J].气象,39(4):531-536.Guan Y,He L F,2013.Analysis of the January 2013 atmospheric circulation and weather[J].Metror Mon,39(4):531-536.(in Chinese).
韩霄,张美根,2014.2013年1月华北平原重霾成因模拟分析[J].气候与环境研究,19(2):127-139.Han X,Zhang M G,2013.Model analysis of haze formation over the North China Plain in January 2013[J].Climatic Environ Res,19(2):127-139.(in Chinese).
Huang Y Y,Wang H J,Fan K,2014.Improving the prediction of the summer Asian-Pacific oscillation using the interannual increment approach[J].JClimate,27(21):8126-8134.
靳军莉,颜鹏,马志强,等,2014.北京及周边地区2013年1-3月PM2.5变化特征[J].应用气象学报,25(6):690-700.Jin J L,Yan P,Ma Z Q,2014.Characteristics of PM2.5 in Beijing and surrouding areas from January to March in 2013[J].J Appl Meteor Sci,25(6):690-700.(in Chinese).
Kalnay E,Kanamitsu M,Kistler R,et al.,1996.The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project[J].Bull Amer Meteor Soc,77(3):437-471.
Li S L,Han Z,Chen H P,2017.A comparison of the effects of interannual Arctic sea ice loss and ENSO on winter haze days:observational analyses and AGCM simulations[J].J Meteorol Res,31(5):820-833.
Liu J,Curry J A,Wang H,et al.,2012.Impact of declining Arctic sea ice on winter snowfall[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,109(11):4074-4079.
Mo K C,2000.Relationships between low-frequency variability in the Southern Hemisphere and sea surface temperature anomalies[J].J Climate,13(20):3599-3610.
Rayner N A,2003.Global analyses of sea surface temperature,sea ice,and night Marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century[J].J Geophys Res,108(D14):4407.
Smith T M,Reynolds R W,Peterson T C,et al.,2008.Improvements to NOAA's historical merged land-ocean surface temperature analysis(1880-2006)[J].J Climate,21(10):2283-2296.
Tian B Q,Fan K,Yang H Q,2018.East Asian winter monsoon forecasting schemes based on the NCEP's climate forecast system[J].Clim Dyn,51(7/8):2793-2805.
van den Dool H,2003.Performance and analysis of the constructed analogue method applied to US soil moisture over 1981-2001[J].J Geophys Res,108(D16):8617.
王博妮,濮梅娟,苗茜,2016.江苏地区连续性雾霾天气的污染物浓度变化和特征分析[J].大气科学学报,39(2):243-252.Wang B N,Pu M J,Miao Q,2016.Analysis of the characteristics and variation of pollutant concentrations for a long-lasting fog and haze event in the Jiangsu area[J].Trans Atmos Sci,39(2):243-252.(in Chinese).
Wang H J,Zhou G Q,Yan Z,2000.An effective method for correcting the seasonal:interannual prediction of summer climate anomaly[J].Adv Atmos Sci,17(2):234-240.
王会军,孙建奇,郎咸梅,等,2008.几年来我国气候年际变异和短期气候预测研究的一些新成果[J].大气科学,32(4):806-814.Wang H J,Sun J Q,Lang X M,et al.,2008.Some new results in the research of the interannual climate variability and short-term climate prediction[J].Chin J Atmos Sci,32(4):806-814.(in Chinese).
王会军,范可,郎咸梅,等,2012.中国短期气候预测的新理论、新方法和新技术[M].北京:气象出版社:226.Wang H J,Fan K,Lang X M,2012.New theory,method and new technology for short-term climate prediction in China[M].Beijing:Meteorological Press:226.(in Chinese).
Wang H J,Chen H P,Liu J P,2015a.Arctic sea ice decline intensified haze pollution in eastern China[J].Atmos Oceanic Sci Lett,8(1):1-9.
Wang H J,Fan K,Sun J Q,et al.,2015b.A review of seasonal climate prediction research in China[J].Adv Atmos Sci,32(2):149-168.
王会军,尹志聪,孙建奇,等,2017a.关于2017年1-2月京津冀霾污染趋势预测展望[R]//中国科学院院士建议.北京:中国科学院学部工作局.Wang H J,Yin Z C,Sun J Q,et al.,2017a.Prospects for haze pollution trend prediction in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei from January to February2017[R]//Proposal by Academicians of the Chinese Academy of Sciences.Beijing:Bureau of the Academy of Sciences,Chinese Academy of Sciences.(in Chinese).
王会军等院士和专家,2017b.关于2017年冬季京津冀和长三角区域霾污染趋势的预测展望[R]//中国科学院院士建议.北京:中国科学院学部工作局.Wang H J and other academicians and experts,2017b.Forecast and prospect of haze pollution trend in Beijing,Tianjin,Hebei and Yangtze River Delta Region in Winter 2017[R]//Proposal by Academicians of the Chinese Academy of Sciences.Beijing:Bureau of the Academy of Sciences,Chinese Academy of Sciences.(in Chinese).
Xiao D,Li Y,Fan S J,et al.,2015.Plausible influence of Atlantic Ocean SST anomalies on winter haze in China[J].Theor Appl Climatol,122(1/2):249-257.
徐祥德,王寅钧,赵天良,等,2015.中国大地形东侧霾空间分布“避风港”效应及其“气候调节”影响下的年代际变异[J].科学通报,60(12):1132-1145.Xu X D,Wang Y J,Zhao T L,et al.,2015.“Harbor”effect of large topography on haze distribution in eastern China and its climate modulation on decadal variations in haze[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,60(12):1132-1145.(in Chinese).
尹志聪,袁东敏,丁德平,等,2014.香山红叶变色日气象统计预测方法研究[J].气象,40(2):229-233.Yin Z C,Yuan D M,Ding D P,et al.,2014.Statistical prediction based on meteorology of cotinus coggygria leaves discoloration-day in the fragrant hill[J].Meteor Mon,40(2):229-233.(in Chinese).
Yin Z C,Wang H J,2016a.The relationship between the subtropical western Pacific SST and haze over north-central north China Plain[J].Int J Climatol,36(10):3479-3491.
Yin Z C,Wang H J,2016b.Seasonal prediction of winter haze days in the north-central North China Plain[J].Atmos Chem Phys,16(23):14843-14852.
Yin Z C,Wang H J,2017.Statistical prediction of winter haze days in the north China Plain using the generalized additive model[J].J Appl Meteor Climatol,56(9):2411-2419.
Yin Z C,Wang H J,2018.The strengthening relationship between Eurasian snow cover and December haze days in central North China after the mid-1990s[J].Atmos Chem Phys,18(7):4753-4763.
Yin Z C,Wang H J,Chen H P,2017.Understanding severe winter haze events in the North China Plain in 2014:roles of climate anomalies[J].Atmos Chem Phys,17(3):1641-1651.
Yin Z C,Li Y Y,Wang H J,2019.Response of early winter haze days in the North China plain to autumn Beaufort sea ice[J].Atmos Chem Phys.doi:10.5194/acp-2018-783.
袁东敏,马小会,2017.2016年12月16-21日重度霾过程及大气环流异常[J].气候与环境研究,22(6):757-764.Yuan D M,Ma X H,2017.The severe haze process in 16-21 December 2016 and associated atmospheric circulation anomalies[J].Climatic Environ Res,22(6):757-764.(in Chinese).
张金良,高健,刘喆,等,2014.2013年灰霾事件及其对北京市医院成人门急诊量影响的描述性研究[J].环境与健康杂志,31(10):853-859.Zhang J L,Gao J,Liu J,2014.The descriptive study on the effect of haze episode on adult daily counts of outpatient and emergenc[J].Journal of Environment and Health,31(10):853-859.(in Chinese).
Zhang Q Q,Ma Q,Zhao B,et al.,2018.Winter haze over North China Plain from 2009 to 2016:influence of emission and meteorology[J].Environmental Pollution,242:1308-1318.
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