一种基于AHP-E模型的多因子农药残留污染综合评价方法
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摘要
为了能对某地区不同农产品受农药残留污染程度以及不同时间段受农药残留污染程度进行综合定量评价,提出一种基于层次分析法和熵值法AHP-E模型的多因子农药残留污染综合评价方法。该方法首先根据农药残留侦测结果,综合考虑农药毒性、检出频次、检出含量、超标情况多方面因素,选择评价因子;然后应用层次分析法对不同农产品受农药残留污染的程度进行评价,用熵值法对不同时间段受农残污染的程度进行评价。以2013年3月至6月A市6种农产品中农药残留侦测结果为例进行案例研究,对6种农产品受农残污染程度从高到低排序发现,按农残检出率和超标率两个单因子评价指标进行排序的结果分别为黄瓜、苹果、番茄、青椒、芹菜、韭菜和芹菜、韭菜、黄瓜、苹果、番茄、青椒;而用本文综合评价方法计算得出的排序结果为韭菜、芹菜、黄瓜、青椒、番茄、苹果。对不同时间段受农残污染程度进行排序发现,按农残检出率和超标率单指标进行排序的结果均为5月、4月、3月、6月,与本文方法的排序结果一致。对比单因子和多因子评价排序结果发现他们既有联系又有差异,造成差异的原因是单属性评价方法考虑因素单一,而本文提出的综合评价模型能较全面反映农药残留的污染情况,并有效突出不同农产品之间农药残留污染程度的差距。
To evaluate the degree of pesticide residue pollution in different agricultural products and over different time periods, a comprehensive evaluation method based on the analytic hierarchy process(AHP)-entropy(E)model for pesticide residue pollution was proposed.With this method, the evaluation factors were first selected from the results of pesticide residue detection, in which many factors, includingpesticide toxicity, the frequency of which pesticides were detected, the pesticide content, and the level of exceeding the MRL(Maximum Res?idue Limit), were considered. Then, the AHP was applied to assess the degree of pesticide residue pollution in different agricultural prod?ucts, and the entropy method was applied to assess the degree of pesticide residue pollution over different time periods. The case study usedin this study was from the results of pesticide residue detection on six agricultural products in City A from March to June in 2013. For the de?gree of pesticide residue pollution in the different agricultural products, the ranking of results from higher to lower by two factors,i.e., the de?tection rate of pesticide residue and the rate of exceedance of the MRL, were cucumber, apple, tomato, green pepper, celery, leek, and cel?ery, leek, cucumber, apple, tomato, green pepper, respectively. However, the ranking of results from higher to lower by the comprehensiveevaluation value proposed by this study was leek, celery, cucumber, green pepper, tomato, apple. For the degree of pesticide residue pollu?tion over different time periods,the ranking of results from higher to lower by both the pesticide residue detection rate and the rate of exceed?ing the MRL were May, April, March, and June, the ranking of results by the method of this study is also the same with evaluation result bythe single-factor. Comparing above ranking results by single-factor and multi-factor evaluation, the same and different aspects were found.The reason for the discrepancy was that the evaluation method based on a single factor had limitations in terms of the completeness of evalua?tion. Our evaluation model in this study can evaluate the degree of pesticide residue pollution more comprehensively and effectively, and can highlight the difference in degree of pesticide residue pollution among different agricultural products.
To evaluate the degree of pesticide residue pollution in different agricultural products and over different time periods, a comprehensive evaluation method based on the analytic hierarchy process(AHP)-entropy(E)model for pesticide residue pollution was proposed.With this method, the evaluation factors were first selected from the results of pesticide residue detection, in which many factors, includingpesticide toxicity, the frequency of which pesticides were detected, the pesticide content, and the level of exceeding the MRL(Maximum Res?idue Limit), were considered. Then, the AHP was applied to assess the degree of pesticide residue pollution in different agricultural prod?ucts, and the entropy method was applied to assess the degree of pesticide residue pollution over different time periods. The case study usedin this study was from the results of pesticide residue detection on six agricultural products in City A from March to June in 2013. For the de?gree of pesticide residue pollution in the different agricultural products, the ranking of results from higher to lower by two factors,i.e., the de?tection rate of pesticide residue and the rate of exceedance of the MRL, were cucumber, apple, tomato, green pepper, celery, leek, and cel?ery, leek, cucumber, apple, tomato, green pepper, respectively. However, the ranking of results from higher to lower by the comprehensiveevaluation value proposed by this study was leek, celery, cucumber, green pepper, tomato, apple. For the degree of pesticide residue pollu?tion over different time periods,the ranking of results from higher to lower by both the pesticide residue detection rate and the rate of exceed?ing the MRL were May, April, March, and June, the ranking of results by the method of this study is also the same with evaluation result bythe single-factor. Comparing above ranking results by single-factor and multi-factor evaluation, the same and different aspects were found.The reason for the discrepancy was that the evaluation method based on a single factor had limitations in terms of the completeness of evalua?tion. Our evaluation model in this study can evaluate the degree of pesticide residue pollution more comprehensively and effectively, and can highlight the difference in degree of pesticide residue pollution among different agricultural products.
引文
[1]Szpyrka E,slowik-Borowiec M,Matyaszek A,et al.Pesticide residues in raw agricultural products from the south-eastern region of Poland and the acute risk assessment[J].Roczniki Panstwowego Zakladu Higieny,2016,67(3):237-245.
[2]孔志强.农产品加工及储存过程中农药残留变化规律研究[D].北京:中国农业科学院,2012.KONG Zhi-qiang.Fate of pesticide residues in edible agricultural products by food processing and storage[D].Beijing:Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,2012.
[3]Rekha,Naik S N,Prasad R.Pesticide residue in organic and conventional food-risk analysis[J].Journal of Chemical Health and Safety,2006,13(6):12-19.
[4]刘文,云振宇,王乃铝,等.我国与国际食品法典委员会(CAC)食品中农药最大残留限量标准的对比分析研究[J].食品工业科技,2009,30(6):380-382.LIU Wen,YUN Zhen-yu,WANG Nai-lü,et al.Study on comparison and analysis on standards of pesticide maximum residue limits in food between international codex alimentarius commission and China national standards[J].Science and Technology of Food Industry,2009,30(6):380-382.
[5]国家卫生和计划生育委员会,中华人民共和国农业部,国家食品药品监督管理总局.食品安全国家标准--食品中农药最大残留限量GB 2763-2016[S].北京:2016.National Healthy and Family Planning Commission of PRC,Then Ministry of Agriculture of the People′s Republic of China,China Food and Drug Administration.National food safety standard:Maximum residue limits for pesticides in food(GB 2763-2016)[S].Beijing:2016.
[6]宋稳成,单炜力,叶纪明,等.国内外农药最大残留限量标准现状与发展趋势[J].农药学学报,2009,11(4):414-420.SONG Wen-cheng,SHAN Wei-li,YE Ji-ming,et al.Present situation and development trend of MRLs for pesticides in and outside China[J].Chinese Journal of Pesticide Science,2009,11(4):414-420.
[7]庞国芳,常巧英,范春林.农药残留监测技术研究与监控体系构建展望[J].中国科学院院刊,2017,32(10):1083-1090.PANG Guo-fang,CHANG Qiao-ying,FAN Chun-lin.Prospects for research of pesticide residue monitoring technique and construction of monitoring systems[J].Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences,2017,32(10):1083-1090.
[8]李志霞,聂继云,闫震,等.果品主要真菌毒素污染检测、风险评估与控制研究进展[J].中国农业科学,2017,50(2):332-347.LI Zhi-xia,NIE Ji-yun,YAN Zhen,et al.Progress in research of detection,risk assessment and control of the mycotoxins in fruits and fruit products[J].Scientia Agricultura Sinica,2017,50(2):332-347.
[9]宫春波,王朝霞,董峰光.烟台市售茶叶中12种农药残留的监测及其健康风险评价[J].食品安全质量检测学报,2017,8(11):4491-4495.GONG Chun-bo,WANG Zhao-xia,DONG Feng-guang.Monitoring and risk assessment of 12 kinds of pesticide residues in tea samples sold in Yantai[J].Journal of Food Safety and Quality,2017,8(11):4491-4495.
[10]李俊辉,梁先龙,宋晓婉,等.2017上半年安徽省部分地区批发市场蔬菜农药残留和风险评估分析[J].安徽农业科学,2017,45(30):83-85.LI Jun-hui,LIANG Xian-long,SONG Xiao-wan,et al.Analysis of vegetable pesticide residues and risk assessment in wholesale market of parts of Anhui Province in the first half of 2017[J].Journal of Anhui Agricultural Science,2017,45(30):83-85.
[11]靳欣欣,潘立刚,李安,等.河北省梨主产区梨果农药残留风险研究[J].食品安全质量检测学报,2015,6(5):1683-1690.JIN Xin-xin,PAN Li-gang,LI An,et al.Risk estimation of pesticide residues in pear in Hebei Province[J].Journal of Food Safety and Quality,2015,6(5):1683-1690.
[12]庞国芳,陈谊,范春林,等.高分辨质谱-互联网-数据科学三元融合技术构建农药残留侦测技术平台[J].中国科学院院刊,2017,32(12):1384-1396.PANG Guo-fang,CHEN Yi,FAN Chun-lin,et al.Tri-element integrated technology of high resolution MS,internet,and digital science constitutes technical platform for pesticide residues[J].Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences,2017,32(12):1384-1396.
[13]向甦州,王富华,杜应琼,等.深圳市销售领域蔬菜农药残留调查与评价[J].广东农业科学,2012,39(13):225-228.XIANG Su-zhou,WANG Fu-hua,DU Ying-qiong,et al.Investigate and assessment on pesticide residues on vegetables in Shenzhen City[J].Guangdong Agricultural Sciences,2012,39(13):225-228.
[14]Ahmed M,Mamun M S A.Organic pollutants in food:Current status of pesticide residues in Bangladesh tea[C].Seminar on Organic Pollutants in Food,Agricultural Products and Environment,Sweden:University of Dhaka and Uppsala University,2012:141-148.
[15]Reichstein I,Healy K,James A,et al.Australian national residue survey-closing the loop on pesticide residue risk management for Australian grain[J].Julius-Kühn-Archiv,2010,425:888-893.
[16]张福金,张欣昕,李国银,等.近十年内蒙古产地蔬菜农药残留状况及规律性分析[J].中国蔬菜,2013(14):81-87.ZHANG Fu-jin,ZHANG Xin-xin,LI Guo-yin,et al.Status of pesticide residue and regulation analysis in vegetables produced in Inner Mongolia during the past decade[J].China Vegetables,2013(14):81-87.
[17]王冬群,韩敏晖,陆宏,等.慈溪市蔬菜农药残留时空变化及质量安全风险评估[J].浙江农业学报,2009,21(6):609-613.WANG Dong-qun,HAN Min-hui,LU Hong,et al.The temporal-spatial dynamic changes of pesticide residues in vegetables and the risk evaluation of the vegetable quality and safety in Cixi City[J].Acta Agricultural Zhejiangnsis,2009,21(6):609-613.
[18]宋靖宇,曹楚瑾,高鑫涛,等.武汉市某市场蔬菜农药残留的时序变化及其特征[J].职业与健康,2016,32(4):490-493.SONG Jing-yu,CAO Chu-jin,GAO Xin-tao,et al.Temporal variation and characteristics of pesticide residue in vegetable in a market of Wuhan City[J].Occup and Health,2016,32(4):490-493.
[19]Jean S,Benoit M,Bosco T J,et al.Contamination of cowpea and byproducts by organophosphorous pesticide residues in Ngaoundere markets:Dietary risk estimation and degradation study[J].African Journal of Food Science,2013,7(5):92-102.
[20]Tscheikner-Gratl F,Egger P,Rauch W,et al.Comparison of multicriteria decision support methods for integrated rehabilitation prioritization[J].Water,2017,9(2):68.
[21]陈谊,刘莹,陈星如,等.基于可视分析的农药残留污染仿真评估方法[J].计算机仿真,2017,34(10):347-351.CHEN Yi,LIU Ying,CHEN Xing-ru,et al.Simulation and evaluation method for pesticide residue pollution based on visual analysis techniques[J].Computer Simulation,2017,34(10):347-351.
[22]杜栋,庞庆华,吴炎.现代综合评价方法与案例精选[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2015:3-8.DU Dong,PANG Qing-hua,WU Yan.Modern comprehensive evaluation methods and case selection[M].Beijing:Tsinghua University Press,2015:3-8.
[23]邓雪,李家铭,曾浩健,等.层次分析法权重计算方法分析及其应用研究[J].数学的实践与认识,2012,42(7):93-100.DENG Xue,LI Jia-ming,ZENG Hao-jian,et al.Research on computation methods of AHP wight vector and its application[J].Mathematics in Practice and Theory,2012,42(7):93-100.
[24]陈华友.熵值法及其在确定组合预测权系数中的应用[J].安徽大学学报(自科版),2003,27(4):1-6.CHEN Hua-you.Entropy method and application to determine weights of combination forecasting[J].Journal of Anhui University Natural Science Edition,2003,27(4):1-6.
[25]Liang J,Shi Z,Li D,et al.Information entropy,rough entropy and knowledge granulation in incomplete information systems[J].International Journal of General Systems,2006,35(6):641-654.
[2]孔志强.农产品加工及储存过程中农药残留变化规律研究[D].北京:中国农业科学院,2012.KONG Zhi-qiang.Fate of pesticide residues in edible agricultural products by food processing and storage[D].Beijing:Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,2012.
[3]Rekha,Naik S N,Prasad R.Pesticide residue in organic and conventional food-risk analysis[J].Journal of Chemical Health and Safety,2006,13(6):12-19.
[4]刘文,云振宇,王乃铝,等.我国与国际食品法典委员会(CAC)食品中农药最大残留限量标准的对比分析研究[J].食品工业科技,2009,30(6):380-382.LIU Wen,YUN Zhen-yu,WANG Nai-lü,et al.Study on comparison and analysis on standards of pesticide maximum residue limits in food between international codex alimentarius commission and China national standards[J].Science and Technology of Food Industry,2009,30(6):380-382.
[5]国家卫生和计划生育委员会,中华人民共和国农业部,国家食品药品监督管理总局.食品安全国家标准--食品中农药最大残留限量GB 2763-2016[S].北京:2016.National Healthy and Family Planning Commission of PRC,Then Ministry of Agriculture of the People′s Republic of China,China Food and Drug Administration.National food safety standard:Maximum residue limits for pesticides in food(GB 2763-2016)[S].Beijing:2016.
[6]宋稳成,单炜力,叶纪明,等.国内外农药最大残留限量标准现状与发展趋势[J].农药学学报,2009,11(4):414-420.SONG Wen-cheng,SHAN Wei-li,YE Ji-ming,et al.Present situation and development trend of MRLs for pesticides in and outside China[J].Chinese Journal of Pesticide Science,2009,11(4):414-420.
[7]庞国芳,常巧英,范春林.农药残留监测技术研究与监控体系构建展望[J].中国科学院院刊,2017,32(10):1083-1090.PANG Guo-fang,CHANG Qiao-ying,FAN Chun-lin.Prospects for research of pesticide residue monitoring technique and construction of monitoring systems[J].Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences,2017,32(10):1083-1090.
[8]李志霞,聂继云,闫震,等.果品主要真菌毒素污染检测、风险评估与控制研究进展[J].中国农业科学,2017,50(2):332-347.LI Zhi-xia,NIE Ji-yun,YAN Zhen,et al.Progress in research of detection,risk assessment and control of the mycotoxins in fruits and fruit products[J].Scientia Agricultura Sinica,2017,50(2):332-347.
[9]宫春波,王朝霞,董峰光.烟台市售茶叶中12种农药残留的监测及其健康风险评价[J].食品安全质量检测学报,2017,8(11):4491-4495.GONG Chun-bo,WANG Zhao-xia,DONG Feng-guang.Monitoring and risk assessment of 12 kinds of pesticide residues in tea samples sold in Yantai[J].Journal of Food Safety and Quality,2017,8(11):4491-4495.
[10]李俊辉,梁先龙,宋晓婉,等.2017上半年安徽省部分地区批发市场蔬菜农药残留和风险评估分析[J].安徽农业科学,2017,45(30):83-85.LI Jun-hui,LIANG Xian-long,SONG Xiao-wan,et al.Analysis of vegetable pesticide residues and risk assessment in wholesale market of parts of Anhui Province in the first half of 2017[J].Journal of Anhui Agricultural Science,2017,45(30):83-85.
[11]靳欣欣,潘立刚,李安,等.河北省梨主产区梨果农药残留风险研究[J].食品安全质量检测学报,2015,6(5):1683-1690.JIN Xin-xin,PAN Li-gang,LI An,et al.Risk estimation of pesticide residues in pear in Hebei Province[J].Journal of Food Safety and Quality,2015,6(5):1683-1690.
[12]庞国芳,陈谊,范春林,等.高分辨质谱-互联网-数据科学三元融合技术构建农药残留侦测技术平台[J].中国科学院院刊,2017,32(12):1384-1396.PANG Guo-fang,CHEN Yi,FAN Chun-lin,et al.Tri-element integrated technology of high resolution MS,internet,and digital science constitutes technical platform for pesticide residues[J].Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences,2017,32(12):1384-1396.
[13]向甦州,王富华,杜应琼,等.深圳市销售领域蔬菜农药残留调查与评价[J].广东农业科学,2012,39(13):225-228.XIANG Su-zhou,WANG Fu-hua,DU Ying-qiong,et al.Investigate and assessment on pesticide residues on vegetables in Shenzhen City[J].Guangdong Agricultural Sciences,2012,39(13):225-228.
[14]Ahmed M,Mamun M S A.Organic pollutants in food:Current status of pesticide residues in Bangladesh tea[C].Seminar on Organic Pollutants in Food,Agricultural Products and Environment,Sweden:University of Dhaka and Uppsala University,2012:141-148.
[15]Reichstein I,Healy K,James A,et al.Australian national residue survey-closing the loop on pesticide residue risk management for Australian grain[J].Julius-Kühn-Archiv,2010,425:888-893.
[16]张福金,张欣昕,李国银,等.近十年内蒙古产地蔬菜农药残留状况及规律性分析[J].中国蔬菜,2013(14):81-87.ZHANG Fu-jin,ZHANG Xin-xin,LI Guo-yin,et al.Status of pesticide residue and regulation analysis in vegetables produced in Inner Mongolia during the past decade[J].China Vegetables,2013(14):81-87.
[17]王冬群,韩敏晖,陆宏,等.慈溪市蔬菜农药残留时空变化及质量安全风险评估[J].浙江农业学报,2009,21(6):609-613.WANG Dong-qun,HAN Min-hui,LU Hong,et al.The temporal-spatial dynamic changes of pesticide residues in vegetables and the risk evaluation of the vegetable quality and safety in Cixi City[J].Acta Agricultural Zhejiangnsis,2009,21(6):609-613.
[18]宋靖宇,曹楚瑾,高鑫涛,等.武汉市某市场蔬菜农药残留的时序变化及其特征[J].职业与健康,2016,32(4):490-493.SONG Jing-yu,CAO Chu-jin,GAO Xin-tao,et al.Temporal variation and characteristics of pesticide residue in vegetable in a market of Wuhan City[J].Occup and Health,2016,32(4):490-493.
[19]Jean S,Benoit M,Bosco T J,et al.Contamination of cowpea and byproducts by organophosphorous pesticide residues in Ngaoundere markets:Dietary risk estimation and degradation study[J].African Journal of Food Science,2013,7(5):92-102.
[20]Tscheikner-Gratl F,Egger P,Rauch W,et al.Comparison of multicriteria decision support methods for integrated rehabilitation prioritization[J].Water,2017,9(2):68.
[21]陈谊,刘莹,陈星如,等.基于可视分析的农药残留污染仿真评估方法[J].计算机仿真,2017,34(10):347-351.CHEN Yi,LIU Ying,CHEN Xing-ru,et al.Simulation and evaluation method for pesticide residue pollution based on visual analysis techniques[J].Computer Simulation,2017,34(10):347-351.
[22]杜栋,庞庆华,吴炎.现代综合评价方法与案例精选[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2015:3-8.DU Dong,PANG Qing-hua,WU Yan.Modern comprehensive evaluation methods and case selection[M].Beijing:Tsinghua University Press,2015:3-8.
[23]邓雪,李家铭,曾浩健,等.层次分析法权重计算方法分析及其应用研究[J].数学的实践与认识,2012,42(7):93-100.DENG Xue,LI Jia-ming,ZENG Hao-jian,et al.Research on computation methods of AHP wight vector and its application[J].Mathematics in Practice and Theory,2012,42(7):93-100.
[24]陈华友.熵值法及其在确定组合预测权系数中的应用[J].安徽大学学报(自科版),2003,27(4):1-6.CHEN Hua-you.Entropy method and application to determine weights of combination forecasting[J].Journal of Anhui University Natural Science Edition,2003,27(4):1-6.
[25]Liang J,Shi Z,Li D,et al.Information entropy,rough entropy and knowledge granulation in incomplete information systems[J].International Journal of General Systems,2006,35(6):641-654.