川藏铁路(康定至林芝段)沿线滑坡风险分析
|
摘要
根据川藏铁路康定至林芝段穿越区域滑坡灾害的孕灾环境、诱发条件耦合铁路线路承灾体的暴露性、属性特征和成灾恢复力等5个方面选取地层岩性、铁道类型等14个风险评价指标,构建基于贡献率法的的风险评价模型,并开展川藏铁路沿线滑坡风险定量分析评价及制图,在此基础上对拟建铁路沿线的滑坡灾害可接受风险水平开展定量分析。结果表明:处于高和较高风险度区的铁路线路为131.13km(10.7%),处于可容忍风险水平线上的线路长度为85.14km(8.47%),因此规划线路总体上较好地规避了滑坡灾害风险,但线路局部高风险线路的选线尚有调整空间,在工程建设和运营维护时应采取相应的滑坡灾害防控措施以规避、转移和降低风险,提升其抗灾性能。本方法可为川藏铁路及类似拟建重大线性工程的选线设计和沿线滑坡灾害的风险控制提供参考依据。
Mountain hazard is a major challenge to the construction of the Sichuan-Tibet Railway,thus risk analysis of landslides is significant to the disaster mitigation.In this study,a landslide risk evaluation method for linear project was proposed.The evaluation indexes were established by coupling parameters of environmental,trigger factors of landslide and exposure,property characteristics and resilience of the railway.The risk analysis model based on contribution weight approach was applied to the risk quantitative evaluation of Kangding to Nyingchi section of Sichuan-Tibet railway experimentally.Risk grading and mapping were done in GIS system.On this basis,the acceptable risk level of landslide hazard along the linear project was quantitatively analyzed.The results show that the railway line in the high and higher risk areas and unacceptable risk level areas is 131.13 km and 85.14 km,accounting for 10.7%and 8.47%of the total length of the line respectively.Therefore,the landslide risk of Sichuan-Tibet railway is better avoided in general.However,there is still room for adjustment in the alignment of some sections of the line in high risk areas.To prevent damage to the railway line,corresponding protection measures against landslide disasters should be carried out during the construction,operation and maintenance of the project.This method can provide reference for the risk management and route selection design of significant linear projects affected by the landslide disaster,such as Sichuan-Tibet railway.
Mountain hazard is a major challenge to the construction of the Sichuan-Tibet Railway,thus risk analysis of landslides is significant to the disaster mitigation.In this study,a landslide risk evaluation method for linear project was proposed.The evaluation indexes were established by coupling parameters of environmental,trigger factors of landslide and exposure,property characteristics and resilience of the railway.The risk analysis model based on contribution weight approach was applied to the risk quantitative evaluation of Kangding to Nyingchi section of Sichuan-Tibet railway experimentally.Risk grading and mapping were done in GIS system.On this basis,the acceptable risk level of landslide hazard along the linear project was quantitatively analyzed.The results show that the railway line in the high and higher risk areas and unacceptable risk level areas is 131.13 km and 85.14 km,accounting for 10.7%and 8.47%of the total length of the line respectively.Therefore,the landslide risk of Sichuan-Tibet railway is better avoided in general.However,there is still room for adjustment in the alignment of some sections of the line in high risk areas.To prevent damage to the railway line,corresponding protection measures against landslide disasters should be carried out during the construction,operation and maintenance of the project.This method can provide reference for the risk management and route selection design of significant linear projects affected by the landslide disaster,such as Sichuan-Tibet railway.
引文
[1]张广泽,蒋良文,宋章,等.横断山区川藏线山地灾害和地质选线原则研究[J].铁道工程学报,2016(2):21-33.ZHANG Guangze,JIANG Liangwen,SONG Zhang,et al.Research on the Mountain Disaster and Geological Alignment Fundamental of Sichuan-Tibet Railway Running Through N-S Mountain Area[J].Journal of Railway Engineering Society,2016(2):21-33.
[2]夏修身,戴胜勇,陈兴冲,等.川藏铁路大跨度桥梁抗震设防标准研究[J].铁道学报,2016,38(10):85-89.XIA Xiushen,DAI Shengyong,CHEN Xingchong,et al.Seismic Design Criterion for Long-span Bridges of SichuanTibet Railway[J].Journal of the China Railway Society,2016,38(10):85-89.
[3]乔建平.滑坡风险区划理论与实践[M].成都:四川大学出版社,2010.
[4]张梁,张业成,罗元华.地质灾害灾情评估理论与实践[M].北京:地质出版社,1998.
[5]FINLAY P J,FELL R.Landslides:Risk Perception and Acceptance[J].Canadian Geotechnical Journal,1997,34(2):169-188.
[6]GUZZETTI F,REICHENBACH P,CARDINALI M,et al.Probabilistic Landslide Hazard Assessment at the Basin Scale[J].Geomorphology,2005,72(1/4):272-299.
[7]张春山,吴满路,张业成.地质灾害风险评价方法及展望[J].自然灾害学报,2003,12(1):96-102.ZHANG Chunshan,WU Manlu,ZHANG Yecheng.Method and Prospect of Geological Disaster Risk Assessment[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2003,12(1):96-102.
[8]FELL R,COROMINAS J,BONNARD C,et al.Guidelines for Landslide Susceptibility,Hazard and Risk Zoning for Land Use Planning[J].Engineering Geology,2008,102(3/4):85-98.
[9]MAES J,KERVYN M,HONTHEIM A D,et al.Landslide Risk Reduction Measures:a Review of Practices and Challenges for the Tropics[J].Progress in Physical Geography,2017,41(2):191-221.
[10]魏少伟,雷大鹏,卢大玮,等.山区既有铁路地质灾害风险评估方法[J].铁道建筑,2016(1):47-52.WEI Shaowei,LEI Dapeng,LU Dawei,et al.Risk Assessment Method of Geological Disaster of Existing Mountain Railway[J].Railway Engineering,2016(1):47-52.
[11]王剑,陆德彪,唐一哲,等.基于虚拟应答器的GNSS列车安全定位及风险分析[J].铁道学报,2016,38(6):45-52.WANG Jian,LU Debiao,TANG Yizhe,et al.Virtual Balise Application for GNSS Train Safe Location and Risk Analysis[J].Journal of the China Railway Society,2016,38(6):45-52.
[12]UNDHA.Internationally Agreed Glossary of Basie Terms Related to Disaster Management[R].Geneva:United Nations Department of Humanitarian Affairs,1992.
[13]朱良峰,殷坤龙,张梁,等.基于GIS技术的地质灾害风险分析系统研究[J].工程地质学报,2002,10(4):428-433.ZHU Liangfeng,YIN Kunlong,ZHANG Liang,et al.Risk Analysis System of Geo-hazards by Using GIS Technique[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,2002,10(4):428-433.
[14]李宁,曲星,姚显春,等.浅埋松散围岩中有限元方法应用的进一步研究[J].岩土工程学报,2012,34(8):1475-1482.LI Ning,QU Xing,YAO Xianchun,et al.Further Researches on Finite Element Method in Tunnels with Shallow Overburden and Loosen Rock Mass[J].Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering,2012,34(8):1475-1482.
[15]中国人民共和国国家质量监督检验检疫总局,中国国家标准化管理委员会.GB 18306—2015中国地震动参数区划图[S].北京:中国标准出版社,2015.
[16]崔玉龙,魏进兵,邓建辉,等.利用贡献率分析法研究河道型水库两岸滑坡发育规律[J].四川大学学报(工程科学版),2013,45(3):50-56.CUI Yulong,WEI Jinbing,DENG Jianhui,et al.Development Law of Landslides in the Either Bank of the Channel Reservoir with the Analysis of Contribution Rate[J].Journal of Sichuan Univeisity(Engineering Science Edition),2013,45(3):50-56.
[17]邱海军.秦巴山地滑坡崩塌灾害特征与危险性分析:以宁强县为例[M].北京:中国环境出版社,2017.
[2]夏修身,戴胜勇,陈兴冲,等.川藏铁路大跨度桥梁抗震设防标准研究[J].铁道学报,2016,38(10):85-89.XIA Xiushen,DAI Shengyong,CHEN Xingchong,et al.Seismic Design Criterion for Long-span Bridges of SichuanTibet Railway[J].Journal of the China Railway Society,2016,38(10):85-89.
[3]乔建平.滑坡风险区划理论与实践[M].成都:四川大学出版社,2010.
[4]张梁,张业成,罗元华.地质灾害灾情评估理论与实践[M].北京:地质出版社,1998.
[5]FINLAY P J,FELL R.Landslides:Risk Perception and Acceptance[J].Canadian Geotechnical Journal,1997,34(2):169-188.
[6]GUZZETTI F,REICHENBACH P,CARDINALI M,et al.Probabilistic Landslide Hazard Assessment at the Basin Scale[J].Geomorphology,2005,72(1/4):272-299.
[7]张春山,吴满路,张业成.地质灾害风险评价方法及展望[J].自然灾害学报,2003,12(1):96-102.ZHANG Chunshan,WU Manlu,ZHANG Yecheng.Method and Prospect of Geological Disaster Risk Assessment[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2003,12(1):96-102.
[8]FELL R,COROMINAS J,BONNARD C,et al.Guidelines for Landslide Susceptibility,Hazard and Risk Zoning for Land Use Planning[J].Engineering Geology,2008,102(3/4):85-98.
[9]MAES J,KERVYN M,HONTHEIM A D,et al.Landslide Risk Reduction Measures:a Review of Practices and Challenges for the Tropics[J].Progress in Physical Geography,2017,41(2):191-221.
[10]魏少伟,雷大鹏,卢大玮,等.山区既有铁路地质灾害风险评估方法[J].铁道建筑,2016(1):47-52.WEI Shaowei,LEI Dapeng,LU Dawei,et al.Risk Assessment Method of Geological Disaster of Existing Mountain Railway[J].Railway Engineering,2016(1):47-52.
[11]王剑,陆德彪,唐一哲,等.基于虚拟应答器的GNSS列车安全定位及风险分析[J].铁道学报,2016,38(6):45-52.WANG Jian,LU Debiao,TANG Yizhe,et al.Virtual Balise Application for GNSS Train Safe Location and Risk Analysis[J].Journal of the China Railway Society,2016,38(6):45-52.
[12]UNDHA.Internationally Agreed Glossary of Basie Terms Related to Disaster Management[R].Geneva:United Nations Department of Humanitarian Affairs,1992.
[13]朱良峰,殷坤龙,张梁,等.基于GIS技术的地质灾害风险分析系统研究[J].工程地质学报,2002,10(4):428-433.ZHU Liangfeng,YIN Kunlong,ZHANG Liang,et al.Risk Analysis System of Geo-hazards by Using GIS Technique[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,2002,10(4):428-433.
[14]李宁,曲星,姚显春,等.浅埋松散围岩中有限元方法应用的进一步研究[J].岩土工程学报,2012,34(8):1475-1482.LI Ning,QU Xing,YAO Xianchun,et al.Further Researches on Finite Element Method in Tunnels with Shallow Overburden and Loosen Rock Mass[J].Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering,2012,34(8):1475-1482.
[15]中国人民共和国国家质量监督检验检疫总局,中国国家标准化管理委员会.GB 18306—2015中国地震动参数区划图[S].北京:中国标准出版社,2015.
[16]崔玉龙,魏进兵,邓建辉,等.利用贡献率分析法研究河道型水库两岸滑坡发育规律[J].四川大学学报(工程科学版),2013,45(3):50-56.CUI Yulong,WEI Jinbing,DENG Jianhui,et al.Development Law of Landslides in the Either Bank of the Channel Reservoir with the Analysis of Contribution Rate[J].Journal of Sichuan Univeisity(Engineering Science Edition),2013,45(3):50-56.
[17]邱海军.秦巴山地滑坡崩塌灾害特征与危险性分析:以宁强县为例[M].北京:中国环境出版社,2017.