华南地区7—10月两类区域性极端降水事件特征及环流异常对比
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摘要
利用1981—2016年7—10月中国753站逐日降水资料、气象信息综合分析处理系统(MICAPS)逐日站点降水资料、日本东京台风中心西北太平洋热带气旋(TC)最佳路径资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料集,分析了华南地区区域性日降水极端事件(RDPE事件)的统计特征及环流异常。根据华南地区RDPE事件的发生是否受热带气旋影响将其分为TCfree-RDPE和TCaff-RDPE两类事件,其中TCaff-RDPE事件占42%且集中发生在8月4—5候;TCfree-RDPE事件以7月发生频数最多,占其总频次的1/2以上。TCfree-RDPE事件发生时,华南地区受异常气旋性环流控制,来自西太平洋和中国南海的暖湿气流与北方冷气团在此汇合并形成一条狭长的水汽辐合带,低层辐合、高层辐散,显著强烈的上升运动为TCfree-RDPE事件的发生与维持提供了有利条件;与此同时,波扰动能量由高原东北侧及河西走廊地区向华南一带传播并在华南显著辐合,有利于华南上空扰动的发展和维持。TCaff-RDPE事件发生时,华南上空由低层到高层的斜压环流结构更为明显,异常上升运动更加强烈,热带气旋在其运动过程中携带了大量源自孟加拉湾、中国南海和西太平洋地区的水汽并输送至华南地区,水汽辐合气流更为强盛。同时,波扰动能量由高纬度地区沿河西走廊向下游传播,但在华南地区辐合不甚明显。两类极端事件发生时,加热场上的差异亦明显。华南及邻近地区上空的大气净加热及其南侧大范围区域的净冷却所形成的加热场梯度对TCfree-RDPE事件的发生有利。而TCaff-RDPE事件发生时,〈Q_1〉和〈Q_2〉在经向上由18°N以南、华南及其邻近地区、32°N以北呈负—正—负的异常分布型,正距平值更高,加热场梯度更大,有利于TCaff-RDPE事件的维持。这些结果有利于人们认识和预测华南区域性日降水极端事件的发生。
Using daily precipitation data collected at 753 stations in China and from the Meteorological Information Comprehensive Analysis and Process System(MICAPS), the Southwest Pacific Ocean Tropical Cyclone(TC) optimal path data from the Tokyo Typhoon Center in Japan, and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research(NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis, the statistical characteristics of regional mean daily precipitation extreme(RDPE) events and circulation anomalies in South China were studied. Depending on whether the occurrence of a given RDPE event is affected by TC, the RDPEs are classified into two categories, i.e., TCfree-RDPE and TCaff-RDPE events. The TCaff-RDPE events account for about 42% of the total RDPEs and mainly occur in late August, while the TCfree-RDPE events frequently occur in July. When TCfree-RDPE events occur, South China is controlled by abnormal cyclonic circulations, and the warm and moist airflow from the western Pacific region and the South China Sea merge with the cold air from the north in this region, inducing a long narrow zone of water vapor convergence and significant and strong ascending motion, which are responsible for the occurrence and maintenance of TCfree-RDPE events. Simultaneously, the wave energy propagates from the northeastern side of the Tibetan Plateau and the Hexi Corridor region to South China and converges in this area, which favors the development and maintenance of perturbation over South China. When TCaff-RDPE events occur, the southern part of China is dominated by TC-related strong anomalous cyclonic circulations. The warm, moist air mass is transported into this area from the Bay of Bengal, the western Pacific and the South China Sea, leading to large amounts of latent heat release and strong ascending motion over South China. These results are helpful for better understanding and predicting the occurrence of regional extreme precipitation events in South China.
Using daily precipitation data collected at 753 stations in China and from the Meteorological Information Comprehensive Analysis and Process System(MICAPS), the Southwest Pacific Ocean Tropical Cyclone(TC) optimal path data from the Tokyo Typhoon Center in Japan, and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research(NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis, the statistical characteristics of regional mean daily precipitation extreme(RDPE) events and circulation anomalies in South China were studied. Depending on whether the occurrence of a given RDPE event is affected by TC, the RDPEs are classified into two categories, i.e., TCfree-RDPE and TCaff-RDPE events. The TCaff-RDPE events account for about 42% of the total RDPEs and mainly occur in late August, while the TCfree-RDPE events frequently occur in July. When TCfree-RDPE events occur, South China is controlled by abnormal cyclonic circulations, and the warm and moist airflow from the western Pacific region and the South China Sea merge with the cold air from the north in this region, inducing a long narrow zone of water vapor convergence and significant and strong ascending motion, which are responsible for the occurrence and maintenance of TCfree-RDPE events. Simultaneously, the wave energy propagates from the northeastern side of the Tibetan Plateau and the Hexi Corridor region to South China and converges in this area, which favors the development and maintenance of perturbation over South China. When TCaff-RDPE events occur, the southern part of China is dominated by TC-related strong anomalous cyclonic circulations. The warm, moist air mass is transported into this area from the Bay of Bengal, the western Pacific and the South China Sea, leading to large amounts of latent heat release and strong ascending motion over South China. These results are helpful for better understanding and predicting the occurrence of regional extreme precipitation events in South China.
引文
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程正泉, 陈联寿, 刘燕等. 2007. 1960—2003年我国热带气旋降水的时空分布特征. 应用气象学报, 18(4): 427-434. Cheng Z Q, Chen L S, Liu Y, et al. 2007. The spatial and temporal characteristics of tropical cyclone-induced rainfall in China during 1960-2003. J Appl Meteor Sci, 18(4): 427-434 (in Chinese)
何有海, 关翠华, 林锡贵等. 1998. 华南后汛期降雨量的振动和分布. 热带气象学报, 14(4): 359-363. He Y H, Guan C H, Lin X G, et al. 1998. Oscillation and distribution of rainfall during second rainy season in South China. J Trop Meteor, 14(4): 359-363 (in Chinese)
胡娅敏, 翟盘茂, 罗晓玲等. 2014. 2013年华南前汛期持续性强降水的大尺度环流与低频信号特征. 气象学报, 72(3): 465-477. Hu Y M, Zhai P M, Luo X L, et al. 2014. Large scale circulation and low frequency signal characteristics for the persistent extreme precipitation in the first rainy season over South China in 2013. Acta Meteor Sinica, 72(3): 465-477 (in Chinese)
黄荣辉, 徐予红, 周连童. 1999. 我国夏季降水的年代际变化及华北干旱化趋势. 高原气象, 18(4): 465-476. Huang R H, Xu Y H, Zhou L T. 1999. The interdecadal variation of summer precipitations in China and the drought trend in North China. Plateau Meteor, 18(4): 465-476(in Chinese)
黄晓莹, 谭浩波, 李菲等. 2009. 21世纪末华南汛期强降水变化分析. 气象科技, 37(4): 425-428. Huang X Y, Tan H B, Li F, et al. 2009. Changes of flood-season severe precipitation over South China in 2071-2100. Meteor Sci Technol, 37(4): 425-428 (in Chinese)
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