梧桐河流域上游径流时序变化特性及趋势
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摘要
为掌握梧桐河流域上游径流时序变化特性以指导流域水资源开发利用,基于梧桐河上游宝泉岭水文站1951～2013年天然径流序列,采用累积距平法、非参数检验Mann-Kendall法和Morlet小波分析法研究了年、季节径流量的趋势特征、突变特征及周期特征,探讨了引起天然径流量发生变化的主要原因。结果表明,梧桐河流域春、冬两季径流量分别以0.005×10~8、0.004×10~8 m~3/10a平均速率呈增加变化,夏、秋两季径流量分别以0.144×10~8、0.243×108 m~3/10a平均速率呈减少变化,仅秋季径流量减少趋势显著,在季节径流量综合作用下,年径流量以-0.379×10~8 m~3/10a平均速率呈不显著减少变化;年及季节径流量丰枯转变频繁,突变多发生于1960年代中期以前;年及四季径流量存在显著周期特征,第1主周期依次为12、14、12、11、11年;降水减少引起流域径流量减少,使得两者呈基本一致的时序变化特性。研究成果可为流域水资源开发利用及规划管理提供依据。
In order to master the change characteristics of runoff in the upper reaches of the Wutong river basin and to guide the development and utilization of water resources in the river basin,based on the natural runoff data of the Baoquanling hydrological station from 1951 to 2013,the cumulative anomaly method,nonparametric test Mann Kendall method and Morlet wavelet analysis method were used to study the trend characteristics,mutation characteristics and periodicity characteristics of annual and seasonal runoff,and the main factors causing in natural runoff were discussed.The results show that the runoff in spring and winter was respectively increased by 0.005×10~8 m~3/10 aand 0.004×10~8 m~3/10 a,and the runoff in summer and autumn was respectively reduced by 0.144×10~8 m~3/10 aand 0.243×10~8 m~3/10 a,only the decrease of the runoff in autumn was significant.Under the combined effects of seasonal runoff,the annual runoff was not significantly reduced by the average rate of-0.379×10~8 m~3/10 a.Meanwhile,the high and low water change of the annual and seasonal runoff was frequent,and the mutation was occurred mainly before the mid 1960's,and the annual and seasonal runoff has significant periodic characteristics,and the first main cycle is respectively12 a,14 a,12 a,11 aand 11 a.The decrease of the precipitation leads to the decrease of the runoff in the upper reaches of the Wutong river basin,and to make the precipitation and the runoff have the consistent temporal variation characteristics.The research can provide some basis for the water resources development and utilization and planning management.
In order to master the change characteristics of runoff in the upper reaches of the Wutong river basin and to guide the development and utilization of water resources in the river basin,based on the natural runoff data of the Baoquanling hydrological station from 1951 to 2013,the cumulative anomaly method,nonparametric test Mann Kendall method and Morlet wavelet analysis method were used to study the trend characteristics,mutation characteristics and periodicity characteristics of annual and seasonal runoff,and the main factors causing in natural runoff were discussed.The results show that the runoff in spring and winter was respectively increased by 0.005×10~8 m~3/10 aand 0.004×10~8 m~3/10 a,and the runoff in summer and autumn was respectively reduced by 0.144×10~8 m~3/10 aand 0.243×10~8 m~3/10 a,only the decrease of the runoff in autumn was significant.Under the combined effects of seasonal runoff,the annual runoff was not significantly reduced by the average rate of-0.379×10~8 m~3/10 a.Meanwhile,the high and low water change of the annual and seasonal runoff was frequent,and the mutation was occurred mainly before the mid 1960's,and the annual and seasonal runoff has significant periodic characteristics,and the first main cycle is respectively12 a,14 a,12 a,11 aand 11 a.The decrease of the precipitation leads to the decrease of the runoff in the upper reaches of the Wutong river basin,and to make the precipitation and the runoff have the consistent temporal variation characteristics.The research can provide some basis for the water resources development and utilization and planning management.
引文
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[7] 艾萍,吴军斓,王雪娇,等.基于Mann-Kendall法的水温时间序列检验[J].水利水电技术,2014,45(2):10-12,27.
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[2] 姜圣秋,赵艳波,刘正茂,等.梧桐河流域水资源时空变化特征及合理配置[J].东北水利水电,2006,24(7):26-27,29.
[3] 闫宝宏.基于小波分析的梧桐河径流深多时间尺度特征分析[J].黑龙江水利科技,2010,38(6):57-58.
[4] 龚云,孔兰.南明河流域径流量时间序列演变趋势分析[J].中国农村水利水电,2011(1):14-15,18.
[5] 卢爱刚,王瑛.延安市近60年气温与降水趋势突变分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2012,26(1):60-62.
[6] 马妍博,袁鹏,李保琦.前河流域上游径流的时间变化特征及变化趋势分析[J].水电能源科学,2013,31(9):16-19.
[7] 艾萍,吴军斓,王雪娇,等.基于Mann-Kendall法的水温时间序列检验[J].水利水电技术,2014,45(2):10-12,27.
[8] 刘慧文,郭中小,龙胤慧,等.锡林河下游河谷平原区降水时序演变规律研究[J].中国农村水利水电,2016(11):101-105,109.
[9] 贾宪,沈冰.近61年西安市主要气象因素变化趋势研究[J].水资源与水工程学报,2014,25(1):48-51.
[10]陆志华,夏自强,于岚岚.松花江佳木斯站径流变化规律及演变趋势分析[J].水电能源科学,2011,29(4):14-17.