基于全局灵敏度的光伏不确定性对电力系统小信号稳定的影响评估
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摘要
介绍一种基于全局灵敏度分析的光伏不确定性对电力系统小信号稳定性影响的量化评估方法,利用该方法可辨认对电力系统小信号稳定性影响最大的不确定因素。文章介绍了包含光伏的电力系统小信号建模方法,包括光伏的不确定性模型和光伏出力相关性的处理方法;阐述了各种不确定性对电力系统小信号稳定性的影响机理。介绍了全局灵敏度在电力系统不确定因素排序中的应用,包括一阶灵敏度指标(FOSI)和总灵敏度指标(TESI)的计算方法和流程。通过9母线和68母线系统验证了文章所提出方法的有效性。研究结果表明,该方法可以准确地对电力系统中的不确定性因素进行排序,从而提高不确定性分析的效率,为电力系统的规划和运行提供理论支撑。
This paper introduces a global sensitivity analysis based method to measure the influence of photovoltaic uncertainty on power system small signals. The method is proposed to evaluate the impact of uncertainty on stability,and the purpose of this method is to find the uncertainties that have the greatest impact on the small signal stability of the power system. Firstly,the small-signal modeling method of power system including photovoltaic is introduced,including the uncertainty model of photovoltaic and the processing method of photovoltaic output power correlation. The mechanism of the influence of photovoltaic uncertainty on the small signal stability of power system is expounded. Then the application of global sensitivity in the ranking of uncertainties in power systems is introduced,including the calculation methods of first-order sensitivity indices(FOSI)and total effect sensitivity indices(TESI). Finally,the effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by the 9-bus and 68-bus system. The results show that the method can accurately rank the uncertainties in the power system,thereby improving the efficiency of uncertainty analysis and providing theoretical support for operation and planning of the power system.
This paper introduces a global sensitivity analysis based method to measure the influence of photovoltaic uncertainty on power system small signals. The method is proposed to evaluate the impact of uncertainty on stability,and the purpose of this method is to find the uncertainties that have the greatest impact on the small signal stability of the power system. Firstly,the small-signal modeling method of power system including photovoltaic is introduced,including the uncertainty model of photovoltaic and the processing method of photovoltaic output power correlation. The mechanism of the influence of photovoltaic uncertainty on the small signal stability of power system is expounded. Then the application of global sensitivity in the ranking of uncertainties in power systems is introduced,including the calculation methods of first-order sensitivity indices(FOSI)and total effect sensitivity indices(TESI). Finally,the effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by the 9-bus and 68-bus system. The results show that the method can accurately rank the uncertainties in the power system,thereby improving the efficiency of uncertainty analysis and providing theoretical support for operation and planning of the power system.
引文
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[12]何琨,严正,徐潇源,等.基于Sobol'法的孤岛微电网潮流全局灵敏度分析[J].电力系统自动化,2018,42(14):99-106.
[13] Fernandez Bernal F, Rouco L, Centeno P, et al.Modelling of photovoltaic plants for power system dynamic studies[A]. Power System Management and Control,2002,Fifth International Conference on IET[C].London:IET,2002.341-346.
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[15] Karaki S H,Chedid R B,Ramadan R. Probabilistic performance assessment of autonomous solar-wind energy conversion systems[J]. IEEE Transactions on Energy Conversion,2002,14(3):766-772.
[16]吴巍,汪可友,李国杰.计及光伏发电相关性的多重积分法概率潮流计算[J].中国电机工程学报,2015,35(3):568-575.
[17]陈雁,文劲宇,程时杰.考虑输入变量相关性的概率潮流计算方法[J].中国电机工程学报,2011,31(22):80-87.
[18]潘雄,孙丹,刘延泉,等.基于Kriging代理模型方法的含风电场电力系统暂态稳定不确定性分析[J].中国电机工程学报,2015,35(8):1853-1863.
[19] Zou B,Xiao Q. Solving probabilistic optimal power flow problem using quasi monte carlo method and ninthorder polynomialnormal transformation[J]. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2013,29(1):300-306.
[20] Chen X,Tung Y K. Investigation of polynomial normal transform[J]. Structural Safety,2003,25(4):423-445.
[21]杜文娟,卜思齐,王海风.考虑并网风电随机波动的电力系统小干扰概率稳定性分析[J].中国电机工程学报,2011,31(S1):7-11.
[2] Eftekharnejad S,Vittal V,Heydt G T,et al. Small signal stability assessment of power systems with increased penetration of photovoltaic generation:A case study[J].IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy,2013,4(4):960-967.
[3]葛景,都洪基,赵大伟,等.光伏电站接入对多机电力系统低频振荡的影响分析[J].电力系统自动化,2016,40(22):63-70.
[4]葛星,钟海亮,郑超,等.网间规模化光伏并网对系统阻尼的影响及优化措施[J].可再生能源,2018(1):27-35.
[5] Hasan K N,Preece R,Milanovic J V. Priority ranking of critical uncertainties affecting small-disturbance stability using sensitivity analysis techniques[J]. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2017,32(4):2629-2639.
[6] Huang H,Chung C Y,Chan K W,et al. Quasi-monte carlo based probabilistic small signal stability analysis for power systems with Plug-in electric vehicle and wind power integration[J]. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2013,28(3):3335-3343.
[7] Bu S Q,Du W,Wang H F,et al. Probabilistic analysis of small-signal stability of large-scale power systems as affected by penetration of wind generation[J]. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2012,27(2):762-770.
[8] Liu S, Liu P X, Wang X. Stochastic small-signal stability analysis of grid-connected photovoltaic systems[J].IEEE Transactions on Industrial Electronics,2016,63(2):1027-1038.
[9] Zhou Y,Li Y,Liu W,et al. The stochastic response surface method for small-signal stability study of power system with probabilistic uncertainties in correlated Photovoltaic and Load[J]. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2017,32(6):4551-4559.
[10] Saltelli A. Global Sensitivity Analysis:the primer[M].New York:John Wiley,2008.
[11] Ni F,Nijhuis M,Nguyen P H,et al. Variance-based global sensitivity analysis for power systems[J]. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2018,33(2):1670-1682.
[12]何琨,严正,徐潇源,等.基于Sobol'法的孤岛微电网潮流全局灵敏度分析[J].电力系统自动化,2018,42(14):99-106.
[13] Fernandez Bernal F, Rouco L, Centeno P, et al.Modelling of photovoltaic plants for power system dynamic studies[A]. Power System Management and Control,2002,Fifth International Conference on IET[C].London:IET,2002.341-346.
[14] Sauer P W,Pai M A. Power System Dynamics and Stability[M]. Englewood:Prentice Hall,1998.
[15] Karaki S H,Chedid R B,Ramadan R. Probabilistic performance assessment of autonomous solar-wind energy conversion systems[J]. IEEE Transactions on Energy Conversion,2002,14(3):766-772.
[16]吴巍,汪可友,李国杰.计及光伏发电相关性的多重积分法概率潮流计算[J].中国电机工程学报,2015,35(3):568-575.
[17]陈雁,文劲宇,程时杰.考虑输入变量相关性的概率潮流计算方法[J].中国电机工程学报,2011,31(22):80-87.
[18]潘雄,孙丹,刘延泉,等.基于Kriging代理模型方法的含风电场电力系统暂态稳定不确定性分析[J].中国电机工程学报,2015,35(8):1853-1863.
[19] Zou B,Xiao Q. Solving probabilistic optimal power flow problem using quasi monte carlo method and ninthorder polynomialnormal transformation[J]. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2013,29(1):300-306.
[20] Chen X,Tung Y K. Investigation of polynomial normal transform[J]. Structural Safety,2003,25(4):423-445.
[21]杜文娟,卜思齐,王海风.考虑并网风电随机波动的电力系统小干扰概率稳定性分析[J].中国电机工程学报,2011,31(S1):7-11.
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