考虑有限理性的震后应急路径选择模型
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摘要
为保障应急物资运输的快捷性和安全性,在充分考虑次生事件发生的时间随机性和影响路段的空间差异性后,在时空维度上划分路网区域阶段,并提出路段筛选方法优化路网,建立基于累积前景理论(CPT)的应急路径选择模型;对模型做多参考点延伸,选取运输时间和风险度作为2个异质参考点,针对风险度描述的特殊性和阶段的变化性,引入三角模糊数表征风险度并将其设计为动态参考点;采用Bellman-Ford算法搜索最优路径。结果表明:所建模型符合震后路径选择的决策机制,能够描述突发情况下决策者的有限理性选择行为。
For the sake of ensuring the speed and safety of emergency materials transportation,a road segment screening method was worked out and an emergency path selection model based on CPT was built,after full considering the randomness in the occurrence time of secondary events and the spatial difference of the affected road sections. An extention of multiple reference points was made for the model,transportation time and risk were selected as two heterogeneous reference points. According to the particularity and variability of the stage risk description,the triangular fuzzy number was introduced to represent the risk and design it as a dynamic reference point. The Bellman-Ford algorithm was used to search for the optimal path. The results show that the model accords with the decision-making mechanism of post-earthquake path selection,and can describe the limited rational choice behavior of decision makers in emergencies.
For the sake of ensuring the speed and safety of emergency materials transportation,a road segment screening method was worked out and an emergency path selection model based on CPT was built,after full considering the randomness in the occurrence time of secondary events and the spatial difference of the affected road sections. An extention of multiple reference points was made for the model,transportation time and risk were selected as two heterogeneous reference points. According to the particularity and variability of the stage risk description,the triangular fuzzy number was introduced to represent the risk and design it as a dynamic reference point. The Bellman-Ford algorithm was used to search for the optimal path. The results show that the model accords with the decision-making mechanism of post-earthquake path selection,and can describe the limited rational choice behavior of decision makers in emergencies.
引文
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[2]汪传旭,邓先明.模糊环境下多出救点应急救援车辆路径与物资运输优化研究[J].系统管理学报,2011,20(3):269-275.WANG Chuanxu,DENG Xianming.Multi-depot emergency vehicle routing and transportation optimization with fuzzy variables[J].Journal of Systems&Management,2011,20(3):269-275.
[3]王晶,易显强,朱建明.考虑道路修复的应急资源配送可靠路径选择问题研究[J].运筹与管理,2016,25(6):99-104.WANG Jing,YI Xianqiang,ZHU Jianming.Research on reliable path selection for emergency resources distribution considering the road repair[J].Operations Research and Management Science,2016,25(6):99-104.
[4]李彦瑾,罗霞,游云晴.贫信息情况下的应急救援路径选择模型[J].中国安全科学学报,2018,28(8):174-179.LI Yanjin,LUO Xia,YOU Yunqing.A model for emergency rescue path selection under poor information condition[J].China Safety Science Journal,2018,28(8):174-179.
[5]段满珍,陈光,董博,等.不确定信息下应急救援路径选择模型[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2017,17(4):173-181.DUAN Manzhen,CHEN Guang,DONG Bo,et al.Emergency rescue path selection model under uncertain information[J].Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology,2017,17(4):173-181.
[6]TVERSKY A,KAHNEMAN D.Advances in prospect theory:cumulative representation of uncertainty[J].Journal of Risk&Uncertainty,1992,5(4):297-323.
[7]GISELLE D M R,DAAMEN W,HOOGENDOORN S.Modelling travellers'heterogeneous route choice behaviour as prospect maximizers[J].Journal of Choice Modelling,2013,6(3):17-33.
[8]李小静,刘林忠.基于累积前景理论的通勤者路径选择模型[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2015,15(1):173-178.LI Xiaojing,LIU Linzhong.Route choice model for commuters based on cumulative prospect theory[J].Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology,2015,15(1):173-178.
[9]王玮强,张春民,朱昌锋,等.基于累积前景理论的应急物流路径选择方法[J].中国安全科学学报,2017,27(3):169-174.WANG Weiqiang,ZHANG Chunmin,ZHU Changfeng,et al.Route selection method for emergency logistics based on cumulative prospect theory[J].China Safety Science Journal,2017,27(3):169-174.
[10]汪素云,俞言祥,高阿甲,等.中国分区地震动衰减关系的确定[J].中国地震,2000,16(2):99-106.WANG Suyun,YU Yanxiang,GAO Ajia,et al.Determination of the attenuation relationship of ground motion in China[J].Earthquake Research in China,2000,16(2):99-106.
[11]XU Hongli,ZHOU Jing,XU Wei.A decision-making rule for modeling travelers'route choice behavior based on cumulative prospect theory[J].Transportation Research Part C Emerging Technologies,2011,19(2):218-228.
[12]CHEN Chentung.Extensions of the TOPSIS for group decision-making under fuzzy environment[J].Fuzzy Sets&Systems,2000,114(1):1-9.
[13]郝晶晶,朱建军,刘思峰.基于前景理论的多阶段随机多准则决策方法[J].中国管理科学,2015,23(1):73-81.HAO Jingjing,ZHU Jianjun,LIU Sifeng.A method for multi-stage stochastic multi-criteria decision making concerning prospect theory[J].Chinese Journal of Management Science,2015,23(1):73-81.
[14]ZHU Kejun,JING Yu,CHANG Dayong.A discussion on extent analysis method and applications of fuzzy AHP[J].European Journal of Operational Research,1999,116(2):450-456.
[15]徐泽水,达庆利.多属性决策的组合赋权方法研究[J].中国管理科学,2002,10(2):85-88.XU Zeshui,DA Qingli.Research on combination weighting method for multiple attribute decision making[J].Chinese Journal of Management Science,2002,10(2):85-88.