铁橡栎的潜在分布区及其对气候变化的响应
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摘要
利用MaxEnt模型对中国西南干热河谷代表树种铁橡栎(Quercus cocciferoides Hand.-Mazz.)的潜在分布区及变化进行研究。基于91条可靠的分布记录和7个生物气候变量的模拟结果显示:铁橡栎的现代潜在分布受气温因子(等温性、昼夜温差月均值和年均温)和降水因子(最干月份降水量)共同制约,等温性是影响铁橡栎现代潜在分布的首要因子。铁橡栎的潜在分布区与实际分布较为吻合,现代高度适宜区位于滇中高原和滇北—川南金沙江流域;末次盛冰期,高度适宜区位于滇中和滇东南,并向东南退却且核心分布区面积缩减;全新世中期,整体的分布范围相对稳定;未来(2070年),高度适宜区范围与现代高度适宜区基本一致,但中度和低度适宜区轻微向北扩张。滇东南和中南半岛北部可能是铁橡栎末次盛冰期的南部避难所,中国西南干热河谷可能是铁橡栎在冰期-间冰期迁移和扩散的重要通道。综合研究结果认为:应对分布在中国西南干热河谷的铁橡栎进行保护,尤其应重点保护位于滇东南的种群。
Potential distribution area and dynamic change of Quercus cocciferoides Hand.-Mazz.(a representative tree species in dry-hot valley of Southwest China) were studied by using MaxEnt model. Based on 91 reliable distribution records and 7 bioclimatic variables, the simulation result shows that potential distribution of Q. cocciferoides at present is constrained by both temperature factor(isothermality, monthly mean diurnal range of temperature, and annual mean temperature) and precipitation factor(precipitation of the driest month), and isothermality is the primary factor affecting its potential distribution at present. The potential distribution area of Q. cocciferoides is consistent with its actual distribution, and the highly suitable areas at present are located in plateau in Central Yunnan and Jinsha River watershed from North Yunnan to South Sichuan; in the last glacial maximum, high suitable areas are located in Central and Southeast Yunnan, and retreat southeastward and area of central distribution area decreases; in the mid-holocene, overall distribution area is relatively stable; in the future(in 2070), high suitable area is basically identical to that at present, but moderate and low suitable areas slightly expand northward. Southeast Yunnan and northern Indo-China Peninsula might be the south refuge of Q. cocciferoides in the last glacial maximum, and dry-hot valley in Southwest China might be the important passage for the migration and spread of Q. cocciferoides in the glacial-interglacial period. According to the comprehensive research results, Q. cocciferoides distributed in dry-hot valley of Southwest China should be protected, especially the population located in Southeast Yunnan.
Potential distribution area and dynamic change of Quercus cocciferoides Hand.-Mazz.(a representative tree species in dry-hot valley of Southwest China) were studied by using MaxEnt model. Based on 91 reliable distribution records and 7 bioclimatic variables, the simulation result shows that potential distribution of Q. cocciferoides at present is constrained by both temperature factor(isothermality, monthly mean diurnal range of temperature, and annual mean temperature) and precipitation factor(precipitation of the driest month), and isothermality is the primary factor affecting its potential distribution at present. The potential distribution area of Q. cocciferoides is consistent with its actual distribution, and the highly suitable areas at present are located in plateau in Central Yunnan and Jinsha River watershed from North Yunnan to South Sichuan; in the last glacial maximum, high suitable areas are located in Central and Southeast Yunnan, and retreat southeastward and area of central distribution area decreases; in the mid-holocene, overall distribution area is relatively stable; in the future(in 2070), high suitable area is basically identical to that at present, but moderate and low suitable areas slightly expand northward. Southeast Yunnan and northern Indo-China Peninsula might be the south refuge of Q. cocciferoides in the last glacial maximum, and dry-hot valley in Southwest China might be the important passage for the migration and spread of Q. cocciferoides in the glacial-interglacial period. According to the comprehensive research results, Q. cocciferoides distributed in dry-hot valley of Southwest China should be protected, especially the population located in Southeast Yunnan.
引文
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[24] 李明森. 横断山区干旱河谷土地合理开发[J]. 自然资源学报, 1991, 6(4): 326-334.
[25] 王小庆. 干热河谷区滇榄仁繁殖更新策略及其生态适应性[D]. 昆明: 中国林业科学研究院资源昆虫研究所, 2011: 57-58.
[26] 谢春平, 方彦, 方炎明. 乌冈栎群落乔木层种群生态位分析[J]. 中国水土保持科学, 2011, 9(1): 108-114.
[27] 李东胜, 史作民, 冯秋红, 等. 中国东部南北样带暖温带区栎属树种叶片形态性状对气候条件的响应[J]. 植物生态学报, 2013, 37(9): 793-802.
[28] 殷晓洁, 周广胜, 隋兴华, 等. 蒙古栎地理分布的主导气候因子及其阈值[J]. 生态学报, 2013, 33(1): 103-109.
[29] 李颖, 姜小龙, 邓敏, 等. 乌冈栎的潜在分布模拟及分析[J]. 生态学杂志, 2017, 36(10): 2971-2978.
[2] YANG Y, TIAN K, HAO J, et al. Biodiversity and biodiversity conservation in Yunnan, China[J]. Biodiversity and Conservation, 2004, 13(4): 813-826.
[3] MYERS N, MITTERMEIER R A, MITTERMEIER C G, et al. Biodiversity hotspots for conservation priorities[J]. Nature, 2000, 403(24): 853-858.
[4] NI J, YU G, HARRISON S P, et al. Palaeovegetation in China during the late Quaternary: biome reconstructions based on a global scheme of plant functional types[J]. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, 2010, 289(4): 44-61.
[5] HEWITT G. The genetic legacy of the Quaternary ice ages[J]. Nature, 2000, 405(6789): 907-913.
[6] 江志红, 张霞, 王冀. IPCC-AR4模式对中国21世纪气候变化的情景预估[J]. 地理研究, 2008, 27(4): 787-799.
[7] BOOTH T H, NIX H A, BUSBY J R, et al. BIOCLIM: the first species distribution modelling package, its early applications and relevance to most current MaxEnt studies[J]. Diversity and Distributions, 2014, 20(1): 1-9.
[8] CARPENTER G, GILLISON A N, WINTER J. DOMAIN: a flexible modelling procedure for mapping potential distributions of plants and animals[J]. Biodiversity and Conservation, 1993, 2(6): 667-680.
[9] STOCKWELL D R B, NOBLE I R. Induction of sets of rules from animal distribution data: a robust and informative method of data analysis[J]. Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, 1992, 33(5/6): 385-390.
[10] PHILLIPS S J, DUDíK M. Modeling of species distributions with Maxent: new extensions and a comprehensive evaluation[J]. Ecography, 2008, 31(2): 161-175.
[11] PHILLIPS S J, ANDERSON R P, SCHAPIRE R E. Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions[J]. Ecological Modelling, 2006, 190(3): 231-259.
[12] 张雷, 刘世荣, 孙鹏森, 等. 基于DOMAIN和NeuralEnsembles模型预测中国毛竹潜在分布[J]. 林业科学, 2011, 47(7): 20-26.
[13] 张雷, 刘世荣, 孙鹏森, 等. 气候变化对马尾松潜在分布影响预估的多模型比较[J]. 植物生态学报, 2011, 35(11): 1091-1105.
[14] GIOVANELLI J G R, HADDAD C F B, ALEXANDRINO J. Predicting the potential distribution of the alien invasive American bullfrog (Lithobates catesbeianus) in Brazil[J]. Biological Invasions, 2008, 10(5): 585-590.
[15] 中国科学院中国植物志编辑委员会. 中国植物志: 第二十二卷[M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 1998: 253-255.
[16] MARTíNEZ-MEYER E, PETERSON A T, SERVíN J I, et al. Ecological niche modelling and prioritizing areas for species reintroductions[J]. Oryx, 2006, 40(4): 411-418.
[17] 李垚, 张兴旺, 方炎明. 小叶栎分布格局对末次盛冰期以来气候变化的响应[J]. 植物生态学报, 2016, 40(11): 1164-1178.
[18] KUSKY T M, LI J H, TUCKER R D. The Archean Dongwanzi ophiolite complex, North China craton: 2.505-billion-year-old oceanic crust and mantle[J]. Science, 2001, 292(5519): 1142-1145.
[19] 中国第四纪孢粉数据库小组. 中国中全新世(6 ka BP)和末次盛冰期(18 ka BP)生物群区的重建[J]. 植物学报, 2000, 42(11): 1201-1209.
[20] 羊向东, 王苏民, 童国榜, 等. 云南鹤庆古湖晚更新世的孢粉记录及其古气候学意义[J]. 第四纪研究, 1998, 18(4): 335-343.
[21] 肖霞云, 沈吉, 王苏民, 等. 鹤庆深钻孢粉记录揭示的气候变化与西南季风演化[J]. 古生物学报, 2009, 48(2): 185-193.
[22] 杨勤业, 郑度, 刘燕华. 横断山地区干旱河谷的自然特点及其开发利用[J]. 干旱区资源与环境, 1988, 2(2): 17-24.
[23] 姜大膀, 王会军, 郎咸梅. 全球变暖背景下东亚气候变化的最新情景预测[J]. 地球物理学报, 2004, 47(4): 590-596.
[24] 李明森. 横断山区干旱河谷土地合理开发[J]. 自然资源学报, 1991, 6(4): 326-334.
[25] 王小庆. 干热河谷区滇榄仁繁殖更新策略及其生态适应性[D]. 昆明: 中国林业科学研究院资源昆虫研究所, 2011: 57-58.
[26] 谢春平, 方彦, 方炎明. 乌冈栎群落乔木层种群生态位分析[J]. 中国水土保持科学, 2011, 9(1): 108-114.
[27] 李东胜, 史作民, 冯秋红, 等. 中国东部南北样带暖温带区栎属树种叶片形态性状对气候条件的响应[J]. 植物生态学报, 2013, 37(9): 793-802.
[28] 殷晓洁, 周广胜, 隋兴华, 等. 蒙古栎地理分布的主导气候因子及其阈值[J]. 生态学报, 2013, 33(1): 103-109.
[29] 李颖, 姜小龙, 邓敏, 等. 乌冈栎的潜在分布模拟及分析[J]. 生态学杂志, 2017, 36(10): 2971-2978.