水系连通变异下荆南三口河系水文干旱识别与特征分析
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摘要
为揭示水系连通变异下荆南三口河系水文干旱演变特征,运用荆南三口河系五站1956-2016年的月径流量数据,采用游程理论识别该河系水文干旱特征变量,并运用KolmogorowSmirnov优度检验法选出干旱历时、干旱强度和峰值的概率分布函数,构建出水文干旱特征联合分布Copula函数,对水系连通变异下该河系水文干旱特征进行深入研究。结果表明:①1989年为荆南三口河系(1956-2016年)水系连通变异分割点;②该河系连通性变异前后水文干旱特征均发生显著变化,水文干旱事件发生的次数增多,干旱历时增长,干旱强度增大,峰值增高;③各站点的相同单变量重现期下二维联合重现期在水系连通变异前基本上均比水系连通变异后长,二维同现重现期在水系连通变异前均比水系连通变异后短;④水系连通变异后,该河系水文干旱历时、干旱强度和峰值呈现增加趋势,且在相同单变量重现期的情况下,干旱历时更长,干旱强度更大,峰值更高;⑤水系连通变异后水文干旱特征的变化幅度与变异前存在差异,不同河系其水文干旱特征的变化幅度不同。
Based on the monthly runoff data of five stations in three outlets of Jingjiang river from 1956 to 2016, hydrologic drought characteristic variables were identified by run length theory. The probability distribution functions of drought duration, drought intensity and peak value were selected by Kolmogorow-Smirnov's goodness test. A Copulas function was constructed to deeply study the river hydrologic drought characteristics after the river connectivity variation in this region. The results showed that:(1) The year 1989 was the break point of the river system connectivity in three outlets of Jingjiang river(1956-2016).(2) The hydrologic drought characteristics changed significantly before and after river system connectivity break point. The frequency, duration, intensity and peak value of hydrologic drought increased.(3) The two-dimensional joint recurrence periods under the same single variable recurrence period in the pre-variation era in each site were much longer than those in the post-variation era but the two-dimensional co-occurrences return periods of pre-variation were shorter than those of post-variation.(4) The hydrologic drought duration, drought intensity and peak value in river system of the three outlets in Jingjiang river showed an increasing trend after river system connectivity variation. Under the same single variable recurrence period, the drought duration was longer, the drought intensity was greater and the peak value was higher.(5) The magnitude of hydrologic drought characteristics was different before and after variation of river system connectivity, and the variation ranges of hydrologic drought characteristics were different in different river systems.
Based on the monthly runoff data of five stations in three outlets of Jingjiang river from 1956 to 2016, hydrologic drought characteristic variables were identified by run length theory. The probability distribution functions of drought duration, drought intensity and peak value were selected by Kolmogorow-Smirnov's goodness test. A Copulas function was constructed to deeply study the river hydrologic drought characteristics after the river connectivity variation in this region. The results showed that:(1) The year 1989 was the break point of the river system connectivity in three outlets of Jingjiang river(1956-2016).(2) The hydrologic drought characteristics changed significantly before and after river system connectivity break point. The frequency, duration, intensity and peak value of hydrologic drought increased.(3) The two-dimensional joint recurrence periods under the same single variable recurrence period in the pre-variation era in each site were much longer than those in the post-variation era but the two-dimensional co-occurrences return periods of pre-variation were shorter than those of post-variation.(4) The hydrologic drought duration, drought intensity and peak value in river system of the three outlets in Jingjiang river showed an increasing trend after river system connectivity variation. Under the same single variable recurrence period, the drought duration was longer, the drought intensity was greater and the peak value was higher.(5) The magnitude of hydrologic drought characteristics was different before and after variation of river system connectivity, and the variation ranges of hydrologic drought characteristics were different in different river systems.
引文
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[19]Nelsen B.An Introduction to Copulas.New York:Springer,1998.
[20]Wang Zhonggen,Li Zongli,Liu Changming,et al.A theoretical discussion on the connectivity of rivers and lakes.Chinese Journal of Natural Resources,2011,26(3):523-529.[王中根,李宗礼,刘昌明,等.河湖水系连通的理论探.自然资源学报,2011,26(3):523-529.]
[21]Zhang Yu,Song Songbo.Research on three-dimensional joint distribution of drought characteristic variables based on Archimedean Copula.China Rural Water and Hydropower,2011(1):65-68.[张雨,宋松柏.基于Archimedean Copula的三维干旱特征变量联合分布研究.中国农村水利水电,2011(1):65-68.]
[22]Dai Wen,Lv Dianqing,Li Jingbao,et al.The effect of climate change and human activities on runoff in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River.Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2016,38(2):488-497.[代稳,吕殿青,李景保,等.气候变化和人类活动对长江中游径流量变化影响分析.冰川冻土,2016,38(2):488-497.]
[2]Van Loon A F,Laaha G.Hydrological drought severity explained by climate and catchment characteristics.Journal of Hydrology,2015,526(7):3-14.
[3]Wu J,Chen X,Yao H,et al.Non-linear relationship of hydrological drought responding to meteorological drought and impact of a large reservoir.Journal of Hydrology,2017,551(8):495-507.
[4]Dong Qianjin,Xie Ping.Research progress on hydrological drought.Hydrology,2014,34(4):1-7.[董前进,谢平.水文干旱研究进展.水文,2014,34(4):1-7.]
[5]Li Yungang,He Jiaonan,Li Xue.Hydrological and meteorological droughts in the Red River Basin of Yunnan Province based on SPEI and SDI indices.Progress in Geography,2016,35(6):758-767.[李运刚,何娇楠,李雪.基于SPEI和SDI指数的云南红河流域气象水文干旱演变分析.地理科学进展,2016,35(6):758-767.]
[6]Lu Guihua,Yan Guixia,Wu Zhiyong,et al.A method of regional drought analysis based on Copula function.Journal of Water Science,2010,21(2):188-193.[陆桂华,闫桂霞,吴志勇,等.基于Copula函数的区域干旱分析方法.水科学进展,2010,21(2):188-193.]
[7]Liu C L,Zhang Q,Singh V P,et al.Copula-based evaluations of drought variations in Guangdong,South China.Natural Hazards,2011,59(3):1533-1546.
[8]Xiao Mingzhong,Zhang Qiang,Chen Xiaohong.Study on drought characteristics in the Pearl River Basin based on multivariate probability analysis.Acta Geographica Sinica,2012,67(1):83-92.[肖名忠,张强,陈晓宏.基于多变量概率分析的珠江流域干旱特征研究.地理学报,2012,67(1):83-92.]
[9]Li Jingbao,He Xia,Yang Bo,et al.Temporal evolution of dried up days and the influencing mechanisms at Three Outlets along Jingjiang in the middle reach of Yangtze River.Chinese Journal of Natural Resources,2016,31(10):1713-1725.[李景保,何霞,杨波,等.长江中游荆南三口断流时间演变特征及其影响机制.自然资源学报,2016,31(10):1713-1725.]
[10]Li Jingbao,Chang Jiang,Lv Dianqing,et al.Hydrological effects between Jingjiang River and Dongting Lake during initial operation of Three Gorges Reservoir.Acta Geographica Sinica,2009,64(11):1342-1352.[李景保,常疆,吕殿青,等.三峡水库调度运行初期荆江与洞庭湖区的水文效应.地理学报,2009,64(11):1342-1352.]
[11]Freeman M C,Pringle C M,Jackson C R.Hydrologic connectivity and the contribution of stream headwaters to ecological integrity at regional scales.Journal of the American Water Resources Association,2007,43(1):5-14.
[12]Meng Huifang,Xu Youpeng,Xu Guanglai,et al.Research on river connectivity of plain river network area.Resources and Environment in the Yangtze River Basin,2014,23(5):626-631.[孟慧芳,许有鹏,徐光来,等.平原河网区河流连通性评价研究.长江流域资源与环境,2014,23(5):626-631.]
[13]Xu Guanglai,Xu Youpeng,Wang Liuyan.Computation of river network connectivity based on water flow resistance and graph theory.Journal of Water Science,2012,23(6):776-781.[徐光来,许有鹏,王柳艳.基于水流阻力与图论的河网连通性评价.水科学进展,2012,23(6):776-781.]
[14]Xia Jihong,Chen Yongming,Zhou Ziye,et al.Research on mechanism and calculation method of river system connectivity.Progress in Water Science,2017,28(5):780-787.[夏继红,陈永明,周子晔,等.河流水系连通性机制及计算方法综述.水科学进展,2017,28(5):780-787.]
[15]Ru Biao,Chen Xing,Zhang Qicheng,et al.Evaluation of connectivity of drainage system in plain river network area.Hydropower Energy Science,2013,31(5):9-12.[茹彪,陈星,张其成,等.平原河网区水系结构连通性评价.水电能源科学,2013,31(5):9-12.]
[16]Yevjevich V.Objective approach to definitions and investigations of continental hydrologic droughts[D].Fort Collins:Colorado State University,1967.
[17]Tallaksen L M,Madsen H,Clausen B.On the definition and modelling of streamflow drought duration and deficit volume.Hydrological Sciences Journal,1997,42(1):15-33.
[18]Chen Yongqin,Sun Peng,Zhang Qiang,et al.Analysis of hydrological drought frequency in Poyang Lake Basin based on Copula.Journal of Natural Disaster,2013,22(1):75-84.[陈永勤,孙鹏,张强,等.基于Copula的鄱阳湖流域水文干旱频率分析.自然灾害学报,2013,22(1):75-84.]
[19]Nelsen B.An Introduction to Copulas.New York:Springer,1998.
[20]Wang Zhonggen,Li Zongli,Liu Changming,et al.A theoretical discussion on the connectivity of rivers and lakes.Chinese Journal of Natural Resources,2011,26(3):523-529.[王中根,李宗礼,刘昌明,等.河湖水系连通的理论探.自然资源学报,2011,26(3):523-529.]
[21]Zhang Yu,Song Songbo.Research on three-dimensional joint distribution of drought characteristic variables based on Archimedean Copula.China Rural Water and Hydropower,2011(1):65-68.[张雨,宋松柏.基于Archimedean Copula的三维干旱特征变量联合分布研究.中国农村水利水电,2011(1):65-68.]
[22]Dai Wen,Lv Dianqing,Li Jingbao,et al.The effect of climate change and human activities on runoff in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River.Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2016,38(2):488-497.[代稳,吕殿青,李景保,等.气候变化和人类活动对长江中游径流量变化影响分析.冰川冻土,2016,38(2):488-497.]