契约农业,地区差异与养殖信心恢复——以H7N9禽流感事件为例
|
摘要
2013年4月的H7N9禽流感重创了中国的肉禽业,挫伤了大量养殖户的养殖信心。肉禽业的稳定发展离不开养殖户养殖信心的恢复。中国肉鸡产业化发展迅速,生产契约日益影响农户生产决策,同时肉鸡生产存在南北方地域差异。因此,探讨契约农业和地区差异对养殖信心恢复周期的影响具有实际意义。本文依托全国6个肉鸡生产大省280个肉鸡养殖户的调查数据,采用寿命表法、韦布尔分布函数和Cox比例风险回归模型研究发现,在正常情况下,全体养殖户预计到2017年12月能恢复养殖信心;参与契约农业的养殖户或来自北方的养殖户受H7N9事件的冲击较小,养殖信心恢复较快;养殖户参与契约农业的养殖信心恢复概率比未参与的高77%,南方养殖户比北方的信心恢复概率低89%。
The H7N9 avian influenza event in April 2013 damaged the meat poultry sector in China and resulted in a loss of farmer breeding confidence. Steady development of the meat poultry sector depends on breeding confidence recovery. Industrialization of the broiler industry is developing fast and contract farming has influenced farmer production decisions,and exposed differences in broilers farming between southern and northern China. It seems significant to investigate influence of contract farming and geographic differences in farmer breeding confidence rebound. Using 280 broiler farmer samples from six top broiler production provinces,life table methods and the weibull distribution function were used to study farmer farming confidence and predict rebound cycles. Secondly,cox proportional hazard regression model was used to analyze factors that influence breeding confidence rebound cycle. It was found that all farmers are expected to rebound their breeding confidence by December 2017 under normal circumstances. Farmers taking part in contract farming from northern China were less influenced and their breeding confidence recovered quickly. The breeding confidence probability of farmers who participated in contract farming was 77% higher than other farmers. The confidence probability of farmers from southern China was 89% lower than those from northern China. In terms of control variables,farmers who were male,had poultry breeding as their main business,had spent a few years farming,had a low proportion of farm income accounting for total family income,had not experienced avian influenza epidemics,and who had epidemic prevention information channels were more likely to recover breeding confidence quickly. Increasing public and professional epidemic prevention information channels,encourage farmers to participate in contract farming for market risk shift,improve and standardize the live poultry market in southern China may be better ways to hasten breeding confidence recovery.
The H7N9 avian influenza event in April 2013 damaged the meat poultry sector in China and resulted in a loss of farmer breeding confidence. Steady development of the meat poultry sector depends on breeding confidence recovery. Industrialization of the broiler industry is developing fast and contract farming has influenced farmer production decisions,and exposed differences in broilers farming between southern and northern China. It seems significant to investigate influence of contract farming and geographic differences in farmer breeding confidence rebound. Using 280 broiler farmer samples from six top broiler production provinces,life table methods and the weibull distribution function were used to study farmer farming confidence and predict rebound cycles. Secondly,cox proportional hazard regression model was used to analyze factors that influence breeding confidence rebound cycle. It was found that all farmers are expected to rebound their breeding confidence by December 2017 under normal circumstances. Farmers taking part in contract farming from northern China were less influenced and their breeding confidence recovered quickly. The breeding confidence probability of farmers who participated in contract farming was 77% higher than other farmers. The confidence probability of farmers from southern China was 89% lower than those from northern China. In terms of control variables,farmers who were male,had poultry breeding as their main business,had spent a few years farming,had a low proportion of farm income accounting for total family income,had not experienced avian influenza epidemics,and who had epidemic prevention information channels were more likely to recover breeding confidence quickly. Increasing public and professional epidemic prevention information channels,encourage farmers to participate in contract farming for market risk shift,improve and standardize the live poultry market in southern China may be better ways to hasten breeding confidence recovery.
引文
[1]Siegrist M,Earle T C,Gutscher H.Test of a trust and confidence model in the applied context of electromagnetic field(EMF)risks[J].Risk Analysis,2003,23(4):705-716.
[2]Ajzen I.The theory of planned behavior[J].Research in Nursing&Health,1991,14(2):137-144.
[3]于乐荣,李小云,汪力斌.禽流感发生后家禽养殖农户的生产行为变化分析[J].农业经济问题,2009,(7):13-21.[Yu L R,Li X Y,Wang L B.Analysis on changes of poultry producers'production behavior after avian influenza outbreak[J].Issues in Agricultural Economy,2009,(7):13-21.]
[4]中华人民共和国国家统计局.中国统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,1977-2014.[National Bureau of Statistics of the People's Republic of China.China Statistical Yearbook 1977-2014[M].Beijing:China Statistics Press,1977-2014.]
[5]戴炜,胡浩,虞祎.我国肉鸡市场价格周期性波动分析[J].农业技术经济,2014,(5):12-20.[Dai W,Hu H,Yu Y.Analysis of period fluctuation of chicken price in China[J].Journal of Agrotechnical Economics,2014,(5):12-20.]
[6]辛翔飞,王济民.产业化对肉鸡养殖户收入影响的实证分析[J].农业技术经济,2013,(2):4-10.[Xin X F,Wang J M.Empirical analysis of the impact of industrialization on chicken farmers income[J].Journal of Agrotechnical Economics,2013,(2):4-10.]
[7]Guo H,Jolly R W.Contract Farming in China:Perspectives of Smallholders[C].Beijing:International Association of Agricultural Economists Conference,2009.
[8]FAOSTAT.Livestock Primary[EB/OL].(2016-06-10)[2016-07-11].http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QL.
[9]Erkan R,Vertical Coordination in the Agro-food Industry and Contract Farming:A Comparative Study of Turkey and the USA:Report of Food Marketing Policy Center Research[R].Storrs:University of Connecticut,2000.
[10]Macdonald J,Perry J,Ahearn M,et al.Contracts,Markets,and Prices:Organizing the Production and Use of Agriculture Commodities[R].USDA-ERS Agricultural Economic Report No.837,2004.
[11]Coase R H.The nature of the firm[J].Economica,1937,4(16):386-405.
[12]Cheung S N S.The contractual nature of the firm[J].Journal of Law and Economics,1983,26(1):1-21.
[13]Key N,Runsten D.Contract farming,smallholders and rural development in Latin America:The organization of agroprocessing firms and the scale of outgrower Production[J].World Development,1999,27(2):381-401.
[14]Warning M,Key N.The social performance and distributional consequences of contract farming:An equilibrium analysis of the Arachide De Bouche Program in Senegal[J].World Development,2002,30(2):255-263.
[15]Masakure O,Henson S.Why do small-scale producers choose to produce under contract?Lessons from nontraditional vegetable exports from Zimbabwe[J].World Development,2005,33(10):1721-1733.
[16]Peter L D,Michael W J.Living under Contract:Contract Farming and Agrarian Transformation in the Sub-saharan Africa[M].Madison:The University of Wisconsin Press,1994.
[17]Simmons P,Winters P,Patrick I.An analysis of contract farming in East Java,Bail and Lombok,Indoesia[J].Agricultural Economics,2005,33(3):512-525.
[18]Miyata S,Minot N,Hu D.Impact of contract farming on income:Linking small farmers,packers,and supermarkets in China[J].World Development,2009,37(11):1781-1790.
[19]Singh S.Contracting out solutions:Political economy of contract farming in the Indian Punjab[J].World Development,2002,30(9):1621-1638.
[20]Guo H,Jolly R W,Zhu J.Contract Farming in China,Supply Chain or Ball and Chain?[C].Chicago:the 15th Annual World and Agribusiness Symposium,2005.
[21]Maertens M.Trade,Food Standards and Poverty:The Case of High-Value Vegetable Exports from Senegal[C].Gold Coast:International Association of Agricultural Economists Conference,2006.
[22]Glove D J.Contract farming and smallholder outgrower schemes in less developed countries[J].World Development,1984,12(11-12):1143-1157.
[23]Zylbersztajn D,Nadalini L B.Tomatoes and Courts:Strategy of the Agro-Industry Facing Weak Contract Enforcement[EB/OL].(2003-10)[2016-07-11].http://www.fundacaofia.com.br/pensa/anexos/biblioteca/632007145740_.pdf.
[24]Eaton C,Shepherd A W.Contract Farming:Partnerships for Growth[R].Rome:FAO Agricultural Services Bulletin No.145,2001.
[25]Gundlach G T,Ernest R C.Exchange interdependence and interfirm interaction:Research China simulated channel setting[J].Journal of Marketing Research,1994,31(4):516-532.
[26]Peter B,Ballebyeolesen H.Ten rules of thumb in contract design:Lessons from Danish agriculture[J].European Review of Agricultural Economics,2009,29(2):185-204.
[27]彭震伟.区域研究与区域规划[M].上海:同济大学出版社,1998.[Peng Z W.Regional Research and Regional Planning[M].Shanghai:Tongji University Press,1998.]
[28]翟向明,杨平,徐凌忠,等.中国农村居民禽流感认知情况及影响因素分析[J].中国卫生事业管理,2008,25(7):475-477.[Zhai X M,Yang P,Xu L Z,et al.Analyzing the cognition of avian influenza in Chinese rural areas and its influence factors[J].China Health Service Management,2008,25(7):475-477.]
[29]王瑜.养猪户的药物添加剂使用行为及其影响因素分析-基于江苏省542户农户的调查数据[J].农业技术经济,2009,(5):46-55.[Wang Y.Study on swine farmers'drug additive adoption behavior and influence factors:Evidence from 542 farmers from Jiangsu province[J].Journal of Agrotechnical Economics,2009,(5):46-55.]
[30]N?remark M,Fr?ssling J,Lewerin S S.Application of routines that contribute to on-farm biosecurity as reported by Swedish livestock farmers[J].Transboundary and Emerging Diseases,2010,57(4):225-236.
[31]Graunt J.Natural and Political Observations Made upon the Bills of Mortality[M].Baltimore:The Johns Hopkins Press,1939.
[32]Cox D R.Regression Models and life-tables(with discussion)[J].Journal of the Royal Statistical Society(Series B),1972,34:187-220.
[33]Anderson P K.Statistical Models Based on Counting Processes[M].Berlin:Springer-Verlag,1993.
[34]严若华,李卫.Cox回归模型比例风险假定的检验方法研究[J].中国卫生统计,2016,33(2):345-349.[Yan R H,Li W.Study on the assumption test method of cox proportional hazards regression model[J].China Health Statistics,2016,33(2):345-349.]
[35]G?nen M,Heller G.Concordance probability and discriminatory power in proportional hazards regression[J].Biometrika,2005,92(4):965-970.
[36]Slovic P.Perception of risk[J].Science,1987,236(4799):280-285.
[37]Bauer R A.Consumer Behavior as Risk Taking[A].Hancock R S.Dynamic Marketing for a Changing World[M].Chicago:American Marketing Association,1960.
[38]Taylor S E.Social Support:A Review[A].Friedman M S.The Handbook of Health Psychology[M].New York:Oxford University Press,2011.
[39]李强.社会支持与个体心理健康[J].天津社会科学,1998,(1):67-70.[Li Q.Social support and individual mental health[J].Tian Jin Social Science,1998,(1):67-70.]
[40]Angford C P H,Bowsher J,Maloney J P,et al.Social support:A conceptual analysis[J].Journal of Advanced Nursing,1997,25(1):95-100.
[41]肖水源,杨德森.社会支持对身心健康的影响[J].中国心理卫生杂志,1987,1(4):184-187.[Xiao S Y,Yang D S.The impact of social support on mental health[J].Journal of China Mental Health,1987,1(4):184-187.]
[42]韩军辉,李艳军.农户获知种子信息主渠道以及采用行为分析-以湖北省谷城县为例[J].农业技术经济,2005,(1):31-35.[Han J H,Li Y J.Analysis of farmers'perception of seed information channel and their adoption behavior-the case of Gucheng town in Hubei province[J].Journal of Agrotechnical Economics,2005,(1):31-35.]
[43]中国畜牧业年鉴编辑委员会.中国畜牧业年鉴[M].北京:中国农业出版社,2012-2015.[China Animal Industry Yearbook Editorial Board.China Animal Industry Yearbook 2012-2015[M].Beijing:China Agriculture Press,2012-2015.]
[44]Lin D Y,Wei L J.The robust inference for the cox proportional hazards model[J].Journal of the American Statistical Association,1989,84(408):1074-1078.
[45]Amair S I.Partial residuals for the proportional hazards regression model[J].Biornetrika,1982,69(1):264-268.
[2]Ajzen I.The theory of planned behavior[J].Research in Nursing&Health,1991,14(2):137-144.
[3]于乐荣,李小云,汪力斌.禽流感发生后家禽养殖农户的生产行为变化分析[J].农业经济问题,2009,(7):13-21.[Yu L R,Li X Y,Wang L B.Analysis on changes of poultry producers'production behavior after avian influenza outbreak[J].Issues in Agricultural Economy,2009,(7):13-21.]
[4]中华人民共和国国家统计局.中国统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,1977-2014.[National Bureau of Statistics of the People's Republic of China.China Statistical Yearbook 1977-2014[M].Beijing:China Statistics Press,1977-2014.]
[5]戴炜,胡浩,虞祎.我国肉鸡市场价格周期性波动分析[J].农业技术经济,2014,(5):12-20.[Dai W,Hu H,Yu Y.Analysis of period fluctuation of chicken price in China[J].Journal of Agrotechnical Economics,2014,(5):12-20.]
[6]辛翔飞,王济民.产业化对肉鸡养殖户收入影响的实证分析[J].农业技术经济,2013,(2):4-10.[Xin X F,Wang J M.Empirical analysis of the impact of industrialization on chicken farmers income[J].Journal of Agrotechnical Economics,2013,(2):4-10.]
[7]Guo H,Jolly R W.Contract Farming in China:Perspectives of Smallholders[C].Beijing:International Association of Agricultural Economists Conference,2009.
[8]FAOSTAT.Livestock Primary[EB/OL].(2016-06-10)[2016-07-11].http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QL.
[9]Erkan R,Vertical Coordination in the Agro-food Industry and Contract Farming:A Comparative Study of Turkey and the USA:Report of Food Marketing Policy Center Research[R].Storrs:University of Connecticut,2000.
[10]Macdonald J,Perry J,Ahearn M,et al.Contracts,Markets,and Prices:Organizing the Production and Use of Agriculture Commodities[R].USDA-ERS Agricultural Economic Report No.837,2004.
[11]Coase R H.The nature of the firm[J].Economica,1937,4(16):386-405.
[12]Cheung S N S.The contractual nature of the firm[J].Journal of Law and Economics,1983,26(1):1-21.
[13]Key N,Runsten D.Contract farming,smallholders and rural development in Latin America:The organization of agroprocessing firms and the scale of outgrower Production[J].World Development,1999,27(2):381-401.
[14]Warning M,Key N.The social performance and distributional consequences of contract farming:An equilibrium analysis of the Arachide De Bouche Program in Senegal[J].World Development,2002,30(2):255-263.
[15]Masakure O,Henson S.Why do small-scale producers choose to produce under contract?Lessons from nontraditional vegetable exports from Zimbabwe[J].World Development,2005,33(10):1721-1733.
[16]Peter L D,Michael W J.Living under Contract:Contract Farming and Agrarian Transformation in the Sub-saharan Africa[M].Madison:The University of Wisconsin Press,1994.
[17]Simmons P,Winters P,Patrick I.An analysis of contract farming in East Java,Bail and Lombok,Indoesia[J].Agricultural Economics,2005,33(3):512-525.
[18]Miyata S,Minot N,Hu D.Impact of contract farming on income:Linking small farmers,packers,and supermarkets in China[J].World Development,2009,37(11):1781-1790.
[19]Singh S.Contracting out solutions:Political economy of contract farming in the Indian Punjab[J].World Development,2002,30(9):1621-1638.
[20]Guo H,Jolly R W,Zhu J.Contract Farming in China,Supply Chain or Ball and Chain?[C].Chicago:the 15th Annual World and Agribusiness Symposium,2005.
[21]Maertens M.Trade,Food Standards and Poverty:The Case of High-Value Vegetable Exports from Senegal[C].Gold Coast:International Association of Agricultural Economists Conference,2006.
[22]Glove D J.Contract farming and smallholder outgrower schemes in less developed countries[J].World Development,1984,12(11-12):1143-1157.
[23]Zylbersztajn D,Nadalini L B.Tomatoes and Courts:Strategy of the Agro-Industry Facing Weak Contract Enforcement[EB/OL].(2003-10)[2016-07-11].http://www.fundacaofia.com.br/pensa/anexos/biblioteca/632007145740_.pdf.
[24]Eaton C,Shepherd A W.Contract Farming:Partnerships for Growth[R].Rome:FAO Agricultural Services Bulletin No.145,2001.
[25]Gundlach G T,Ernest R C.Exchange interdependence and interfirm interaction:Research China simulated channel setting[J].Journal of Marketing Research,1994,31(4):516-532.
[26]Peter B,Ballebyeolesen H.Ten rules of thumb in contract design:Lessons from Danish agriculture[J].European Review of Agricultural Economics,2009,29(2):185-204.
[27]彭震伟.区域研究与区域规划[M].上海:同济大学出版社,1998.[Peng Z W.Regional Research and Regional Planning[M].Shanghai:Tongji University Press,1998.]
[28]翟向明,杨平,徐凌忠,等.中国农村居民禽流感认知情况及影响因素分析[J].中国卫生事业管理,2008,25(7):475-477.[Zhai X M,Yang P,Xu L Z,et al.Analyzing the cognition of avian influenza in Chinese rural areas and its influence factors[J].China Health Service Management,2008,25(7):475-477.]
[29]王瑜.养猪户的药物添加剂使用行为及其影响因素分析-基于江苏省542户农户的调查数据[J].农业技术经济,2009,(5):46-55.[Wang Y.Study on swine farmers'drug additive adoption behavior and influence factors:Evidence from 542 farmers from Jiangsu province[J].Journal of Agrotechnical Economics,2009,(5):46-55.]
[30]N?remark M,Fr?ssling J,Lewerin S S.Application of routines that contribute to on-farm biosecurity as reported by Swedish livestock farmers[J].Transboundary and Emerging Diseases,2010,57(4):225-236.
[31]Graunt J.Natural and Political Observations Made upon the Bills of Mortality[M].Baltimore:The Johns Hopkins Press,1939.
[32]Cox D R.Regression Models and life-tables(with discussion)[J].Journal of the Royal Statistical Society(Series B),1972,34:187-220.
[33]Anderson P K.Statistical Models Based on Counting Processes[M].Berlin:Springer-Verlag,1993.
[34]严若华,李卫.Cox回归模型比例风险假定的检验方法研究[J].中国卫生统计,2016,33(2):345-349.[Yan R H,Li W.Study on the assumption test method of cox proportional hazards regression model[J].China Health Statistics,2016,33(2):345-349.]
[35]G?nen M,Heller G.Concordance probability and discriminatory power in proportional hazards regression[J].Biometrika,2005,92(4):965-970.
[36]Slovic P.Perception of risk[J].Science,1987,236(4799):280-285.
[37]Bauer R A.Consumer Behavior as Risk Taking[A].Hancock R S.Dynamic Marketing for a Changing World[M].Chicago:American Marketing Association,1960.
[38]Taylor S E.Social Support:A Review[A].Friedman M S.The Handbook of Health Psychology[M].New York:Oxford University Press,2011.
[39]李强.社会支持与个体心理健康[J].天津社会科学,1998,(1):67-70.[Li Q.Social support and individual mental health[J].Tian Jin Social Science,1998,(1):67-70.]
[40]Angford C P H,Bowsher J,Maloney J P,et al.Social support:A conceptual analysis[J].Journal of Advanced Nursing,1997,25(1):95-100.
[41]肖水源,杨德森.社会支持对身心健康的影响[J].中国心理卫生杂志,1987,1(4):184-187.[Xiao S Y,Yang D S.The impact of social support on mental health[J].Journal of China Mental Health,1987,1(4):184-187.]
[42]韩军辉,李艳军.农户获知种子信息主渠道以及采用行为分析-以湖北省谷城县为例[J].农业技术经济,2005,(1):31-35.[Han J H,Li Y J.Analysis of farmers'perception of seed information channel and their adoption behavior-the case of Gucheng town in Hubei province[J].Journal of Agrotechnical Economics,2005,(1):31-35.]
[43]中国畜牧业年鉴编辑委员会.中国畜牧业年鉴[M].北京:中国农业出版社,2012-2015.[China Animal Industry Yearbook Editorial Board.China Animal Industry Yearbook 2012-2015[M].Beijing:China Agriculture Press,2012-2015.]
[44]Lin D Y,Wei L J.The robust inference for the cox proportional hazards model[J].Journal of the American Statistical Association,1989,84(408):1074-1078.
[45]Amair S I.Partial residuals for the proportional hazards regression model[J].Biornetrika,1982,69(1):264-268.
© 2004-2018 中国地质图书馆版权所有 京ICP备05064691号 京公网安备11010802017129号 地址：北京市海淀区学院路29号 邮编：100083 电话：办公室：(+86 10)66554848；文献借阅、咨询服务、科技查新：66554700 |