中国对外直接投资的非物化型技术空间逆向溢出效应研究
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摘要
对外直接投资(OFDI)的逆向技术溢出方向与其物化型资本品输出方向相反,需就OFDI对东道国及母国溢出的技术类型进行区分。本文依据技术分类理论指出OFDI逆向溢出非物化型技术,并基于非物化型技术空间扩散属性,将Pottelsberghe and Lichtenberg(2001)的OFDI逆向技术外溢效应检验模型空间扩容,以中国30省2002-2015年的面板数据为样本,检验OFDI两阶段逆向技术外溢:进口贸易和FDI首阶段的局域技术外溢效应强于OFDI首阶段的局域非物化型技术外溢效应,OFDI在中国内陆区域间产生的二阶段广域非物化型技术外溢效应强于进口贸易和FDI的二阶段广域非物化型技术外溢效应,结论在置换6种不同空间权重后具有稳健性。基于研究结论,我们建议"走出去"优先"引进来",并从基础设施建设、制度改革和人力资本积累三方面完善非物化型技术空间溢出所需的软、硬件环境。
"Outward foreign direct investment"(OFDI) brings out embodied capital goods, but brings in un-embodied technology. We need to make a distinction between the types of technologies that OFDI overflows to host countries and home countries. Based on spatial spillover of un-embodied technology, the model constructed by Pottelsberghe and Lichtenberg(2001)is developed with space structure that is fitted by a panel data including Chinese 30 provinces from 2002 to 2015. The local technology spillover effect from capital goods import and foreign direct investment is bigger than that from outward foreign direct investment, but broad technology spillover effect of outward foreign direct investment is bigger than that of capital goods import and foreign direct investment. The above conclusion is robust when using 6 different spatial weighted matrices. So "outward foreign direct investment"(OFDI) is prior to attracting foreign investment and capital goods import. And infrastructure construction, restructuring institutions, human capital accumulation will all make a better condition for rapid spatial spillover of un-embodied technology.
"Outward foreign direct investment"(OFDI) brings out embodied capital goods, but brings in un-embodied technology. We need to make a distinction between the types of technologies that OFDI overflows to host countries and home countries. Based on spatial spillover of un-embodied technology, the model constructed by Pottelsberghe and Lichtenberg(2001)is developed with space structure that is fitted by a panel data including Chinese 30 provinces from 2002 to 2015. The local technology spillover effect from capital goods import and foreign direct investment is bigger than that from outward foreign direct investment, but broad technology spillover effect of outward foreign direct investment is bigger than that of capital goods import and foreign direct investment. The above conclusion is robust when using 6 different spatial weighted matrices. So "outward foreign direct investment"(OFDI) is prior to attracting foreign investment and capital goods import. And infrastructure construction, restructuring institutions, human capital accumulation will all make a better condition for rapid spatial spillover of un-embodied technology.
引文
[1]刘海云,聂飞.中国OFDI动机及其双向技术溢出基于二元边际的实证研究[J].世界经济研究,2015(6):102-110.
[2]林毅夫,任若恩.东亚经济增长模式相关争论的再探讨[J].经济研究,2007(8) :4-12.
[3]BRUCE KOGUT,SEA JIN CHANG.Technological capabilities and Japanese foreign direct investment in the United States[J].The Review of Economics and Statistics,1991,73(3):401-413.
[4]NEVEN D,SIOTIS G.Technology sourcing and FDI in the EC:An empirical evaluation[J].International Journal of Industrial Organization,1996,14(5):543-560.
[5]TEECE D J.Foreign Investment and technological development in Silicon Valley[J].California Management Review,1992,34(2):88-106.
[6]BRAUNERHJELM P,SVENSSON R.Host country characteristics and agglomeration in Foreign direct investment[J].Applied Economics,1996,28(7):833-840.
[7]CANTWELL J.Location and the multinational enterprise[J].Journal of International Business Studies,2009,40(1):35-41.
[8]FOSFURI A,MOTTA M.Multinationals without advantages[J].The Scandinavian Journal of Economics,1999,101(4):617-630.
[9]KIM J,AGUILERA R.Foreign location choice:Review and extensions[J].International Journal of Management Reviews,2016,18(2):133-159.
[10]COE D T,HELPMAN E,HOFFMAISTER A W.International R&D spillovers and institutions[J].European Economic Review,2009,53(7):723-741.
[11]LICHTENBERG F,POTTERIE B V P D L .International R&D spillovers:A comment[J].European Economic Review,1998,42(8):1483-1491.
[12]POTTERIE B V P D L,LICHTENBERG F.Does foreign direct investment transfer technology across borders?[J].Review of Economics and Statistics,2001,83(3):490-497.
[13]LEE G.The effectiveness of international knowledge spillover channels[J].European Economic Review,2006,50(8):2075-2088.
[14] JüRGEN BITZER,KEREKES M.Does foreign direct investment transfer technology across borders?New evidence[J].Economics Letters,2008,100(3):355-358.
[15]王英,刘思峰.中国ODI反向技术外溢效应的实证分析[J].科学学研究,2008(2):294-298.
[16]李梅,柳士昌.对外直接投资逆向技术溢出的地区差异和门槛效应基于中国省际面板数据的门槛回归分析[J].管理世界,2012(1):21-32.
[17]沈能,赵增耀.空间异质性假定下OFDI逆向技术溢出的门槛效应[J].科研管理,2013(12):1-7.
[18]王恕立,向姣姣.对外直接投资逆向技术溢出与全要素生产率:基于不同投资动机的经验分析[J].国际贸易问题,2014(9):109-119.
[19]李梅,袁小艺,张易.制度环境与对外直接投资逆向技术溢出[J].世界经济研究,2014(2):61-66.
[20]李梅.金融发展、对外直接投资与母国生产率增长[J].中国软科学,2014(11):170-182.
[21]衣长军,李赛,张吉鹏.制度环境、吸收能力与新兴经济体OFDI逆向技术溢出效应基于中国省际面板数据的门槛检验[J].财经研究,2015(11):4-19.
[22]尹东东,张建清.我国对外直接投资逆向技术溢出效应研究基于吸收能力视角的实证分析[J].国际贸易问题,2016(1):109-120.
[23]李杏,钟亮.对外直接投资的逆向技术溢出效应研究基于中国行业异质性的门槛回归分析[J].山西财经大学学报,2016(11):1-12.
[24]陈昊,吴雯.中国OFDI国别差异与母国技术进步[J].科学学研究,2016(1):49-56.
[25]汪思齐,王恕立.制造业双向FDI生产率效应的行业差异及人力资本门槛估计[J].经济评论,2017(2):102-114.
[26]BEATA SMARZYNSKA JAVORCIK.Does Foreign direct investment increase the productivity of domestic firms?In Search of Spillovers through Bacward Linkages[J].American Economic Review,2004,94(3):605-627.
[27]ANDERSON J,SUTHERLAND D,SEVERE S.An event study of home and host country patent generation in Chinese MNEs undertaking strategic asset acquisitions in developed markets[J].International Business Review,2015,24(5):758-771.
[28]VERSPAGEN,B.A New empirical approach to catching up or falling behind[J].Structural Change and Economic Dynamics,1991,2(2):359-380.
[29]DOSI G.Sources,Procedures,and microeconomic effects of innovation[J].Journal of Economic Literature,1988,26(3):1120-1171.
[30]梁琦.知识溢出的空间局限性与集聚[J].科学学研究,2004(1):76-81.
[31]ALMEIDA P,KOGUT B.Localization of knowledge and the mobility of engineers in regional networks[J].Management Science,1999,45(7):905-917.
[32]SAHOTA GS.An economic analysis of internal migration in Brazil[J].Journal of Political Economy,1968,76(2):218-245.
[33]徐超.高等教育扩展对劳动力流动的影响基于省级面板数据的实证分析[J].西北人口,2015(4):40-45.
[34]刘舜佳,生延超.外商直接投资隐性知识空间溢出基于修正的Lichtenberg-Pottelsberghe模型估计[J].研究与发展管理,2014(6):54-66.
[35] OLIVIER PARENT,JAMES P.Lesage.Using the variance structure of the conditional autoregressive spatial specification to model knowledge spillovers[J].Journal of Applied Econometrics,2008,23(2):235-256.
[36] ALFARO LCAK.FDI and economic growth:The role of local financial markets[J].Journal of International Economics,2004.64(1):89-112.
[37]方颖,赵扬.寻找制度的工具变量:估计产权保护对中国经济增长的贡献[J].经济研究,2011(5):138-148.
[38] LESAGE JPRK.Introduction to spatial econometrics[J].2009:CRC Press.
[39] 刘舜佳.进口贸易研发知识二次溢出的空间测度基于Coe-Helpman-Durbin模型的检验[J].南方经济,2013(8):57-68.
[40]FARE RSGM.Productivity growth,technical progress,and efficiency change in industrialized countries[J].American Economic Review,1994.84(1):66-83.
[41]单豪杰.中国资本存量K的再估算:1952[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2008(10):17-31.
[42]王少国,潘恩阳.人力资本积累、企业创新与中等收入陷阱[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017(5):153-160.
[43]GRILICHES Z.Issues in assessing the contribution of research and development to productivity growth[J].The Bell Journal of Economics,1979.10(1):92-116.
[44]MUR J ANGULO.Model selection strategies in a spatial setting:Some additional results[J].Regional Science & Urban Economics,2009.39(2):200-213.
[45]ELHORSTPJ.Matlab software for spatial panels[J].International Regional Science Review,2012.8(1):56-72.
[46]陈柏福,邓子璇,杨建清.改革开放40年以来我国对外文化贸易政策变迁研究[J].中国软科学,2018(10):39-51.
[47]王一鸣等.高质量发展:宏观经济形势展望与打好三大攻坚战[M].北京:中国发展出版社,2018:4-5.
(1)数据来源于《2017年度中国外对直接投资统计公报》。
(2)数据来源于《2017年度中国外对直接投资统计公报》。
(3)数据来源于《2017年度中国外对直接投资统计公报》。
(4)FDI与OFDI都属于国际直接投资,两者区别在于FDI是基于东道国引进国际直接投资的角度定义,而OFDI是基于母国输出国际直接投资的角度定义。
(5)确保OLS结果无偏性的关键假定“零条件均值”,即意味着模型误差项当中不应包含与模型自变量具有强相关性的遗漏变量,否则引发模型内生性问题(Endogenous)。
(6)虽然进口贸易与FDI给东道国带来物化型资本品设备,但也会给东道国引进意识和经验等非物化型技术,因此进口贸易与FDI的技术外溢也不会仅局限于贸易和投资所在地,也会产生区域间溢出效应,刘舜佳(2013)、刘舜佳和生延超(2014)在Coe and Helpman(1995)、Pottelsberghe and Lichtenberg(1998)经典模型上的扩展研究就证实了这一点,也包括对本国知识资本存量局域和广域溢出效应的测度[34,39]。
(7)加拿大、法国、德国、意大利、日本、英国、美国、澳大利亚、比利时、芬兰、爱尔兰、以色列、韩国、荷兰、葡萄牙、西班牙和土耳其。
(8)模型估计时仅自变量均采用自然对数形式。
[2]林毅夫,任若恩.东亚经济增长模式相关争论的再探讨[J].经济研究,2007(8) :4-12.
[3]BRUCE KOGUT,SEA JIN CHANG.Technological capabilities and Japanese foreign direct investment in the United States[J].The Review of Economics and Statistics,1991,73(3):401-413.
[4]NEVEN D,SIOTIS G.Technology sourcing and FDI in the EC:An empirical evaluation[J].International Journal of Industrial Organization,1996,14(5):543-560.
[5]TEECE D J.Foreign Investment and technological development in Silicon Valley[J].California Management Review,1992,34(2):88-106.
[6]BRAUNERHJELM P,SVENSSON R.Host country characteristics and agglomeration in Foreign direct investment[J].Applied Economics,1996,28(7):833-840.
[7]CANTWELL J.Location and the multinational enterprise[J].Journal of International Business Studies,2009,40(1):35-41.
[8]FOSFURI A,MOTTA M.Multinationals without advantages[J].The Scandinavian Journal of Economics,1999,101(4):617-630.
[9]KIM J,AGUILERA R.Foreign location choice:Review and extensions[J].International Journal of Management Reviews,2016,18(2):133-159.
[10]COE D T,HELPMAN E,HOFFMAISTER A W.International R&D spillovers and institutions[J].European Economic Review,2009,53(7):723-741.
[11]LICHTENBERG F,POTTERIE B V P D L .International R&D spillovers:A comment[J].European Economic Review,1998,42(8):1483-1491.
[12]POTTERIE B V P D L,LICHTENBERG F.Does foreign direct investment transfer technology across borders?[J].Review of Economics and Statistics,2001,83(3):490-497.
[13]LEE G.The effectiveness of international knowledge spillover channels[J].European Economic Review,2006,50(8):2075-2088.
[14] JüRGEN BITZER,KEREKES M.Does foreign direct investment transfer technology across borders?New evidence[J].Economics Letters,2008,100(3):355-358.
[15]王英,刘思峰.中国ODI反向技术外溢效应的实证分析[J].科学学研究,2008(2):294-298.
[16]李梅,柳士昌.对外直接投资逆向技术溢出的地区差异和门槛效应基于中国省际面板数据的门槛回归分析[J].管理世界,2012(1):21-32.
[17]沈能,赵增耀.空间异质性假定下OFDI逆向技术溢出的门槛效应[J].科研管理,2013(12):1-7.
[18]王恕立,向姣姣.对外直接投资逆向技术溢出与全要素生产率:基于不同投资动机的经验分析[J].国际贸易问题,2014(9):109-119.
[19]李梅,袁小艺,张易.制度环境与对外直接投资逆向技术溢出[J].世界经济研究,2014(2):61-66.
[20]李梅.金融发展、对外直接投资与母国生产率增长[J].中国软科学,2014(11):170-182.
[21]衣长军,李赛,张吉鹏.制度环境、吸收能力与新兴经济体OFDI逆向技术溢出效应基于中国省际面板数据的门槛检验[J].财经研究,2015(11):4-19.
[22]尹东东,张建清.我国对外直接投资逆向技术溢出效应研究基于吸收能力视角的实证分析[J].国际贸易问题,2016(1):109-120.
[23]李杏,钟亮.对外直接投资的逆向技术溢出效应研究基于中国行业异质性的门槛回归分析[J].山西财经大学学报,2016(11):1-12.
[24]陈昊,吴雯.中国OFDI国别差异与母国技术进步[J].科学学研究,2016(1):49-56.
[25]汪思齐,王恕立.制造业双向FDI生产率效应的行业差异及人力资本门槛估计[J].经济评论,2017(2):102-114.
[26]BEATA SMARZYNSKA JAVORCIK.Does Foreign direct investment increase the productivity of domestic firms?In Search of Spillovers through Bacward Linkages[J].American Economic Review,2004,94(3):605-627.
[27]ANDERSON J,SUTHERLAND D,SEVERE S.An event study of home and host country patent generation in Chinese MNEs undertaking strategic asset acquisitions in developed markets[J].International Business Review,2015,24(5):758-771.
[28]VERSPAGEN,B.A New empirical approach to catching up or falling behind[J].Structural Change and Economic Dynamics,1991,2(2):359-380.
[29]DOSI G.Sources,Procedures,and microeconomic effects of innovation[J].Journal of Economic Literature,1988,26(3):1120-1171.
[30]梁琦.知识溢出的空间局限性与集聚[J].科学学研究,2004(1):76-81.
[31]ALMEIDA P,KOGUT B.Localization of knowledge and the mobility of engineers in regional networks[J].Management Science,1999,45(7):905-917.
[32]SAHOTA GS.An economic analysis of internal migration in Brazil[J].Journal of Political Economy,1968,76(2):218-245.
[33]徐超.高等教育扩展对劳动力流动的影响基于省级面板数据的实证分析[J].西北人口,2015(4):40-45.
[34]刘舜佳,生延超.外商直接投资隐性知识空间溢出基于修正的Lichtenberg-Pottelsberghe模型估计[J].研究与发展管理,2014(6):54-66.
[35] OLIVIER PARENT,JAMES P.Lesage.Using the variance structure of the conditional autoregressive spatial specification to model knowledge spillovers[J].Journal of Applied Econometrics,2008,23(2):235-256.
[36] ALFARO LCAK.FDI and economic growth:The role of local financial markets[J].Journal of International Economics,2004.64(1):89-112.
[37]方颖,赵扬.寻找制度的工具变量:估计产权保护对中国经济增长的贡献[J].经济研究,2011(5):138-148.
[38] LESAGE JPRK.Introduction to spatial econometrics[J].2009:CRC Press.
[39] 刘舜佳.进口贸易研发知识二次溢出的空间测度基于Coe-Helpman-Durbin模型的检验[J].南方经济,2013(8):57-68.
[40]FARE RSGM.Productivity growth,technical progress,and efficiency change in industrialized countries[J].American Economic Review,1994.84(1):66-83.
[41]单豪杰.中国资本存量K的再估算:1952[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2008(10):17-31.
[42]王少国,潘恩阳.人力资本积累、企业创新与中等收入陷阱[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017(5):153-160.
[43]GRILICHES Z.Issues in assessing the contribution of research and development to productivity growth[J].The Bell Journal of Economics,1979.10(1):92-116.
[44]MUR J ANGULO.Model selection strategies in a spatial setting:Some additional results[J].Regional Science & Urban Economics,2009.39(2):200-213.
[45]ELHORSTPJ.Matlab software for spatial panels[J].International Regional Science Review,2012.8(1):56-72.
[46]陈柏福,邓子璇,杨建清.改革开放40年以来我国对外文化贸易政策变迁研究[J].中国软科学,2018(10):39-51.
[47]王一鸣等.高质量发展:宏观经济形势展望与打好三大攻坚战[M].北京:中国发展出版社,2018:4-5.
(1)数据来源于《2017年度中国外对直接投资统计公报》。
(2)数据来源于《2017年度中国外对直接投资统计公报》。
(3)数据来源于《2017年度中国外对直接投资统计公报》。
(4)FDI与OFDI都属于国际直接投资,两者区别在于FDI是基于东道国引进国际直接投资的角度定义,而OFDI是基于母国输出国际直接投资的角度定义。
(5)确保OLS结果无偏性的关键假定“零条件均值”,即意味着模型误差项当中不应包含与模型自变量具有强相关性的遗漏变量,否则引发模型内生性问题(Endogenous)。
(6)虽然进口贸易与FDI给东道国带来物化型资本品设备,但也会给东道国引进意识和经验等非物化型技术,因此进口贸易与FDI的技术外溢也不会仅局限于贸易和投资所在地,也会产生区域间溢出效应,刘舜佳(2013)、刘舜佳和生延超(2014)在Coe and Helpman(1995)、Pottelsberghe and Lichtenberg(1998)经典模型上的扩展研究就证实了这一点,也包括对本国知识资本存量局域和广域溢出效应的测度[34,39]。
(7)加拿大、法国、德国、意大利、日本、英国、美国、澳大利亚、比利时、芬兰、爱尔兰、以色列、韩国、荷兰、葡萄牙、西班牙和土耳其。
(8)模型估计时仅自变量均采用自然对数形式。