改革开放以来我国粮食生产转型分析及展望
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摘要
粮食生产转型是乡村生产体系演变的核心内容,以粮食生产转型研究为突破口能够清晰反映区域乡村人地关系的演化过程,为深化城乡融合发展和乡村转型发展研究提供新的视角。本文聚焦我国改革开放以来粮食生产转型历程,并尝试构建我国粮食生产转型的分析框架。研究发现,改革开放以来我国粮食生产转型呈现出"以粮为纲—农业结构调整—综合转型—城乡互动"四个差异化阶段特征。利用GL-RL模型,构建了我国粮食生产转型的分析框架。研究发现,改革开放以来我国粮食生产由Green Loop阶段演化到Red Loop阶段,粮食生产逐渐由本地生产融入到城乡生产网络,驱动粮食生产转型的扰动因素具有多时空尺度特征和跨尺度效应。城乡融合发展、乡村振兴战略、乡村人地关系协调和全球化等因素将会对未来粮食生产转型产生重要影响。此外,优化粮食生产转型与乡村转型发展的关系,将为保障粮食生产有序转型,完善乡村生产体系创造条件。
The grain production transformation is the core content of the evolution of the rural production system. The breakthrough of grain production transformation research can clearly reflect the evolution of regional rural man-land interactions, and provide a new perspective for deepening urban-rural integration and rural transformation. Based on the analysis of grain production transformation since China's reform and opening-up, this paper attempts to construct an analytical framework for China's grain production transformation. We identified four stages in transformation process of grain production, namely, grain as the key link,gricultural restructuring, comprehensive transformation and urban-rural integration. Using GLRL model, the analytical framework of China's grain production transformation was constructed. It was found that the grain production evolved from "Green Loop" stage to "Red Loop" stage, which was gradually integrated from rural local production network into urbanrural production network. In addition, the disturbance factors driving the grain production transformation have multiple spatial-temporal features and cross-scale effects. Factors such as urban-rural integration development, rural vitalization strategy, rural man-land interactions, and globalization will have an important impact on future grain production transformation.Furthermore, optimizing the relationship between grain production and rural transformation provides guarantees for safeguarding the orderly transformation of grain production, and improving the conditions for creating the rural production system.
The grain production transformation is the core content of the evolution of the rural production system. The breakthrough of grain production transformation research can clearly reflect the evolution of regional rural man-land interactions, and provide a new perspective for deepening urban-rural integration and rural transformation. Based on the analysis of grain production transformation since China's reform and opening-up, this paper attempts to construct an analytical framework for China's grain production transformation. We identified four stages in transformation process of grain production, namely, grain as the key link,gricultural restructuring, comprehensive transformation and urban-rural integration. Using GLRL model, the analytical framework of China's grain production transformation was constructed. It was found that the grain production evolved from "Green Loop" stage to "Red Loop" stage, which was gradually integrated from rural local production network into urbanrural production network. In addition, the disturbance factors driving the grain production transformation have multiple spatial-temporal features and cross-scale effects. Factors such as urban-rural integration development, rural vitalization strategy, rural man-land interactions, and globalization will have an important impact on future grain production transformation.Furthermore, optimizing the relationship between grain production and rural transformation provides guarantees for safeguarding the orderly transformation of grain production, and improving the conditions for creating the rural production system.
引文
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(1)数据来源于世界银行数据集(http://data.worldbank.org.cn/indicator)。本文粮食生产数据为有效使用的国内统计数据,其概念包含谷物、豆类和薯类,而世界银行数据集仅统计了谷物产量。
[2]成升魁,李云云,刘晓洁,等.关于新时代我国粮食安全观的思考.自然资源学报,2018,33(6):911-926.[CHENG SK,LI Y Y,LIU X J,et al.Thoughts on food security in China in the new period.Journal of Natural Resources,2018,33(6):911-926.]
[3]JIAO X Q,HE G,CUI Z L,et al.Agri-environment policy for grain production in China:Toward sustainable intensification.China Agricultural Economic Review,2018,10:78-92.
[4]GE D,LONG H,ZHANG Y,et al.Farmland transition and its influences on grain production in China.Land Use Policy,2018,70:94-105.
[5]LONG H,TU S,GE D,et al.The allocation and management of critical resources in rural China under restructuring:Problems and prospects.Journal of Rural Studies,2016,47:392-412.
[6]蔡昉.农业劳动力转移潜力耗尽了吗?.中国农村经济,2018,(9):2-13.[CAI F.Has China's labor mobility exhausted its momentum?.Chinese Rural Economy,2018,(9):2-13.]
[7]李亚婷,潘少奇,苗长虹.中国县域人均粮食占有量的时空格局:基于户籍人口和常住人口的对比分析.地理学报,2014,69(12):1753-1766.[LI Y T,PAN S Q,MIAO C H.The spatial-temporal patterns of per capita share of grain at the county level in China:A comparation between registered population and resident population.Acta Geographica Sinica,2014,69(12):1753-1766.]
[8]谢高地,成升魁,肖玉,等.新时期中国粮食供需平衡态势及粮食安全观的重构.自然资源学报,2017,32(6):895-903.[XIE G D,CHENG S K,XIAO Y,et al.The balance between grain supply and demand and the reconstruction of China's food security strategy in the new period.Journal of Natural Resources,2017,32(6):895-903.]
[9]WEST P C,GERBER J S,ENGSTROM P M,et al.Leverage points for improving global food security and the environment.Science,2014,345,325-328.
[10]GU B,LEACH A M,MA L,et al.Nitrogen footprint in China:Food,energy,and nonfood goods.Environmental Science&Technology,2013,47,9217-9224.
[11]刘彦随.新时代城乡融合与乡村振兴.地理学报,2018,73(4):637-650.[LIU Y S.Research on the urban-rural integration and rural revitalization in the new era in China.Acta Geographica Sinica,2018,73(4):637-650.]
[12]刘守英,王一鸽.从乡土中国到城乡中国:中国转型的乡村变迁视角.管理世界,2018,(10):128-146.[LIU S Y,WANG Y G.From rural China to urban-rural China:A perspective of rural transformation in China's transition.Management World,2018,(10):128-146.]
[13]戈大专,龙花楼,李裕瑞,等.城镇化进程中我国粮食生产系统多功能转型时空格局研究:以黄淮海地区为例.经济地理,2018,38(4):147-156.[GE D Z,LONG H L,LI Y R,et al.The spatio-temporal pattern of multifunctional transformation of China's grain production system in the process of urbanization:The case of Huang-Huai-Hai Plain.Economic Geography,2018,38(4):147-156.]
[14]LONG H,LI Y,LIU Y,et al.Accelerated restructuring in rural China fueled by"increasing vs.decreasing balance"landuse policy for dealing with hollowed villages.Land Use Policy,2012,29(1):11-22.
[15]黄季焜.四十年中国农业发展改革和未来政策选择.农业技术经济,2018,(3):4-15.[HUANG J K.Forty years of China's agricultural development and reform and the way forward in the future.Journal of Agrotechnical Economics,2018,(3):4-15.]
[16]叶兴庆.我国农业经营体制的40年演变与未来走向.农业经济问题,2018,(6):8-17.[YE X Q.China's agricultural management system in 40 years:Historical development and future directions.Issues in Agricultural Economy,2018,(6):8-17.]
[17]蒋和平.改革开放四十年来我国农业农村现代化发展与未来发展思路.农业经济问题,2018,(8):51-59.[JIANG HP.Achievement and future development ideas of modernization construction in China's rural areas since reform and opening-up.Issues in Agricultural Economy,2018,(8):51-59.]
[18]刘彦随,张紫雯,王介勇.中国农业地域分异与现代农业区划方案.地理学报,2018,73(2):203-218.[LIU Y S,ZHANG Z W,WANG J Y.Regional differentiation and comprehensive regionalization scheme of modern agriculture in China.Acta Geographica Sinica,2018,73(2):203-218.]
[19]李政通,姚成胜,梁龙武.中国粮食生产的区域类型和生产模式演变分析.地理研究,2018,37(5):937-953.[LI Z T,YAO C S,LIANG L W.Analysis on regional types of grain production and evolution of grain production models in China.Geographical Research,2018,37(5):937-953.]
[20]龙花楼,张英男,屠爽爽.论土地整治与乡村振兴.地理学报,2018,73(10):1837-1849.[LONG H L,ZHANG Y N,TU S S.Land consolidation and rural vitalization.Acta Geographica Sinica,2018,73(10):1837-1849.]
[21]王成,马小苏,唐宁,等.农户行为视角下的乡村生产空间系统运行机制及重构启示.地理科学进展,2018,37(5):636-646.[WANG C,MA X S,TANG N,et al.Operational mechanism and restructuring of rural production space system from the perspective of farming household behavior.Progress in Geography,2018,37(5):636-646.]
[22]ZHANG J.China's success in increasing per capita food production.Journal of Experimental Botany,2011,62,3707-3711.
[23]HOLDAWAY J.Urbanisation,rural transformations and food security:The view from China.IIED,2017,Working Paper.
[24]SONG Y,QI G,ZHANG Y,et al.Farmer cooperatives in China:Diverse pathways to sustainable rural development.International Journal of Agricultural Sustainability,2013,12(2):95-108.
[25]杨进,吴比,金松青,等.中国农业机械化发展对粮食播种面积的影响.中国农村经济,2018,(3):89-104.[YANG J,WU B,JIN S Q,et al.The impact of agricultural mechanization on structure adjustment of grain in China.Chinese Rural Economy,2018,(3):89-104.]
[26]戈大专,龙花楼,张英男,等.中国县域粮食产量与农业劳动力变化的格局及其耦合关系.地理学报,2017,72(6):1063-1077.[GE D Z,LONG H L,ZHANG Y N,et al.Pattern and coupling relationship between grain yield and agricultural labor changes at county level in China.Acta Geographica Sinica,2017,72(6),1063-1077.]
[27]谭雪兰,安悦,苏洋,等.长株潭地区农业功能的时空变化特征及发展策略研究.地理科学,2018,38(5):708-716.[TAN X L,AN Y,SU Y et al.Spatio-temporal dynamics of agricultural function in Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomerations.Scientia Geographica Sinica,2018,38(5):708-716.]
[28]CUMMING G S,BUERKERT A,HOFFMANN E M,et al.Implications of agricultural transitions and urbanization for ecosystem services.Nature,2014,515:50-57.
[29]CUMMING G S,VON CRAMON-TAUBADEL S.Linking economic growth pathways and environmental sustainability by understanding development as alternate social-ecological regimes.PNAS,2018,115:9533-9538.
[30]HAMANN M,BIGGS R,REYERS B.Mapping social-ecological systems:Identifying"green-loop"and"red-loop"dynamics based on characteristic bundles of ecosystem service use.Global Environmental Change,2015,34:218-226.
[31]GE D,LONG H,MA L,et al.Analysis framework of China's grain production system:A spatial resilience perspective.Sustainability,2017,9(12),2340,doi:10.3390/su9122340.
[32]SPRINGMANN M,CLARK M,MASON-D'CROZ D,et al.Options for keeping the food system within environmental limits.Nature,2018,562:519-525.
[33]ZUO L,WANG X,ZHANG Z,et al.Developing grain production policy in terms of multiple cropping systems in China.Land Use Policy,2014,40:140-146.
[34]LI Q,LIU Z,ZANDER P,et al.Does farmland conversion improve or impair household livelihood in smallholder agriculture system?:A case study of Grain for Green project impacts in China's Loess Plateau.World Development Perspectives,2016,2:43-54.
[35]TENDALL D M,JOERIN J,KOPAINSKY B,et al.Food system resilience:Defining the concept.Global Food Security,2015,6:17-23.
[36]傅伯杰.地理学综合研究的途径与方法:格局与过程耦合.地理学报,2014,69(8):1052-1059.[FU B J.The integrated studies of geography:Coupling of patterns and processes.Acta Geographica Sinica,2014,69(8):1052-1059.]
[37]CUMMING G S.Spatial resilience:Integrating landscape ecology,resilience,and sustainability.Landscape Ecology,2011,26(7):899-909.
[38]刘建国,HULL V,BATISTELLA M,等.远程耦合世界的可持续性框架.生态学报,2016,36(23):7870-7885.[LIU JG,HULL V,BATISTELLA M,et al.Telecoupling sustainability framework in Chinese final.Acta Ecologica Sinica,2016,36(23):7870-7885.]
[39]SUWEIS S,CARR J A,MARITAN A,et al.Resilience and reactivity of global food security.PANS,2015,112(22):6902-6907.
[40]BARNES A,NEL V.Putting spatial resilience into practice.Urban Forum,2017,28(2):219-232.
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(1)数据来源于世界银行数据集(http://data.worldbank.org.cn/indicator)。本文粮食生产数据为有效使用的国内统计数据,其概念包含谷物、豆类和薯类,而世界银行数据集仅统计了谷物产量。