传统节会的声誉溢出效应:基于Kreps-Milgrom-Roberts-Wilson声誉模型
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摘要
中国经济繁荣带来传统节会复苏,但是传统节会市场的鱼龙混杂导致传统节会声誉参差不齐,该现象引起了政府部门的重视和学术界的关注.现有文献侧重于对节会概念、意义、文化层面的讨论,缺乏对节会声誉问题的研究,因此本文参考Kreps-Milgrom-Roberts-Wilson声誉模型,在四个基本假设基础上建立了传统节会的声誉模型,分析了传统节会的声誉溢出效应及均衡条件.研究发现:第一,参与者认为传统节会承办方的声誉越好,承办方选择不欺骗参与者的概率就越大,承办方建立声誉的积极性也就越高;第二,一旦承办方出现欺骗参与者的行为,参与者就会认为其是弱承办方,在下一期承办方会失去参与者的信任,从而失去长期获利的机会;第三,无论是强承办方还是弱承办方,不去欺骗参与者才是最优选择,此时承办方和参与者可以实现合作共赢,这是一种更有效率的文化旅游发展模式.因此,文章提出了建立传统节会声誉评价制度与信息公开制度、加强对传统节会的监管以及完善相关法律法规的政策建议.
Economic prosperity in China brings about revival of traditional festivals,but mess in the traditional festival markets make reputations of traditional festivals uneven,which draws common attention of government sectors and academia.Current literatures focus on the discussion about conception,value,and culture of some kind of traditional festival,but lack in the researches on the problem of festival reputation.This paper consults the reputation model of Kreps-Milgrom-Roberts-Wilson,constructs a reputation model of traditional festivals based on four basic assumptions,and analyzes reputation spillover effect of traditional festivals and its equilibrium conditions.It is shown that,at first,the better the reputation of the hosts,the more probability that the hosts choose not to cheat participants,and then the more enthusiasm that the hosts go after;secondly,the participants will recognize them as weak hosts once the hosts cheat the participants,and the hosts will lost the trusts of the participants in the next festival and their accompanying chances to make profits;thirdly,choosing not to cheat participants is a best choice for strong and weak hosts,when the hosts and the participants will achieve a collaborative win-win,which is a more effective developing mode of cultural tourism.Therefore,this paper puts forward those suggestions of setting up systems of reputation assessment and opening information of traditional festivals,strengthening supervision on traditional festivals and improving the concerned laws and regulations.
Economic prosperity in China brings about revival of traditional festivals,but mess in the traditional festival markets make reputations of traditional festivals uneven,which draws common attention of government sectors and academia.Current literatures focus on the discussion about conception,value,and culture of some kind of traditional festival,but lack in the researches on the problem of festival reputation.This paper consults the reputation model of Kreps-Milgrom-Roberts-Wilson,constructs a reputation model of traditional festivals based on four basic assumptions,and analyzes reputation spillover effect of traditional festivals and its equilibrium conditions.It is shown that,at first,the better the reputation of the hosts,the more probability that the hosts choose not to cheat participants,and then the more enthusiasm that the hosts go after;secondly,the participants will recognize them as weak hosts once the hosts cheat the participants,and the hosts will lost the trusts of the participants in the next festival and their accompanying chances to make profits;thirdly,choosing not to cheat participants is a best choice for strong and weak hosts,when the hosts and the participants will achieve a collaborative win-win,which is a more effective developing mode of cultural tourism.Therefore,this paper puts forward those suggestions of setting up systems of reputation assessment and opening information of traditional festivals,strengthening supervision on traditional festivals and improving the concerned laws and regulations.
引文
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[12]胡新平,张黎黎.第三方回收商声誉效应的闭环供应链激励机制研究[J].商业研究,2011(1):128-134.
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[14]常丽娟,屈雯.声誉效应视角下高管机会主义行为对企业财物绩效水平的影响---来自沪、深A股的实证研究[J].工业技术经济,2015(11):130-138.
[15]马北玲,粟路军.旅游地声誉与旅游者忠诚关系研究[J].经济地理,2014,34(8):173-179.
[16]粟路军,黄福才.旅游地社会责任、声誉、认同与旅游者忠诚关系[J].旅游学刊,2012,27(10):53-64.
[2]卢福财,胡平波.网络组织成员合作的声誉模型分析[J].中国工业经济,2005(2):73-79.
[3]雷亚萍,李彩凤.声誉模型在专业化人力资本形成中的应用[J].预测,2007,26(1):73-76.
[4]陈英存.基于KMRW声誉模型的公司声誉维持分析---以房地产中介公司交易欺诈为例[J].重庆理工大学学报(社会科学版),2011,25(4):38-42.
[5]徐梦丹.基于代理人市场---声誉模型的医生道德风险治理研究[J].中国卫生事业管理,2014,31(8):600-602.
[6]石少涛.“节会”与非物质文化遗产保护---以辽宁省2009年开展的“节会”活动为例[J].学理论,2010,(14):122-123.
[7]黄静.缅族传统节会的文化学研究[D].南宁:广西民族大学外国语学院,2012.
[8]赵念念.传统节庆民俗旅游资源的创新开发策略[J].东南大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2014,16(s2):49-51.
[9]范秀罗.中国传统节庆旅游利用研究[D].泉州:华侨大学旅游学院,2015.
[10]DIAMOND D W.Reputation acquisition in debt markets[J].Journal of Political Economy,1989,97(4):828-862.
[11]BERTELS S,PELOZA J.Running just to stand still?managing CSR reputation in an era of ratcheting expectations[J].Corporate Reputation Review,2008,11(1):56-72.
[12]胡新平,张黎黎.第三方回收商声誉效应的闭环供应链激励机制研究[J].商业研究,2011(1):128-134.
[13]周孝,冯中越.声誉效应与食品安全水平的关系研究---来自中国驰名商标的经验证据[J].经济与管理研究,2014(6):111-122.
[14]常丽娟,屈雯.声誉效应视角下高管机会主义行为对企业财物绩效水平的影响---来自沪、深A股的实证研究[J].工业技术经济,2015(11):130-138.
[15]马北玲,粟路军.旅游地声誉与旅游者忠诚关系研究[J].经济地理,2014,34(8):173-179.
[16]粟路军,黄福才.旅游地社会责任、声誉、认同与旅游者忠诚关系[J].旅游学刊,2012,27(10):53-64.