一种城市燃气管网泄漏风险动态计算模型
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摘要
为科学地评估并及时控制城市燃气管网泄漏的风险,采用贝叶斯网络(BN)与地理信息系统(GIS)相结合的方法,建立燃气管网泄漏风险动态计算模型。首先,利用故障树(FT)系统地分析管网泄漏事故,考虑到管网服役时间和外界干扰事件的动态性,将建成的FT映射到BN中,进而动态计算燃气管网的泄漏概率;然后运用GIS技术对管网泄漏后果的严重度指标进行赋值,并将动态泄漏概率和后果严重度值结合,建立上述模型;最后,以某区域的燃气管网为研究对象,验证该模型的有效性。结果表明:该模型能够综合时间因素以及突发事件对管网泄漏的影响,实现对管网泄漏风险的动态计算和可视化显示。
To effectively evaluate and timely control the leakage risk of urban gas pipeline,the paper was aimed at building a dynamic risk model based on BN and GIS technology. A fault tree( FT) model was built initially to analyze the leakage accident systematically,subsequently the FT model was mapped into a BN considering the dynamism of service time and human interference to calculate dynamic probabilities of gas pipeline leakage. In addition,the severity of the consequence of the gas pipeline leakage was assigned automatically by the GIS spatial analysis. Finally,a dynamic risk model of urban gas pipeline was built by combining dynamic probabilities and severity of leakage,and the effectiveness of the model was also validated through a case study of the gas pipeline system in a certain area. The results illustrate that this model can calculate and visualize the risk of gas pipeline leakage dynamically considering the effects of both time and emergency events on the leakage.
To effectively evaluate and timely control the leakage risk of urban gas pipeline,the paper was aimed at building a dynamic risk model based on BN and GIS technology. A fault tree( FT) model was built initially to analyze the leakage accident systematically,subsequently the FT model was mapped into a BN considering the dynamism of service time and human interference to calculate dynamic probabilities of gas pipeline leakage. In addition,the severity of the consequence of the gas pipeline leakage was assigned automatically by the GIS spatial analysis. Finally,a dynamic risk model of urban gas pipeline was built by combining dynamic probabilities and severity of leakage,and the effectiveness of the model was also validated through a case study of the gas pipeline system in a certain area. The results illustrate that this model can calculate and visualize the risk of gas pipeline leakage dynamically considering the effects of both time and emergency events on the leakage.
引文
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[2]钟少波,黄全义.城市智慧安全建设与应用初探[J].测绘科学,2014,39(8):83-87.ZHONG Shaobo,HUANG Quanyi.Preliminary exploration on city construction and application of smart safety[J].Science of Surveying and Mapping,2014,39(8):83-87.
[3]韩朱旸,翁文国.燃气管网定量风险分析方法综述[J].中国安全科学学报,2009,19(7):154-164.HAN Zhuyang,WENG Wenguo.A verview of quantitative risk analysis methods for natural gas pipeline[J].China Safety Science Journal,2009,19(7):154-164.
[4]王春雪,吕淑然.城市燃气管道泄漏致灾混合概率风险评估研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2016,26(12):146-151.WANG Chunxue,LYU Shuran.Mixture probabilistic model based assessment of risk of disaster induced byurban gas pipeline leakage[J].China Safety Science Journal,2016,26(12):146-151.
[5]廖柯熹,姚安林,张淮鑫.天然气管线失效故障树分析[J].天然气工业,2001,21(2):94-96.LIAO Kexi,YAO Anlin,ZHANG Huaixin.Fault tree analysis of natural gas pipeline failure[J].Natural Gas Industry,2001,21(2):94-96.
[6]KHAKZAD N,KHAN F,AMYOTTE P.Dynamic safety analysis of process systems by mapping bow-tie into Bayesian network[J].Process Safety and Environmental Protection,2013,91(1/2):46-53.
[7]YANG Yongsheng,KHAN F,THODI P,et al.Corrosion induced failure analysis of subsea pipelines[J].Reliability Engineering&System Safety,2017,159(3):214-222.
[8]张继旺,马庆春,张来斌.基于FTA-BN模型的城市燃气管道失效风险分析[J].北京石油化工学院学报,2014,22(3):32-36.ZHANG Jiwang,MA Qingchun,ZHANG Laibin.The risk analysis of city gas pipeline failure based on FTA-BN model[J].Journal of Beijing Institute of Petro-Chemical Technology,2014,22(3):32-36.
[9]欧国敏,王泽根,席明军.基于GIS的城市燃气管网风险评价[J].测绘,2015,38(2):61-65.OU Guomin,WANG Zegen,XI Mingjun.Risk assessment of city gas pipeline based on GIS[J].Surveying and Mapping,2015,38(2):61-65.
[10]尹贻林,林广利,付聪,等.基于GIS天津市燃气管网预警系统的构建研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2009,19(6):104-108.YIN Yilin,LIN Guangli,FU Cong,et al.Study on the building of the gas pipeline network early warning systemin Tianjin based on GIS[J].China Safety Science Journal,2009,19(6):104-108.
[11]European Gas Pipeline Incident Data Group.7threport of the European gas pipeline incident data group[R],2008.
[12]王海秋,张昌兴,李双林,等.油气管道腐蚀失效概率统计及预测模型[J].油气田地面工程,2007,26(4):14-14.WANG Haiqiu,ZHANG Changxing,LI Shuanglin,et al.Failure probability statisticsand prediction models of oil and gas pipeline corrosion[J].Oil-Gasfield Surface Engineering,2007,26(4):14-14.
[13]张占奎.油气管道腐蚀失效预测及安全可靠性评估研究[D].天津:天津大学,2006.ZHANG Zhankui.Study on corrosion failure prediction and reliability evaluation of oil transmission pipeline[D].Tianjin:Tianjin University,2006.
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