基于变形控制标准的高土石坝地震可靠度分析

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英文篇名：Seismic reliability analysis of high earth-rockfill dams based on deformation control criteria 作者：吕小龙 ; 迟世春 英文作者：Lü Xiao-long;CHI Shi-chun;State Key Laboratory of Coastal and Offshore Engineering, Dalian University of Technology;Institute of Earthquake Engineering, Faculty of Infrastructure Engineering, Dalian University of Technology; 关键词：土石坝 ; 地震可靠度 ; 高斯过程响应面 ; 紫坪铺面板堆石坝 英文关键词：earth-rockfill dam;;seismic reliability;;Gauss process response surface;;Zipingpu CFRD 中文刊名：YTGC 英文刊名：Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering 机构：大连理工大学海岸与近海工程国家重点实验室;大连理工大学工程抗震研究所建设工程学部水利工程学院; 出版日期：2018-11-15 15:43 出版单位：岩土工程学报 年：2019 期：v.41;No.334 基金：国家自然科学基金项目(51379029);; 国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFB0201001) 语种：中文; 页：YTGC201903018 页数：7 CN：03 ISSN：32-1124/TU 分类号：121-127

摘要

基于可靠度分析的设计方法是科学定量地研究和保证岩土工程安全性的重要手段之一。通过定量考察土石坝工程中的不确定性因素,综合评估地震失效概率,可为高土石坝抗震设计和风险评估提供参考。以坝顶震陷率作为地震安全控制指标,提出了同时考虑地震和筑坝料参数不确定性的高土石坝地震可靠度分析方法。首先,采用地震烈度作为地震危险性的宏观衡量尺度,通过引入地震烈度概率模型,将基于概率烈度的地震动峰值作为地震强度因子,调整规范谱人工地震波的幅值进行动力有限元计算。然后,采用适用于处理小样本和非线性问题的高斯过程响应面法,建立筑坝料参数与坝顶震陷率之间的非线性映射关系,结合蒙特卡罗法计算高土石坝地震失效概率。最后,以紫坪铺面板堆石坝为例,应用该方法考察了设计基准期内的地震失效概率。
        The reliability-based design(RBD) is one of the most crucial measures to study and guarantee geotechnical engineering safety. Through quantitative analysis of uncertainty in earth-rockfill dam engineering, the failure probability can be evaluated and may provide a reference basis for the seismic performance design and safety risk assessment. By selecting the crest seismic settlement ratio as the seismic safety index, the seismic reliability analysis of high earth-rockfill dams, which incorporates the uncertainty of earthquakes and dam material parameters, is proposed. First, based on the seismic intensity probability model, the seismic acceleration corresponding to the earthquake intensity occurrence probability is used as the earthquake intensity factor. The artificially generated seismic waves are adjusted for finite element calculations. Then, the Gaussian process regression(GPR) model, which is capable of solving the highly nonlinear regression problem with small samples, is used to establish the nonlinear mapping relation between material parameters and crest settlement ratio. The Monte-Carlo simulation method is employed to calculate seismic failure probability. For verification, the proposed method is employed to calculate the seismic failure probability of Zipingpu concrete face rockfill dam.

引文

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