昆明市雨季短时强降水特征分析及预报研究
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摘要
利用1981—2015年昆明市逐时降水观测及短时强降水个例期间的探空、雷达、地面观测等资料,分析了昆明市雨季短时强降水时间分布、关键影响系统、物理量及雷达观测特征,尝试寻找该类天气的预报着眼点.结果表明:①昆明短时强降水天气具有明显的日内变化特征.短时强降水主要出现在19:00—次日05:00,并在次日02:00达到峰值.②地面辐合线和700 hPa切变线是昆明出现短时强降水的关键影响系统,当500 hPa有低压槽或高压间辐合区配合时则更有利于昆明出现短时强降水.③从物理量指标看, 700 hPa比湿大于10.0 g·kg~(-1)、温度露点差≤3℃、假相当温度≥75℃和沙氏指数<0.1是昆明站出现短时强降水天气的有利条件.④当雷达观测图上出现积云、块状回波,回波反射率因子强度最大值达40～45 dBz且大值区质心较低,回波顶高小于8 km,对应的径向速度图出现中尺度辐合或低空急流特征时,应该考虑发布短时强降水预警.
Based on the data of hourly rainfall, sounding, radar and ground observation of short-time heavy rainfall cases that occurred in Kunming during 1981—2015, the temporal distribution, critical influencing systems,physical quantity and radar observation characteristics of short-time heavy rainfall in rainy season were analyzed.The results indicated that the short-time heavy rainfall in Kunming has a distinct hourly change. A special period from 19:00 to 05:00 the next morning witnesses the continual short-time heavy rainfall, with its peak at 02:00. The convergence line on the ground and the shear line on 700 hPa are the key influencing systems of short-time heavy rainfall in Kunming. When 500 hPa was accompanied by the low pressure trough or high pressure convergence zone, the synoptic situation would easily lead to the short-time heavy rainfall in Kunming. These physical conditions are most conducive to the short-time heavy rainfall: on 700 hPa, the specific humidity greater than 10.0 g·kg-1, the dew-point spread less than 3 degrees centigrade, the pseudo-equivalent temperature equal to 75 degrees centigrade and the SI index less than 0.1. On the other hand, the following radar observation features are the early warning index of short-time heavy rainfall: they are the cumulus and massive radar echo with 40 —45 dBz maximum value, the lower center and top height less than 8 km, the corresponding radial velocity with meso-scale convergence or low altitude jet characteristics.
Based on the data of hourly rainfall, sounding, radar and ground observation of short-time heavy rainfall cases that occurred in Kunming during 1981—2015, the temporal distribution, critical influencing systems,physical quantity and radar observation characteristics of short-time heavy rainfall in rainy season were analyzed.The results indicated that the short-time heavy rainfall in Kunming has a distinct hourly change. A special period from 19:00 to 05:00 the next morning witnesses the continual short-time heavy rainfall, with its peak at 02:00. The convergence line on the ground and the shear line on 700 hPa are the key influencing systems of short-time heavy rainfall in Kunming. When 500 hPa was accompanied by the low pressure trough or high pressure convergence zone, the synoptic situation would easily lead to the short-time heavy rainfall in Kunming. These physical conditions are most conducive to the short-time heavy rainfall: on 700 hPa, the specific humidity greater than 10.0 g·kg-1, the dew-point spread less than 3 degrees centigrade, the pseudo-equivalent temperature equal to 75 degrees centigrade and the SI index less than 0.1. On the other hand, the following radar observation features are the early warning index of short-time heavy rainfall: they are the cumulus and massive radar echo with 40 —45 dBz maximum value, the lower center and top height less than 8 km, the corresponding radial velocity with meso-scale convergence or low altitude jet characteristics.
引文
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[14]田付友,郑永光,张涛,等.短时强降水诊断物理量敏感性的点对面检验[J].应用气象学报,2015,26(4):385-396.Tian F Y,Zheng Y G,Zhang T,et al.Sensitivity analysis of short-duration heavy rainfall related diagnostic parameters with point-area verification[J].Journal of Applied Meteorological Science,2015,26(4):385-396.
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[16]沈澄,孙燕,魏晓奕,等.基于物理量参数的江苏短时强降水预报模型的研究[J].气象,2016,42(5):557-566.Shen C,Sun Y,Wei X Y,et al.Research of flashheavy-rain forecast model in Jiangsu based on physical parameters[J].Meteorological Monthly,2016,42(5):557-566.
[17]许美玲,尹丽云,金少华,等.云南突发性特大暴雨过程成因分析[J].高原气象,2013,32(4):1 062-1 073.Xu M L,Yin L Y,Jin S H,et al.Analysis on formation reason of sudden torrential rainstorm in Yunnan Province[J].Plateau Meteorology,2013,32(4):1 062-1 073.
[18]杨芳园,杨素雨,周稀,等.昆明“2016.4.19”雷暴大风天气过程的中尺度特征分析[J].云南大学学报:自然科学版,2018,40(4):716-725.Yang F Y,Yang S Y,Zhou X,et al.An analysis of mesoscale characteristics of thunderstorm gale in Kunming on 19 April 2016[J].Journal of Yunnan University:Natural Sciences Edition,2018,40(4):716-725.
[2]Chen C S,Chen Y L,Liu C L,et al.Statistics of heavy rainfall occurrences in Taiwan[J].Wea Forecasting,2007,22:981-1 002.
[3]符娇兰,林祥,钱维宏.中国夏季分级雨日的时空特征[J].热带气象学报,2008,24(4):367-373.Fu J L,Lin X,Qian W H.The temporal and spatial characteristics of graded summer rain days over China[J].Journal of Tropical Meteorology,2008,24(4):367-373.
[4]李建,宇如聪,王建捷.北京市夏季降水时日变化特征[J].科学通报,2008,53(7):829-832.Li J,Yu R C,Wang J J.The diurnal variation characteristics of summer precipitation in Beijing[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,2008,53(7):829-832.
[5]彭芳,吴古会,杜小玲.贵州省汛期短时降水时空特征分析[J].气象,2012,38(3):307-313.Peng F,Wu G H,Du X L.Spatio-temporal characteristics of short-time strong precipitation in Guizhou Province[J].Meteorological Monthly,2012,38(3):307-313.
[6]王夫常,宇如聪,陈昊明,等.我国西南部降水日变化特征分析[J].暴雨灾害,2011,30(2):117-121.Wang F C,Yu R C,Chen H M,et al.The characteristics of rainfall diurnal variation over the Southwest China[J].Torrential Rain and Disasters,2011,30(2):117-121.
[7]唐红玉,顾建峰,俞胜宾,等.西南地区降水日变化特征分析[J].高原气象,2011,30(2):376-384.Tang H Y,Gu J F,Yu S B,et al.Analysis on diurnal variation of precipitation in Southwest China[J].Plateau Meteorology,2011,30(2):376-384.
[8]魏晓雯,梁萍,何金海.上海地区不同类型短时强降水的大尺度环境背景特征分析[J].气象与环境科学,2016,39(2):69-75.Wei X W,Liang P,He J H.Characteristics analysis of large-scale circulation background for different kinds of short-time heavy rainfall in Shanghai[J].Meteorological and Environmental Science,2016,39(2):69-75.
[9]喻谦花,郑士林,吴蓁,等.局部大暴雨形成的机理和中尺度分析[J].气象,2016,42(6):686-695.Yu Q H,Zheng S L,Wu Z,et al.The forming mechanism and mesoscale analysis of local heavy rainfall[J].Meteorological Monthly,2016,42(6):686-695.
[10]王囝囝,黄振,邹善勇,等.大连地区短时强降水天气特征及预报指标研究[J].气象与环境学报,2016,32(4):32-38.Wang J J,Huang Z,Zou S Y,et al.Synoptic characteristics and prediction index of short-time strong precipitation in Dalian[J].Journal of Meteorological and Environmental,2016,32(4):32-38.
[11]陈小华,李华宏,何钰,等.2015年9月15日-16日华坪及昌宁大暴雨中尺度特征分析[J].云南大学学报:自然科学版,2017,39(2):225-234.Chen X H,Li H H,He Y,et al.An analysis on the characteristics of an extreme torrential rain in Huaping and Changning on 15-16 September 2015[J].Journal of Yunnan University:Natural Sciences Edition,2017,39(2):225-234.
[12]张思豆,张腾飞,曹杰.云南2次西行台风暴雨过程数值模拟及诊断分析[J].云南大学学报:自然科学版,2017,39(6):1 012-1 022.Zhang S D,Zhang T F,Cao J.A numerical simulation and diagnostic analysis of two westward typhoon rainstorm process in Yunnan[J].Journal of Yunnan University:Natural Sciences Edition,2017,39(6):1 012-1 022.
[13]张亚男,段旭.2008年初昆明准静止锋生消及移动成因分析[J].云南大学学报:自然科学版,2018,40(1):113-124.Zhang Y N,Duan X.On the causes of frontogenesis,frontolysis and movement of Kunming Quasi-Stationary Front in early 2008[J].Journal of Yunnan University:Natural Sciences Edition,2018,40(1):113-124.
[14]田付友,郑永光,张涛,等.短时强降水诊断物理量敏感性的点对面检验[J].应用气象学报,2015,26(4):385-396.Tian F Y,Zheng Y G,Zhang T,et al.Sensitivity analysis of short-duration heavy rainfall related diagnostic parameters with point-area verification[J].Journal of Applied Meteorological Science,2015,26(4):385-396.
[15]曾明剑,王桂臣,吴海英,等.基于中尺度数值模式的分类强对流天气预报方法研究[J].气象学报,2015,73(5):868-882.Zeng M J,Wang G C,Wu H Y,et al.Study of the forecasting method for the classified severe convection weather based on a meso-scale numerical model[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2015,73(5):868-882.
[16]沈澄,孙燕,魏晓奕,等.基于物理量参数的江苏短时强降水预报模型的研究[J].气象,2016,42(5):557-566.Shen C,Sun Y,Wei X Y,et al.Research of flashheavy-rain forecast model in Jiangsu based on physical parameters[J].Meteorological Monthly,2016,42(5):557-566.
[17]许美玲,尹丽云,金少华,等.云南突发性特大暴雨过程成因分析[J].高原气象,2013,32(4):1 062-1 073.Xu M L,Yin L Y,Jin S H,et al.Analysis on formation reason of sudden torrential rainstorm in Yunnan Province[J].Plateau Meteorology,2013,32(4):1 062-1 073.
[18]杨芳园,杨素雨,周稀,等.昆明“2016.4.19”雷暴大风天气过程的中尺度特征分析[J].云南大学学报:自然科学版,2018,40(4):716-725.Yang F Y,Yang S Y,Zhou X,et al.An analysis of mesoscale characteristics of thunderstorm gale in Kunming on 19 April 2016[J].Journal of Yunnan University:Natural Sciences Edition,2018,40(4):716-725.
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