技术创新影响产业结构的空间传导路径分析
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摘要
在理论分析技术创新影响产业结构优化升级路径的基础上,构建技术创新评价指标,引入3种不同类型空间权重,选取2000—2015年我国30个省级面板数据进行空间杜宾模型实证检验。研究结果表明:技术创新不仅促进本地产业结构优化,还有助于邻近地区合理化发展,但对邻近地区高级化的抑制作用和促进作用并存;省域间技术创新和产业结构具有显著空间相关性,产业结构高级化存在正向溢出效应而产业结构合理化存在负向溢出效应;技术创新能够通过一个直接路径和空间效应形成的3个间接路径作用于本地及其他地区产业结构;技术创新对产业结构的作用方向和强度存在较大区域差异。据此,提出加强技术创新、提升产业结构的"先富带后富"是可以通过政策引导实现的。
Based on the theoretical analysis of the influence of technological innovation on the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure, this paper constructs the evaluation index of technological innovation, introduces three different types of spatial weights, and selects 30 provincial panel data from 2000 to 2015 of China to carry out the empirical test of spatial Dubin model. The results show that the technological innovation not only promotes the optimization of the local industrial structure but also contributes to the rationalization and development of the adjacent areas, but the inhibiting effect and the promoting effect on the high-level of the adjacent area are co-exist; there is a significant spatial correlation between technological innovation and industrial structure between provinces, a positive spillover effect in the upgrading of industrial structure and a negative spillover effect in the rationalization of industrial structure; the technology innovation can be applied to the industrial structure of the local and other regions through three indirect paths formed by a direct path and a spatial effect; there are great regional differences in the direction and intensity of technological innovation on industrial structure. On the basis of this, the paper puts forward that the "firstrich and post-rich" of strengthening the technological innovation and improving the industrial structure can be realized through the policy guidance.
Based on the theoretical analysis of the influence of technological innovation on the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure, this paper constructs the evaluation index of technological innovation, introduces three different types of spatial weights, and selects 30 provincial panel data from 2000 to 2015 of China to carry out the empirical test of spatial Dubin model. The results show that the technological innovation not only promotes the optimization of the local industrial structure but also contributes to the rationalization and development of the adjacent areas, but the inhibiting effect and the promoting effect on the high-level of the adjacent area are co-exist; there is a significant spatial correlation between technological innovation and industrial structure between provinces, a positive spillover effect in the upgrading of industrial structure and a negative spillover effect in the rationalization of industrial structure; the technology innovation can be applied to the industrial structure of the local and other regions through three indirect paths formed by a direct path and a spatial effect; there are great regional differences in the direction and intensity of technological innovation on industrial structure. On the basis of this, the paper puts forward that the "firstrich and post-rich" of strengthening the technological innovation and improving the industrial structure can be realized through the policy guidance.
引文
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[23]李翔,白洋,邓峰.基于两阶段的区域创新与产业结构优化研究[J].科技管理研究,2018(1):103-111.
[24]陶长琪,彭永樟.经济集聚下技术创新强度对产业结构升级的空间效应分析[J].产业经济研究,2017(3):91-103.
[25]高素英,钦彦祥,张烨.创新投入影响产业结构优化升级路径分析:基于本地效应与多元空间溢出效应[J].科技进步与对策,2017(19):60-67.
[26]林春艳,孔凡超.技术创新、模仿创新及技术引进与产业结构转型升级:基于动态空间Durbin模型的研究[J].宏观经济研究,2016(5):106-118.
[27]颜双波.基于熵值法的区域经济增长质量评价[J].统计与决策,2017(21):142-145.
[28]邓若冰,刘颜.工业集聚、空间溢出与区域经济增长:基于空间面板杜宾模型的研究[J].经济问题探索,2016(1):66-76.
[29]LeSAGE J P,PACE R K.Introduction to spatial econometric[M].New York:CRC Press(Taylor and Francis Group),2009.
[2]ARTHUR W B.Competing technologies,increasing returns and lockin by historical events[J].Economic Journal,1989,99(394):116-131.
[3]TILMAN A,HUBERT S,ANDREA SS.Breakthrough?China's and India's transition from production to Innovation[J].World Development,2008,36(2):325-344.
[4]DESMET K,ROSSIH E.Spatial development[J].American Economic Review,2014,104(4):1211-1243.
[5]龚轶,顾高翔,刘昌新,等.技术创新推动下的中国产业结构进化[J].科学学研究,2013(8):1252-1259.
[6]付宏,毛蕴诗,宋来胜.创新对产业结构高级化影响的实证研究:基于2000-2011年的省际面板数据[J].中国工业经济,2013(9):56-68.
[7]薛继亮.技术选择与产业结构转型升级[J].产业经济研究,2013(6):29-37.
[8]蔡玉蓉,汪慧玲.创新投入对产业结构升级的影响机制研究:基于分位数回归的分析[J].经济问题探索,2018(1):138-146.
[9]李伟庆,聂献忠.产业升级与自主创新:机理分析与实证研究[J].科学学研究,2015(7):1008-1016.
[10]李政,杨思颖.创新投入、产业结构与经济增长[J].求是学刊,2015(4):61-67.
[11]De CHEZLEPRE A,GLACHANT M,HASCIC I,et al.Invention and transfer of climate change:mitigation technologies:a global analysis[J].Review of Environmental Economics and Policy,2011,5(1):109-130.
[12]王铮,韩钰,胡敏,等.面向全球经济治理的世界地缘政治经济结构探析[J].中国科学院院刊,2015(6):824-838.
[13]KWAKKELJ H,CARLEY S,CHASE J,et al.Visualizing geo-spatial data in science,technology and innovation[J].Technological Forecasting and Social Change,2014,81:67-81.
[14]李婧,谭清美,白俊红.中国区域创新生产的空间计量分析:基于静态与动态空间面板模型的实证研究[J].管理世界,2010(7):43-55,65.
[15]郭炬,叶阿忠,陈泓.基于半参数空间计量模型的技术创新能力区域聚集效应研究[J].科学学与科学技术管理,2012(11):62-70.
[16]张文武,熊俊.外资集聚、技术创新与地区经济增长:基于省级面板数据的空间计量分析[J].华东经济管理,2013(7):48-53.
[17]梁炜.提升中国经济增长质量的创新扩散机制研究[J].开发研究,2016(2):58-63.
[18]马永红,李玲,王展昭,等.复杂网络下产业转移与区域技术创新扩散影响关系研究:以技术类型为调节变量[J].科技进步与对策,2016(18):35-41.
[19]LIU J,HU X,WU J.Fiscal decentralization,financial efficiency and upgrading the industrial structure:an empirical analysis of a spatial heterogeneity model[J].Journal of Applied Statistics,2017,44(1):181-196.
[20]徐敏,姜勇.中国产业结构升级能缩小城乡消费差距吗?[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2015(3):3-21.
[21]赵云鹏,叶娇.对外直接投资对中国产业结构影响研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2018(3):78-95.
[22]李学兰,王海元.产业结构升级提升了城市生产率吗?:基于空间计量模型的实证检验[J].云南财经大学学报,2017(2):140-150.
[23]李翔,白洋,邓峰.基于两阶段的区域创新与产业结构优化研究[J].科技管理研究,2018(1):103-111.
[24]陶长琪,彭永樟.经济集聚下技术创新强度对产业结构升级的空间效应分析[J].产业经济研究,2017(3):91-103.
[25]高素英,钦彦祥,张烨.创新投入影响产业结构优化升级路径分析:基于本地效应与多元空间溢出效应[J].科技进步与对策,2017(19):60-67.
[26]林春艳,孔凡超.技术创新、模仿创新及技术引进与产业结构转型升级:基于动态空间Durbin模型的研究[J].宏观经济研究,2016(5):106-118.
[27]颜双波.基于熵值法的区域经济增长质量评价[J].统计与决策,2017(21):142-145.
[28]邓若冰,刘颜.工业集聚、空间溢出与区域经济增长:基于空间面板杜宾模型的研究[J].经济问题探索,2016(1):66-76.
[29]LeSAGE J P,PACE R K.Introduction to spatial econometric[M].New York:CRC Press(Taylor and Francis Group),2009.