农业气象台站玉米生育期的填补及对比分析
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摘要
农业气象台站记录的作物生育时期数据,广泛用于科研和生产活动,但是该数据集有较多生育时期缺失。为了高效、充分地利用已有生育时期,急需研究生育期填补方法,并分析与其他生育期数据的差异。本研究以黄淮海夏玉米区为例,结合历史气象数据,分析农业气象台站玉米关键生育阶段的积温比例,研究玉米缺失生育时期的填补方法;对比分析2002—2011年农业气象台站与国家玉米品种区域试验生育时期数据的差异。结果表明,本文提出的方法能有效地填补缺失生育时期,方法的均方根误差在1.82～5.20之间;除2006年、2007年以外,其余年份50%以上的农业气象台站数据与国家玉米区域试验生育期一致性好;就多年数据的平均水平而言,黄淮海夏玉米区内大部分农业气象台站与国家玉米区域试验生育期差异较小,约占农气台站总数的53%。该方法可广泛应用于其他玉米种植区、农作物的生育期数据填补和对比,为相关研究提供生育期数据选取、融合的参考。
Accurate data of growth period are the basis for crop growth and production process information service. The crop growth period data recorded by agricultural meteorological include a lot of growth stage period information missing. Taking the Huang-Huai-Hai summer maize area as an example, this study calculated the accumulated temperature distribution ratio combining with the daily average temperature, and filled the information of the missing stage from 2002 to 2011.Ultimately this method filled the original growth period data of 13.8%, and the error of filling method was characterized. The results demonstrated that the errors in different growth stages were inconsistent, of which the error in milky maturity stage and maturity stage was the largest. In order to compare the difference between the growth period data of agricultural meteorological stations and the national maize regional test data, a variety of interpolation methods were applied to the two sets of data. By comparing MAE(Mean Absolute Error) and RMSE(Root Mean Square Error), we chosen the Ordinary Kriging method. We compared the interpolated insults and defined difference values between [0, 5] indicating a small difference, large difference at(5, 10], and extremely difference at(10, +∞). Our result shows that, with the exception of 2006 and 2007, the majority of the two sets growth period data difference are limited, in which the difference between the two sets of growth period data was the least appeared in 2003, 2005. The difference between the two sets of growth period data was the largest in 2006. In terms of average of multiple years, there is not a significant difference in most parts of the study area, accounting for 53% of the total number of the agricultural meteorological stations. This study can be used in the filling and comparison of growth stages data in other maize growing areas or other crops.
Accurate data of growth period are the basis for crop growth and production process information service. The crop growth period data recorded by agricultural meteorological include a lot of growth stage period information missing. Taking the Huang-Huai-Hai summer maize area as an example, this study calculated the accumulated temperature distribution ratio combining with the daily average temperature, and filled the information of the missing stage from 2002 to 2011.Ultimately this method filled the original growth period data of 13.8%, and the error of filling method was characterized. The results demonstrated that the errors in different growth stages were inconsistent, of which the error in milky maturity stage and maturity stage was the largest. In order to compare the difference between the growth period data of agricultural meteorological stations and the national maize regional test data, a variety of interpolation methods were applied to the two sets of data. By comparing MAE(Mean Absolute Error) and RMSE(Root Mean Square Error), we chosen the Ordinary Kriging method. We compared the interpolated insults and defined difference values between [0, 5] indicating a small difference, large difference at(5, 10], and extremely difference at(10, +∞). Our result shows that, with the exception of 2006 and 2007, the majority of the two sets growth period data difference are limited, in which the difference between the two sets of growth period data was the least appeared in 2003, 2005. The difference between the two sets of growth period data was the largest in 2006. In terms of average of multiple years, there is not a significant difference in most parts of the study area, accounting for 53% of the total number of the agricultural meteorological stations. This study can be used in the filling and comparison of growth stages data in other maize growing areas or other crops.
引文
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[14]殷新佑.对预测作物发育的积温法的评价[J].作物学报,1999,25(4):474-482.[Yin X Y.A critical appraisal of thermal time approach for predicting crop development[J].Acta Agronomica Sinica,1999,25(4):474-482.]
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[18]国家气象信息中心.中国地面气候资料日值数据集(V3.0)[EB/OL].(2017-12-30)[2018-01-31].http://data.cma.cn/data/cdcdet-ail/dataCode/SURF_CLI_CHN_MUL_DAY_V3.0.html.[National Meteorological Information Center.Daily Ground Climate Data Set in China(V3.0)[EB/OL].(2012-11-22)[2018-01-31].http://data.cma.cn/data/cdcdetail/data Code/SURF_CLI_CHN_MUL_DAY_V3.0.html.]
[19]刘湘南,黄方,王平.GIS空间分析原理与方法[M].北京:科学出版社,2008.[Liu X N,Huang F,Wang Y.GIS Spatial Analysis Principles and Methods[M].Beijing:Science Press,2008.]
[20]李荣平,周广胜,王笑影,等.不同物候模型对东北地区作物发育期模拟对比分析[J].气象与环境学报,2012,28(3):25-30.[Li R P,Zhou G S,Wang X Y,et al.Comparative analysis of simulation on crop development stage using different phonological models in Northeast China[J].Journal of Meteorology and Environment,2012,28(3):25-30.]
[21]李超,李文峰,钱晔.热带区域冬玉米物候发育的模拟与模型检验[J].中国农学通报,2015,31(24):53-58.[Li C,Li W F,Qian Y.Modeling and validating of winter maize phenological development in tropical region[J].Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,2015,31(24):53-58.]
[22]石淑芹,陈佑启,李正国,等.基于空间插值分析的指标空间化及吉林省玉米种植区划研究[J].地理科学,2011,31(4):408-414.[Shi S Q,Chen Y Q,Li Z G,et al.Spatial simulation of indices based on spatial interpolation technique and regional planning for planting maize in Jilin Province[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2011,31(4):408-414.]
[23]Chai T,Draxler R R.Root mean square error(RMSE)or mean absolute error(MAE)[J].Geoscientific Model Development,2014,7(3):1247-1250.
[24]杨杨.玉米种植环境倒伏胁迫提取方法研究与应用[D].北京:中国农业大学,2012.[Yang Y.Research on Northeast China Spring Corn Environmental Regionalization and Trial Sites Layout[D].Beijing:China Agricultural University,2012.]
[25]汤国安,杨昕.ARCGIS地理信息系统空间分析实验教程[M].北京:科学出版社,2006.[Tang G A,Yang X.ARCGIS Spatial Analysis Experiment[M].Beijing:Science Press,2006.]
[26]朱蕾,黄敬峰.山区县域尺度降水量空间插值方法比较[J].农业工程学报,2007,23(7):80-85.[Zhu L,Huang J F.Comparison of spatial interpolation method for precipitation of mountain areas in county scale[J].Transactions of the CSAE,2007,23(7):80-85.]
[27]宋丽琼,田原,邬伦,等.日降水量的空间插值方法与应用对比分析-以深圳市为例[J].地球信息科学,2008,10(5):566-572.[Song L Q,Tian Y,Wu L,et al.On comparison of spatial interpolation methods of daily rainfall data:a case study of Shenzhen[J].Geo-Information Science,2008,10(5):566-572.]
[28]Maribeth Price,李玉龙,张怀东.ARCGIS地理信息系统教程[M].北京:电子工业出版社,2012.[Maribeth P,Li Y L,Zhang H D.ARCGIS Geographic Information System Tutorial[M].Beijing:Electronics Industry Press,2012.]
[29]尼尔·J·萨尔金德(著).史玲玲(译).爱上统计学[M].重庆:重庆大学出版社,2011.[Salkind N J(Write).Shi L L(Translate).Fall in Love With Statistics[M].Chongqing:Chongqing University Press,2011.]
[30]高惠璇.应用多元统计分析[M].北京:北京大学出版社,2005.[Gao H X.Multivariate Statistical Analysis[M].Beijing:Peking University Press,2005.]
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[2]刘哲,刘玮,昝糈莉,等.基于多年环境特征的东北春玉米时空型种植区划研究[J].农业机械学报,2017,48(6):1-9.[Liu Z,Liu W,Zan X L,et al.Research on several years environmental characteristics of temporal and spatial planting regionalization description-a case study in northeast spring maize[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2017,48(6):1-9.]
[3]王思嘉.玉米品种多环境测试站点的布局方法研究-以吉林省为例[D].北京:中国农业大学,2015.[Wang S J.Spatial Distribution of Multi-Environment Trial Station for Maize Varieties-a Case Study of Jilin Province[D].Beijing:China Agricultural University,2015.]
[4]Setiyono T D,Weiss A,Specht J,et al.Understanding and modeling the effect of temperature and daylength on soybean phenology under high-yield conditions[J].Field Crops Research,2007,100(2-3):257-271.
[5]翟治芬,胡玮,严昌荣,等.中国玉米生育期变化及其影响因子研究[J].中国农业科学,2012,45(22):4587-4603.[Zhai Z F,Hu W,Yan C R,et al.Change of maize growth period and its impact factor in China[J].Scientia Agricultura Sinica,2012,45(22):4587-4603.]
[6]李自学.玉米育种与种子生产[M].北京:中国农业科学技术出版社,2010.[Li Z X.Maize Breeding and Seed Production[M].Beijing:China Agricultural Science and Technology Press,2010.]
[7]李青松,方华,郭玉伟,等.春播玉米品种熟期类型划分研究[J].河北农业科学,2010,14(9):8-11.[Li Q S,Fang H,Guo YW,et al.Study on mature type classification of spring maize varieties[J].Journal of Hebei Agricultural Sciences,2010,14(9):8-11.]
[8]徐成忠,董兴玉,杨洪宾,等.积温变迁对夏玉米冬小麦两熟制播期的影响[J].山东农业科学,2009,(2):34-37.[Xu C Z,Dong X Y,Yang H B,et al.Effect of accumulative temperature changes on maturation duration of summer maize with double ripening[J].Shandong Academy of Agricultural Sciences,2009,(2):34-37.]
[9]孙孟梅,姜丽霞,于荣环,等.玉米生育期热量指标及其不同品种栽培北界的研究[J].中国农业气象,1998,19(4):8-12.[Sun M M,Jiang L X,Yu R H,et al.Study on heat index at growing stages of corn and the planting border of different varieties in the North[J].Agricultural Meteorology,1998,19(4):8-12.]
[10]李有,董中强,宋贤明.积温学说的不稳定性和修正式的评价[J].华北农学报,1993,(S1):93-96.[Li Y,Dong Z Q,Song X M.The destability of the accumulated temperature theory and the evaluation for its modified models[J].Acta Agriculturae Boreali Sinica,1993,(S1):93-96.]
[11]肖静,李楠,姜会飞.作物发育期积温计算方法及其稳定性[J].气象研究与应用,2010,32(2):64-67.[Xiao J,Li N,Jiang H F.Calculation and stability of accumulated temperatures in the growing season of winter wheat[J].Journal of Meteorological Research and Application,2010,32(2):64-67.]
[12]沈国权.影响作物发育速度的非线性温度模式[J].气象,1980,6(6):9-11.[Shen G Q.Nonlinear temperature modes affecting the growth of crops[J].Meteorology,1980,6(6):9-11.]
[13]韩永庄.戈配兹模型在生物积温预报中的应用[J].安徽农学通报,2013,(23):11-12.[Han Y Z.Application of Geodz model in prediction of bio-accumulated temperature[J].Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences,2013,(23):11-12.]
[14]殷新佑.对预测作物发育的积温法的评价[J].作物学报,1999,25(4):474-482.[Yin X Y.A critical appraisal of thermal time approach for predicting crop development[J].Acta Agronomica Sinica,1999,25(4):474-482.]
[15]农业部种植业管理司组.中国玉米品质区划及产业布局[M].北京:中国农业出版社,2005.[Division of Planting Management,Ministry of Agriculture.Division of Quality of Maize and Industrial Distribution in China[M].Beijing:China Agriculture Press,2005.]
[16]李少昆,石洁,崔彦宏,等.黄淮海夏玉米田间种植手册[M].北京:中国农业出版社,2011.[Li S K,Shi J,Cui Y H,et al.Huanghuaihai Summer Maize Field Planting Manual[M].Beijing:China Agriculture Press,2011.]
[17]国家气象信息中心.中国农作物生长发育和土壤湿度旬值数据集[EB/OL].(2013-12-30)[2018-01-31].http://data.cma.cn/data/cdcdetail/dataCode/AGME_AB2_CHN_TEN.html.[National Meteorological Information Center.Crop Growth and Soil Moisture Data Set in China[EB/OL].(2012-11-22)[2018-01-31].http://data.cma.cn/data/cdcdetail/dataCode/AGME_AB2_CHN_TEN.html.]
[18]国家气象信息中心.中国地面气候资料日值数据集(V3.0)[EB/OL].(2017-12-30)[2018-01-31].http://data.cma.cn/data/cdcdet-ail/dataCode/SURF_CLI_CHN_MUL_DAY_V3.0.html.[National Meteorological Information Center.Daily Ground Climate Data Set in China(V3.0)[EB/OL].(2012-11-22)[2018-01-31].http://data.cma.cn/data/cdcdetail/data Code/SURF_CLI_CHN_MUL_DAY_V3.0.html.]
[19]刘湘南,黄方,王平.GIS空间分析原理与方法[M].北京:科学出版社,2008.[Liu X N,Huang F,Wang Y.GIS Spatial Analysis Principles and Methods[M].Beijing:Science Press,2008.]
[20]李荣平,周广胜,王笑影,等.不同物候模型对东北地区作物发育期模拟对比分析[J].气象与环境学报,2012,28(3):25-30.[Li R P,Zhou G S,Wang X Y,et al.Comparative analysis of simulation on crop development stage using different phonological models in Northeast China[J].Journal of Meteorology and Environment,2012,28(3):25-30.]
[21]李超,李文峰,钱晔.热带区域冬玉米物候发育的模拟与模型检验[J].中国农学通报,2015,31(24):53-58.[Li C,Li W F,Qian Y.Modeling and validating of winter maize phenological development in tropical region[J].Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,2015,31(24):53-58.]
[22]石淑芹,陈佑启,李正国,等.基于空间插值分析的指标空间化及吉林省玉米种植区划研究[J].地理科学,2011,31(4):408-414.[Shi S Q,Chen Y Q,Li Z G,et al.Spatial simulation of indices based on spatial interpolation technique and regional planning for planting maize in Jilin Province[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2011,31(4):408-414.]
[23]Chai T,Draxler R R.Root mean square error(RMSE)or mean absolute error(MAE)[J].Geoscientific Model Development,2014,7(3):1247-1250.
[24]杨杨.玉米种植环境倒伏胁迫提取方法研究与应用[D].北京:中国农业大学,2012.[Yang Y.Research on Northeast China Spring Corn Environmental Regionalization and Trial Sites Layout[D].Beijing:China Agricultural University,2012.]
[25]汤国安,杨昕.ARCGIS地理信息系统空间分析实验教程[M].北京:科学出版社,2006.[Tang G A,Yang X.ARCGIS Spatial Analysis Experiment[M].Beijing:Science Press,2006.]
[26]朱蕾,黄敬峰.山区县域尺度降水量空间插值方法比较[J].农业工程学报,2007,23(7):80-85.[Zhu L,Huang J F.Comparison of spatial interpolation method for precipitation of mountain areas in county scale[J].Transactions of the CSAE,2007,23(7):80-85.]
[27]宋丽琼,田原,邬伦,等.日降水量的空间插值方法与应用对比分析-以深圳市为例[J].地球信息科学,2008,10(5):566-572.[Song L Q,Tian Y,Wu L,et al.On comparison of spatial interpolation methods of daily rainfall data:a case study of Shenzhen[J].Geo-Information Science,2008,10(5):566-572.]
[28]Maribeth Price,李玉龙,张怀东.ARCGIS地理信息系统教程[M].北京:电子工业出版社,2012.[Maribeth P,Li Y L,Zhang H D.ARCGIS Geographic Information System Tutorial[M].Beijing:Electronics Industry Press,2012.]
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